Political Expert Amitabh Tiwari talks about the state elections in the state of Rajasthan- the different parties in the state and their vote share. Episode 01- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEl_MvbSMwQ&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=1
Episode 02- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKKf34Zil9g&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&inde=2
Episode 03-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFUBWNKOyrU&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=4
Episode 04: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiDzTrxjTtg&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=1 Episode 05: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Vow6xUhV4&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=1 Episode 06: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMDPbDVnXZc&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=3
Data Sources:
CSDS National Election Studies
Axis My India Exit Polls
Elections Commission of India
www.indiavotes.com
News Reports and Author's Proprietary Calculations
About Amitabh Tiwari:
Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist & commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a corporate and investment banker.
@politicalbaba
#Rajasthan #AshokGehlot #AssemblyElection2023 #ElectionSimplified #AssemblyPolls #AmitabhTiwari #HWNews
Episode 02- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKKf34Zil9g&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&inde=2
Episode 03-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFUBWNKOyrU&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=4
Episode 04: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiDzTrxjTtg&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=1 Episode 05: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Vow6xUhV4&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=1 Episode 06: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMDPbDVnXZc&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=3
Data Sources:
CSDS National Election Studies
Axis My India Exit Polls
Elections Commission of India
www.indiavotes.com
News Reports and Author's Proprietary Calculations
About Amitabh Tiwari:
Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist & commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a corporate and investment banker.
@politicalbaba
#Rajasthan #AshokGehlot #AssemblyElection2023 #ElectionSimplified #AssemblyPolls #AmitabhTiwari #HWNews
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Who will win Rajasthan?
00:07 No government has come back to power in Rajasthan since 1993.
00:12 So for 3 decades, there has been a revolving door mechanism followed in the state.
00:18 The BJP, Congress, then BJP, then Congress, then BJP and then Congress again in the last
00:25 6 elections.
00:26 Wherever BJP wins, it has been winning big 120-160 seats.
00:31 Whereas the Congress has failed to secure a simple majority of 101 seats in the last
00:37 2 times it has won the election in 2008 and 2018.
00:42 Then it was able to form the government with the support of smaller parties like BSP and
00:48 Independents.
00:49 Now friends, if we go purely by the trend, which is fairly strong, it is the turn of
00:53 BJP to win this time.
00:56 Both the Congress and the BJP are facing factionalism.
01:00 There was an open spat between the CM Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot, though now the party
01:06 seems to have settled the dispute.
01:08 The high command has assured Pilot that who will be CM will be decided after the polls.
01:14 On the other hand, there is a long list of CM aspirants in the BJP, ranging from Vasundhara
01:19 Raje, former CM, to leader of opposition Rajendra Rathore, to state president CP Joshi, to ex-state
01:26 president Satish Pania, to central ministers like Gajendra Shekhawat or even the speaker
01:32 Om Birla.
01:33 The list is long.
01:34 Former CM Vasundhara Raje is miffed at the central leadership for not being declared
01:40 as the CM face, with the BJP deciding to contest the polls under the combined leadership of
01:47 these leaders, seeking votes in the name of PM Modi.
01:51 So will the trend break or will it hold?
01:54 Three states, Punjab, Kerala and Tamil Nadu exhibited a similar trend of alternate governments.
02:02 In all these states, the trend has been broken.
02:06 In Punjab it was broken in 2012, in Tamil Nadu in 2016 and in Kerala in 2021.
02:14 So, Gehlot has taken a leaf from all these states and learnt lessons, applying them in
02:19 his campaign.
02:21 He has been encouraging factionalism in the BJP unit, which is the lesson from Punjab.
02:27 He has initiated a number of social welfare programs, the lesson from Tamil Nadu, the
02:32 Amma model as you can say.
02:34 And he has been improving or increasing his communication, visibility and delivery.
02:39 He is a shy person but he has launched an extensive PR and publicity blitz, learning
02:45 from Vijayan, which is the Kerala model.
02:49 Now armed with his three-point plan, Gehlot hopes to give BJP a run for its money in Rajasthan.
02:57 On the other hand, the BJP is banking on the strong trend, the popularity of Modi which
03:02 is higher than other states because its a Hindi state and a strong organisation in the
03:07 state to defeat Gehlot.
03:09 It also hopes that Congress party's leadership issues would boil again closer to the voting
03:15 date, damaging the grand old party's prospects.
03:19 Now what are the opinion polls saying?
03:22 Opinion polls are divided on who is winning Rajasthan.
03:25 While ABPC voter predicts a BJP victory, the Times Now ETG predicts a close contest, the
03:31 IANS poll strat gives the state to the Congress.
03:35 A word of caution, early opinion polls do tend to get it wrong as candidates have not
03:42 yet been announced.
03:43 [music]