Tesla stock analysis, July 2023.
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Tesla famously doesn’t spend on advertising, so their operating expenses are below 10% of revenue (R&D and SG&A). Despite what might seem like a high valuation, there’s a chance that Tesla does extremely well from here onwards. They are still ramping up manufacturing capacity, which will lead to future growth, their network with 45,000+ superchargers can be used to earn fees from other car manufacturers, the energy generation and storage segment is still in its early phase, and there is a lot of hype and hope around FSD (Full self-driving) capability.
#teslastock #stocks #investing #overlookedalpha
Join 9000+ investors: https://www.overlookedalpha.com
Tesla famously doesn’t spend on advertising, so their operating expenses are below 10% of revenue (R&D and SG&A). Despite what might seem like a high valuation, there’s a chance that Tesla does extremely well from here onwards. They are still ramping up manufacturing capacity, which will lead to future growth, their network with 45,000+ superchargers can be used to earn fees from other car manufacturers, the energy generation and storage segment is still in its early phase, and there is a lot of hype and hope around FSD (Full self-driving) capability.
#teslastock #stocks #investing #overlookedalpha
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Tesla reported earnings yesterday and the stock fell 10%. Based on the latest share
00:05 price the company has a market cap of $834 billion. It's got $23 billion of cash and
00:12 $7.8 billion of debt so the enterprise value is $818 billion.
00:17 Despite the drop in share price this was another solid quarter for Tesla. The company delivered
00:22 466,000 vehicles in Q2 with total revenues increasing 47% against the year ago period.
00:30 Adjusted EBITDA increased 23% to $4.7 billion and net income increased 20% to $2.7 billion.
00:38 That means trailing 12 month revenue now sits at $94 billion. Net income is $12.2 billion
00:45 and free cash flow is $6.2 billion. Just 10 years ago Tesla was doing only $2 billion
00:51 in revenue and now it's on track to cross $100 billion.
00:55 Part of the growth this quarter is a result of Tesla cutting prices on its models. But
00:59 this is still impressive performance, particularly given the difficult market conditions and
01:04 the sharp increase in interest rates.
01:07 And there were other bright spots too. Tesla's market share continues to increase and revenues
01:11 from energy generation and storage increased 74% to $1.5 billion. This is important because
01:18 if Tesla wants to be known as more than a car company it needs to generate revenue from
01:23 other higher margin services. Without higher margin products it's much harder to justify
01:29 Tesla's premium valuation.
01:31 The question is if this report was so good then why did the stock fall 10%?
01:36 The biggest reason is operating margins. Although revenues were up, lower pricing on cars meant
01:42 that operating margins fell to under 10% which is a 5% decrease from the year ago period.
01:48 As a result Tesla's operating income actually fell 10% from the previous quarter and net
01:53 income was 30% below the 4th quarter of 2022.
01:58 And this also means that Tesla's 10% operating margin in Q2 is no different to other automakers.
02:04 Lower operating margins are a big problem when the stock trades at such a high multiple
02:09 of 68 times earnings and 133 times free cash flow. In fact free cash flow at $1 billion
02:16 was 70% below the peak in Q3 2022.
02:19 Lastly, Elon Musk also said on the company earnings call that production in Q3 will be
02:25 lower than expected due to factory updates and that's going to cause some slowdown in
02:30 next quarters numbers.
02:32 All that said Tesla is operating in another league from other car companies. It's energy
02:37 packs and it's supercharger network are showing real growth and the Cybertruck which
02:41 should come out any day now looks like it's going to be a simply massive hit.
02:45 Let's assume Tesla manages to hit analysts targets of $160 billion in revenue in 2025
02:52 and then continues to compound revenues at 20% a year.
02:55 Then let's assume the company is able to operate at a 15% net income margin in 10 years
03:00 time. That means Tesla would be generating $688 billion in revenue in 10 years time and
03:06 $103 billion in net income. And a 25 times multiple would put the valuation at around
03:12 $2.6 trillion and that works out to an investment return of around 12% per year.
03:17 But it should be noted that this is quite an optimistic forecast. It relies on the company
03:22 compounding revenues over 20% for a decade, a 5% increase in the net income margin and
03:29 an earnings multiple higher than other car companies.
03:32 In other words Tesla is an incredible business but the valuation at this point leaves very
03:36 little room for error. For all these reasons I currently give the stock a neutral rating
03:42 but these are my personal opinions not financial advice and I do own some shares in Tesla.
03:47 For more detailed investing ideas make sure to visit our website overlookedalpha.com
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