Analysis: KMT-TPP Joint Ticket Polling
Taiwan's main opposition parties are set to decide who will be on the top half of their joint presidential ticket via a panel of three polling experts. But the agreement has raised numerous questions about the process – and whether either side might back out. Political analyst Ross Feingold explains how the winner will be decided and what it means.
Transcript
00:00 Can you explain to us what this polling policy between the Kuomintang or Chinese Nationalist
00:06 Party and the Taiwan People's Party actually involves?
00:08 What's the process for them to select their candidate?
00:11 Basically, the Kuomintang or Nationalist Party candidate will get to propose a polling expert.
00:17 The Taiwan People's Party candidate will get to propose a polling expert.
00:21 And Ma Ying-jeou is the supposedly neutral arbitrator here or mediator.
00:25 He'll get to propose a polling expert.
00:27 And the polling experts are going to review various polls from the previous 10 days about
00:34 whether the public prefers Kuo Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party or Hou You-wei of the
00:40 Chinese Nationalist Party.
00:42 And who's ever ahead in a poll gets a point.
00:45 And if it's within the margin of error, the leech get a point.
00:49 And then I guess the attention is that whoever has more points based on the polls that they
00:55 have looked at will be declared the presidential candidate.
00:59 And the other gentlemen will have to be the vice presidential candidate.
01:03 Taiwan's former president, Ma Ying-jeou, was heavily involved in brokering this deal.
01:07 He was also a KMT president, a long time, lifetime member of the KMT.
01:11 What exactly does he have to gain from getting involved?
01:14 And why was he seen as a neutral arbiter in this?
01:17 Probably he was chosen as the neutral mediator because there was a lack of other people.
01:22 Taiwan society just lacks that kind of individual.
01:27 There are very few people one could point to and say, this person is the ideal neutral
01:31 party to arbitrate between two political parties.
01:34 And the moment someone does so, then they become a political figure themselves.
01:39 So finding somebody who was not tainted by politics to then mediate this process, then
01:45 they would be identified as somebody who wants to help the Nationalist Party and the Taiwan
01:50 People's Party to beat the Democratic Progressive Party.
01:54 So it is inherently a political mediation process.
01:58 And that actually relates to your second question.
02:01 Why would Ma Ying-jeou want to do this?
02:03 What's the incentive?
02:05 And that's pretty simple.
02:06 He wants the DPP to lose.
02:08 Results are due to be announced on Saturday.
02:11 What do you think the chances are that there'll be some kind of a dispute?
02:14 And do you think both parties are likely to stick to the agreement?
02:17 So the two sides are hoping that they won't have disputes.
02:22 I think we could only assume that.
02:25 And you're correct in asking this question, because it does leave some wiggle room for
02:29 one of the gentlemen to say, no, that's not what I intended.
02:33 So the whole agreement is not applicable anymore.
02:37 And I'm walking away.
02:38 So there still is that possibility.
02:40 But I guess we'll only know the level of respect for the polling experts and for Ma Ying-jeou's
02:47 mediating role on Saturday when they have their meeting to go over the data.
02:52 Who do you think is likely to come out on top at the end of the day in this polling?
02:56 It's hard to say because there have been so many polls and Ho You-yi of the Nationalist
03:00 Party, Kuomintang, and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People's Party.
03:05 Some polls have them neck and neck.
03:09 Some polls have Ko ahead.
03:11 There's been polls that show Ho ahead.
03:13 But just looking at the totality of polls over the past, say, six months, typically
03:20 Ko Wen-je does poll higher than Ho You-yi.
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