#StocksToWatch | #HDFCSecurities' Nagraj Shetti talks about key market levels, and highlights stocks to watch for July 31. #BQLive
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00:00 Hello and welcome to BQ Primer. Very good afternoon to all the viewers. I'm Hiral Dharia.
00:04 Overall, if you see in terms of markets from today's lowest levels of 19,563, we've almost
00:10 seen 100 points recovery that has come in, but still we're pretty much in the negative zone. So,
00:16 yes, as we have mentioned in the first half of the day today that there is going to be consolidation
00:21 with regards to August series. That seems to be the trend, at least on the first day of the series
00:26 so far. If you see in terms of the Sensex as well, clearly we're seeing cuts of around almost 100
00:33 points coming in there. So, there is not much positivity in the markets, but it's clearly
00:38 stock specific action that we have been witnessing in trade today. In fact, to discuss more in terms
00:44 of what to do with markets joining us is Nagraj Shetty, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC.
00:51 Nagraj, good afternoon and welcome to the show.
00:54 Hi, Hiral, good afternoon.
00:55 Nagraj, my first question coming to you is overall, the bearish momentum has continued
01:02 to build and we're now hovering somewhere around that 19,600 mark. We did go below those 19,600
01:09 levels, but almost 100 points recovery from there on and now we are at around 19,650.
01:14 What's the sense that you pick up and what should the strategy be?
01:20 Yeah, fine. See, Nifty has been in a continuous uptrend. If you look at the daily chart over the
01:30 last couple of months, we have been in a constant uptrend without showing any reasonable downward
01:35 correction. What we have seen in between is that one or two days correction or consolidation pattern
01:41 after that market has kept on moving higher and higher. Now, around 20,000 mark, around 19,990.
01:50 Nifty has tumbled down and shown some kind of a downward correction. I think the area of 20,000
01:58 mark is going to be a strong resistance for the market. The way the market declined yesterday,
02:04 even though it has recovered smartly from the lower levels, but the overall chart setup is,
02:09 I'm expecting the weakness is likely to continue for some more period.
02:14 So initially, there is a support for the market is placed around 19,500 to 450 levels. We are
02:22 likely to see some minor upside bounce in the near term in the next day or two, but eventually,
02:29 Nifty could come down further. So if you look at the larger time frame, this is a smaller time
02:36 frame, if you look at the larger time frame chart, last 17, 18 weeks, we have been continuously
02:40 rising and without showing any bigger correction in between. I think there is a time for a bigger
02:47 correction. I'm expecting that 20,000 mark is a strong resistance and from here, we are likely
02:54 to see some good amount of downward correction. If you look at the broader picture, there is a
02:59 support around 19,500, 450 levels. We could see some bounces from the lower levels in the weeks
03:05 of time, but over the period of time, that 19,500 is going to be broken on the lower side.
03:10 And eventually, we could slide down to the important support of 19,100. That support is
03:18 near to that 23% retracement of the sharp upside from started from the March, from around the 16,800
03:26 to almost 20,000 mark. So downward correction is due for me. Right. Apart from this, overall,
03:34 if you see in terms of Bank Nifty as well, the call writers have been dominant for the day.
03:40 Clearly, a tussle of call and put writers that can be seen around levels of around 45,500.
03:45 Where do you place the support and the resistance?
03:48 Yeah, Bank Nifty as well is placed at the strong resistance around 46,200, 46,300 levels.
03:58 And yesterday's Barry Schengel thing, candle pattern on the daily chart is indicating that
04:02 last four or five days range has been angled from the downside, which is indicating
04:08 bearish bias. Currently, the Bank Nifty is holding at the 20-day exponential moving average support
04:14 around 45,200 to 50 levels. That support has held up nicely over the last couple of months. And most
04:21 of the time, Bank Nifty has bounced back from here. This 20-day support currently placed at
04:26 the support showing minor upside bounces. I'm expecting that eventually, the support is going
04:32 to be broken on the lower side. Once this 45-day to 20-day support breaks on the downside as per
04:38 daily time frame chart, I'm expecting this Bank Nifty to slide down to the 44,400 to 44,500,
04:47 which is the next set of support in the near term.
04:49 Right. Now, coming to individual stock specific action as well.
04:55 Tata Power, Tata Chemicals and Nipka, all these three counters are seeing a long
04:59 run. Tata Power was moving in a consolidation over the last few weeks and today witnessed a
05:12 sharp upside bounce on the positive event. I'm expecting this upside momentum is likely to
05:17 continue on the larger time frame chart also. This is looking promising and we are likely to
05:22 see the upside breakout of 235 to 238 levels on the upside breakout. The next upside resistance
05:30 to be watched could be around 216. Okay. What would you advise to do with the NTPC?
05:38 Some strong moves coming in on that counter as well in today's session.
05:41 Can you repeat the stock name? NTPC.
05:49 NTPC. Yeah, same thing continues. Power sector has been doing today. The NTPC, in fact, has been
05:55 in a strong uptrend, continuously moving up and higher tops, higher bottoms on the daily chart is
06:00 indicating that this stock is in a strong upside momentum. Having moved up sharply from the 190 to
06:08 210 levels recently, there is a scope for some consolidation. I'm expecting around 210 to 215
06:15 levels as a strong resistance for the NTPC and we could see some consolidation in the near term.
06:22 So, the overall chart pattern is looking that any downward correction could be an opportunity
06:27 to enter at the lower levels. So, time being, plays at the highs,
06:31 expecting some resistance at the higher levels. Right. Anarkali, are we looking at a bit of
06:40 finance impact and the financials one of the dog losers in trade today? What should the strategy be?
06:47 Bajaj Finance has witnessed a phenomenal upside moment over the last couple of months from the
06:54 lows of around 5750, 5800 and has reached the important resistance band of around 7750
07:01 and 7800 levels. So, there is a time for a correction, I believe. And this consolidation
07:07 moment, what you are witnessing over the last many sessions is likely to come down. So,
07:13 this stock is expecting to show some downward corrections in between. And the next lower
07:20 levels I'm expecting around 6750 to 6800 levels, which is a 200-day EMA, which is a higher amount
07:27 of support for these stocks in the near term. Right. Bajaj, apart from the news that we
07:34 discussed, anything that comes to your data that should be good opportunities to invest in?
07:38 So, I will get you the stocks, which one you are saying?
07:44 No, I am saying apart from the stocks that we discussed, anything that is on your list,
07:50 that would be a good opportunity. Yes, yes. We have certain stocks which are
07:56 outperforming during this volatile broader market. And I have one stock, Prestige.
08:02 Prestige yesterday, if you look at the chart, this has bounced back strongly by around 7%,
08:07 currently trading around 7% today. And look at the chart, this stock has witnessed upside breakout
08:13 in the last month. And after that, it has slipped into a downward correction, a minor correction,
08:19 and a consolidation. That consolidation took support at 517, 520 levels, which is the
08:25 area of the upside breakout point and more. So, this is a typical upside breakout of this pattern.
08:32 I am expecting Prestige Estate to move up further, currently placed at 588,
08:37 587. And we are likely to see next overall resistance of around 625, 630 in the near term.
08:45 The second stock is the Industor. If you look at the chart, Industor was in a larger range over
08:51 the last couple of months and currently placed at the strong resistance of 174, 75. Though it
08:58 made an attempt of upside breakout and currently showing some consolidation at the higher levels.
09:03 I am expecting this stock to move up from the lower levels. There is a strong support around
09:07 170. And we could see the next hurdle of around 184 to 185 levels, this stock is reaching in the
09:14 near term. That's lots of contrast, and I should be watching out for. Thank you, Nagraj, so much
09:20 for joining us on the show and sharing those views. So, these are the newsmakers. But clearly,
09:25 if you go to see the heaviest pressure that has continued in the markets, we broke at that 19,600
09:31 mark in intermediary, but the recovery of almost 100 points from those lows has come in, and that's
09:37 the levels we've been tracking. That's all that we have on this session. Thanks for watching.
09:40 And we'll call it on the other side. Thank you.
09:43 Thank you.
09:43 Bye.