F&O Show: Nifty Bank And Nifty Strategy For Investors
F&O Show: #IDBICapital's Brijesh Ail shares his top picks for F&O trade. #BQLive
Transcript
00:00 Hello and welcome. This is BQ Prime. I am Agam Vakil and you're watching the EFNO show,
00:04 a show in which we get you through all that is happening in Indian equity markets,
00:08 specifically derivatives. Well, as far as our own markets are concerned at the moment,
00:12 we've seen the Nifty move back above the mark of 19,600. That's where we have been seeing the Nifty
00:17 move around over the past few days. Of course, that said, benchmarks have been taking a step
00:23 forward and then a step backwards. That's exactly how things have been playing out
00:27 over the last few sessions, five to be precise. The real question is where do we head from here?
00:33 Well, in terms of what's happening as far as the markets go, and at least to give you an idea about
00:38 the kind of ranges that a lot of these traders are playing with, with respect to the levels,
00:44 let's take a look at where we have significant amount of open interest activity. So starting off
00:50 with the Nifty, what we are seeing as far as your weekly options are concerned, Max OI currently at
00:58 19,600 call and the 19,500 put. That said, it is a 19,600 call and put, which is also seeing a
01:05 substantial amount of addition in open interest. I reckon in today's day of trade, there have been
01:10 a lot of straddles being sold at that mark. Coming down to the Bank Nifty, the picture
01:17 isn't very different. At least in today's day of trade, we are seeing not too much in terms of the
01:23 range. It's still the same at between – based on maximum open interest, that's at around 44,500
01:29 on the higher end and 44,000 on the lower end. And in today's day of trade, both the 44,100 calls
01:36 and puts seeing a significant amount of open interest. The question really is can we expect
01:42 consolidation to come through or are we actually looking at some amount of – some kind of a trend
01:47 to follow through over the next couple of sessions? Well, for that, to understand that,
01:53 let's bring in our expert for today. We have Brijesh Ayl of IDBI CAP, and he looks at the
01:59 derivatives markets very closely. Brijesh, good morning and thank you so much for joining in.
02:04 Let's start with your view on the markets and the Nifty specifically.
02:08 Where are we headed as per your assessment? Yeah, good morning. So, to start with the Nifty,
02:15 I believe that we are right now consolidating in a range. So, the range for the Nifty on a broader
02:20 range is 19,300 and 19,800. But somewhere if you look at the last OPI trading session, we are
02:26 hovering on the 59 going average, which is somewhere to the 19,600 mark. My sense on the
02:32 market is that if you look at the overall sector, there are specifically IT and pharma and to some
02:40 extent, the reality of the sector which is supporting the market. Only because of the
02:44 bang Nifty, we are not performing. I think the downside remains quite limited, at least for the
02:51 current peak. Any close above 19,600 today is already trading at 19,613. So, I think closing
02:59 above 600 will talk of 19,800, 200 to 300 points on the higher side. The bias is extremely positive.
03:07 So, if somebody wants to take a position, the market should take a long at the current price.
03:10 19,500 would be directional, maybe a one or two-day kind of support for the Nifty. Only if
03:17 it breaks 19,500 on a closing basis, then I think this upside momentum will be voiced. I'm talking
03:23 of again a trading opportunity at the current level. So, I think one should take a long view.
03:29 Day after tomorrow, there is an expiry on the Nifty as well. But then suddenly, there are a
03:35 lot of put writings who are getting very active at 19,500. So, I think this is going to act as a
03:40 support. It's a trading opportunity. I think today's gains, I think it should stay on the market.
03:50 And closing above 19,600 might take the Nifty to another 200 to 50 points on the higher side.
03:56 SAURABH MADAAN: Okay. So, sustenance above 19,600 is going to be key for the Nifty at least.
04:02 But, Brijesh, what we saw yesterday was also a lot of unwinding in the bank Nifty puts around the
04:10 mark of perhaps 43,900, 43,800 thereabout. And today, once again, we are starting to see a
04:19 little more writing around those same levels. What is your assessment on the bank Nifty?
04:23 BRIJESH KUMAR From the morning data, the way the things have changed,
04:28 yeah, what you said is right. But then if I look at the current data, I am looking at 44,200 marks.
04:34 So, at 44,200, the call writers are getting unwinded. So, slightly the long positions are
04:41 getting built up at 44,200 in the bank Nifty. So, my sense is there will be a huge amount of
04:47 short covering will be there in bank Nifty. This is a matter of another 100.20 points on bank Nifty.
04:52 If bank Nifty stays above 44,200, then 500 to 600.8 bounce on the bank Nifty very much on the
05:00 cards. The trigger is 44,200. So, maybe I would like to even take a call during the day, maybe at
05:07 the end of the closing, the bank Nifty closes above 44,200. Then that's again a trading appointment
05:12 from the expiring point of view for tomorrow's session. So, one should go take a long position
05:18 is what I believe. Okay. Let's then shift focus to some of the stocks which are buzzing in trade
05:25 today. And right at the top, we have Escorts, which is up around 4.5%. We are seeing some
05:30 amount of longs building in there. We have City Union Bank, which is also buzzing in trade,
05:36 at least as far as the futures go. That's advancing by around 4%. We have gains in something like
05:42 Bharti Airtel and Bharat Electronics as well. All of them advancing with DLF, something that we're
05:48 going to touch upon later on as well, which is up around 3% as well. On the losing end, we don't
05:54 have too much to speak for, at least as far as futures and options are concerned. IndusInd Bank
05:58 showing marginal weakness at the moment, but the decline is less than 1%. But, Brijesh, I spoke
06:04 about DLF. I believe that you do have a view on this one. Besides that as well, can you take us
06:12 through all the stocks that are in your radar? I think I'm quite bullish on the DLF because if I
06:21 see the structure for the last 10-12 trading session, it has formed a kind of rounding kind
06:29 of pattern. And the reality as a pack is moving. And within the reality pack, from the FNO space,
06:34 the reality is DLF is something which is leading the trend. So, I have quite a positive view on
06:41 the DLF. The trigger has came on Friday. There was a very strong bullish candle. And even yesterday
06:47 when the market was down, the DLF was hardly correcting anything. And today, on the very first
06:52 thing in the morning, it has taken out the Friday session high. So, I think the DLF is quite
06:57 promising at this level. One should take a long position. The stop loss from the trading point of
07:02 view would be 542 and somewhere near to 577, 580 would be the trigger for the DLF. So, this is
07:08 again a 3-4 days kind of view for the DLF. So, that should be a buying opportunity. One should
07:13 look for the buying opportunity in the DLF. Okay. Besides DLF, Rajesh, what else are you looking at
07:20 in terms of stocks? Yeah. So, I think after DLF, I think IT is one space which is obviously the
07:28 result seasons are there. But Birla Soft is one space which is again given a very good clear cut
07:33 breakout from the daily time frame. Other parameters are also suggesting that there
07:39 could be some momentum, positive momentum, which will be again a trading bet. One should take the
07:45 long position at the current level. The stop loss for the Birla Soft would be 560 and I am looking
07:51 somewhere near to 545, 550 on the higher side. So, that should be again a trading opportunity in
07:56 the Birla Soft. Okay. And Tata Motors as well, where you have a view? I have a view because
08:04 this is one stock which is not breaking the 600 mark. Whenever it comes close to this zone,
08:11 there's always a buying interest seen in the Tata Motors. And today for the very first time,
08:15 in the first one hour candle, it has given a very strong volume breakout. So, I definitely believe
08:20 maybe today by today, end of the day tomorrow, there should be a very good amount of buying
08:24 seen in the close should be seen in the Tata Motors. One should take the long at the current
08:30 level, 626 would be the stop loss for the trade. And on the higher side,
08:36 648 to 650 should be the highest set target for the Tata Motors. Okay. Well, those are three long
08:44 calls coming in from Brijesh this morning in terms of stocks that you can keep on your radar and all
08:50 our positives coming through. At the moment, we are looking at the Nifty maintaining and sustaining
08:57 about 19,600. And as far as the Bank Nifty is concerned, well, that seems to be currently
09:03 comfortably above the mark of 44,100. So, as our expert has pointed out, with the possibility of
09:12 an up move, we continue to watch for some of the data points that we have discussed on the show.
09:18 But on that note, Brijesh, I'd like to thank you so much for joining us and taking us through your
09:23 views on the markets in the derivative space specifically. And we will be signing out on
09:28 that note, but don't go anywhere. There's lots more lined up. So, stay tuned to BQ Prime.
09:41 Thanks.
09:42 [END]
09:42 BQ Prime Interview #13
09:43 Page 2 of 8
09:44 [BLANK_AUDIO]