Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 Gold has been under great pressure in the last few weeks.
00:06 We have seen a decline of around $1,900.
00:11 For many reasons.
00:14 The most prominent one was the rise we have seen on the US dollar.
00:19 The rise in interest rates.
00:21 Expectations that interest rates will remain high for a long time.
00:26 But the most prominent thing we have seen is the rise in real interest rates.
00:33 These are the real interest rates.
00:36 If we look at it, the real 10-year returns are the same as the 10-year US bonds,
00:42 but the difference is in inflation.
00:44 This is what gives us what is called the tips today.
00:47 Today, these returns have reached above 2%.
00:52 We have not seen these levels until around 2008.
00:58 Today, we are testing them again.
01:00 If we notice this relationship in blue, which is the real interest rates,
01:06 it has reached below zero levels for a while.
01:10 But even after the pandemic, it has reached below the negative 1% level.
01:16 And then we have seen these big rises.
01:19 When we look at this relationship today, it is clear that it is a reverse relationship.
01:24 The higher the real interest rates, the more negatively the gold will be affected.
01:30 Why? Because today, the investor considers gold as one of its benefits and features.
01:37 It is a hedge against inflation.
01:41 But when the real interest rates are in a positive area and above 2%
01:49 this is very tempting for the investor who used to keep gold,
01:54 get rid of some of it, and then move on to these bonds.
01:58 Today, this is a long-term view.
02:01 If we take a closer look at this year and how the real 10-year interest rates have interacted with gold,
02:08 this relationship was also the opposite.
02:10 In the past two months, the relationship was not as strong.
02:14 But when we saw this big jump in interest rates,
02:19 this is what solved the gold with these reversals to below $1,850.
02:27 If we look at the chart today and what is happening with gold, this is what we notice today.
02:32 Of course, we have seen a test of the top levels twice.
02:35 The top level was at about $1,070 in early 2022 and then in mid-March of this year.
02:45 We have seen some selling pressure on gold.
02:48 Gold tried to hold at about $1,880.
02:53 It was trying to penetrate and then jump from these levels.
02:58 But when we saw this jump to $1,880, we saw strong selling operations on it.
03:08 Today, the investor is looking at the $1,800 levels that he has maintained throughout this year.
03:17 Will we see a penetration? Will this be a new opportunity to buy?
03:23 Of course, this is what the investors are looking at today.
03:28 If he maintains it, he can give the Saudi a boost.
03:31 But if he breaks the $1,800 level, there are fears that gold will continue to go down to the lowest levels in the past year,
03:39 which we reached in October, at about $1,650.
03:45 [MUSIC]
03:52 [MUSIC]
04:02 [MUSIC]
04:27 [FOREIGN]
04:37 [FOREIGN]
04:47 [FOREIGN]
04:57 [FOREIGN]
05:07 [FOREIGN]
05:17 [FOREIGN]
05:27 [FOREIGN]
05:37 [FOREIGN]
05:47 [FOREIGN]
05:57 [FOREIGN]
06:07 [FOREIGN]
06:17 [FOREIGN]
06:27 [FOREIGN]
06:37 [FOREIGN]
06:47 [FOREIGN]
06:57 [FOREIGN]
07:07 [FOREIGN]
07:17 [FOREIGN]
07:27 [FOREIGN]
07:37 [FOREIGN]
07:47 [FOREIGN]
07:57 [FOREIGN]
08:07 [FOREIGN]
08:17 [FOREIGN]
08:27 [FOREIGN]
08:37 [FOREIGN]
08:47 >> Right, it's going to depend on some things right now.
08:52 As you know, there's a strong dollar, the US dollar, and that's going to affect it.
09:01 And as you know, there's a strong dollar, the US dollar, and that's going to affect it.
09:11 And as you know, there's a strong dollar, the US dollar, and that's going to affect it.
09:21 And as you know, there's a strong dollar, the US dollar, and that's going to affect it.
09:31 And as you know, there's a strong dollar, the US dollar, and that's going to affect it.
09:41 And as you know, there's a strong dollar, the US dollar, and that's going to affect it.
09:51 And as you know, there's a strong dollar, the US dollar, and that's going to affect it.
10:01 [FOREIGN]
10:11 >> That's an excellent question.
10:28 And I think that's an excellent question.
10:31 And I think that's an excellent question.
10:34 And I think that's an excellent question.
10:37 And I think that's an excellent question.
10:40 And I think that's an excellent question.
10:43 And I think that's an excellent question.
10:46 And I think that's an excellent question.
10:49 And I think that's an excellent question.
10:52 And I think that's an excellent question.
10:58 And I think that's an excellent question.
11:04 And I think that's an excellent question.
11:10 And I think that's an excellent question.
11:16 And I think that's an excellent question.
11:22 And I think that's an excellent question.
11:28 And I think that's an excellent question.
11:34 And I think that's an excellent question.
11:40 [FOREIGN]
11:50 >> Pete Thomas, [FOREIGN]
11:55 >> Always good to be here.
11:57 >> [FOREIGN]