Averting PH rice crisis

The Manila Times

Averting PH rice crisis   Federation of Free Farmers (FFF) chairman and former agriculture secretary, Leonardo Montemayor said at least 700,000 metric tons (MT) need to be imported to meet the country's demand for rice. Based on data from the Department of Agriculture, 300,000 MT are expected to come between August and September, which is still 'not enough' to cover the 21-day gap before the next harvest between October and November.  VIDEO AND INTERVIEW BY EZRAH RAYA  Subscribe to The Manila Times Channel - https://tmt.ph/YTSubscribe  Visit our website at https://www.manilatimes.net  Follow us: Facebook - https://tmt.ph/facebook Instagram - https://tmt.ph/instagram Twitter - https://tmt.ph/twitter DailyMotion - https://tmt.ph/dailymotion  Subscribe to our Digital Edition - https://tmt.ph/digital  Check out our Podcasts: Spotify - https://tmt.ph/spotify Apple Podcasts - https://tmt.ph/applepodcasts Amazon Music - https://tmt.ph/amazonmusic Deezer: https://tmt.ph/deezer Stitcher: https://tmt.ph/stitcher Tune In: https://tmt.ph/tunein  #TheManilaTimes #DailyNews #RiceCrisis #Rice #FFF #FederationofFreeFarmers #DA #DepartmentOfAgriculture

Transcript

00:00 I'm Ezra Raya and this is the Manila Times.

00:03 The price of rice in local markets are increasing weekly and is expected to skyrocket as the

00:10 country produced less output due to typhoons and the looming El Niño.

00:15 But the Philippines is not alone in this concern.

00:18 Global rice costs are now at their highest in nearly 12 years.

00:22 Industry experts warn that rice prices could go up to 60 to 65 pesos per kilo.

00:30 Here to give us insights is the Chairman of the Federation of Free Farmers

00:34 and former Agriculture Secretary, Leonardo Montemayor.

00:39 Welcome to the Manila Times, sir.

00:41 Sir, tell us about the current situation and is there an impending rice shortage?

00:46 First of all, I would say that the situation now is a bit serious because

00:56 as we are now in the lean months period, this is this this covered the months of

01:01 July, August and September, so that's roughly 90 days.

01:06 As of August 1, the Department of Agriculture told us that our national supplies were,

01:15 meaning rice supplies that are in the possession of the traders, farmers,

01:21 and then by the government through the National Food Authority.

01:26 These supplies were down to 39 days as of August 1.

01:31 So assuming that there are no imports that are coming in,

01:34 so that 39 days would be good or will last us only up to around the end of the first week of September,

01:44 September 7 or September 8.

01:47 So we're looking at a 21 days gap or rice supplies to tide us over until the start of the main harvest,

01:57 which would be in October, November.

01:59 So that 21 days is critical.

02:01 That would amount to about, I think, 700 to 750,000 metric tons of rice.

02:09 So the question is, is that rice going to come in?

02:14 Because if you are looking at additional rice from the local palaya, it's too early yet.

02:20 We're not yet harvesting.

02:22 So essentially that 21 days requirement to cover that gap of 21 days will have to come from imports.

02:32 And the most that we have heard so far is that around 300,000 metric tons of rice

02:40 are expected to come in between now and September.

02:43 So 300,000 is still not enough.

02:46 That's only about seven days supply versus the 21 days that we need.

02:51 So there will be a gap of 14.

02:53 So that is the reason why, because of the tight supply situation leading to next month,

02:59 prices of local rice are going up.

03:02 The tight supply coupled with the increased prices of international rice

03:09 that we buy from abroad, principally Vietnam,

03:11 as well as the increase in the prices of local rice that are produced locally in Palay form.

03:19 Sir, you mentioned based on your computations,

03:22 rice prices could soar up to 60 to 65 pesos per kilo.

03:27 Yes.

03:29 Right now, as Rad, the prevailing market prices in the markets

03:35 range from, I think, about 45 to 50 pesos or even more.

03:39 And this is true not only in Metro Manila, but I believe all over the country.

03:45 So that's the situation now.

03:48 And as I said, as we enter September, unless imports come in, in sufficient quantity,

03:54 you will see a further tightening of supply.

03:57 And of course, following the law of supply and demand, the price of rice will tend to go up.

04:03 Now, the additional element here is that a few days back,

04:08 we were informed that some traders were buying local Palay at 30, 32 or even more pesos per kilo.

04:17 And the rough rule of thumb to translate Palay price into the retail price of rice

04:24 is you multiply the Palay price by two.

04:27 So 32 times two would be roughly 64 pesos per kilo of rice.

04:35 So that would be the basis for our estimate that rice prices at retail could go as high as from 60

04:44 to 65.

04:44 It won't happen, but unless the imports come in in sufficient volume, that might be the likely outcome.

04:53 Sir, with the external factors at play and the typhoons that damaged significant amount of our

04:58 produce, what is the possibility of a rice crisis?

05:03 I think the recent typhoons like Egay, they did substantial damage.

05:09 But in terms of the rice supply, probably my own calculation is about the loss was probably

05:18 around two days or three days supply.

05:20 So if you factor that in, all the more we have to increase the importable volume by more than

05:28 700,000 tons.

05:30 Fortunately, in a sense, many of the rice crops that were affected by the recent typhoons were

05:40 still in the early stages of growth.

05:43 So for many farmers, they will either replant or whatever was the surviving rice plants,

05:56 they will just allow them to go on until they're harvestable.

06:00 Of course, the volume of harvested rice in that case would be going down, but at least

06:06 the farmers can hope to at least recover their expenses.

06:12 So it's a factor, but it's not the principal reason, I think, for why the rice prices are

06:20 really increasing dramatically.

06:22 Sir, with all these short-term solutions, you mentioned that importation would have

06:28 to be increased to meet the demands of rice and to keep the prices low.

06:32 So with all of these short-term solutions to impede, to prevent a possible rice crisis,

06:41 could you talk to us more about long-term solutions to achieve that rice sufficiency

06:48 that the government is...

06:49 Just to add quickly, Esra, on the short-term solutions, we really have to do a fast break

06:55 in terms of being more careful in our rice consumption.

07:02 So let's try to avoid unlimited rice.

07:06 Meanwhile, the ideal carryover stock, the amount that we supply in 2023, ideally should

07:16 be 90 days starting January 1 of 2024.

07:19 So if it's 52 days, it's not enough.

07:22 38 days is not enough, right?

07:25 The problem is the dry season crop that will be planted by farmers immediately after they

07:32 harvest in October, November, will be coming in mid-March or April of next year.

07:38 So, especially if El Nino enters the picture in early 2024, we'll have a problem, not just

07:52 in the lean months, but even in the dry season months of April to May.

07:57 So the solutions here again have to be immediate.

08:02 Make sure all the irrigation systems are properly maintained.

08:07 The canals should be cleaned so we do not waste water.

08:12 Try to construct as many water impounding dams as possible.

08:17 Introduce solar-powered irrigation systems that can be done at farm level.

08:25 This can still be done between now and QAN, and the end of this year.

08:30 So that's the most immediate thing I can see.

08:33 And then make sure all the support measures needed by farmers like seed subsidies, fuel

08:39 subsidies, installation of dryers should be done ahead so that we can maximize our harvest

08:50 during the dry season harvest come around the second quarter of 2024.

08:57 Now, beyond that, I think it's time now really to review and I would say amend certain provisions

09:06 of the rice stratification law.

09:07 Like, for example, we should restore some of the important functions of the National

09:14 Food Authority.

09:15 Right now, even if there is an impending shortage of rice and traders are reluctant to import

09:23 because of the high price of rice, the RTL law prohibits the NFA, the government, from

09:29 importing.

09:30 So our government does not have the flexibility to deal with a very tight supply situation.

09:38 Also, the NFA does not even have, I think, adequate data.

09:43 How much stocks do the private traders have in their bodegas?

09:48 Because that visitorial or inspection power was removed totally by the rice stratification

09:55 law.

09:55 So, even the basic information, the government does not know.

09:58 It's high time really for the president to really, shall we say, use his political clout

10:08 to push Congress to pass the land use law.

10:12 It has been lying idle for more than six years, even during the Duterte administration, in

10:18 the Senate Committee on Agriculture, chaired by the committee chair, my good friend, Cynthia

10:25 Villar.

10:25 And there's no reason why the committee cannot even hold a single hearing.

10:31 I don't see why that cannot be subjected to a hearing and then vote on it.

10:37 Because the whole country is asking for a land use law that will rationally allocate

10:43 the uses of land, all types of land in the Philippines, including agricultural land,

10:47 and prevent unnecessary conversions of agricultural lands that are needed for our food security.

10:55 Okay, thank you for those insights, Sir.

11:00 So, repeating what you said, the government could look into land conversion laws and restoring

11:07 certain functions of the NFA, especially with importing and collecting adequate and accurate

11:12 data.

11:12 And Ruf, repeating your advice to local consumers to stop wasting rice and to just cook what

11:21 you eat.

11:22 Thank you so much, Chairman of the Federation of Free Farmers and former Agriculture Secretary,

11:30 Leonardo Montemayor.

11:32 Thank you very much.

11:33 Thank you for your invitation.

11:35 Thank you.

11:36 Thank you.

11:46 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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