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00:00 So the numbers of the US inflation are less than expected, whether monthly or yearly,
00:07 whether for the headline CPI or the core, which is far from energy and food prices.
00:13 These numbers related to the headline CPI were a regression from 3.7% to 3.2% in October.
00:21 The reading was less than expected, and even if we look at the core numbers, it was less than expected, whether monthly or yearly.
00:30 What contributed to this regression?
00:33 We are actually talking about 3 sectors.
00:35 The first sector is the effect of oil prices or the effect of oil, the effect of energy.
00:41 We had regressions in the sector of energy and the effect of oil prices, which was 2.5% monthly.
00:50 The second sector is cars, whether the prices of used cars or the prices of new cars, which were a big monthly regression.
00:59 The third sector is the most prominent one, which we have been following during the past period, which is the shelter.
01:05 We also had a monthly reading of 0.3% after we saw that the reading of September for this sector in particular was about 0.6%.
01:17 Now the question is, if these regressions continue, will they continue with us in the coming period?
01:22 This is related to two main sectors.
01:25 The first is the energy prices, if they continue to be in the regression, and the second is the housing.
01:30 Because if we look at the movement of the housing sector over the past few months, there were many fluctuations.
01:37 The problem is that this sector, the shelter, is part of the service sector, which is the most difficult sector in terms of reducing inflation rates.
01:54 Specifically, we are not talking about housing prices, we are talking about rents, which are not considered to have a high sensitivity to high interest rates.
02:06 I would like to point out that after these figures were released, we have seen increases in US stocks,
02:12 the returns of US bonds on all phases, short and long term, and dollar rates.
02:18 The investors' expectations for the coming meeting in May have been that we will have a drop of 18 points.
02:26 The expectations indicate that we will have a drop in interest rates with a probability of about 60%.
02:35 Therefore, the data confirm what the market sees, that the federal will start to decrease interest rates in the near future,
02:41 which is what the federal and many investment banks expect.