TSMC stock analysis.
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing released earnings last week and the stock dropped around 3%. At the latest share price, the company has a market cap of 520 billion dollars. It’s got 51 billion of cash and investments and 29 billion of long term debt so the enterprise value is 498 billion.
Revenue over the last 12 months is 72.6 billion with net income of 31.5 billion and adjusted ebitda of 49 billion. That means the stock is valued at 7 times revenue, 17 times earnings and 10 times ebitda. The company also pays a dividend of around 1.8%.
Although TSMC has grown revenues consistently over the last 10 years, the company reported a 23% drop in net profit in the second quarter and management gave a pessimistic guidance. They now think that revenue will be down 10% for the year with operating margins declining to 38%.
The main reason is that consumers are buying fewer goods in the face of inflation. When fewer products are bought, companies order less stock and when companies order less stock, TSMC gets fewer orders, leading to lower revenue.
However, more than half of TSMC’s revenue comes from chips of 7 nanometres or less. These advanced chips power the high-performance computers and smartphones that we’ve come to rely on. Once the cycle bottoms out and company inventory starts depleting, TSMC is expected to bounce back. Analysts expect 2024 revenue to rebound 20% to 80 billion.
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing released earnings last week and the stock dropped around 3%. At the latest share price, the company has a market cap of 520 billion dollars. It’s got 51 billion of cash and investments and 29 billion of long term debt so the enterprise value is 498 billion.
Revenue over the last 12 months is 72.6 billion with net income of 31.5 billion and adjusted ebitda of 49 billion. That means the stock is valued at 7 times revenue, 17 times earnings and 10 times ebitda. The company also pays a dividend of around 1.8%.
Although TSMC has grown revenues consistently over the last 10 years, the company reported a 23% drop in net profit in the second quarter and management gave a pessimistic guidance. They now think that revenue will be down 10% for the year with operating margins declining to 38%.
The main reason is that consumers are buying fewer goods in the face of inflation. When fewer products are bought, companies order less stock and when companies order less stock, TSMC gets fewer orders, leading to lower revenue.
However, more than half of TSMC’s revenue comes from chips of 7 nanometres or less. These advanced chips power the high-performance computers and smartphones that we’ve come to rely on. Once the cycle bottoms out and company inventory starts depleting, TSMC is expected to bounce back. Analysts expect 2024 revenue to rebound 20% to 80 billion.
#stockstobuy #stockstowatch #tsmcstock #overlookedalpha
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing released earnings last week and the stock dropped around
00:05 3%. At the latest share price the company has a market cap of $520 billion. It's got
00:11 $51 billion of cash and investments and $29 billion of long term debt so the enterprise
00:16 value is $498 billion. Revenue over the last 12 months is $72.6 billion with net income
00:23 of $31.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $49 billion. That means the stock is valued at
00:30 7x revenue, 17x earnings and 10x EBITDA. The company also pays a dividend of around
00:36 1.8%. Although TSMC has grown revenues consistently,
00:40 over the last 10 years the company reported a 23% drop in net profit in the second quarter
00:46 and management gave a pessimistic guidance. They now think that revenue will be down 10%
00:51 throughout the year with operating margins declining to 38%. The main reason is that
00:55 consumers are buying fewer goods in the face of inflation. When fewer products are bought,
01:00 companies order less stock and when companies order less stock, TSMC gets fewer orders leading
01:05 to lower revenue. However, more than half of TSMC's revenue
01:08 comes from chips of 7nm or less. These advanced chips power the high performance computers
01:14 and smartphones that we've come to rely on. Once the cycle bottoms out and company
01:19 inventory starts depleting, TSMC is expected to bounce back. Analysts expect 2024 revenue
01:25 to rebound 20% to $80 billion. Let's assume revenue of $67 billion this
01:31 year with a 15% growth rate going forward. That would result in $271 billion of revenue
01:37 in 10 years time and a 40% margin puts net income at $108 billion. Apply a 15x multiple
01:44 to that number gets us to a market cap of $1.6 trillion in 10 years time which works
01:49 out to an investment return of 12% per year, include dividends and that return should increase
01:54 to over 13%. And there's a chance that TSMC does better
01:58 than that. AI and electric vehicles mean that its chips will remain in high demand. Revenue
02:03 growth over the last 3 years is tracking at 22% per annum and the company's solid financials
02:09 mean it should be able to buy back stock. Of course a big risk with TSMC comes from
02:15 China. The FT reported this week that a record number of warships were spotted in close proximity
02:20 to the island and geopolitical risk is likely the reason why Warren Buffett, who holds a
02:25 huge amount of Apple, decided to sell his stake in the company.
02:29 The China threat provides a ceiling to TSMC's valuation and it's causing the company to
02:34 open facilities in the US and Japan. Even so, compared to Nvidia which trades at over
02:39 200 times earnings, TSMC looks like good value. That's why I rate the stock a strong buy
02:45 and I do hold some shares in the company. But these are my own personal opinions not
02:49 financial advice. For more detailed investing ideas make sure to visit our website overlookedalpha.com