Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari (aka Political Baaba)discusses about the role of Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha Election.
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00:00 Now, who will win 2024 is also largely dependent upon how the Modi factor plays out.
00:13 Friends, we have heard a lot about the Modi factor.
00:18 So what is the Modi factor?
00:20 The boost the BJP gets from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's personal political capital,
00:26 which took the party past the finish line in elections over the last few years, is often
00:32 referred to as the Modi factor.
00:36 Can the Modi factor be quantified?
00:39 Yes.
00:40 The way to put a number to this is to measure his ability to attract voters outside the
00:46 party's core vote bank and influence them to vote for the BJP.
00:51 We have seen that only 31% of the total voting population are loyal voters.
00:58 So 69% of them are non-loyal voters who have not been voting for the same party year after
01:04 year.
01:05 And he is able to draw not only the BJP loyal voters but also a large chunk of this non-loyal,
01:12 non-ideologically aligned voters towards the BJP.
01:15 A CSDS survey in 2014 shows that 27% of the respondents would not have voted for the BJP
01:24 if Modi was not the PM candidate.
01:28 This number increased to 32% in 2019, which means 1 out of every 3 voters voted for the
01:35 BJP because of the PM Modi.
01:39 Another important element is that Modi didn't only fetch votes for the BJP but also for
01:47 its allies in the last two elections.
01:49 BJP's allies got 20% of their votes in 2014 and 25% in 2019 due to the Modi factor.
01:59 So can the Modi factor be quantified?
02:02 How much votes did NDA or BJP get in the last two elections because of the Modi factor?
02:09 According to my research, which is derived from the numbers of CSDS, the NDA fetched
02:15 5.5 crore votes in 2014 due to the Modi factor.
02:20 This increased significantly to 8.5 crore votes in 2019.
02:25 And friends, there is a big significance of these numbers.
02:29 If you recall, in 2019, NDA's lead over UPA was 11 crore votes.
02:35 This means that the 8.5 crore votes which the Modi factor fetched the NDA accounted
02:42 for almost 80% of this lead.
02:45 So it can be said with quite a lot of certainty that the BJP won handsomely in both 2014 and
02:53 2019 largely because of the Modi factor.
02:58 So why is Modi so popular?
02:59 Why he is able to draw a lot of votes towards the BJP and its allies?
03:05 See Modi is a multifaceted personality.
03:09 He is not only a Hindutva leader, he has been able to establish his image as an OBC leader,
03:16 a champion of the poor, a development-oriented leader, a strong administrator, a business-friendly
03:23 leader, a nationalist, a person who will make India Vishwa Guru etc. etc.
03:29 And this appeals to a large array of voting segments.
03:34 And this quality is perhaps absent in any other leader in the political domain or the
03:39 landscape of today.
03:41 This works for the BJP well given the fact that a large section of the population is
03:47 not loyal but in fact they are neutral voters like we discussed earlier.
03:52 69% of the Indian populace is a neutral voter.
03:56 And hence all these qualities are able to attract a large chunk of neutral voters towards
04:03 the BJP as discussed above.
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