Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari (aka Political Baaba) discusses about the constituents of the rulling NDA and the 28 member opposition I.N.D.I.A.
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00:00 Now, who will win 2024?
00:08 There are two big alliances which are shaping up, which will lock horns in 2024.
00:13 The BJP led NDA, National Democratic Alliance of 38 parties and a confederation of 26 parties
00:20 called the INDIA, Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance.
00:27 The Congress led United Progressive Alliance is along with a few regional parties has been
00:33 now rebranded as INDIA.
00:36 Now, let's see what comprises of these NDA and INDIA.
00:41 The BJP, the Shiv Sena which is a faction led by the Eknath Shinde, which is now the
00:46 original Shiv Sena as per election commission.
00:49 The NCP which is a faction led by Ajit Pawar, the AIADMK and the Lok Jan Shakti Party, the
00:57 party of erstwhile late Ram Vilas Baswan and both the factions of LJP, the Chacha and the
01:04 Bhatija faction are with the NDA.
01:07 Now, let's see who all are there in INDIA.
01:11 Primarily, Congress, the Nationalist Congress Party, the Sharad Pawar faction, the Uddhav
01:17 Thackeray faction of Shiv Sena, Mamata Banerjee's Tridamul Congress, Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi
01:24 Party, Nitish Kumar's Janta Dal United, Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janta Dal, Arvind Kejriwal's
01:32 Aam Aadmi Party and the left parties primarily consisting of CPM, CPI and others.
01:39 Now, the seat distribution, the leadership and the common minimum program are still sticky
01:45 points which need to be finalized by the INDIA.
01:49 There is also a block of non-Congress, non-BJP aligned regional parties.
01:55 These primarily consists of the Akali Dal of the Badals in Punjab, KCR's BRS, the Bharatiya
02:04 Rashtriya Samiti which was earlier called the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti, Naveen Patnaik's
02:09 Biju Janta Dal from Odisha, Jagan Reddy's YSRCP and Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam
02:17 Party.
02:18 Now, let us see how many MPs these two blocks have today.
02:23 The NDA currently has 332 MPs and INDIA 144 MPs.
02:30 In terms of vote shares, the NDA has 42.9%, so almost 43%, while INDIA has 37.5% as shown
02:41 in the graph below.
02:43 The non-aligned block, the BJD, YSRCP, TDP and Akali Dal have 48 MPs with a vote share
02:51 of 6.2%.
02:52 Now, BJP is the clear leader of NDA with 90% of the seats and vote share.
02:59 The Congress accounts for almost half of the vote share of the INDIA block and 35% of the
03:05 seats.
03:06 So it is clearly the largest party but not a clear leader as the regional satraps like
03:12 Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal do not formally accept its leadership as of now.
03:19 The NDA is largely dependent upon the BJP's performance because 90% of the seats and vote
03:24 share are accounted for by the BJP.
03:27 While INDIA is more representative because it has more parties with a bigger chunk of
03:34 seats and vote share.
03:36 Now NDA clearly benefits from the leadership of Narendra Modi, while INDIA block benefits
03:44 from the combined leadership of the Gandhis, Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav,
03:51 Arvind Kejriwal etc.
03:53 In 2019 elections, NDA had won 353 seats with 45% vote share while the Ostwil UPA led by
04:03 the Congress had won 91 seats with 27% vote share enjoying a lead of 18%.
04:11 Now this 18% lead is theoretically reduced to 5-6% only with this new grouping of INDIA
04:19 block 43% vs 37.5%.
04:24 Now in terms of absolute numbers, NDA was leading against UPA by 11 crore votes and
04:32 this has reduced to 3 crore votes primarily because of this new block of alliance which
04:39 has now been created.
04:41 However, this difference of 3 crore votes is accounted largely by the non-aligned parties
04:48 the BJD, Akali Dal, YSRCP and the TD.
04:53 Thank you.
04:54 Nitish Kumar.
04:55 Thank you.
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05:06 (dramatic music)
05:09 you