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00:00 I'm going to talk to Dr. Prapalak Kumsap, the former president of the Department of Economics, Thammasat University. Hello, Dr. Kumsap.
00:14 Hello.
00:16 Hello, Dr. Kumsap.
00:18 How do you see the new policy of giving money from the government?
00:25 There are three reasons why I think we should cancel the digital policy of giving 10,000 baht.
00:36 First, I think Thailand's economy is in a better situation after the COVID-19.
00:48 This year, the growth rate is not 3%, but next year it is expected to be 3.5%.
00:57 3.5% is a good number for Thailand's economy.
01:02 We have the potential to grow.
01:07 We don't need to increase the growth rate to 5%.
01:13 We are worried about the money flow.
01:20 This money flow will affect everyone in the country, whether they are rich or poor.
01:27 It is difficult for the poor to accept this because the price of goods is higher.
01:34 It is difficult for them to adjust.
01:36 This is what we should be worried about.
01:39 Secondly, spending 560,000,000 baht in one go will not only cause a deficit,
01:56 but also increase the burden of debt.
02:00 The total debt of GDP is 61.6%.
02:09 If we add 560,000,000 baht, it will be 65% of GDP.
02:18 It will gradually move to the new level, which is 60% of GDP.
02:26 The important point is that the increasing debt will become a burden to pay back.
02:34 When the inflation rate is higher, not only in Thailand but all over the world,
02:44 our debt burden will be higher in the future.
02:49 This is what we should be worried about.
02:56 We don't know how much more we will have to spend on our debt.
03:01 We have to be careful about the gap.
03:09 If we spend all our money on spending, we will have less opportunities in the future.
03:23 This is the second point about debt.
03:26 The third point is about the value of good deeds.
03:31 We can spend 10,000 baht on good deeds for people over 16 years old,
03:39 whether they are rich or poor.
03:42 We think that this is not a good value for them.
03:45 People with good status and spend 10,000 baht on good deeds,
03:51 I think it is not good.
03:56 It is not fair.
04:01 They don't want to spend on good deeds.
04:03 But if they are given, they will spend.
04:06 I wonder if they will spend more than 10,000 baht.
04:15 Because their income is quite high.
04:18 But for the poor or middle class, it can help.
04:23 The Prime Minister said that money is necessary.
04:27 We are not against him.
04:30 But I think that if everyone is given,
04:33 besides spending, there will be unethical or unethical actions.
04:39 There are three points.
04:44 We should consider adjusting or revising.
04:50 Or if we want to cancel, we can use other programs.
04:53 If the effect is still there, it is a good thing.
04:58 In the past, Mr. Setha posted on Facebook that giving money is not good.
05:10 It is better to do something else.
05:14 Mr. Thaksin said that giving money is a weak way of thinking.
05:22 In the past, he saw it as a 100-year-old scholar.
05:28 Do you think that the government should cancel or adjust the payment system?
05:34 From the previous payment, it will be for the people in real trouble.
05:38 If it can be canceled, it is good.
05:41 We should consider new programs.
05:45 For example, will we give money to people in real trouble?
05:51 Besides helping them, we should also pay them to stimulate the economy.
06:00 Secondly, the 4 km limit for the buyers and sellers.
06:09 Is there a possibility to reduce the limit?
06:17 At the same time, we should also reduce the use of money.
06:25 Some money may be used to help the economy.
06:31 I borrowed money from Mr. Setha and Mr. Thaksin.
06:39 I told them to use it to help the economy.
06:42 Or in other words, instead of giving them fish,
06:47 I told them to teach them how to catch and raise fish.
06:51 Is it better? I think it is good.
06:55 If the payment system is changed,
07:00 will you change the system to help people in real trouble?
07:06 It is not difficult.
07:09 The government has already made a policy
07:16 to help people in real trouble.
07:21 We can adjust the payment system.
07:24 We can change the name of the list.
07:27 I think around 10 million people can be adjusted.
07:33 Based on the information in the welfare program,
07:40 the government can adjust the payment system.
07:46 It is not difficult.
07:49 The government's welfare card also has many people in real trouble.
07:54 There should be an adjustment.
07:57 If there is an opportunity to adjust,
08:00 the people in real trouble should be taken out.
08:03 Those who are not in need should be taken out.
08:07 The government may not have to adjust the payment system for 10 million people.
08:11 Dr. Kha, the government has already spent 560 million baht
08:16 on the country's investment in the past year.
08:19 Is it worth it?
08:21 The government expects the GDP to increase by 5% next year.
08:25 If you think about GDP,
08:32 the government expects the GDP to increase by 4-5%.
08:38 If the government expects the GDP to increase by 1-2%,
08:45 is it worth it?
08:47 The answer is no.
08:50 We are not sure.
08:53 The scientists who have worked together believe that the money circulation is not as much as expected.
09:03 There are many reasons.
09:06 It is not very much.
09:08 First, there is a limitation in terms of spending.
09:11 You have to spend 4 kilometers per day.
09:16 Second, you only spend money on some necessary products.
09:21 This is a good thing, not a bad thing.
09:24 But it will limit spending.
09:26 The money circulation is not as much as many people expect.
09:32 The positive impact on economic growth may not be as much as many people expect.
09:40 Dr. Kha, is there a chance to open up the debate
09:44 about whether the people want it or not?
09:48 I think most people want it.
09:53 There is no need to open up the debate.
09:56 The Prime Minister said that most people want it.
10:01 I am not arguing.
10:03 Most people want it.
10:06 Free money like this.
10:08 As scientists, we cannot see it as a short-term effect.
10:13 We have to look at the long-term effect.
10:15 I emphasize that the word I use is "stagnation".
10:21 Sometimes, something short-term makes people happy.
10:25 But if it has a long-term effect, it should not be done.
10:29 The government has said that some scientists may not understand digital money.
10:37 They are arguing about the digital policy of 10,000 baht.
10:40 What is your opinion on this?
10:43 I understand it well.
10:45 The digital wallet.
10:48 At least, I understand that some people say it is like Bitcoin,
10:55 or cryptocurrency.
10:58 It is not the same.
11:00 But it is something that is quite easy to understand.
11:05 Because many people may not know that
11:08 the Bank of Thailand is using the Central Bank Digital Currency.
11:19 CBDC.
11:21 CBDC.
11:24 It is similar to the digital wallet.
11:29 It is the amount of money that people use, but there is a limit.
11:35 The Bank of Thailand is using it, but there is a limit.
11:43 For example, it is used by Thai employees,
11:49 and it is used in a limited area.
11:54 And they are trying to invest in something.
11:58 The Bank of Thailand wants to use this money.
12:02 But there are technical problems.
12:06 And there is a chance that it will be used for some purpose.
12:12 Such as information and management.
12:16 It is possible or not.
12:19 This money can be used as a digital wallet.
12:23 It can be used.
12:26 It is not new.
12:30 It can be called new, but it is something that they are trying to use.
12:36 Thank you very much, doctor.
12:39 Thank you.
12:40 Congratulations.
12:41 Thank you.
12:42 Goodbye.