Could we be experiencing a global pandemic soon?
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00:00 (cough)
00:02 It starts with a simple cough.
00:04 (cough)
00:04 And before you know it,
00:07 millions of people are infected.
00:10 And it won't stop there.
00:12 It could keep growing and growing,
00:15 until billions of people are sick,
00:18 flights are canceled,
00:19 cities are quarantined,
00:21 and hospitals are flooded with patients.
00:25 This is what's known as a global pandemic.
00:29 Could we experience something like this?
00:32 A worldwide pandemic like this
00:52 wouldn't be new to the human race.
00:54 It happened in 1918,
00:56 and was known as the Spanish Flu.
00:59 It infected about one-third of the global population,
01:03 and killed an estimated 50 million people.
01:07 So before we start completely freaking out
01:10 about the end of the world,
01:12 you can take a bit of comfort in knowing
01:14 this most likely doesn't mean the end of civilization.
01:17 But that doesn't mean there won't be consequences.
01:22 Before we get to what might happen,
01:24 how does a pandemic start anyway?
01:27 Well, widely spread epidemics in the past,
01:29 like the Spanish Flu,
01:31 as well as SARS in 2003,
01:33 began with a strain of influenza,
01:36 or the flu.
01:38 Now, there are two main types of influenza.
01:40 Type A,
01:42 which typically comes from animals,
01:43 including birds, cats, pigs, and horses.
01:47 And type B viruses,
01:49 which are only common among humans.
01:52 The symptoms of a virus like this
01:54 are things we've all experienced.
01:57 Runny nose, fever, headache,
01:59 and just general cold symptoms.
02:02 But in other cases,
02:03 influenza can also result in respiratory issues,
02:07 kidney failure, or even death.
02:11 But keep in mind,
02:12 those aren't guaranteed to happen.
02:14 A disease like this could infect
02:16 over 2.5 billion people.
02:19 Why so many?
02:20 Well, the main thing about these influenza strains
02:24 is that they can be carried through the air.
02:26 If someone has it,
02:28 and breathes in your direction,
02:30 you could breathe in microscopic water droplets
02:33 carrying the virus.
02:35 Or if you touch a surface that has the virus on it,
02:37 and then touch your face,
02:39 you could also catch the disease.
02:41 You might not even feel the symptoms
02:43 of influenza right away.
02:45 It could take a few hours,
02:46 or even up to two weeks.
02:49 This means you could be interacting with people as usual,
02:52 and unknowingly be infecting them.
02:55 And today,
02:56 the world is a lot different than it was
02:58 during 1918's Spanish flu.
03:01 In addition to the world's population being much higher,
03:04 we also live very differently.
03:07 Cities are more dense,
03:09 with places like Mumbai
03:10 having over 76,000 people per square mile.
03:14 With people living closer together,
03:16 it means we can infect each other more easily.
03:19 Not only that, but
03:20 we travel the world with ease now.
03:23 People who unknowingly carry a virus
03:25 can quickly bring it to the other side of the world.
03:29 If this new virus were to spread to just a single person,
03:33 who spread it to another single person,
03:35 and another,
03:36 and another,
03:37 as time went on,
03:39 it would eventually infect millions.
03:42 As people got infected,
03:43 planes would be grounded,
03:45 and entire countries could be quarantined.
03:48 If it got bad enough,
03:49 we might not even be able to leave our homes
03:52 due to the risk of infecting people,
03:54 or getting infected ourselves.
03:56 Getting help at a hospital could be difficult too.
04:00 With billions of people infected,
04:02 it's unlikely hospitals would be able to care for everyone.
04:06 If we're dealing with a pandemic
04:07 that spreads the same way as the Spanish flu did,
04:11 we could anticipate anywhere between
04:12 200 to 425 million deaths.
04:17 And that's out of the approximately
04:18 2.5 billion people who would be infected.
04:22 But how likely is it
04:24 that a scenario like this will happen?
04:26 Well, it's hard to say.
04:28 Experts say that humanity is due for a massive pandemic.
04:32 It happened 100 years ago with the Spanish flu,
04:36 and before that,
04:37 with the bubonic plague in 1347.
04:40 Unfortunately, pandemics like these
04:43 are just a reality of human civilization.
04:46 But that doesn't mean a pandemic today
04:49 would be as bad as the Spanish flu.
04:52 Although the disease might spread
04:53 more efficiently than ever before,
04:56 it also might be easier than ever to cure it.
04:59 Although a pandemic implies
05:00 that you'll have little immunity to it,
05:03 doctors could develop a vaccine for it.
05:06 Today, with increased technology and communication
05:10 it could be more seamless than ever.
05:12 The world's scientists could work together.
05:15 You could have doctors in New York
05:17 talking with researchers in China,
05:19 trying to solve a pandemic.
05:21 It definitely wouldn't be easy,
05:23 and could take up to a year,
05:25 but eventually, a vaccine could be invented.
05:29 The next issue would be how it gets distributed.
05:32 If countries aren't willing to work together
05:35 and distribute the vaccines fairly,
05:37 it could cause some serious conflict.
05:40 But assuming they all do work together,
05:43 it could eventually stop the pandemic.
05:46 Hopefully, something like this
05:47 won't happen in the first place.
05:49 After all, we're now better at monitoring animals
05:53 and their diseases than ever before.
05:55 And by knowing the consequences of a real pandemic,
05:59 hopefully we can stop the spread of infections
06:01 before they go any further.
06:04 So how can you avoid something like this?
06:07 According to health experts,
06:09 the rules are pretty simple.
06:11 Similar to avoiding the common cold,
06:13 you should wash your hands a lot,
06:15 and keep away from people coughing and sneezing.
06:18 And if you're feeling sick,
06:20 you should definitely see a doctor right away.
06:23 Also, would you please cough or sneeze
06:26 into a tissue or an elbow?
06:29 So although everybody doesn't have to die in this scenario,
06:33 it would have a severe impact on people.
06:37 And if the world isn't willing to work
06:39 and cooperate together,
06:41 the realities of a new pandemic could be pretty grim.
06:45 Want to know something that isn't so grim?
06:48 How about traveling to Mars?
06:51 Well, we'll leave that story for another WHAT IF.
06:56 [MUSIC PLAYING]