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00:00 Hello and welcome to BQ Prima. Very good afternoon to all the viewers. I am Hiral Dadia. Clearly,
00:05 the markets are marching towards the 20,000 level in trade today. Now, whether we will hit that
00:10 20,000 mark or not is something that everyone is watching, waiting and watching. We're just around
00:16 10 to 15 points away from those 20,000 levels. And the highest is 99.97, what Nifty 50 has hit
00:25 so far. In fact, interesting moves coming in in terms of Bank Nifty as well. 46238.35 is the high
00:32 in today's session in terms of Bank Nifty. So clearly, in the last one and a half hour of trade,
00:37 we've seen that mega up move that has come in, in terms of where markets are concerned. If not
00:42 today, I think everyone will be watching out for the opening session tomorrow, where the 20,000
00:47 number in terms of Nifty 50 is eyed. But let's quickly welcome in our guest, Osho Krishnan,
00:53 Senior Research Analyst, Technical and Derivatives at Angel One to give us more
00:57 in terms of what's expected. Osho, good afternoon. My first question is,
01:01 are we going to hit that 20,000 mark before we close today?
01:05 Very good afternoon to you. We're looking at the overall sentiment. Yes, 20,000 mark is something
01:13 that everybody's eyeing on. And it is just a fraction of points, that is 10 points on a round
01:19 figure that Nifty has been low below the 20,000 mark. But it is still doubtful because it is
01:28 still doubtful because overall, the sentiments are bullish. But the time we are having more and
01:32 more expectation with 20,000 mark, it becomes a quite tentative task to achieve. So there might
01:38 be some kind of surprise element coming in the picture, maybe today or might be for tomorrow,
01:44 it will be left aside. So till now, the sentiments are obviously positive, just a figure of 20,000.
01:51 It will be something that one should look either in today's session or more possibilities looking
01:57 like the current condition that it might test today. But again, there is no surety because
02:02 10 points even sometimes is very, very high to catch on these kind of markets.
02:07 Osho, what is the open interest data indicating so far at 20,000 strike?
02:13 See, overall, at the starting of the session, 20,000, we are having the maximum call writing
02:18 position. But as we have proceeded above 19,900 in the mid-session, the 20,000 mark has started
02:26 shifting, the call writers have started shifting their position to 20,200. So clearly, it's an
02:32 indication that 20,000 is a mark that can be seen as a very achievable target as of now. But on the
02:39 higher end, we are expecting 20,200. And on the lower side, the previous support was approximately
02:46 at 19,700. So it is still there, but certain additions can be seen towards 19,800 also.
02:53 So that means the base is shifting upwards. On the higher end, it is still some certain tentative
02:58 movement that can be seen from 20,000 to 20,200 in the coming periods.
03:04 Right. Now, for this participation with regards to Bank Nifty is also absolutely crucial. In fact,
03:10 apart from Bank Nifty, everyone's staring at what happens to the IT index as well.
03:14 You know, what is the data indicating on both of these?
03:17 See, overall, Bank Nifty was also having very strong call writing position around 46,000
03:25 room. After that, 46,500 is something that which has been witnessing some kind of
03:32 addition on the higher end. So that means on Bank Nifty, we are expecting the upside to be on
03:38 towards 46,500. And on the downside, the data still suggests that 845,500 is still having a
03:48 very decent support. So any dip towards 46,000 or 45,800 should be acting as a very strong support.
03:55 And one can look for those kind of dip to buy the counter, buy in the index. And from there onwards,
04:03 there the upside target is of 46,500 for the next coming one to two trading sessions.
04:08 So, Osho, let's look at stocks, right? Now, RIL, HDFC, Infosys, these are names that everyone is
04:17 eyeing, you know, which could be contributors to take us to levels of 20,000. Clearly, Infosys is
04:23 a downer in today's session, HDFC pretty much on the borderline. RIL is giving the needed support
04:29 as we speak. And apart from that, if you see in terms of other names are concerned, you have ITC,
04:35 which is seeing some smart moves. Let's start off with the ITC and Reliance Industries. What
04:40 are charts indicating and what should the strategy be? Overall, ITC has always outperformed the
04:46 market from the past one and a half years. So ITC, even looking at the recent time period,
04:53 it has been hovering in a higher highs, higher lows pattern. So every week it is making a new
04:58 high. So that's a very positive development in the overall technical structure for ITC.
05:02 Even looking at today's construction, we have seen a lot of volume addition in ITC counter.
05:08 So from here onwards, FMCG space is looking very positive. HUL is about to have declared their
05:14 reports. So overall, FMCG counter is looking very nice. And specifically, ITC is on the verge of
05:21 clicking the 500 zone. So ITC, we might see in the coming week, it will be testing the levels of 500.
05:29 And now coming to Reliance, Reliance again has given a price discovery for the new emergence
05:35 of the counter, that is GeoFinance. So from here onwards, Reliance has sustained at the decent
05:40 level for today's session. So we are expecting that the overall trend in Reliance should continue
05:47 and one should utilize such kind of dips to accumulate the counter because the overall
05:52 structure in the current financial year is very strong for Reliance industry. So both the entities
05:57 of Reliance will be having very strong accumulation once the other entity will get into the
06:03 transactions period. But till then, Reliance is having a very positive development and one should
06:08 try to keep adding the positions from short to medium term perspective. Right. But Osho,
06:13 if you see the open interest addition right now, ABB and Reliance, both of these
06:18 are seeing a short build up in trade today. What does this indicate?
06:22 See, overall, the derivative data for Reliance for the day won't be having that much of
06:28 significance because if you will be seeing the data for yesterday, in the NSE, Bhavkopi,
06:33 majority of the data for Reliance was not present. So we have to again wait for one to two day for
06:39 the proper data description for Reliance. So from here onwards, looking at the technical chart,
06:45 it is still on the very positive front. But for derivative front, we have to look for,
06:49 we have to wait for one to two more trading session so that we can figure out that what
06:54 the derivative data suggests. Right. HDFC Bank as well is seeing some good additions on, I mean,
07:01 a good long build up in today's session, almost 53 to 54 percent is the kind of open interest
07:05 addition. Volumes are also pretty strong on this counter. What should the strategy be?
07:10 See, overall, HDFC being the most heavyweight counter in 50-50, we are not expecting a very
07:16 strong rally in this counter because in the near period, it has already seen a very significant
07:21 move from the levels of approximately 1580 towards 1750. And even as of now also, it is looking at,
07:29 it is placed at a very decent resistance zone to 17000 to 1740 is the first resistance zone for
07:36 this counter. So from here onwards, we have to become a bit cautious in this counter because
07:42 even many banking companies are about to announce their quarterly earnings. So that will be having
07:48 some kind of significance on the overall banking space. So HDFC as it is placed at the crucial
07:54 resistance zone, one should be better cautious at these levels and any upward movement towards
07:59 1740 will add up as a fresh long position build up in this counter. So one should buy it above
08:05 1740 and for the time being, 1700 to 1740 zone is something that one should wait and watch for
08:12 some kind of consolidation or even if there will be some kind of dip towards 1640, one should try
08:17 to accumulate this count. Right. Osho, how are you looking at Axis Bank as well as an ICICI Bank? I
08:22 think both initially were on the race to hit a 900. Now, both of them are racing towards levels
08:28 of around 1000 and good OI addition seen on both these banking majors. Overall, I'm more bullish
08:36 on ICICI Bank as of now, because looking at the overall technical setup and the derivative front
08:42 and on the back of derivative front, we have witnessed a very strong addition in ICICI Bank
08:48 post the breakout around the levels of 960. So from here onwards, if we will be seeing the
08:53 formation on the technical base, it is approximately 1040 to 1080 that one can expect from
09:00 medium term perspective. But again, from Axis Bank perspective, Axis Bank is also having a very
09:05 strong technical setup. But in this expiry, we can expect that 980 to 990 can be acting as the
09:13 first resistance zone for Axis Bank. As of now, it is somewhere around 980 zone. So here onwards,
09:21 the 52-weeks high of 982, 984 is something that one should wait and watch for. Once it gives a
09:28 breakout above 984, 986 levels, then from there onwards, we can expect a gradual up move towards
09:34 the 1000 mark. But more optimism is with the ICICI Bank. Infosys is in focus as well. The company
09:42 will be reporting numbers in today's session. But longs are being unwound, Osho, in terms of
09:48 Infosys as we speak right now. What are you looking at? As of now, Infosys have already seen
09:55 a very decent rally in the previous week. So as of now, there can be some kind of correction or
10:00 pull-off that can happen in this counter. Technically, the stock is still hovering above
10:04 the 200-day SMA, which is placed near to 1420-odd zone. So till the time it is sustaining the levels
10:11 of 1400, 1420, we are not very much negative on this counter. Any dip towards 1400 should be
10:19 adding as a constructive development for Infosys. But overall, looking on the technical setup,
10:25 the counter has already been in the overbought region. So from here onwards, any dip towards
10:30 1400 will be acting as a very strong support. And one should try to accumulate at lower levels
10:36 for the upside target of 1520 on immediate basis. And depending on the earnings season and how it
10:42 reacts on the price chart, from there onwards, we can even expect a further rally in the coming
10:48 period. Right. Osho, so now, you know, it's 100% we're not closing at the 20,000 mark in today's
10:55 session. What would you recommend investors to buy or what should the strategy be for tomorrow's
11:01 session of trade? Taking into consideration we might see a 20,000. See, as of now, majority of
11:08 the counters which were looking very bullish and which have the potential to drive market
11:12 have already been at a very higher prices. So there is no risk reward in the major heavyweight
11:17 counters as of now. But there are a few more stocks which are technically very sound and have
11:22 the potential to move more 4 to 5% in the coming one to two days. So first technical pick will be
11:28 from SBI card. SBI card has been forming a rounding bottom in the recent two to three weeks.
11:35 Currently, it is hovering around 850. So one should try to accumulate SBI card for the upside
11:42 target of 890 to 900. While on the downside, a trader should keep a stop loss of 832. The other
11:50 counter is again from a very heavyweight company, Bajaj Finance. Bajaj Finance has also seen a very
11:56 strong reversal kind of a pattern. So one should try to accumulate it around the current levels,
12:01 that is 7600 for the upside target of 7900. While on the downside, 7370 should be kept as the
12:08 stop loss in Bajaj Finance. There are many other counters which are looking very positive,
12:13 but the risk reward for those counters are not very much favorable. So I'm not
12:17 mentioning any other names. But SBI card and Bajaj Finance from risk and reward
12:23 point of view also is looking very good from at the current price.
12:27 Right. So these are going to be interesting stocks that we should be watching out for
12:32 as well. Thank you, Osho, so much for joining us on the show and sharing those views
12:36 and giving recommendations to our viewers as well. But clearly, if you see from a market perspective,
12:42 I think there were eyes on that 20000 mark in terms of Nifty 50. But we don't see ourselves
12:50 closing at those levels. And 9979 is what we're staring at so far. Still 150 point up move coming
12:57 in on that front good support coming in from Bank Nifty as well. 46200 gains of almost 1.2%
13:03 so clearly outperformance from the banking majors in today's session. And the advance decline ratio
13:10 which was pretty much in favor of the bears when we started off the trading session today has
13:14 actually turned in favor of the bulls with 38 advances on Nifty 50. In terms of stock specific
13:20 action, ITC the top gainer, in fact, one of the biggest contributors as well. Apart from that,
13:25 you had HDFC Bank as well and Reliance Industries. These three have been the top contributors to Nifty
13:30 50 up move. Gotek Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Dr. Reddy's and Cipla are few of the other gainers.
13:37 The ones which kept markets under check in forces, you know, if there was positivity in terms of
13:42 infosys probably we would have seen that 20,000 mark in today's session. But pressure on the
13:47 Altrotec cement, Bajaj Finserv. The two-wheeler space was also under pressure with Ayesha Motors
13:52 as well as Hiromoto seeing cuts of almost around three tenths to four tenths of a percent coming
13:57 in there. Overall, if you see in terms of Bank Nifty, the advance decline ratio in terms of Bank
14:03 Nifty as well, 8 advances, 4 declines. And on the declining end, you had Bandhan Bank, Bank of Baroda,
14:09 PNB as well as IDFC First Bank. So, these were the ones which were under pressure in overall trade.
14:15 Let's quickly look at what was happening in terms of the Sensex as well. 66,523. So, we have managed
14:23 to close about the 63,500 mark in trade. The indicative close is coming in at around 67,540
14:31 as we speak. And in terms of stock specific action, a good move seen in terms of Nugen,
14:36 12.5% up move. Polycab has seen a smart run on the back of earnings, 10.5% to 11% up move. Hatsan
14:43 again on the back of numbers, saw smart moves. RVNL, 7.5% again earnings. South Indian Bank on
14:50 the back of earnings, 7.5% downtick. ABB on the back of the comments that we heard from ABB Global
14:56 saw cuts of around 6.5%. Saregama, Sharda Crop Chem, these were a few of the other losers in trade
15:02 today as well. So, clearly a lot of stock specific action, but the markets warned of that 20,000
15:09 mark is something that we've not been able to achieve in today's session. Whether we see that
15:13 in pre-open tomorrow is going to be interesting to wait and watch. And what happens in the global
15:18 markets and if there is any mirror effect, because though there is that little disconnect that we
15:23 have been witnessing between global markets and our markets, but what happens in tomorrow's session
15:27 is going to be interesting to watch out for. That's all that we have on this session. Thanks
15:31 for watching. Lots more lined up on the other side. Please stay tuned to BQ Prime and have a great evening.
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