ITG 108 - Week 9 Preview with Phil Steele
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00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - In the gun episode 108, I'm Skylar Callen.
00:08 Wait, that's not Jed.
00:10 That's-
00:12 - What happened?
00:12 - That's Wesley Uler.
00:14 What's this guy doing on here on pill Friday?
00:17 That's all right.
00:18 We got Jed is missing his first ever in the gun episode.
00:22 He actually brought this up
00:23 at the end of the preview the other day.
00:25 108 of these is the first one he's ever gonna miss.
00:28 We won't hit, knock them too hard for it,
00:30 but Wes will pinch hit for us here today,
00:33 here on pill Friday, this episode of ITG always,
00:37 as always brought to you by our fine folks at FedOnline,
00:40 where the game starts.
00:41 And typically where we start here on this episode
00:45 of pill Friday is we go back and look at how Jed and I
00:49 did on our handicaps that we know we kind of create here
00:52 in the ITG sports book.
00:55 And we'll do that today.
00:57 We're gonna, Wes is gonna take us back
00:59 and look at how Jed and I did.
01:00 And then at the end of the show,
01:03 Wes and I will make our picks for West Virginia and UCF.
01:06 So Wes, tell me how bad I did.
01:08 - Skylar, stoked to be here,
01:11 stoked to catch up with you and Phil
01:13 and pinch hit or out of the bullpen
01:15 or whatever World Series reference we wanna use
01:17 for Jed here, right?
01:18 Shout out to our guy, Ken Kendrick,
01:20 one more time in the diamondbacks.
01:22 So yes, this is where I will wear the role of Jed,
01:25 albeit with a much fuller head of hair.
01:27 I'm sorry, Jed, I just had to.
01:30 I'm wearing the hat today though.
01:31 I'm wearing the hat.
01:33 Picks from last week.
01:34 The first thing that you and old Jedgar Allen Poe discussed
01:38 was WVU rush yards over under,
01:40 it was set at 185 and a half.
01:43 Sky, you went under, Jed went over.
01:46 The answer WVU had 226 on the ground.
01:50 And so the over hit and Jed got that one correct.
01:54 Second thing you guys discuss and picked,
01:56 will WVU run 45 times or more?
01:59 Will Oklahoma State throw the ball 40 times or more?
02:02 Both, neither, one or the other.
02:04 You went with Oklahoma State throwing it 40 plus times.
02:07 I think that would have been my pick as well too.
02:09 I liked that pick by you.
02:10 Jed went with neither.
02:12 And unfortunately, once again,
02:14 although maybe fortunate,
02:15 like, is this the part where I brag like,
02:16 oh, I'm two and O, you're O and two, 'cause I'm Jed.
02:20 But the answer was neither.
02:21 Both were close.
02:22 Okie State 36 passes, WVU 44 rush attempts right there.
02:27 One away, but the answer was neither.
02:31 And so Jed got that one correct.
02:33 I got that one correct as well too.
02:36 And the final pick from last week,
02:39 will the WVU Oklahoma State game be decided
02:42 by more than three and a half points
02:44 or less than three and a half points?
02:46 You guys both went less than three and a half.
02:49 And so you both missed that one, obviously,
02:52 as the Poclahoma State Cow Pokes came to Morgantown.
02:55 And won by two scores.
02:59 I mean, Skylar, I don't, you know,
03:00 I'm no football expert like Jed.
03:03 I didn't play in the NFL like Owen,
03:05 but usually when you give up 28 points at home
03:07 in the fourth quarter,
03:08 that's not a recipe to win or lose a close football game.
03:12 - No, it's not.
03:13 And I should have been smarter.
03:15 Like, even though I believe West Virginia,
03:17 Oklahoma State would be a tight game,
03:19 like to have that game decided by three and a half points
03:23 or everything over three and a half,
03:25 I should have just taken it over.
03:28 But that's just on me.
03:29 The one thing I was really surprised by
03:32 was I guess for them rushing for 200 plus yards.
03:36 - Buddy.
03:36 - Because the way they threw the ball down in Houston,
03:39 I just assumed, right?
03:40 And they still threw the ball a little bit,
03:42 but I was just assuming that they would kind of
03:45 take them out of their element in the run game.
03:47 Oklahoma State's done a really good job
03:48 as Jed laid out last week against West Virginia
03:50 in the run over the years.
03:52 I just didn't see it being possible.
03:53 But to run for over 200 yards and lose the game,
03:57 it's a first under Neil Brown.
03:59 - Skyler, they were nine yards away
04:01 from tying Barry Sanders' single game rushing record
04:05 at Oklahoma State.
04:06 Like, and from what we saw from the defense,
04:10 I think that's the most surprising part.
04:11 You know, what we saw from the defense,
04:13 that four game win streak, right?
04:14 But really kind of the Duquesne game excluded
04:16 is they're not a power five.
04:18 They're not even an FBS, they're an FCS.
04:22 But that run of, you hold Pitt to six points,
04:24 you really limit Texas Tech.
04:26 You really put the clamps down on TCU
04:29 after what was a big first half for the Horned Frogs, right?
04:32 That stat that Jed loved to bring up,
04:33 they got one yard in the third quarter, did TCU.
04:37 I think that's maybe been the most surprising part
04:39 of this two game losing streak,
04:41 is just after such a solid start to the season,
04:43 even against Penn State, they did a lot of great things.
04:45 This defense has got to get back together
04:47 and get that figured out before Central Florida tomorrow.
04:51 - Yes, they do.
04:53 - Without a doubt.
04:54 Well, partner.
04:55 - If they don't, obviously that can make West Virginia
05:00 four and four on the season after a four one start.
05:03 That would be not very fun for all of us involved,
05:08 including Neil Brown.
05:09 - Completely agree.
05:11 Completely agree.
05:12 So yeah, we'll get Phil's thoughts here coming up, right?
05:15 - Yep.
05:16 I'm going to go and bring in Phil here in just a second.
05:19 Once again, this episode is brought to you
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05:33 Hang tight.
05:34 We'll be right around,
05:35 we'll be back right around the break here with Phil Steele
05:38 to talk Big 12, Top 25, and West Virginia UCF.
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06:20 - All right, and we are back here with Phil Steele.
06:28 You can get his stuff at Barnes & Noble
06:30 and Books A Million.
06:31 And Phil, it's been quite a couple of weeks here
06:34 for the fine folks of West Virginia.
06:37 After a four in one start,
06:38 they've dropped a couple of games.
06:40 They're kind of down on their hopes right now.
06:42 And, but they've got a chance to bounce back
06:45 against UCF this week.
06:47 We'll talk about that.
06:48 We'll get your thoughts later on here in the show.
06:50 But Wes, go ahead and take it off.
06:53 We'll get here and started with the top 25.
06:56 - Yeah, absolutely.
06:57 Before we get to some big 12 and some WVU UCF thoughts,
07:01 Phil, maybe the most exciting game
07:03 from a national perspective of this weekend,
07:05 you've got Oregon at Utah, eight at 13,
07:08 a top 15 tilt out there in the Pac-12.
07:12 Utah coming off of that dramatic win against USC,
07:15 obviously at the Coliseum.
07:17 Oregon kept things rolling with a two score victory
07:20 over Washington State last week.
07:21 This is an exciting one.
07:22 How do you see this playing out?
07:25 - Yeah, and I think it's gonna live up to the potential
07:27 that you think that it will have here
07:30 because Oregon is one of the best teams in the country.
07:32 And, you know, I found it interesting
07:34 looking at some advanced lines.
07:36 You know, Oregon hosts USC and Washington hosts USC.
07:42 Later this year or later this week,
07:44 or no, Washington has to go ahead, USC,
07:46 but USC's basically regarded,
07:49 or Oregon's regarded as one of the top teams in the country.
07:51 And in my average game grades,
07:54 Oregon is actually still number one in the country.
07:57 You look at their offense,
07:58 they've got the powerful run game average
08:00 in 6.7 yards per carry.
08:02 They've got Bo Nix, who's hitting nearly 80% of his passes.
08:06 And defensively, they're holding opponents
08:07 to 87 yards per game below their season average.
08:11 Now, the thing is, Utah is almost unbeatable
08:14 at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
08:15 I think they've only lost one home game
08:18 in the last five years at Rice-Eccles.
08:20 They've had a lot of big wins there.
08:22 They've beaten Oregon here a couple of times.
08:24 Frankly, you know, when I look at this game,
08:26 I think it's gonna come down to the wire,
08:27 probably be decided by a field goal.
08:29 And it surprises me a little bit that in Vegas right now,
08:33 Oregon's a six and a half point favorite in this game.
08:36 So, I mean, that line seems a little heavy.
08:39 I think it's gonna be a great game.
08:40 I love the way that Vaki has been running
08:43 and receiving the converted safety.
08:45 He's still playing safety for him.
08:47 I like the fact that Bryson Barnes now knows
08:49 he is the starter on this team,
08:51 and did a good job leading that late drive
08:53 against USC last week.
08:55 So I think we're gonna have a great game
08:56 decided by a field goal.
08:58 I'll take the Ducks by three in this one.
09:00 - Bill, Pitt doesn't have very many wins on the season,
09:03 but one of those wins did come against a quality opponent.
09:06 That was against Louisville a couple of weeks ago.
09:08 They got a chance to sit on that loss
09:11 and stew in it for a little bit.
09:12 They come back, they're gonna be hosting
09:14 number 20 Duke this weekend.
09:16 And I don't know what the status of Riley Leonard is.
09:19 And that seems like a big question mark in this game
09:22 and how it could turn out.
09:23 - Yeah, Louisville is off that tough loss to Pitt,
09:26 but I think it's a really good situation
09:28 for Louisville this week against Duke.
09:30 When you look at Louisville, even in the Pitt game,
09:34 they had a 444 to 288 yard edge,
09:37 a 28 to 13 first down edge.
09:40 Jack Plummer's having a fine year,
09:41 hitting 63% this year.
09:43 They've got the run game with Jowar Jordan,
09:45 and they've got the defense as well.
09:46 And as you mentioned,
09:48 I don't think Riley Leonard's gonna play this week.
09:50 If he does, he's not 100%.
09:52 You know, once he went out in the second quarter,
09:54 or in the third quarter against Florida State last week,
09:57 Duke only had 35 yards offense after that.
10:00 So I think they really are a team
10:02 that's on their second straight road game,
10:04 taking on the Louisville team off a bye.
10:06 I definitely like Louisville in this one to win it,
10:08 probably by more than a touchdown.
10:10 And you know, when you look at Duke this year,
10:12 while their defense has been playing great,
10:14 they gave up 422 to Clemson.
10:16 They gave up 381 to Notre Dame.
10:18 They gave up 420 to Florida State last week.
10:21 I like Louisville by over a touchdown in this one.
10:23 - Bill, let's go down to SEC country
10:26 in Georgia, Florida, right?
10:28 One of the more storied rivalries
10:30 in the history of the sport.
10:32 But you've got two programs that have been
10:34 in different places over the last couple years, obviously.
10:37 Georgia has had their way in this one.
10:39 You've got a Florida team playing better football
10:41 since that kind of, that embarrassment,
10:43 that tough loss they took to Kentucky.
10:44 They've won two straight since then.
10:46 Any chance that the Gators give the Bulldogs
10:49 some trouble here down in Jacksonville?
10:51 - Yeah, I think they will give them a game.
10:54 You know, anytime you take away a Brock Bowers,
10:56 who's been your key offensive player,
10:58 you gotta think the offense is gonna struggle a little bit.
11:00 And as, you know, Florida, the amazing thing is,
11:04 if you look at after that Kentucky game,
11:06 you know, Billy Napier's under fire and can Florida win?
11:09 A lot of people don't even realize
11:11 Florida's five and two this year.
11:13 You know, they actually have a pretty good record.
11:15 Now they have lost two road games
11:17 to Kentucky and Utah, games they didn't fare well in.
11:20 And it would concern me if Georgia's defense
11:22 just tees off like they did against Kentucky
11:24 a couple of weeks back.
11:26 But I think when you look at Georgia,
11:27 this is gonna be a game where they learn
11:30 how to run that offense without Brock Bowers,
11:32 who's been their key offensive player.
11:34 And I think Florida's got the offensive line
11:36 and defensive line to keep this one closer than expected.
11:40 I still have Georgia winning by 10, 13 points in this game.
11:44 I think they are the better team and get the win.
11:47 But I think Florida keeps it closer
11:49 than the Vegas odds makers expect.
11:51 I believe the number right now, 14 and a half.
11:54 That half point could turn out to be pretty valuable here.
11:58 - Bill, up to the Big Ten, Ohio State hitting the road
12:01 to take on the Wisconsin Badgers.
12:02 And over the years, Wisconsin's been known
12:05 to kind of be a thorn in Ohio State's side,
12:07 especially late in the year and big time title races.
12:10 But this is a different type of Wisconsin team
12:13 with Luke Fickle at the helm.
12:15 They're not a high powered offense,
12:16 but they're gonna have to score some points
12:19 to be even able to have a chance in this one.
12:21 Ohio State has not given up more than 17 points
12:23 in a game this year.
12:24 Does Wisconsin get over that mark
12:26 or do they get shut out down or shut down here once again?
12:30 - Yeah, and right now I've got Ohio State
12:32 rated the number one defense in the country.
12:34 They're holding opponents to 119 yards per game
12:36 below their season average.
12:38 They've held six of their seven opponents
12:40 to season lows this year.
12:41 That is a legitimate defense.
12:43 But I like the situation for Wisconsin.
12:46 Go back to last week, Ryan Day was imploring
12:49 the home crowd to be loud and get fired up for Penn State.
12:53 That was definitely their A game last week.
12:56 And now it's a little bit of a let down situation.
12:58 Going on the road, Wisconsin's got two losses.
13:00 I don't think they're as fired up for Wisconsin
13:02 as they were for Penn State last week at home.
13:05 And the Badgers gained some confidence
13:07 with that last minute comeback against Illinois.
13:09 They've got Braylon Allen, who's having a hell of a year
13:11 running back.
13:12 And while they lost Tanner Mordecai,
13:14 their top quarterback two weeks ago,
13:17 Mordecai only had three touchdown passes on the season.
13:20 Braydon Locke, the Mississippi State transfer,
13:22 had two touchdown passes last week.
13:24 So I think this Wisconsin team,
13:25 it's going to give Ohio State a game.
13:27 I like the Buckeyes to come out with the win,
13:29 but I like Wisconsin to keep this one closer than expected.
13:33 All right, there's some of Phil's thoughts
13:35 around some big games in the top 25.
13:37 Let's go into the Big 12 now.
13:39 The Sooners off of a dramatic victory against UCF at home
13:45 last week, Phil, where they needed a two-point conversion
13:48 stand there, if you will, to keep that one from potentially
13:51 going to overtime.
13:52 They head now to Lawrence.
13:53 I think you mentioned Florida a quiet 5-2.
13:57 I think you could kind of say the same thing about Kansas.
14:00 Is Oklahoma ready for this one?
14:02 Is this last trip to Lawrence for obviously
14:04 the foreseeable future?
14:06 Did they win comfortably?
14:07 Or you think the Jayhawks can hang around and make
14:09 the Sooners sweat a little bit?
14:12 Yeah, and if you take a look at the series history,
14:14 Oklahoma has won the last 18 games in this series.
14:18 And believe it or not, every single win
14:21 has been by double digits.
14:22 So I like that factor going in Oklahoma's favor this week.
14:25 And then the other one would be, if you go back
14:27 and look at that UCF game, take a look
14:29 at the first quarter of the game.
14:31 UCF's first four drives, I believe
14:33 they had one first down and three three and outs.
14:36 Oklahoma, meanwhile, had three long drives.
14:38 But they settled for two field goals
14:40 and actually missed both of them.
14:42 So they had the potential to be up big in that game
14:45 after the first quarter, kept playing with their food
14:48 a little bit, left UCF in the game, and UCF came back.
14:50 And as you mentioned, almost bit them
14:53 with that two-point conversion at the end,
14:55 which could have tied it.
14:56 I like Oklahoma's defense.
14:57 They're holding opponents to 66 yards per game
14:59 below their season average.
15:01 I'm not wild about Kansas' defense.
15:03 In fact, in Big 12 play, they're giving up 5.1 yards per carry.
15:07 Each of the last three games, they've given up over 200 yards
15:11 rushing.
15:11 So I think Oklahoma's going to be
15:12 able to establish a run game, let Dylan Gabriel play
15:15 loose and free.
15:16 I don't think Jalen Daniels will play in this game.
15:19 It's probably be Jason Bean once again.
15:21 And with this series history, I like
15:22 Oklahoma to win this one, as usual, by double digits.
15:26 Phil, Houston has been involved in a couple
15:29 of interesting endings over the last couple of weeks.
15:31 Obviously, the Hail Mary.
15:33 Dana Holgerson was not very happy with the officials
15:36 toward the end of the Texas game.
15:38 But they fell short.
15:39 They played better than I expected.
15:42 They got Kansas State this week.
15:43 It was really seemed to kind of turn the corner
15:46 and has kind of re-entered themselves
15:48 as a big piece of this Big 12 picture.
15:51 How do you see this one playing out?
15:53 Yeah, and that's another one where Texas jumped out
15:55 to a 21-0 lead.
15:56 And you're thinking, OK, it's a walk in the park.
15:58 Maybe they let up a little bit.
16:01 And then Houston came back, played a really good game.
16:03 In fact, they outgained Texas for the game.
16:06 Like the way Donovan Smith is playing, he's got a 16-4 ratio.
16:10 But this is going to be a tough test for them
16:13 because Kansas State is just dynamic at home.
16:15 I mean, they are 8-1 against the spread as a home favorite.
16:18 Last week, they took on a really good TCU team.
16:21 And guess what?
16:22 Their head coach, Chris Klyman, was upset after the game
16:26 because they didn't really have a great second half
16:28 against TCU.
16:30 They led 27-3 at the half.
16:32 They won the game 41-3.
16:33 And Klyman's upset, said they didn't put them away enough.
16:36 So if Houston gets down 21-0 to Kansas State,
16:40 I think K-State steps on their throat,
16:41 much like they did against TCU.
16:43 This is just a really strong Wildcat team at home,
16:47 laying under three touchdowns.
16:49 I like Kansas State to win this one by over three touchdowns
16:52 this week.
16:52 And I think they'll keep playing in the fourth quarter.
16:55 And you know, the other thing I like about K-State
16:57 is since they've started adding Avery Johnson to the offense
17:00 at QB, they've got two really good quarterbacks.
17:02 I like the season Will Howard's having,
17:04 but Avery Johnson gives you that dynamic run threat as well.
17:08 So they've got a two-headed monster at QB.
17:10 I like K-State to win this one by over three touchdowns.
17:13 At the risk of sounding a little redundant,
17:16 another quiet 5-2 team, BYU.
17:19 They head down to Austin to take on Texas for the one
17:23 and done Big 12 matchup between those two programs
17:26 before the Longhorns are off to the SEC.
17:29 Could this be a scary one for Texas, Phil?
17:32 You know, BYU, I know they've had some good results,
17:34 some good showings, some not so great showings as well, too.
17:37 Do you think they can go down there
17:39 and give Texas a game in Austin?
17:43 Yeah, a surprising stat for you.
17:44 The last five times these teams have met,
17:47 BYU's won four of them, including a win here in Texas,
17:52 40-21 the last time they traveled there in 2013.
17:55 And Texas' lone win in the series has been by one.
17:59 But watching BYU this year,
18:01 they're sort of doing it with smoke and mirrors, aren't they?
18:03 I mean, they are minus 160 yards per game in conference play,
18:08 and yet somehow have won two of those games.
18:10 And against Arkansas, they were outgained by 143 yards,
18:13 came out on top.
18:14 For the season, they're minus 95 yards per game.
18:17 They have no run game.
18:18 They average 79 yards on the ground,
18:20 just 2.8 yards per carry.
18:22 And the defense is good, not great.
18:24 They're giving up -- They're letting opponents
18:25 have 13 yards above their season average.
18:28 Meanwhile, Texas, I think they may have learned their lesson,
18:31 jumped out to that 21-0 lead last week against Houston,
18:34 then let them back in the game.
18:35 So it was sort of a letdown spot
18:38 coming off the Oklahoma game, coming off a bye.
18:40 I think they'll be back to true form.
18:42 Now, they don't have Quinn Ures here,
18:44 but I watched Malik Murphy this spring,
18:47 and he looked great at QB.
18:49 He's got the strongest arm on the team.
18:51 He's a big boy, can throw it.
18:54 And generally, when teams are without their starting
18:56 quarterback, it's what I call the quarterback injury system.
18:59 The running backs play harder.
19:01 The offensive line plays harder.
19:02 The defense plays harder.
19:04 And I think we're going to see Texas
19:05 to win this one very comfortably this week.
19:07 BYU is, in my mind, a smoke and mirrors 5-2 right now.
19:12 Texas is a legitimate national title contender.
19:14 I like Texas to win this one by over three touchdowns.
19:17 Texas is in good shape in that quarterback room.
19:19 They also got Arch Manning in there
19:21 as the third quarterback, too, so, my goodness,
19:23 a good problem to have if you're the Longhorns.
19:26 Iowa State at Baylor.
19:27 How about this?
19:28 Beck, the son of former West Virginia
19:30 tight end Anthony Beck, he's got the Cyclones playing well.
19:33 They're 3-1 in conference play, and I think after that loss
19:36 to Ohio on the road, everyone just kind of wrote this team
19:39 off, didn't expect much from them, but here they are.
19:41 They're sitting at 3-1 in Big 12 conference play.
19:44 They go on the road to Baylor this week,
19:46 which is typically kind of a hard place to play,
19:48 but Baylor's only two league wins
19:51 are against the two worst teams in the Big 12 as it stands.
19:55 Yeah, and I'm a little surprised that Baylor at home this year
19:58 is just 1-4.
19:59 You would have expected them to have a better record.
20:01 The Texas Tech game was very disappointing,
20:04 but looking at the Texas Tech game a little bit closer,
20:06 I mean, they lost 39-14, but the yards were pretty even.
20:10 First downs were even.
20:11 Texas Tech tacked on a couple of scores.
20:13 The problem with Baylor in that game
20:14 was they kept getting stopped on fourth down,
20:16 giving Texas Tech a short field, and they paid the price for it.
20:19 Now, last week, they played a much better game
20:21 against Cincinnati, but, of course,
20:23 in Iowa State's last game,
20:24 they sort of dominated Cincinnati on the road,
20:26 so I do feel right now Iowa State
20:29 is the better team coming in,
20:31 but this is one of those circle-the-wagon games for Baylor.
20:34 You know, they're coming off a bye,
20:35 or they're coming off the win against Cincinnati.
20:38 They're at home. They can't afford another loss,
20:40 and I like the way that Blake Chapin's playing.
20:42 Remember, Chapin missed a couple games earlier in the year,
20:44 so frankly, I can't make a pick on this game.
20:46 I like both teams.
20:48 I think both teams are going to finish the season strong.
20:50 I'm going to flip a coin on this one,
20:53 because Baylor's at home.
20:54 Iowa State's a slightly better team,
20:56 so I'm going to call it a coin flip game.
20:58 I'm going to let you guys pick this one.
20:59 Go ahead. Pick this game for me.
21:01 Oh, gosh. I'll take care of it.
21:02 I'm with you. I'll go Baylor at home.
21:05 Yeah.
21:06 I would like to steal your phrase here, Phil,
21:08 and call it a popcorn game,
21:09 but I think I would maybe lean to Iowa State
21:14 just because I can trust their defense,
21:15 and I don't know.
21:17 Blake Chapin, even though he hasn't thrown a pick this year,
21:19 just has not played up to the expectations
21:22 that we all thought he would, so.
21:24 Awesome. Awesome.
21:26 It is a popcorn game in my mind.
21:27 I agree with you.
21:30 Well, Phil, last big 12-1 for you
21:32 before we get to the Mountaineers and the Knights.
21:35 Maybe a tale of two different teams here, right?
21:37 Cincinnati, who's really struggled five straight losses
21:40 since that upset win at Pitt.
21:42 Oklahoma State, who a lot of people,
21:45 you know, I think myself included,
21:46 were writing off after that South Alabama loss.
21:49 They now have clawed back to a 5-2 record
21:51 and have rattled off some wins here.
21:53 Oklahoma State keep that rolling.
21:55 Any chance that Cincinnati can kind of get
21:57 their first big 12 win and get back feeling good
22:01 and getting things moving in the right direction?
22:02 How you see this one playing out
22:03 between the Bearcats and the Cowboys?
22:06 Well, as you guys recall, back before that Kansas State game,
22:09 I said it was a circle-of-the-wagons game.
22:11 Oklahoma State's got a great shot at the upset.
22:13 They got the upset.
22:14 The next week, I had them over Kansas,
22:16 and then last week, I said it's going to be
22:18 a down-to-the-wire game, and it was.
22:20 It was a really good game, 27-27, the fourth quarter,
22:23 and then Oklahoma State, Ollie Gordon just got loose,
22:26 and then, of course, that stopped on downs,
22:28 turned things around, but this is a really good
22:30 Oklahoma State team.
22:31 It's hitting their stride.
22:33 They've got the schedule to make a lot of noise
22:34 in the big 12 this year.
22:36 I'm just going to keep riding the Cowboys.
22:37 When you look at Cincinnati, I thought they were dominated
22:40 at home two weeks ago by Iowa State.
22:42 They have struggled this year, opening up 0-4 overall.
22:45 Frankly, I'm surprised that Vegas actually has the number
22:48 at Oklahoma State, 7-1/2.
22:49 I would have made it double digits in this one.
22:51 They are tough at home.
22:53 They are tough at night.
22:54 I like Oklahoma State to win this one comfortably.
22:57 So here it is, West Virginia, UCF.
23:00 The Mountaineers have lost two in a row.
23:02 They are reeling.
23:04 Their backs are on the ropes.
23:05 They got a tough game this week, as UCF,
23:07 it's their homecoming game.
23:09 You expect a big crowd down there at the bounce house.
23:12 They're looking for their first big 12 win.
23:14 You don't want to be the program that gives two teams
23:17 their first big 12 win.
23:18 They already did that.
23:20 They've already given that opportunity up to Houston.
23:23 In the tackling, Phil, it has been atrocious
23:25 for West Virginia these past two weeks,
23:27 and that feels like it could be a problem again this week
23:29 when you factor in UCF and all the speed that they have.
23:33 Does West Virginia get back on track,
23:36 and do we just look back at that Oklahoma State game
23:39 after this week and say, "You know what?
23:40 That was just a really good Oklahoma State team
23:42 that's starting to find its stride,"
23:43 and West Virginia gets back on track this week,
23:46 and there's nothing to really panic about?
23:47 Where do you see this game
23:49 between the Mountaineers and the Knights going?
23:52 -Yeah, and, you know, this one,
23:54 the Vegas line surprises me a little bit,
23:56 the fact that UCF's a touchdown favorite for the game
24:00 because I actually feel West Virginia
24:01 is a slightly better team.
24:03 Now, UCF is tough at home, so I would have made the line
24:06 maybe UCF minus three,
24:08 but being a seven-point favorite in the game does surprise me,
24:10 so I like West Virginia plus the points, no doubt about it,
24:13 and I do think it's going to be a high-scoring game.
24:15 As you mentioned, West Virginia's had some problems
24:17 tackling. John Rhys Plumlee is back.
24:19 They have a lot of speed on offense.
24:21 They can score, but on the flip side of the coin,
24:23 West Virginia's got a dynamic run game
24:25 with Donaldson and Green,
24:27 and you look at what UCF's allowing in Big 12 play this year.
24:31 They're giving up 256 yards per game on the ground,
24:35 5.7 yards per carry,
24:37 so I think West Virginia will be able to slow down
24:39 that UCF offense,
24:41 be getting, you know, the fast-paced offense
24:43 because they'll be able to run the football
24:45 and score as well,
24:46 so I think it's going to be a higher-scoring game.
24:48 I think they're going to be trading punches
24:50 all the way to the end,
24:51 probably decided by a field goal.
24:53 I think West Virginia's got an excellent shot
24:54 at coming out of there with the win,
24:56 and I definitely like the fact
24:57 that they're a full touchdown underdog in this one.
25:01 Yeah, I do as well, too, Phil.
25:02 You know, I think there was a lot of that chip
25:04 on WVU's shoulder when the season started
25:07 and, you know, being picked to finish last in the Big 12.
25:09 You rattle off four straight wins.
25:11 Maybe you start to feel a little good about yourself,
25:14 and you lose some of that nastiness,
25:15 some of that edge.
25:17 Two straight losses now.
25:18 Maybe flip that in the other direction.
25:21 Last one I've got for you, you know,
25:22 you mentioned WVU running the football
25:24 and being able to have success there.
25:26 It does feel like, you know,
25:28 during that four-game win streak for the Mountaineers,
25:30 the trenches on both sides of the football
25:32 were a big part of that.
25:33 They were able to run the ball.
25:34 They were able to limit the opposition on the ground game
25:36 and get after the opposition's quarterback as well, too.
25:39 Do you see a distinct advantage
25:42 for either team in the trenches on this one
25:44 when you look at O-line, D-line?
25:45 Could that be an X-factor Saturday afternoon?
25:49 Well, I definitely like West Virginia's offensive line
25:51 versus Central Florida's defensive line.
25:53 I think that's their biggest edge in the game,
25:56 and it's one that should help.
25:57 Now, since Latham went out at linebacker,
25:59 I haven't seen the front seven be as dominant
26:02 as it was earlier in the year.
26:04 So that is a little bit of a concern
26:05 because UCF can run the ball.
26:07 I don't see West Virginia having the advantage there,
26:10 but I don't think their disadvantage,
26:12 defensive line versus offensive line,
26:14 is as much as West Virginia's advantage
26:16 is offensive line versus defensive line.
26:20 Yeah, Phil, well, if you didn't know,
26:21 we're a little stitious around here.
26:23 Not super stitious, just a little stitious.
26:25 So if Jed, for some reason,
26:27 the Mountaineers get back on track this week
26:29 and put up 100 points,
26:30 Jed's going to be officially kicked off this show.
26:32 So...
26:35 You'll no longer be talking to Jed on Fridays,
26:37 but we thank you so much for joining us again this week.
26:40 It's always a blast, and we'll be chatting next week,
26:43 hopefully, after Mountaineer win.
26:45 You can't be a football fan if you're not super stitious.
26:48 I'll tell you that much. That's right.
26:49 And a lot of fun talking to you guys, as always.
26:53 Really enjoy my Thursdays with you guys.
26:56 Thanks, Phil. Yes, Phil.
26:57 Thank you so much.
26:58 We'll be right back here on Indigo.
27:00 We're going to make our picks here for West Virginia UCF
27:03 in the ITG Sportsbook segment here of the week.
27:06 So hang tight. We'll be right back.
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28:09 - All right, so that was fun, as always,
28:10 with Phil Steele.
28:12 Wes, always a good time to hear from the best
28:16 in college football.
28:17 Your first time to hear from him.
28:18 - Skyler, I was gonna say, I mean, you know what they say.
28:21 You never forget your first time, and yeah.
28:24 Listen, I don't care if you're our age, right?
28:26 I mean, you're in your 20s, correct?
28:28 - Yep. - I am correct on that, right?
28:30 I'm 32, so my early 30s.
28:32 You know, Owen is a little bit older than me.
28:34 Jed is obviously the more seasoned one on this podcast.
28:38 I don't care what age group you are.
28:39 If you're a college football junkie,
28:40 I think you always gotta love hearing from Phil Steele.
28:43 Just the knowledge that that guy has
28:45 from top to bottom is incredible.
28:46 He's so prepared, he's so well-versed,
28:49 and yeah, so that was a lot of fun.
28:50 I will never forget my first time
28:52 catching up with Phil Steele here on the podcast.
28:55 - Yeah, I mean, it's insane every week
28:57 how he pegs these things.
28:59 Jed and I just sit back and laugh at this,
29:00 'cause I mean-- - He's gotta be
29:02 in those meeting rooms in Vegas, right,
29:03 when they're picking the spreads?
29:04 It's like he's tapped into that.
29:06 - He's gotta be, and when I think he's
29:07 in the same meeting rooms as Jed
29:09 when we do these picks at the end of the show,
29:11 'cause I'm not doing anything in these things.
29:13 I think I've not hit a pick in the last three weeks, so.
29:16 - Oh, geez.
29:18 Well, maybe I'm your good luck charm.
29:19 - Yeah, Wes, give me,
29:20 I'm going to a different sports book this week,
29:22 so Wes, tell me what we're picking this week.
29:24 - All right, we got three questions again to pick
29:29 that I will stand in for Jed, and if I do well,
29:31 maybe I'll have to pop into the episode next week
29:33 and talk some trash.
29:34 If I do poorly, I'll just have to disappear
29:36 and pretend this never happened,
29:38 and it was just artificial intelligence doing my voice
29:40 and what was actually Jed.
29:41 The first one here, Garrett Green has averaged,
29:45 over the last two games, a combined 402 yards
29:48 of total offense between his rushing and his passing.
29:51 Dang, that's impressive when you read it out loud.
29:54 Central Florida, UCF, has held four Big 12
29:57 starting quarterbacks they've faced so far
29:58 to an average of just 239 total yards on the ground
30:03 and in the air between the passing and the run game.
30:05 So question number one for you, Sky,
30:08 will Garrett Green finish the day
30:10 over under 275 combined yards in the air and on the ground?
30:15 - When I saw this initially,
30:18 I thought it was going to be like 290, 295,
30:22 so for that alone, I guess I'll just go with the over.
30:25 I think he's, they're starting to find some rhythm
30:27 with this passing game, and especially downfield,
30:29 like EJ, Horton, Devon Carter,
30:31 they're starting to come to life a little bit.
30:33 Cole Taylor seems like he's ready for a bounce-back game,
30:36 so I think he could get 260 or so through the air,
30:40 and if he can do that, I have no concern whatsoever
30:43 that he can get another 30 on the ground,
30:45 which he wouldn't even need that much,
30:46 but yeah, I'm going to take the over here.
30:49 - I think so, too.
30:50 Listen, I'll admit, this is one of those
30:52 that has the "too good to be true" type feel to it.
30:55 - Right, there was a little fishy about this one.
30:56 - And again, Vegas always knows.
30:58 But, I mean, if I'm, you know, Garrett went over
31:01 100 yards on the ground last week.
31:03 I mean, if he goes for 70 on the ground,
31:06 75 on the ground this week,
31:07 and then 200-some through the air, yeah.
31:11 Listen, I'm going to go over as well, too,
31:13 and I'm going to caveat this right now.
31:15 If he doesn't go over, I don't know how we win this.
31:18 I don't know how we win this.
31:19 I mean, unless we win another 17-6 type slugfest
31:22 like we did against Pitt,
31:23 and I just don't see that happening, that's a problem.
31:26 So I'm going to go over. - He's the offense
31:27 right now.
31:28 - I'm going to go over, 'cause he's the offense right now.
31:30 I'm going to go over, because I at least want to live
31:32 in cautious optimism, in perpetual hope here
31:36 for the next 24 hours or so before this game gets going.
31:40 So yeah, give me over.
31:41 We'll both go with the over.
31:42 Garrett Green to finish with more than 275 combined
31:46 passing and rushing yards.
31:48 Question number two here, Mr. Callahan.
31:51 Since that was a Garrett Green question,
31:53 we'll omit him from this one.
31:55 Which of these two Floridians will score a touchdown
31:58 in his return trip to the Sunshine State?
32:01 C.J. Donaldson, of course, from Miami.
32:04 Traylen Ray from Tallahassee.
32:06 Or option C, both?
32:08 Option D, neither.
32:10 Now this is an interesting one.
32:12 - This is a tough one, 'cause C.J. hasn't really
32:14 ran the ball well over the last couple of games.
32:16 He's really got to get on track here for West Virginia.
32:21 Traylen Ray has shown some flashes here and there.
32:25 You just feel like at some point during the last,
32:27 latter half of the season, he's going to start
32:29 to really burst through and kind of make his presence known.
32:33 But I'm going to go, I'm going to go C.J.
32:36 Because quite frankly, I think they need him
32:38 to get into the end zone more than once.
32:40 - Yeah, you know, it's funny you say that.
32:43 That was my, oh, that was my same exact thought process
32:47 was they just need C.J. to score.
32:49 That means the run game's probably having success, right?
32:51 That means that they're probably getting down
32:53 to the red zone and having one of those eight, nine, 10,
32:55 11 play drives that ends with C.J. punching it in,
32:58 you know, from three or four yards away,
33:01 something like that.
33:02 And I think they need that to happen.
33:04 I'm going to go,
33:07 I'm going to go with neither.
33:13 As much as I hate, as much as I hate doing it,
33:15 I'm going to go with neither.
33:15 I think this is going to be another heavy green game.
33:19 I think he'll have a rushing touchdown.
33:20 I think he'll have two passing touchdowns.
33:23 One of those is going to Devin Carter.
33:25 So that takes one off the board.
33:27 I would really like to pick Traylen Ray.
33:29 I don't like what's going on with C.J.
33:33 And listen, I'm not saying that he's not going to do
33:35 anything or anything like that,
33:36 that I'm expecting him to completely fall off a cliff.
33:39 I just, until I see him get back in that end zone,
33:41 I'm going to hold, I'm not going to hold my breath here.
33:45 - And Traylen's just, he doesn't get enough targets
33:47 for me to take that chance.
33:48 - And that could change.
33:49 That could certainly change on Saturday,
33:50 but that's why I'm going to go with neither.
33:52 As much as I don't want to go with neither,
33:55 I think Garrett Green gets a rushing touchdown.
33:56 Garrett Green throws for two touchdown passes as well too.
34:00 And you know what, maybe let's get a pick six
34:03 in there as well.
34:04 A little defensive touchdown, if I'm going to call my shots.
34:07 Four touchdowns for the Mountaineers on Saturday,
34:09 but I don't think either of those two, unfortunately,
34:11 are going to be finding the back of the end zone.
34:14 Although of course I hope that I am wrong.
34:16 - All right, Skylar, we got just a couple minutes left
34:19 in this one.
34:20 Final question here that our guy Jed has picked.
34:24 Question number three, a defensive question
34:26 about a few former Florida high school standouts here
34:29 on the other side of the football.
34:31 Which one of these things happens?
34:34 A, Aubrey Burks from Oak Ridge, Florida intercepts a pass.
34:38 Davion Hawkins from Lauder Hill, Florida records a TFL.
34:44 Jacoby Spells from Fort Lauderdale records two tackles,
34:48 two or more tackles.
34:50 Or C, the catch-all answer, either all of the above
34:53 or none of the above happens.
34:56 So this is an interesting one, the way that Jed worded this.
35:01 - Yeah, I almost went with none
35:03 because Jacoby Spells really hasn't played a ton.
35:06 He's playing more as the season goes on.
35:08 Aubrey Burks hasn't played great last week.
35:12 Hawkins, maybe, I'm going to go with Hawkins, I guess.
35:17 They need to get more TFLs.
35:19 They need to create more negative plays.
35:20 I don't know who it's going to come from.
35:22 I'm just going to go out on a limb here and say,
35:24 Day Day Hawkins gets in the backfield.
35:26 - It's funny, that was the first one I thought too.
35:29 You know, while the quarterback pressures
35:31 and sacks and hurries haven't been what they've needed to be
35:33 for the Mountaineers, they're still getting a few TFLs.
35:36 I think they had four total TFLs,
35:39 if I'm remembering correctly, against Oklahoma State.
35:42 So that does seem to be the, you know,
35:44 if I'm betting with my head here, that would be the answer.
35:48 I'm going to try and speak one into existence here again,
35:50 kind of like we did with Garrett Green though.
35:51 I'm going to go Aubrey Burks, because I agree with you.
35:55 You know, he missed, or yeah, right.
35:57 Had the, sorry, had the injury against Houston, right?
36:01 Am I correcting that?
36:02 Or no, sorry, injury was against TCU.
36:05 Missed Houston and then didn't play his best
36:07 against Oklahoma State.
36:08 So, you know, he gets hurt.
36:09 He has some time off.
36:11 He comes back in against a good Oklahoma State offense.
36:14 I think it was understandable
36:16 why he struggled a little bit last weekend.
36:19 I know, you know, Jed and I talked about this
36:20 on the preview episode though.
36:22 When you're reeling a little bit as a team,
36:24 what you need is you need your best players
36:26 to put in their best performances.
36:27 You don't need some unknown guy to step up
36:29 and come out of nowhere.
36:30 That's great, but what's more realistic
36:32 is your best players playing at an A level.
36:35 And they need that this week, particularly on defense.
36:38 They need Beanie Bishop, Sean Martin, Lee Koba.
36:41 They need those guys to put in A type performances.
36:44 They also need that from Aubrey Barks.
36:46 I think after missing a game
36:48 and not having his best performance, he bounces back.
36:51 So I will go with A, Aubrey Barks intercepts a pass
36:54 against UCF, speaking it into existence, baby.
36:57 - And again, if you didn't hear Wes
36:59 at the beginning of this,
37:00 if all of these picks are right, these are his picks.
37:03 If not, we're gonna just throw it towards Jed.
37:05 - If not, we're gonna laugh at Jed
37:07 and say, "What were you thinking last week?"
37:08 - Exactly, come on, pal.
37:10 So anyways, that'll do it for us here today.
37:13 - This has been fun, thanks for having me, man.
37:15 - Yeah, absolutely.
37:17 And Wes and I, we've been talking off air
37:19 about maybe doing some basketball stuff
37:21 this upcoming season.
37:22 We haven't really nailed those plans down just yet,
37:24 but keep an eye out for that.
37:26 We'll talk about that here as the season gets closer,
37:29 which is technically next week, but we'll figure it out.
37:32 - 10 days away, nine days away, something like that, yeah.
37:34 - So anyways, thank you guys for watching
37:37 Phil Steel Friday here on "In the Gun."
37:39 If you haven't yet, I don't know what you're doing,
37:41 but go to YouTube and hit that subscribe button,
37:44 hit "In the Gun" podcast.
37:46 Also on Twitter @InTheGunPodcast, we've got the preview up.
37:50 You can go as far back as to the Big Daddy episode
37:52 kicking off UCF where we really talked about Oklahoma State.
37:56 And Wednesday, we made our Big 12 picks for the week.
37:59 So make sure you sign up, compete against us,
38:02 have a chance to win that autographed Owen Schmidt
38:04 rookie card.
38:06 We're still looking for that first guy to go for four-four,
38:08 or gap, that could go four-four-four.
38:10 So thank you guys for watching,
38:13 and we'll be back next week to talk with Big Daddy
38:16 here on "In the Gun."
38:17 (door slams)
38:20 [BLANK_AUDIO]