Petrol Diesel Prices Likely to Drop - Economist Farrukh Saleem Breaks Big News
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00:00 So when Dr. Jha said that when you will not have exportable surplus, export will not increase,
00:07 how will the country stand on its feet till then?
00:11 He said that we have everything. These are completely wrong things.
00:17 When 22% is said to be of rate, he says that is also wrong.
00:22 When inflation is 30% over, that is also wrong.
00:26 So what is this that we should believe you?
00:30 When you will not have more rice, cotton, cloth, and other things,
00:35 export will not increase, then you will not be able to come down from this burden.
00:43 Doctor will answer, but what I understood, what Doctor explained,
00:48 he has mentioned 3-4 countries that they have so much money that they want to invest in Pakistan.
00:53 Pakistan's problem is that people are scared to come here.
00:59 They are scared because one government goes,
01:02 wants to forward its political agenda through economic policies,
01:08 then another government comes with its own agenda.
01:11 So basically we have to correct our decision making processes.
01:17 Doctor, but you know that Mr. Chaudhary Ghulam Sain, he has a heartache for Pakistan,
01:23 he often expresses his emotions emotionally.
01:28 Pakistan's problem is that we do not have exports.
01:31 I have a lot of respect for Mr. Chaudhary's heartache and his emotions,
01:38 but I would like to decide on the basis of emotions,
01:45 if the number is based on numbers, it will be better.
01:49 The period that we are discussing now, the one we are preparing,
01:54 the crop of cotton has increased by 126%.
02:00 Compared to last year, this year the crop of cotton has increased by 126%.
02:05 The export of cement during this period has increased by 130%
02:12 compared to the last year.
02:15 So we are discussing that the statistics of the last three months,
02:19 which IMF is reviewing,
02:22 there are many positive signs.
02:28 Will these positive signs continue?
02:32 I think it is a big help that if we make political,
02:37 if we make political decisions,
02:42 then there is hope and expectation of them to continue.
02:46 If we have to make political decisions,
02:52 which we have been doing,
02:54 then you think that the hope of these signs that they will be positive is less.
03:01 You are absolutely right.
03:02 Dr. Sahib, IMF has also mentioned the intensification of geopolitical tensions in Ilamia.
03:08 Obviously, it has not taken the name,
03:10 but whatever is happening in the Middle East,
03:12 whatever is happening in Ukraine,
03:14 obviously, the pressure is coming on commodity prices.
03:16 How long are you seeing this long-lasting?
03:19 If these matters continue like this,
03:21 we are already dead,
03:23 what will we do?
03:24 If we die, the pressure will increase on us even more.
03:26 Mr. Khawar, the realities of commodity prices in international markets are very different.
03:35 You mentioned two wars, the war of Gaza and the war of Ukraine.
03:39 Usually, when big wars come,
03:43 the price of oil starts talking to the sky.
03:46 This is a strange phenomenon for the last few months.
03:50 I think it is out of my understanding that wars are taking place,
03:55 but the price of oil is falling.
03:57 You may remember that a few months ago,
04:01 it went up to $95.
04:03 Now, it is coming down to $80.
04:05 We have seen the impact of this in Pakistan as well.
04:08 So, the international market is behaving very differently in terms of oil prices.
04:14 The price of oil is falling even during the wars.
04:18 The demand for oil is falling in the world.
04:22 The supply of oil is about 100 billion barrels per day.
04:26 Maybe that is why the prices are falling.
04:28 This is good news for a country like Pakistan.
04:32 I would like to ask a question.
04:36 Dr. Sir, tell us,
04:38 the IMF program, the second installment,
04:42 which has just been approved for $710 million,
04:45 will all this money be transferred to Pakistan at once?
04:49 Or will it be available in installments?
04:51 And if all the installments are to be made in the second installment,
04:55 when will Pakistan get it?
04:58 Because today, after the IMF,
05:00 the dollar has become more expensive than the rupee.
05:05 The dollar has lost almost one rupee in today's day and age.
05:09 The interesting thing is that this was a stand-by agreement.
05:14 There are three agreements.
05:16 One case was given to the first PDM government.
05:20 One case will be given to the supervisory government.
05:24 And one case will be given to the next elected government.
05:27 So, what we always talk about in politics is the level playing field.
05:31 So, maybe the IMF has also made a level playing field
05:34 that every government is getting a case.
05:36 Look, there has just been a staff-level agreement.
05:39 After this, this agreement goes to the executive board.
05:43 And I think that this is in the last week of December
05:46 or in the first week of January, whenever the executive board meeting will take place,
05:51 only the executive board will be able to order the actual distribution of installments
05:57 of about 700 or 710 million dollars.
06:03 Absolutely right.
06:04 Doctor, you have been writing a lot on this.
06:07 I read it to you routinely.
06:09 In this announcement of the IMF, it has been explained
06:12 that this circular debt has become 4% of the GDP of combined gas and electricity.
06:18 Sir, what is the solution to this?
06:20 You have written a lot.
06:21 What will have to be done?
06:23 We will have to touch the lamp of Aladdin.
06:26 These are the discos, these are the Pakistanis, these are our bureaucrats.
06:30 The same politicians, their families, their board of directors, they sit there.
06:34 What is the remedy for you?
06:37 That it should be run, adopted.
06:39 This is our circular debt.
06:42 Yesterday we were talking about it.
06:44 I don't know how many trillions have gone.
06:46 We have to find a solution to that too.
06:48 This is the real issue.
06:51 Whether it is the issue of electricity theft, the issue of circular debt or the issue of gas theft.
06:57 Gas has also made a mistake.
06:59 It has reached 2.6, 2.7 trillion rupees.
07:04 See, the solution exists.
07:06 Political ability is not there.
07:11 Political intentions are required, political capability is required.
07:14 If you combine the two, the solution comes out.
07:17 See, the solution to electricity is that the government does not have a job.
07:22 All the electricity that is being generated in the country, the government buys 100%.
07:27 And then it sells 100%.
07:30 The government buys 100 billion units.
07:33 Out of that, 30-35 billion are stolen, wasted.
07:37 The government sells 60-65 billion units.
07:41 And the remaining 30-35 billion goes into circular debt.
07:45 The logic is this.
07:47 The government's own numbers and figures tell me that 520 billion rupees of electricity theft was last year.
07:54 The government's job is to govern, to rule.
07:58 Not to buy electricity.
08:00 It will have to be invested by the distribution companies.
08:05 Either they will have to hand it over to the provinces or eventually they will have to give it to the private sector.