AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski breaks down the hurricane outlook for 2023 as we move toward late summer and early fall.
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00:00 I want to talk about where we are,
00:02 where we're going,
00:02 and then we'll wrap it up into the fall season.
00:05 I want to bring in our Accuweather
00:07 hurricane expert Dan Katlowski this
00:08 morning here on Accuweather early.
00:10 And before we get to what's going to happen,
00:13 Dan impressions to what has
00:14 already happened this season.
00:15 Well, it looks like we've had again.
00:17 We've had five storms,
00:18 including the update,
00:19 updated storm in January,
00:21 but basically we've had four in
00:22 the actual tropical season,
00:24 which is a little bit above normal.
00:26 Normally we would know that
00:27 we're going to have a tropical
00:29 storm this year, but normally we
00:31 would not see Storm 3 until early
00:33 August and now we've already had
00:35 four in the early part of the season.
00:37 5, including one in January,
00:39 but basically the numbers are higher
00:41 than normal as far as that's concerned.
00:43 Also,
00:43 one of the other variables we look at is
00:46 the ace as accumulated cyclone energy.
00:49 That's also up this year as well,
00:51 but the heart of the season is
00:53 what we look at very closely.
00:56 That's basically from the latter
00:57 part of August through September.
00:59 That's where we get a lot more activity,
01:02 but in the early season the numbers.
01:04 The numbers are are mathematically up,
01:06 but as far as as Paul mentioned
01:09 in his segment there,
01:10 we have not seen any big damages yet.
01:13 You know really quickly if we can take
01:15 this graphic full for one second here,
01:18 you can see the names of the storms.
01:20 You know it's been relatively
01:22 quiet for now, Dan.
01:23 Really quickly,
01:24 what we've seen so far the last
01:26 couple of weeks is what we normally see.
01:28 That is a lot of dry air.
01:30 You can see that with the yellow and
01:33 orange shading and a lot of wind shear.
01:35 Exactly,
01:35 so dry stable air that usually
01:37 cuts down on the storms.
01:39 If there's sheer like there has been
01:41 this year that adds to the problems.
01:43 That's why we haven't really
01:44 seen any big development again.
01:45 Waters are very warm,
01:47 so when there's opportunity there,
01:48 less sheer and less dry air.
01:50 Yeah,
01:50 you're going to get quick development.
01:52 Yeah, let's really quickly look at
01:54 those water temperatures you were
01:55 mentioning that so even though we
01:57 have a lot of warm water,
01:58 these are the anomalies because
01:59 of the wind shear in the dry air.
02:01 We haven't had much,
02:02 but then typically and you and I
02:04 were just talking about this as
02:06 you get in the mid to late August.
02:07 It's not like the dry air and wind shear go
02:10 away but they start to lessen a little bit.
02:12 And that's when we get the heart of the season.
02:14 What do you think the heart of this
02:16 season is going to be like this year?
02:18 Well, I think the heart of the
02:19 season will be like a normal season.
02:21 I think we're going to see,
02:23 you know,
02:23 around three,
02:24 maybe four storms in August.
02:25 And if anywhere from five to maybe
02:27 six in September and then we'll
02:29 see a slackening off in October.
02:30 Keep in mind that El Nino is going
02:33 to get stronger and stronger as we
02:35 go through the month of September
02:37 into October and usually when it happens,
02:39 the shear really becomes more dominant.
02:41 Yeah,
02:41 and let's talk about that then
02:43 because doing an El Nino and this
02:45 was what you guys were facing when
02:47 you were our long range forecast team.
02:49 When you were making this forecast
02:51 months in advance doing El Nino,
02:53 you typically get less activity
02:55 doing in the Atlantic Basin and you
02:57 kind of think that that may ramp up a
03:00 little bit this year as we get toward
03:03 the fall. Well, we've had more storms
03:05 this year simply because there's
03:07 a lag between La Nina and El Nino,
03:09 so we think that lag has been a
03:12 lot more impressive this year.
03:14 So therefore we are the four storms
03:16 that we had during June and July.
03:18 Early July they were basically
03:20 because we still had that lingering
03:22 El Nino La Nina pattern,
03:23 but now as we go now El Nino more
03:26 shear less chance for opportunity
03:27 as we normally see,
03:29 but the water temperatures are warm and
03:31 again we're going into that sweet spot
03:33 of the season that really quickly
03:34 in about 1015 seconds.
03:36 If you don't have already a hurricane
03:38 plan along the coast, you need to get
03:40 one exactly. Please get your hurricane
03:42 plan in place because we could get
03:44 very active here late, especially
03:46 late August into September.
03:48 [BLANK_AUDIO]