Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari (aka Political Baaba) discusses about the structure and composition of the Lok Sabha Election.
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00:00 Yeah, so now, who will win 2024 has its roots or in the composition or structure of the
00:13 Lok Sabha.
00:16 So let us first try to understand how the Lok Sabha is structured.
00:22 Top 5 states which is UP, Bengal, Bihar, Uttarakhand and Tamil Nadu account for 268 seats which
00:33 is 49% of the Lok Sabha strength of 543 seats.
00:39 The undivided UP including Uttarakhand has 85 seats, undivided Bihar including Jharkhand
00:46 has 54, Maharashtra has 48, West Bengal has 42 and Tamil Nadu has 39 seats.
00:54 Before the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, even the Andhra states would have been in
01:00 this list.
01:01 However, today, the political dynamics of both these states is fairly different.
01:08 Telangana's TRS or BRS as it is called now is having almost nil presence in Andhra whereas
01:18 Jagan's YSRCP and Chandrababu Naidu's TDP have a very limited role today in the politics
01:25 of Telangana.
01:27 Hence, undivided Andhra Pradesh has not been included in this top states list.
01:34 Any party or alliance needs to sweep 3-4 of these states to win the Lok Sabha elections
01:41 or emerge as the single largest party in the Lok Sabha.
01:45 Now let's look at the history of the last 4 elections and see how these 5 states played
01:51 an important role in the formation of the government.
01:55 In 2004, the Congress led UPA won 229 seats.
02:00 117 of these seats, which is 51% of its tally, came from these 5 states.
02:06 It swept Bihar, Tamil Nadu and won almost half of Maharashtra.
02:12 In 2009, the UPA won 262 seats.
02:16 104 of these seats, which is 40% of its tally, came from these 5 states.
02:22 It won majority seats in Tamil Nadu, Bengal and Maharashtra.
02:27 At that point of time, Mamata Banerjee was in UPA.
02:31 In both these years, UPA also swept Andhra, the undivided Andhra, which had 42 seats.
02:38 This also contributed to its victory.
02:41 Now coming to the Modi era.
02:43 In 2014, NDA won 166 seats of its 336th tally, which is 49% of its tallies, from these 5
02:53 states.
02:54 It swept majority seats in Bihar, Maharashtra and UPA.
02:59 Now coming to 2019, the NDA won 353 seats.
03:03 180 of these seats, which is 51%, more than half, came from these 5 states.
03:10 It swept again the majority seats in Bihar, Maharashtra and UPA and also did very well
03:16 in the state of Bengal.
03:18 So these 5 states are very important and will decide who wins 2024.
03:24 We will be discussing each of them in detail, devoting one episode each in the future.
03:31 [Outro Music]
03:35 [Outro Music]
03:45 (dramatic music)