#AskBQ | As markets trade lower, Centrum Broking's Nilesh Jain & Invest Shoppe's Ashish Kapur tells you which stocks to pick in today's dip. #BQLive
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00:00 Hi, thanks so much for joining in.
00:02 You're watching Ask BQ on BQ Prime.
00:03 My name is Alex Mathew and with me is Smriti Chaudhary.
00:06 Thanks so much for joining in.
00:07 Over the course of the next 20 minutes or so, we'll get all of your stock-related questions
00:11 answered.
00:12 Without further ado, let me introduce you to the two guests.
00:15 We've got Ashish Kapoor, the Chief Executive Officer of Investshop, as well as Nilesh Jain,
00:21 the Head AVP, Technical and Derivatives Research, joining in.
00:27 Thank you so much, gentlemen, for taking the time and pleasure as always to have you joining
00:32 in.
00:33 As we normally do on BQ Focus, let's focus in on one stock that has been in the news
00:39 and that is Nestlé.
00:40 Now, we know at this juncture that they will consider a stock split in a few days and the
00:47 stock is up in anticipation of that.
00:50 Ashish, I'll start with you, not just about this corporate action, which I think will
00:55 increase liquidity, but more to do with the stock and how you see the fundamentals.
01:00 And then I'll talk to Nilesh about what his view is.
01:04 Ashish, over to you.
01:06 Yeah, I think, see, as regards Nestlé, valuation is high.
01:11 You all know that, but valuation is justifiably high.
01:14 I mean, I'll tell you, I mean, the simple thing, the brand which they have and the kind
01:21 of distribution which they have is unmatched, unparalleled and cannot be duplicated because
01:28 you go to the remotest part of India, you go on some remote part in the Himalayas, if
01:34 nothing else is available, there will be Maggi noodles being made by someone.
01:38 So that is the kind of a reach which we're talking about, the kind of penetration, the
01:42 kind of brand recall, the kind of, you know, the inherent strength of the company.
01:46 So therefore, fundamentally, this is something which you have in your portfolio over the
01:51 years and has given you great money, will continue to do so.
01:55 So it's a no brainer kind of a stock we had in our portfolio.
01:59 And I think if you have it, don't ever think of ever selling it because there is, like
02:05 I said, there is, their strengths are not going to be duplicated or replicated at any
02:11 point in time in the possible future.
02:13 So they will remain the Maggi company which will continue to deliver 15-20% at least year
02:19 on year, at least 10-15 years.
02:22 All right.
02:23 Let's also take a technical check of Nestle then.
02:28 And Nilesh, what's the view on the charts?
02:29 Well, Alex, the structure is very strong.
02:32 The stock is trading well above its short-term and long-term moving averages.
02:37 And today it has almost kissed its previous all-time high mark.
02:41 And although today we have seen some amount of profit taking from the high level, but
02:44 the nature of the structure continues to remain on a positive side.
02:47 Structure-wise, if you look at the next target on the upside, that looks like it is heading
02:51 towards 23,500 to 24,000 mark.
02:52 And at current level, if somebody is already holding the long position, can continue to
02:58 remain long-ticking stop loss below 22,000, that's the cluster of support of 21 EMA, 50
03:05 EMA, that's placed exactly near about 22, 300 sort of levels.
03:08 So, that should be the stop loss and any decline can be a good opportunity to get into this
03:13 particular counter from a position point of view.
03:15 The target comes around 25,000.
03:17 All right.
03:18 So, that's the view on Nestle.
03:20 Moving on, let's take up some questions.
03:23 We have a question coming up from Piyush.
03:25 It's on our email handle and he's asking about the long-term view on Vedanta.
03:29 Now, the company has recently announced a demerger into six listed companies.
03:34 So, let's start with the fundamental view first.
03:37 Ashish, what are your views on Vedanta?
03:40 Well, I think, you know, there are two things to consider.
03:45 One is that, you know, right now in the Indian market, we have no direct soft choices, even
03:50 when it comes to materials and commodities.
03:54 And second is that I believe what is most important for any investor is the safety of
04:00 capital.
04:02 And that comes primarily from not only the business strength, but also the intention
04:09 of the management.
04:10 I mean, I mean, whenever you have some doubt about the management's intention or its shareholder,
04:16 you know, its focus on shareholder wealth creation, I think those talks should be avoided.
04:23 And unfortunately, Vedanta falls in the second category where the history has been that there's
04:28 always been a great potential, great promise, but the management has never had investor
04:34 shareholder, investor or shareholder value protection in mind.
04:39 I mean, there have been corporate actions taken with very little transparency.
04:45 There are debts created, which are against the interest of the shareholders.
04:50 So I would strictly say that despite whatever might happen or whatever might look on paper
04:55 as a great opportunity, I think it's clearly a stop to be avoided, whichever part of the
05:00 business which you want to do, which will take an exposure on whether it's oils, oil
05:05 and gas, ferrous, non-ferrous, metals, there are plenty of other opportunities available
05:11 in the market, in the Indian market itself, or much better governed companies or much
05:15 better companies with the clean track record of wealth creation for shareholders.
05:21 So for me, from my point of view, it's a clear avoid.
05:23 Okay, fair point.
05:24 And in fact, we will touch base with you, Ashish, once again, once we have clarity on
05:29 how the structure changes, once those six listed entities come up as well.
05:35 But we've got a few questions on WhatsApp as well.
05:38 Arjun has sent in a question on City Union Bank and a number of these banks have in fact
05:44 released their quarterly updates.
05:46 I'm guessing, Ashish, you had a view of some of this, but what's your view specifically
05:51 on City Union Bank?
05:53 I think, again, it's one of the banks which is having a good run.
06:01 And I think none of these small mid-cap banks will do very well, that's my view, the next
06:07 few years.
06:09 Because clearly the debt credit growth in the economy is picking up and most of these
06:13 banks have managed to get their balance sheet strength in place.
06:18 So I see a lot of growth happening in the mid and small cap banks and City Union is
06:22 one of them.
06:23 So I think, yes, it will remain volatile because it's a smaller company.
06:28 But if you are okay with that, I think stay invested, you could make a lot of money going
06:32 forward from here.
06:33 All right.
06:34 And Neelesh, what's your view?
06:35 What are the charts showing for City Union?
06:38 Well, the structure is not looking that promising.
06:42 We have seen good amount of correction, it is trading well below its long-term and short-term
06:47 moving averages.
06:48 The good part is that after this correction, it has reached its multi-month support zone
06:54 of 1.8 to 1.15.
06:56 So that's the only support sort of thing is clearly visible on the chart.
07:01 That should be the stock price.
07:02 If in case stock reaches 1.11 on the lower side, we can expect further downturn to continue
07:08 towards 110 to 105.
07:09 So it is better to stay away from a trading point of view.
07:13 There are better options available, companies like Petrol Bank, CSB, these are the few other
07:18 banks that we are liking and also Bandhan Bank.
07:20 So as of now, it is better to stay away for the time being.
07:24 All right.
07:25 We've got a question coming in on WhatsApp.
07:27 Rajesh Maheshwari, he has pointed out that he is a senior citizen.
07:31 He's writing in from Indore.
07:32 Thank you so much, Rajesh, for writing in and hopefully we'll be able to answer your
07:36 question.
07:37 His question is on MRPL, Mangalore Refinery.
07:41 He's got 500 shares at an average price of 73.6, gentlemen.
07:46 He's asking what is the short and the medium term outlook?
07:49 I will start with the fundamental view first and then we'll go to Nilesh on the charts.
07:53 Ashish, what's the fundamental view on MRPL?
07:56 Alex, unfortunately, I haven't tracked this.
08:01 I would not like to comment on it.
08:02 OK, fair point.
08:03 Let's take a technical view then on the charts.
08:06 Nilesh, how does it look?
08:08 Well, on a broader time frame, if you look at on the weekly as well as on a monthly time
08:14 frame chart, the stock is forming a big rounding bottom sort of formation.
08:17 And also cup and handle sort of formation can be seen.
08:20 So structure looks positive from a short term point of view.
08:24 It looks like the stock is heading towards 110 to 115.
08:27 That's 10 to 15 percent upside.
08:30 And if we look at it from a medium term point of view, the stock has the potential to retest
08:34 its previous all time high mark of 120 to 125 zone.
08:39 So keeping stop loss below 95, that should be the trilling stop loss.
08:42 The upside is very much open for 110 to 115 from a short term point of view and 125 from
08:48 medium term point of view.
08:50 All right.
08:52 Next up, we have a question from Akhilesh.
08:54 He's asking about views on UPL.
08:57 So let's take a long term view first.
08:59 Ashish, what do you think about UPL stock?
09:02 Well, I think it's a clear avoid.
09:07 I'm not a very different opinion from what I think most of the analysts in the market
09:10 are predicting.
09:11 Again, my listing comes from the fact that last many years, we have been hearing stories
09:19 about their taking over some company abroad, of their scaling up their operation in a big
09:25 way.
09:26 Nothing admitted as we look at it last three years.
09:29 It's a rank underperformer when it comes to the chemicals and agrochemical space.
09:33 And I think clearly there is something wrong because why when so many other companies are
09:39 doing so well, why this company continues to report very, you know, insipid numbers
09:45 and very, very lackluster performance when it comes to the financial numbers.
09:51 So I think in my mind, it's an avoid.
09:54 I think within the chemical, agrochemical space, there are many, many better ideas.
09:59 So why look at something which is continuing to disappoint investors?
10:03 If it ever does turn around its financial performance, we can have a relook.
10:06 But for the time being, from my point of view, it's a clear avoid.
10:11 All right.
10:12 So considering that that is such a strong view on the fundamentals, Nilesh, if we've
10:17 got viewers that have UPL limited, is there an exit price that you can help them with?
10:23 Well, the structure looks weak and clearly saloon right sort of structure can be seen.
10:29 So I would rather stay away from this particular account for the time being.
10:35 Any pullback towards 636.40 could be a good exit opportunity.
10:40 And the trend will turn positive if in case the stock takes out 660.11 on upside.
10:46 So till then, we can expect a pullback that should be used as an exit opportunity.
10:51 And if somebody wants to stay put, then keep a stop below 590 for the existing lock position
10:57 and exit on pullback.
10:59 OK.
11:00 We've got a question on WhatsApp from a viewer who is Anant.
11:04 Anant is writing in about KPR Mills.
11:07 And Ashish, this one's for you.
11:08 He's already bought at a price of 550 rupees.
11:11 And he's sorry, he's got 550 shares, apologies, at 80 rupees each.
11:17 And he's looking to hold for a period of five to seven years.
11:21 What should he do with this?
11:22 I didn't get the stock.
11:23 KPR Mills.
11:24 Well, I haven't checked it lately.
11:25 But what I do remember is that it is a well-managed company.
11:26 The growth prospects are very interesting.
11:27 So I think it's a good idea to stay invested for the long term in this.
11:43 Any quick views, Nilesh, on the charts?
11:45 Obviously, we're talking about holding for multiple years.
11:48 Well, it looks very strong.
11:51 It has been in a secular trend.
11:53 In last few years, we have seen a strong momentum as well.
11:56 Although in last one year, we saw some amount of consolidation and it is on the verge of
12:00 a fresh breakout.
12:01 That breakout is placed at somewhere near about 785 to 790 zone.
12:02 From a position point of view, I feel the stock has the potential to move towards the
12:03 three-figure mark, that's 1000 plus.
12:04 So stay put.
12:05 Keep a trading stop loss in order to protect your profit.
12:06 Keep a trading stop loss near about 720.
12:07 And if you're not sure, you can always look at the chart.
12:08 And if you're not sure, you can always look at the chart.
12:09 And if you're not sure, you can always look at the chart.
12:10 And if you're not sure, you can always look at the chart.
12:11 And if you're not sure, you can always look at the chart.
12:12 And if you're not sure, you can always look at the chart.
12:13 And if you're not sure, you can always look at the chart.
12:14 And if you're not sure, you can always look at the chart.
12:15 And if you're not sure, you can always look at the chart.
12:16 So stay put.
12:17 Keep a trading stop loss in order to protect your profit.
12:18 Keep a trading stop loss near about 720.
12:19 And immediately, we can expect the stock to move towards 850 and positionally 1000 plus
12:20 sort of target can be seen.
12:21 All right.
12:22 So there you have it.
12:23 Next up, we have a question from Netra and they're asking about the IT stocks.
12:24 Now, while the IT index has outperformed the benchmark gauge, that is not a benchmark
12:25 gauge.
12:26 That is not a benchmark.
12:27 That is not a benchmark.
12:51 So, how do you view the fundamentals?
12:52 How do you how are you viewing IT stocks?
12:53 And is it a good time to get into it?
12:57 Well, not the best of time, because I think two things.
13:03 One is that we have moved up a bit in the last couple of weeks.
13:06 I think maybe the great time was maybe in July, maybe when the other market hadn't moved
13:12 up, but IT was still lagging behind.
13:15 And second is that, yes, there are headwinds.
13:18 I mean, this is one sector which is clearly facing headwinds because a lot of the revenues
13:22 come from US and other Western markets where slowdown is, I think, quite real.
13:30 And a lot of corporates are cutting down on their expenditures.
13:34 So I think the headwinds are very real.
13:37 If at all you want to buy, I think wait for a decline or buy in a staggered way and buy
13:42 into only the front line, very well established or companies in which you track very well.
13:49 There are many mid-cap companies which are very well tracked, which are very well run.
13:54 So be careful about what stock you choose.
13:56 It's not that generally you buy and try and buy in a staggered way.
14:00 In a longer sense, IT cannot go anywhere but move up.
14:03 I mean, it's just that these headwinds will last for some time.
14:07 So try and buy in a staggered way.
14:09 In the long run, I still think that the Indian IT has a long way to go, but it will take
14:14 time.
14:15 So try and choose your stocks wisely and buy them in a slow and staggered way.
14:21 Any mid-cap stock picks in the IT sector?
14:27 Ashish, you talked about the mid-cap IT sector.
14:30 Yeah, okay.
14:31 So I think Tata, Alexey, Persistent Systems, not necessarily at these prices, but whenever
14:37 they come down, L&T Infosystems also, and also Mindtree, and there are a couple of names
14:47 which I can immediately think of.
14:49 But all these companies are to be bought on declines.
14:52 I think there has been a significant run-up.
14:55 And another counter which is not necessarily a mid-cap but can be very promising is HCL
15:00 Tech.
15:01 It's a bit of a laggard when it comes to large-cap IT, but I really see a lot of relatively under-performed
15:07 and under-low valuation here.
15:10 So HCL Tech could be the dark horse whenever the IT sector revives again.
15:14 All right.
15:16 One last question and then we'll close.
15:18 We've got a question from Mandar on sale, and this is on a technical level.
15:24 He's bought at levels of 100 on an average cost basis, and he's wondering whether to
15:31 hold at this juncture and whether it will reach 145.
15:34 Nilesh, on the charts, how does that look?
15:37 Well, structure looks very weak.
15:39 In fact, it has been one of the under-performers within the metal space along with Nalco.
15:44 So looking at the structure, it looks like it is heading towards 85 to 83 sort of levels
15:49 on the lower side.
15:50 So any pullback, I would rather suggest to use as exit opportunity.
15:55 On the upside, if at all we see any level near about 92 to 95, that should be a good
15:59 exit opportunity.
16:00 And better options available within metal space like Tata Steel, JPL, JW Steel, we have
16:06 a few other better options available.
16:08 You can switch your position.
16:10 But from the steel authority, I would rather advise to exit on pullback.
16:15 Okay.
16:16 Ashish, if you'll permit me, one last question is coming, and this is from Netra.
16:20 We've already spoken about the banking space.
16:22 You referred to City Union Bank, but we've got Canberra Bank and Bandhan Bank that she
16:27 wants to know about.
16:28 And we are heading towards the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting that
16:33 started today.
16:34 It will be at the end of the week.
16:35 She's wondering whether to wait for that.
16:37 We're widely expected to see a pause.
16:40 Does that have any bearing on these two counters?
16:42 Or would you suggest that you can go ahead and buy them?
16:45 Well, it could have some kind of a temporary effect.
16:51 I don't rule that out.
16:52 But I think when it comes to PSU Bank, my view, and it's been consistent over the last
16:58 more than one year, and it's a great story unfolding.
17:01 And I still see Canberra Bank and Bank of Baroda and even the smaller ones still having
17:07 a good run because there's never been, I think in the last 15 years, there's never been such
17:12 a good time for PSU Bank.
17:14 It's very clean balance sheets, great growth story going ahead, and deep undervaluation.
17:19 Some of the undervaluation has got corrected by the move which has happened over the last
17:24 one year.
17:25 But there is still relatively huge undervaluation, huge catch up to be done.
17:29 So yes, if you are a bit brave and don't get tattled by the volatility which will happen
17:34 with these PSU Banks, buy and stay invested.
17:38 At least the next one year looks very interesting.
17:40 And I see much higher levels for Canberra Bank.
17:43 Bundle Bank, I'm not too sure.
17:45 I think Bundle Bank, I would like to wait.
17:47 But Canberra Bank and other PSU Banks is a clear go ahead for my side.
17:52 All right.
17:53 So that's all the time we have for today.
17:56 Thank you so much, gentlemen.
17:57 I think you've answered a lot of questions and viewers.
18:00 Thanks for tuning in.
18:01 We'll be back tomorrow, same time, 11.30am.
18:04 Until then, stay tuned.
18:06 Lots more coming up at BQ Prime.
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