هل الحروب دائماً ما تتسبب بارتفاع في التضخم؟ وما هي العوامل التي تحدد هذا؟
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00:00 Usually wars have a huge impact, so will the war we are witnessing now have a huge impact?
00:08 Everyone compares what is happening today to the year 1973 and the war of 1973,
00:15 but in practice we have many differences, whether in the economic environment or even in the oil markets.
00:21 Let's go back to the beginning of this war and how it affected a number of principles.
00:29 In the first two weeks of this war, we have seen a rise in these risks.
00:34 First, if we look at the oil prices, we had increases in the first two weeks of the war,
00:40 which were approximately 7.2%.
00:43 If we look at the gold markets, we also had increases of 8% in the first two weeks.
00:52 If we compare these increases with the events related to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait,
00:59 during this invasion we saw an increase in oil prices of about 15%, while gold prices rose by 6%.
01:05 Notice that the oil prices were higher at the time, for factors we will talk about later.
01:10 As for the different principles, we saw a kind of pressure and a regression in the risk-taking.
01:17 The interest rates for the last ten years rose by more than 5%
01:22 with the price of more debt being issued to finance the war.
01:30 This is what raised the interest rates.
01:33 As for the US dollar, we have seen it acting as a safety net.
01:39 The question today is about the battle between central banks and inflation.
01:43 To what extent this war could feed inflation.
01:48 It all depends on what happens to oil.
01:51 We remind you that after this price increase, we have seen a regression in oil prices.
01:57 It seems that the investor and the trader are no longer afraid that this war will cause a big cut in subsidies.
02:04 It is the opposite of the picture we saw in 1973.
02:11 Notice the war we have seen in this period.
02:16 Just by announcing the Gulf states to prepare oil exports to any country that supports Israel,
02:24 we have seen an increase in oil prices.
02:26 These increases were on a large scale.
02:29 Oil prices rose from $3 to about $12 because of this embargo.
02:37 These increases, which we have seen, first increased inflation by less than 3% to about 12%,
02:45 which led to a recession and then to what is known as stagflation.
02:49 Therefore, everyone was watching the movements of oil in this war and how it was compared to this period.
02:56 However, we must remember that the year 2023 is not at all like the year 1973.
03:03 First, we are talking about a strong dollar, not a weak dollar as it was previously.
03:08 Second, the issue is related to oil to a large extent.
03:12 Until now, at the beginning of the war in 2023, the war between the Palestinians and the Israelis,
03:17 there was a fear that Iran would enter as a major party in this war.
03:22 Therefore, there may be a closure of Hermos Dam and we may have a cut in subsidies.
03:26 This did not happen.
03:27 Therefore, it did not cause the prices of oil to continue to rise.
03:31 Therefore, today it is not possible to predict what will happen later.
03:36 However, the economic events and even the geopolitical tensions are different from the year 1973.
03:43 However, in all cases, it represents a major challenge for the central banks.