انكماش السيولة في الاقتصاد الأميركي.. ما الذي يعنيه للمستثمرين؟
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00:00 One of the most important economic factors that investors and central banks look at is the size of the liquidity available in the economy.
00:11 When we talk about the M2 category, M2 usually includes cash, and the cash transferable deposits.
00:23 It includes all the cash flows in the economy, but it is considered the highest flow.
00:32 Its liquidity is very high.
00:35 If we look at the annual change in M2, we notice that we have a recession.
00:41 This annual change between 2023 and 2022, we are talking about a recession.
00:47 This recession, which means we are below zero, happens for the first time in the year 1959.
00:56 What is the reason for this?
00:58 We see this not only in America, but in the whole world.
01:01 The reason is the change of central banks to a more strict monetary policy.
01:07 Specifically, when we talk about what is known as quantitative tightening, central banks resell the bonds they bought.
01:17 When these bonds are sold, they withdraw liquidity in exchange for returning the bond, which causes a lot of pressure on liquidity.
01:25 But this is not the whole picture.
01:28 When we look at the current liquidity in the American economy, we see that it is more than 4 trillion dollars higher than it was before the pandemic.
01:42 Of course, this is a very important issue for both economists and investors.
01:48 BNP Paribas said that every 10% of the global economy liquidity will cause a 4% decline in the stock market and a 2% increase in the dollar.
02:01 Not only that, but BNP Paribas also expects a 9% decline by September of this year and 11% by the end of 2023.
02:15 This decline in liquidity will have implications for different types of assets, especially stocks and dollars, even for US bonds.
02:25 Because these liquidity, which was being pumped after the pandemic, has now turned to a different type of assets, which are risky assets.
02:35 Therefore, this decline in liquidity will leave a lot of implications, starting with the economy and also on different types of assets.