Antara Resesi dan 'Soft Landing' -Konser Taylor Swift Jadi Indikator Informal
Category
✨
PeopleTranscript
00:00 The rise of the sale of Taylor Swift's concert tickets in the Aeros tour
00:05 became an informal indicator for analysts
00:08 that the US economy will continue to rise.
00:11 I think what we're seeing is a Taylor Swift economy.
00:15 We've had very strong economic growth.
00:18 We've had very strong consumer spending.
00:21 I read statistics that said that ticket sales have nearly been a billion dollars for Taylor Swift.
00:27 That's impressive.
00:29 And people are traveling and eating out.
00:33 The PCE index,
00:37 one of the indicators of the US central bank's or federal reserve's inflation,
00:41 shows the biggest decline in two years,
00:44 at 3% compared to the previous year.
00:47 In so many ways, this economic environment is very different to a typical cycle
00:52 because of the pandemic.
00:54 And it's really hard to say how and when this would end
01:00 because it's so much about the consumer sentiment.
01:04 And with real wages being so strong and labor markets so tight,
01:10 it does not look like it's going to end anytime soon.
01:15 But when the price of goods is falling, the price of services is rising.
01:18 Consumers play an important role in this dynamic.
01:22 People have more money in their pockets.
01:24 They can spend it or save it.
01:26 And if they spend it, prices are going to continue to rise,
01:30 and the Fed will have to continue to raise interest rates,
01:34 and we think that will invoke a recession.
01:37 If they save the extra money, jobs are probably going to get lost
01:41 because corporate profits will be dented.
01:44 And so that will probably lead to a recession.
01:46 So either way, I think we're getting a recession.
01:49 But if people can somehow find a way to become more productive,
01:53 prices can level out or even decline.
01:56 But if people are more productive,
01:58 companies can make their goods and services for cheaper,
02:01 maintain those corporate profits,
02:03 I think that's one way out of a recession.
02:06 And that's probably how we could get a soft landing.
02:09 Soft landing is the ideal condition that the central bank wants to facilitate.
02:15 After the US economy has been hot for several years
02:18 until the end of the pandemic,
02:20 in their last meeting in July,
02:22 the central bank said that there would be no recession in the US in the near future.
02:27 But it's only an economic delay
02:29 because the US economy indicator has been so strong in the last few months.
02:34 But the central bank is still ready to raise interest rates
02:38 if inflation suddenly increases again.
02:41 From Washington DC, I'm Nova Purwadi and the VOA team.
02:44 [BLANK_AUDIO]