When will we see the first snow in major cities along the I-95 corridor this year?
Last winter, some of the biggest cities of the northeastern U.S. didn't have snow for months beyond the average. But when can we expect snow for the winter of 2023-2024?
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00:00 We want to talk about what comes next for our major I-95 cities.
00:04 So I don't want to do this all alone.
00:06 I'm going to bring in AccuWeather lead long-range expert Paul Pastelok
00:09 so we can go through what comes next for the season.
00:12 Paul, thanks for joining us this morning.
00:14 Thanks, Christine.
00:15 Glad to be here.
00:16 Of course, always happy to have you.
00:17 Let's start with this.
00:18 Let's go through the cities and when we should
00:21 see, according to the historical average, that first snowfall of the year.
00:25 Yeah, well, you look at the averages.
00:27 And most time, like Boston, and you're looking at probably
00:32 about the end of November, early December,
00:35 when you get your first snowfall.
00:37 And then farther down the 95 corridor, it's more like middle of December.
00:41 Washington, DC, mid to late December.
00:43 But you just have to go back to last year.
00:46 And we were way, way beyond these averages.
00:50 In fact, New York City not seeing their first measurable snowfall
00:53 until February 1.
00:54 So the averages, we were way off last year.
00:57 Hopefully, this year, it comes in a little quicker.
01:00 Yeah, hopefully, this year we can at least feel like winter for a minute.
01:03 On that note, you know what, Paul?
01:05 Let's go city by city.
01:06 We'll start out with Boston and go through what our folks in Boston
01:09 can expect as we head into this winter.
01:11 When, in theory, could we get that first snow?
01:14 Yeah, it's always hard to predict snowfall.
01:17 But now trying to predict when the first measurable snowfall is going to be
01:20 is very difficult as well.
01:22 And it's not guessing.
01:23 I mean, we look at research.
01:24 We look at past years.
01:25 And we're kind of concentrating on El Nino years.
01:28 And what we've seen is kind of a mixed bag with El Nino years
01:30 on when that first snow is going to happen.
01:32 Now, we've had some sleet in the area today.
01:35 And this is the concern.
01:36 There's going to be two systems, one next Tuesday and one after that, that
01:39 could bring a chance for some flurries.
01:41 But I don't think it will amount to too much.
01:43 It's late November, early December.
01:44 There's a big change in the pattern that I think
01:47 takes place after Thanksgiving.
01:48 And that could bring our first measurable snowfall in the Boston area.
01:53 Now, let's go from Boston to New York.
01:55 First of all, I'm sure that many folks around Boston
01:58 would be very excited for a few flakes.
01:59 And I think the folks maybe going for a wintertime stroll in Central Park
02:03 might feel the same.
02:04 What do you think, Paul?
02:04 How's it looking in the city that never sleeps?
02:06 Well, New York City, again, their average is around mid-December.
02:10 We're thinking more, again, you're going to be sitting there waiting
02:12 and waiting and waiting and waiting, probably
02:15 till like early to mid-January before we see some measurable snowfall.
02:18 But the risk here is that even this month,
02:22 there could be a couple of disturbances that slide down.
02:24 It gets cold enough at night that you could
02:25 get a little band of flurries or snow that gets close to the city.
02:28 But I think that's going to be mainly north of the city
02:30 that it does accumulate.
02:32 Now, let's talk about further south.
02:33 Cities like Philly, Washington, DC, historically not quite as much snow
02:37 as what we get in New York or, dare I say, Boston.
02:40 Do we think that Philly's kind of on that same trend
02:42 as we look through the next few weeks?
02:44 I think it looks better for this year.
02:45 And as far as the next few weeks goes, I still
02:48 think they're going to be too far south to get any accumulating snow.
02:52 It's just not going to be cold enough, I believe.
02:54 Even though we're going to have some sneaky fronts come down from the north,
02:57 I just don't think it's cold enough.
02:59 It should be better this year from last year, of course,
03:02 not getting hardly anything last year.
03:04 But again, you've got to watch late November, early December time period.
03:07 I think that's more of a threat north.
03:09 We're kind of still leaning towards probably later on into the winter season
03:14 before we start seeing our measurable snow in Philadelphia.
03:16 All right, one last one for you, Paul.
03:18 I'm going to keep grilling you for about one more minute here.
03:21 Let's take you to the nation's capital where, look, in theory,
03:24 we could see some snow this year.
03:26 But gosh, last year, it's like we set the bar so low
03:29 that any snow would be maybe a joy for people.
03:32 Well, this is actually the hardest one to forecast for,
03:35 because El Nino brings southern track storm systems.
03:38 And so if we get enough cold and systems keep coming and coming and coming,
03:43 it's going to be very risky.
03:45 This is a very tough forecast.
03:47 And so we have a near to above normal snowfall for--
03:49 I could see more if we get two or three of these systems
03:52 to come farther north.
03:53 As far as the early time period, it's probably
03:56 going to be sometime either--
03:57 you can get one in mid-December.
03:59 But it's more likely as we get into January
04:01 that we're going to start seeing things change.
04:03 Well, Paul, if I had to have someone on my team for a tough forecast,
04:05 it's going to be you.
04:06 All right, let's wrap things up here.
04:09 Paul, always appreciate your insight as we look forward to the next season.