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00:00 What is the view of the IMF on the global economy, advanced economies and also the emerging economies?
00:07 Of course, we must point out that these forecasts do not take into account the Israeli war on Gaza
00:14 and what may be its implications, specifically on oil prices, thus on inflation and thus on economic growth.
00:21 As for the view of the global economy, the IMF expects the global economy to grow by 3% this year, from 3.5% in 2022.
00:33 But it expects that we will have a slowdown in 2024, notice, from 3% to 2.9%.
00:41 These forecasts are less than the forecasts of the previous IMF with 10 points.
00:48 If we move on to the topic of advanced economies, everyone was watching what was happening with the American economy,
00:54 specifically the consumer and the labor market.
00:56 There was a kind of stability and consistency, whether for the labor market or even for the American consumer.
01:04 This year's forecasts are 2.1% for the American economy, which was raised by July's forecasts by 13%.
01:12 We had a more positive view of this report.
01:15 In 2024, we are talking about 1.5% growth, which is also a rise or rise in July's forecasts.
01:23 As for Germany, the situation is different.
01:26 We were seeing that the German economic data was weak during the past period,
01:31 in fact, many factors, even the IMF's view today, are pessimistic.
01:36 This year's forecasts are 0.5%, and these forecasts are less than July's forecasts with 20 points.
01:43 The next year will have better performance, with 19% of the increases,
01:48 even though it will be less than the previous estimates of the IMF.
01:53 As for England, we have better forecasts for this year, but worse than the previous estimates for the next year.
02:01 Of course, the common factor between all these economies is the renewal of the monetary policy.
02:07 From the ECB, Bank of England, or even the Federal, we had rapid processes to raise interest rates, which were huge.
02:15 But the difference between these three economies is the economic nature internally,
02:21 and how the economy has dealt with this increase and renewal in monetary policy.
02:27 We talked about the fact that the American economy, globally, and among the advanced economies,
02:32 is the strongest one, especially after a series of monetary policy renewals.
02:37 We witnessed this until it was priced in the currency markets, for example,
02:41 the big shift towards the dollar, not only because the interest rates are high in America,
02:47 but because the American economy is more flexible.
02:49 In China's advanced economies, the most important factor is the 5% forecast for this year.
02:57 This is the goal of the Chinese government, which we have always wondered about,
03:02 whether the Chinese government will reach this level.
03:05 The IMF is seeing that the economy will reach this level,
03:09 but they noticed that they lowered their forecasts compared to July by 20%.
03:14 The factor that is putting pressure on this economy today is the real estate sector,
03:19 which is the most important sector for the Chinese economy, following many headlines recently.
03:25 For the next year, the forecast is 4.2%, much less than 5%, and even less than the previous forecast.
03:33 This situation for the Indian economy is 6.3%, which means that the Chinese economy will actually outperform this year.
03:43 Even for the next year, there was a debate about whether India will be the new China globally.
03:49 For Russia, these are the forecasts for the IMF. The inflation is expected to continue,
03:56 but today's forecasts are much higher than what the IMF had previously expected.
04:04 The economic risks include the real estate crisis in China, the debt crisis, the US dollar,
04:10 its strength and its rising prices, the oil prices, and the continuation of high inflation rates,
04:15 especially with the current geopolitical situation.