ITG 122 - Week 12 Preview with Phil Steele
ITG 122 - Week 12 Preview with Phil Steele
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00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - In the gun episode 122, it is Phil Steel Friday
00:08 and we only got a few more of these left.
00:10 It's hard to believe we're winding down
00:12 to the end of the 2023 college football season.
00:15 It's been a lot of fun talking to Phil
00:17 each and every single Friday, Big 12, Top 25,
00:21 and of course those West Virginia Mountaineers.
00:22 We're gonna get Phil's thoughts on this week's matchup
00:25 with the Bearcats here in just a bit.
00:27 And of course this episode of ITG is brought to you
00:30 by Bet Online, where the game starts
00:33 and what a way to start with some bets.
00:36 And that's a bet recap of what we did last week
00:39 with West Virginia and Oklahoma.
00:41 Hopefully we did a little bit better
00:43 than the team actually did out in Norman,
00:45 but the way I've been trying to recently, probably not.
00:48 So Jed, take us back a week and see how we did in our picks.
00:52 - Yeah, speaking of Oklahoma and speaking of Phil,
00:56 unfortunately Phil was right.
00:57 He told us last week that he liked Oklahoma
01:00 and he liked that big point spread.
01:01 But okay, let's go to our handicapping last week.
01:06 We started with third downs and we asked in the matchup
01:09 between the Mountaineers and the Sooners,
01:11 who will convert a higher percentage on third down,
01:14 WVU or Oklahoma?
01:17 We both picked Oklahoma.
01:19 We were both correct, resoundingly so, unfortunately.
01:24 Oklahoma was eight of 14, 57% on third down.
01:27 West Virginia was just four of 16, 25%.
01:31 So that upward trend and upward trajectory
01:34 that West Virginia had been on on third down
01:36 for the better part of a month hit a wall in Norman.
01:40 And then we transitioned to a question from third downs
01:43 to a question about fourth downs.
01:45 WVU was six for seven in the previous two matchups
01:50 against Oklahoma on fourth down.
01:53 So including four of five last year in Morgantown.
01:56 So the question was over under two and a half
02:00 fourth down attempts for West Virginia
02:03 Saturday night on the Prairie.
02:05 We both took over there.
02:09 We were correct, West Virginia attempted four.
02:12 So they went over the two and a half.
02:13 They were two for four on fourth down.
02:16 And then finally, number three,
02:17 we had halftime scores in the previous two matchups
02:22 of 12 to six, Oklahoma, 10 to seven, WVU in the last two.
02:27 So we asked what will be happening
02:31 at halftime Saturday night?
02:34 And in that one, we said, will WVU be leading?
02:37 Will Oklahoma be leading?
02:38 Will WVU be tied?
02:40 And so I separated from the pack and I said, tied.
02:44 I took the long shot.
02:45 Obviously it was not tied.
02:47 You said Oklahoma will be winning,
02:48 but barely thought West Virginia was gonna win.
02:50 Well, you were right.
02:52 Not barely, but it was 31 to 14.
02:55 So you were three for three.
02:58 I was two for three.
02:59 - That might be.
03:00 - That's your first time on three at them.
03:02 - Yeah.
03:02 - I think it is.
03:03 Yeah, I think it is.
03:04 We'll see what we can do to trip you up this week
03:07 with the Cincinnati handicapping, right?
03:09 But yeah, that's how it shook out.
03:11 Now I threw a fisherman's friend in my mouth
03:14 to get that nasty Oklahoma taste out of my mouth.
03:17 And let's finish up and let's talk to Phil.
03:22 I'm eager to move forward and see what he has
03:24 for this weekend's games.
03:26 But like I said, unfortunately,
03:28 we didn't like what he had to say.
03:31 - Right.
03:32 - He was all over Oklahoma,
03:33 given that big point spread against the Mountaineers.
03:35 He thought that Oklahoma was due for a big rebound,
03:38 coming home for the first time in a number of weeks,
03:40 playing under the lights.
03:42 He thought they were gonna give us their best shot.
03:44 And boy was Phil right.
03:45 They gave us their best shot.
03:46 - They did.
03:47 They certainly did.
03:48 They were ready to go.
03:49 And playing ticked off, rightfully so,
03:51 after losing two straight games.
03:53 And the one thing I love about Phil
03:54 is he is 100% honest with his opinion.
03:58 He's not just coming onto this WVU show
03:59 just to give love to West Virginia.
04:01 If he feels like they don't have a chance
04:02 or they're gonna lose, he's gonna let us know.
04:04 But he did kind of tease us a little bit
04:06 about these last two games.
04:07 So we'll see what Phil has to say here after the break
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04:46 (upbeat music)
04:47 - For more West Virginia Mountaineer football content,
04:50 be sure to follow us on Twitter @InTheGunPodcast.
04:53 - All right, everybody, we are back here with Phil.
05:00 Steve was going to break down some big 12 matchups,
05:02 top 25, and we'll wrap things up
05:04 with West Virginia at Cincinnati.
05:06 Phil, we appreciate you joining us once again this week
05:09 here on In The Gun.
05:10 And if you want to go ahead and plug some of your stuff
05:13 for this week, the floor is yours, my friend.
05:16 - Hey, I appreciate that.
05:18 You know, right now up and available,
05:19 if you go to philsteel.com right there at the front
05:22 on the daily blogs,
05:22 you can take the Phil Steel Plus Tour with selections.
05:26 The selections actually had a losing week last week,
05:28 dropping them to 17 and 11 the last six weeks,
05:30 but the quick hitters, 15 and seven the last five weeks.
05:33 So still red hot,
05:35 and I might even have a guaranteed winning week
05:37 there this week.
05:37 So check it out, go to philsteel.com,
05:40 take the Phil Steel Plus Tour.
05:41 You get yourself about nine free selections
05:43 plus some FCS selections, and it's all absolutely free.
05:48 - Awesome, good stuff there, Phil.
05:49 And look, we all have bad weeks.
05:52 It's going to happen throughout the course of the season
05:54 as West Virginia fans found out last week.
05:56 So we'll go ahead and get started here with the top 25,
06:00 going to the Pac-12.
06:01 And this is a sneaky good team
06:03 that no one's been talking about all year long,
06:05 and that's Arizona.
06:07 Now in the top 25, ranked number 17,
06:09 they're going to be hosting Utah on this one, 230.
06:12 And Arizona, I got to admit,
06:15 I didn't see this coming from them.
06:16 This was a quick turnaround out there for Jet Fish.
06:21 Phil, how do you see this one playing out
06:23 between the Utes and the Wildcats?
06:26 - Yeah, and I think the big difference
06:27 for Arizona this year,
06:28 it's not the quarterback or the passing game.
06:30 They had that last year.
06:31 It's the run defense.
06:32 And when I went over to the team with Coach Fish,
06:34 and he had mentioned that the defensive line
06:37 was his major concern.
06:38 His first thing I brought up to him last year,
06:40 they gave up 5.6 yards per carry.
06:42 And he went out and just hit the transfer portal heavy,
06:45 brought in a bunch of transfers,
06:47 a lot of P5 transfers down the D line.
06:49 And the difference has been great.
06:51 They're only allowing 99 yards per game rush,
06:53 3.2 yards per carry.
06:55 So that's been the big difference in Arizona,
06:57 and they're playing great football.
06:58 And you look at their losses this year.
07:00 They've only had three losses,
07:01 Mississippi State by seven,
07:02 Washington by seven,
07:04 and USC by two.
07:05 So they're a highly competitive team.
07:06 But this is Utah.
07:08 They're off a loss.
07:09 Kyle Whittingham is five and O
07:12 against Spread F, his last five losses.
07:14 I think Utah is a premier team.
07:18 And the game's basically pick 'em in this one.
07:19 So I think Utah can go on the road.
07:22 Bryson Barnes is now taking control of the team.
07:24 They played a good game against Washington.
07:26 In fact, I thought Barnes outplayed Penix
07:28 in the first half last week.
07:30 I look for Utah to bounce back and get a win.
07:32 But it should be a great game.
07:36 - Under the SEC, Phil, you got Georgia,
07:38 number one in the country on the road at Tennessee.
07:42 Tennessee reeling after that 36 to seven loss at Missouri.
07:46 Meanwhile, Tennessee coming off that massive blowout win
07:50 over Ole Miss, the only thing standing between
07:53 Georgia and an unbeaten opportunity at Alabama
07:56 in the SEC Championship game is this game in Georgia Tech.
07:59 Any chance the Vols might be able to creep up
08:01 and do something here?
08:03 - Well, Tennessee has proven to be tough,
08:05 especially at home.
08:06 You know, at home this year, they beat Texas A&M,
08:09 which I thought was a good win.
08:11 And they've been tough at home under Hypo last year.
08:14 They beat Alabama at home in a big game.
08:17 And this year they went on the road
08:18 and played Alabama tough.
08:20 I actually thought Tennessee was gonna play a good game
08:22 against Missouri last week, and they were just dreadful.
08:25 But the potential is there,
08:27 and they're extremely tough at home.
08:28 However, Georgia got back Mims
08:30 on the offensive line last week
08:32 and put up over 300 yards rushing,
08:34 300 yards passing in that game.
08:36 They also got Brock Bowers back.
08:38 They still have Carson Beck.
08:39 They still have McConkie.
08:41 And the running game has been picking up
08:43 with the health of the running backs.
08:45 I'm gonna take Georgia to treat this as an A game
08:48 coming out, and I'm gonna like Georgia on the road
08:51 to get the win, and probably by more comfortably
08:53 than the 10-point spread.
08:55 - Back out to the Pac-12, Phil, here is Washington
08:58 as a massive road game up there in Corvallis
09:02 against Oregon State, who's actually favored in this game.
09:05 It's crazy to think that, but, I mean,
09:07 Oregon State has been playing well all season.
09:09 This is their chance to kind of make themselves known
09:12 to the rest of the country.
09:13 DJ Uyungle found himself a home out there
09:16 with Jonathan Smith, who's, in my opinion,
09:19 one of the most underrated coaches in the country.
09:22 Does the Bs get the upset this week
09:25 and spoil Washington's playoff hopes?
09:28 - Yeah, and, you know, my conversation
09:31 with Jonathan Smith this year, going over the team
09:33 with him, was going back to our first year.
09:35 The first year with Oregon State,
09:37 you looked at that roster, and they could barely
09:39 go too deep on the roster.
09:41 In fact, a lot of the players on the second string
09:44 were walk-ons in his first year,
09:46 and they went through some growing pains,
09:47 but now he's got this thing where they're three deep
09:50 at some positions, and he's done a tremendous job
09:53 building the program.
09:54 The thing I love about Oregon State
09:56 is it breaks the unbeatable at home in Rezor Stadium.
09:59 And the last two years, Rezor's been under construction,
10:01 so they've had, you know, a quarter of the stadium
10:04 couldn't be occupied, a quarter of the stadium
10:06 could be occupied here.
10:07 Now it's back to full capacity.
10:09 They got the chainsaw going on third down.
10:11 It's a great situation.
10:12 They are 17 and one, straight up and against the spread
10:16 at home, and, you know, Washington actually opened up
10:19 a two-point favorite in the game,
10:20 but the betting in Vegas right now
10:24 has been all on Oregon State, driving Oregon State
10:26 to be the favorite.
10:27 And if you look at Washington the last five weeks,
10:30 they've sort of been unimpressive,
10:31 only beating Arizona by seven.
10:33 They got outgained by Oregon by over 100 yards,
10:35 out first down 32 to 24, got past Arizona State,
10:39 got past Stanford.
10:41 The fumble before the half was huge in the USC game.
10:44 And then last week, trailed at the half against Utah
10:46 and came back and got it.
10:48 The defense goes to Oregon State in this one.
10:50 The run game I like with Oregon State
10:52 with Martinez and Fenwick, a dangerous combination.
10:55 Quarterback definitely goes to Washington.
10:57 I'd give the receiving core to Washington,
10:59 but I can't go against that home field edge.
11:01 I am gonna call for Oregon State
11:02 to pull the upset this week.
11:04 - Bill, let's jump into the Big 12.
11:07 And you got Oklahoma after snapping their losing streak
11:10 against West Virginia.
11:11 After dropping two straight,
11:12 they obviously had their way with the Mountaineers.
11:15 They're on the road in Provo.
11:17 Strange kick time.
11:19 BYU has now, after a fast start, dropped three straight.
11:22 They're really struggling on the offensive side
11:24 of the football.
11:25 Oklahoma, a very heavy favorite against the BYU team.
11:29 Still trying to get that sixth elusive win for a bowl game.
11:33 Any way the Cougars can make this interesting?
11:35 - You know, I don't think so.
11:37 When I look at BYU,
11:39 we remember when they were five and two,
11:40 and I believe I called them a fake team at that time
11:43 because they were being outgained
11:44 by about a hundred yards per game.
11:46 It hasn't gotten any better.
11:48 Now, last week, they actually ran the ball
11:49 for the first time, but they were down big
11:51 and a couple of big runs there.
11:53 But they still struggle at the run game.
11:55 Jake Retzlaff's taken over at the QB spot.
11:58 Slovis possibly could return,
11:59 but I think they may stick with Retzlaff.
12:01 But the offense has really been woeful
12:04 over the last four weeks.
12:05 Just 13 points per game, 291 yards per game.
12:08 The defense has fallen off,
12:10 and they're a team that's being outgained
12:11 by 114 yards per game.
12:13 Oklahoma was angry coming off two losses.
12:16 It got done at home last week,
12:18 and I think they continue that momentum.
12:20 I like the run game with Walker and Sawchuck.
12:22 I like the Dylan Gabriel.
12:24 The defense is starting to play
12:25 a little bit better as well.
12:27 I like Oklahoma to win this one big on the road.
12:29 And it's a 10 o'clock a.m. start at BYU.
12:33 So I can't imagine the crowd's gonna be all that loud.
12:36 - Yeah, they're gonna be serving brunch there for that one.
12:38 But Baylor going to TCU,
12:42 and Phil, we've talked about these Bears all season long.
12:44 It's crazy to think the kind of season that they've had,
12:49 especially just a couple years removed
12:50 after winning the Big 12.
12:52 Does it look like they've waved the white flag,
12:56 or was last week just a factor of K-State being that good?
13:00 And for TCU, you got a chance
13:03 to still get the bowl eligibility,
13:04 but they've got a pretty tough one
13:05 on deck against Oklahoma.
13:06 But you gotta win this one first.
13:08 So who do you see getting this one
13:09 between the Bears and the Horned Frogs?
13:11 - Yeah, and with Baylor, each week,
13:15 I just think Dave Aranda, he's gonna get this thing,
13:18 and they're gonna be highly competitive.
13:20 And they've been disappointing.
13:21 I liked them against Texas Tech.
13:23 They didn't do well.
13:24 The Cincinnati game, they did go on the road
13:27 and get the win, but they lose to Iowa State.
13:30 The loss to Houston, I think, was really tough.
13:33 It's a game where they had the slight yardage edge
13:35 in the game, but lost.
13:36 And then last week, they got beat.
13:38 I think you have to go with TCU at home to get the win here.
13:41 Hoover's been playing well.
13:44 Chandler Morris could return,
13:45 but I like the way Hoover's playing.
13:47 And when I talked to Coach Dykes,
13:49 he was happy with both quarterbacks.
13:51 The defense has been giving up some yards lately,
13:54 but I think TCU's the better team at home.
13:57 And as you said, you wonder a little bit
13:58 about the Baylor psyche.
14:00 They've got nothing to play for.
14:01 They've got their seventh losses clenched.
14:04 You wonder what's gonna happen.
14:06 The players starting to think transfer portal,
14:08 that type of thing.
14:09 So I'm gonna lean with TCU in this one at home.
14:12 - Before we jump into Oklahoma State, Houston,
14:16 I wanna remind people that last week, Phil,
14:19 you reminded me when you mentioned BYU.
14:21 Yeah, you did kind of call them a paper line
14:23 when they were five and two.
14:24 You saw this coming.
14:25 But the Miami-Florida State game
14:27 in the top 25 action last week,
14:29 you said, "Hey, pay attention to this game
14:31 because it's a rivalry.
14:32 There's some strange things going on."
14:34 So what a lot of people expect
14:36 that a unilateral beat down,
14:37 Florida State handling Miami not so fast.
14:39 You were exactly right with that one as well.
14:41 Tight game there in Tallahassee.
14:43 But you've got Oklahoma State
14:45 after getting absolutely ambushed
14:47 by Central Florida and Orlando, 45 to three,
14:50 heading to Houston,
14:51 Houston coming off a loss to Cincinnati.
14:54 What do you see shaking out?
14:55 This is a matchup between guys
14:57 who used to be on staff together at Oklahoma State,
15:00 Dane and Gundy, interesting matchup here.
15:02 - Yeah, it is.
15:04 And this one is actually,
15:06 I talked about the Phil Steele Plus Tour.
15:08 This one's gonna be out there as my aberrational play.
15:11 And what I mean by that is,
15:13 last week was just a complete aberration.
15:15 Oklahoma State had been playing great football.
15:17 If you look at my average game grades
15:19 on the Phil Steele Plus,
15:21 they had been playing at about 111, 112 level.
15:25 And then last week they played at a 75 level.
15:27 Take that, throw it in the trash.
15:29 I think they'll be back to how they were playing.
15:31 They've got Alan Bowman.
15:33 You know, Ollie Gordon,
15:34 looked like he was banged up against Oklahoma.
15:36 I talked to some folks at Oklahoma State.
15:37 They said, "No, he's not really banged up."
15:39 But last week he struggled.
15:40 UCF just stacked the line completely to stop him.
15:44 He had 12 carries for 25 yards.
15:45 I expect him to have a breakout game here
15:48 against a Houston defense
15:49 that just gave Cincinnati 204 yards rushing.
15:52 So I look for the offense to be much better this week.
15:55 And with Houston,
15:56 look how their offense has been doing the last four weeks.
15:58 Only 302 yards per game.
16:00 They've been struggling to run the ball.
16:01 Donovan Smith, last week only threw for 102 yards.
16:06 Three weeks ago against Kansas State, only threw for 95.
16:10 I think Oklahoma State's a better team.
16:12 I'm throwing out last week as a complete letdown spot,
16:15 aberration, and snowball game.
16:17 I think this week they showed much better.
16:19 I like Oklahoma State to win this one
16:22 by more than the touch out.
16:24 UCF has played some really good football over here
16:26 the last three or four games, really.
16:28 They played Oklahoma tough.
16:30 They played with West Virginia for a while,
16:31 and then they've obviously won their last two
16:33 against Cincinnati
16:34 and just obviously last week against Oklahoma State.
16:38 Do they get to three in a row here
16:40 and get to bowl eligibility?
16:41 Because they've got Texas Tech here on the road,
16:44 both teams fighting for that bowl spot.
16:46 Who do you think gets it this weekend?
16:48 - Yeah, and Texas Tech, I think,
16:50 benefited a little bit from Jason Bean
16:52 getting knocked out of the game in the first quarter.
16:55 Kansas having to go with a walk-on quarterback
16:57 the rest of the game.
16:58 And as it was, Kansas came back and tied it,
17:00 but then Texas Tech got the game-winning field goal.
17:02 Now they are at home,
17:03 where they're a much more dangerous team.
17:05 They beat TCU, they beat Houston.
17:07 And if you look at their record over the last couple years,
17:10 or their last two years, I should say,
17:12 under Joey Maguire, they play much better at home.
17:15 So that's a good situation for Tech.
17:17 They're catching UCF up a big win,
17:19 but I actually think UCF might be the better team.
17:21 John Rhys Plumlee's back.
17:23 He missed a good portion of their losses,
17:25 but Plumlee looks dangerous again,
17:28 both running and throwing.
17:30 I think it's gonna be a high-scoring game.
17:32 You've got two pretty good offenses.
17:34 And even though Texas Tech got Barron Morton back last week,
17:38 to me, this is gonna be a toss-up game, guys.
17:40 I think Tech at home's tough to go against,
17:42 but I'm gonna call this one a toss-up.
17:44 - Speaking of Kansas and that injury to Jason Bean,
17:48 let's jump to Lawrence,
17:50 and let's discuss the Sunflower Showdown
17:52 between two ranked teams,
17:54 with Kansas State coming to town to face the Jayhawks.
17:57 As I understand it, Phil,
17:58 Jason Bean got a lot of reps in practice on Wednesday.
18:02 We'll see, it's probably gonna be a game-time decision
18:04 with him, but they're coming off that tough loss
18:07 to Texas Tech.
18:08 Some people that might be scoreboard watching
18:10 were thinking they were looking ahead,
18:11 not understanding that Jason Bean was out of the game.
18:14 What do you see playing out this fascinating matchup
18:18 in the Sunflower Showdown
18:19 between the Jayhawks and the Wildcats?
18:21 - Yeah, and this is one,
18:24 ever since Bill Snyder took over way back when,
18:27 Kansas State has pretty much had the upper hand
18:29 in this rivalry, winning almost every single game
18:32 every single year.
18:33 It's been remarkable how K-State has dominated.
18:37 And I'm just overly impressed
18:39 with how Kansas State's playing.
18:40 I mean, you look at their defense,
18:43 they're playing solid,
18:44 they're holding opponents at 57 yards per game
18:46 below their season average.
18:47 They've got the run game going with Giddens and Ward,
18:50 and I love Will Howard,
18:51 and then the change of pace with Avery Johnson at QB.
18:54 So they're a dangerous offense as well.
18:56 Now, they've been dominating at home,
18:58 not as dominating at the road,
19:00 but I like the way they played Texas on the road.
19:02 Last year, this game was a battle for a little bit,
19:05 and then at the end, as always,
19:07 Kansas State came out ahead 47 to 27.
19:11 And I think this one's gonna be
19:12 a Kansas State win once again.
19:15 And the number's low down there,
19:17 about eight, seven and a half for the game.
19:19 So I like Kansas State to win, but more than that,
19:21 I do expect Bean to play,
19:23 but it's gonna be a pretty tough Kansas State defense.
19:26 I like the Wildcats in this one.
19:28 - Bill, Texas survived a big scare last week from TCU.
19:32 Now they've got to survive the house of horrors
19:34 as they go to Aims and Jack Trice,
19:37 which has always been a tough place to play.
19:39 And it seems like this happens every year,
19:42 where some teams riding in
19:44 with college football playoff hopes or Big 12 title hopes,
19:46 and they go to Aims in late November and they fall apart.
19:50 Do you see that happening this week with Texas?
19:52 - Yeah, and, you know, look at Texas the last two weeks.
19:56 They got out to that big lead against Kansas State.
19:59 At the end of the game, they're playing in overtime,
20:01 or, you know, just to pull the game out.
20:03 And then the TCU game last week, 26-6 at the half.
20:07 And all of a sudden at the end of the game,
20:09 they need a fourth down conversion
20:11 to run out the clock and get past TCU.
20:14 The big thing to me with Texas was losing Jonathan Brooks.
20:17 I've been watching Jonathan Brooks this year,
20:19 but super impressed.
20:20 He's a guy with breakaway speed.
20:21 He's averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
20:24 Now, CJ Baxter is gonna take his place,
20:27 but Baxter's only averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
20:30 So I think that's a big loss for Texas.
20:33 Quinn Yers came back last week,
20:35 looked good, threw for over 300 yards in the game.
20:38 But this, as you mentioned, 100%, I agree with you.
20:41 Iowa State's a tough place to play.
20:43 I like the way Rocco Beck's playing.
20:44 They've got the defense holding opponents
20:47 to 56 yards per game below their season average.
20:49 A lot of folks thought that BYU
20:51 would be a tough situation for them last week.
20:53 They rolled through that easily.
20:55 I really like this Iowa State team.
20:57 I think they keep it closer than expected
20:59 and could pull the upset.
21:00 - All right, Phil, let's head to Morgantown.
21:05 Legendary coach Don Nealon being memorialized at the game.
21:09 You've got the Bearcats in town.
21:11 His first win at Mountaineer Field in 1980
21:13 was against Cincinnati.
21:14 His first coaching job was for Cincinnati.
21:17 So a lot of synergy in this football game.
21:19 But a Bearcats team that two of their three wins
21:22 in the season have come on the road.
21:25 West Virginia, to some extent, looking in the mirror.
21:27 Cincinnati likes to try and play keep away.
21:29 Cincinnati likes to play with that run game
21:32 and try and hold the clock.
21:34 What do you see shaking out with the three and seven Bearcats
21:37 against the six and four Mountaineers in Morgantown?
21:40 - Yeah, I think you hit it correctly on the head
21:43 that Cincinnati's better than their record.
21:45 I mean, if you look at them in Big 12 play,
21:48 they're plus 21 yards per game,
21:50 which is highly unusual for a team
21:52 that's only won one Big 12 game.
21:54 But watching them this year, you look at Emory Jones,
21:58 he's got a 15 touchdowns, 10 interceptions on the year.
22:02 But five of those touchdowns came against
22:03 Eastern Kentucky in the opener.
22:04 So against FBS foes, he actually has a 10-10 ratio,
22:08 10 touchdowns, 10 interceptions.
22:10 And it seems like they'll play really good
22:12 in the first half, and then the second half,
22:14 they sort of go away.
22:15 I like this West Virginia team.
22:17 I think they have one of the best offensive lines
22:19 in the country.
22:20 It's too bad that they just missed out
22:23 on the Joe Moore Award for the top offensive line
22:25 in the country, and they did just miss out.
22:28 But, you know, they've got the run game, as you mentioned.
22:31 The defense hasn't been playing great the last four weeks,
22:34 but I think when you look at the defense overall,
22:37 there's talent there.
22:38 And I really like the home field edge.
22:39 I think West Virginia is the better team at home.
22:42 And much like I've done a lot of times,
22:44 you know, a team off a loss is a very dangerous team.
22:47 I think that fits West Virginia this week.
22:49 So as much as I liked Oklahoma last week off a loss,
22:52 this week I like West Virginia off a loss.
22:54 I'd like the Mountain Dewar's to win this one by double digits.
22:58 Phil, it's really no surprise
23:00 that some of these Big 12 newcomers
23:01 are struggling in their transition to the conference,
23:03 and we've obviously seen that firsthand here in Morgantown.
23:07 But where do you think this Cincinnati program can be?
23:10 I mean, because they've been very successful
23:12 over the last two decades or so.
23:13 Do you think that they can be a team
23:15 that competes year in and year out here
23:18 in a few years down the road?
23:21 I think they can get there.
23:22 I mean, the fact that, first of all,
23:24 they're located in Ohio,
23:25 which is one of the prime recruiting spots in the country.
23:29 And then, second of all, I am a Scott Satterfield fan.
23:33 I've been talking to him since his days at App State,
23:35 and he did a tremendous job at App State building that team.
23:39 And, you know, look at the defensive line
23:41 he built at Louisville last year.
23:43 So I think he's going to be able to get this thing rolling.
23:45 And Cincinnati, as mentioned,
23:47 they're plus 21 yards per game in league play this year,
23:50 probably just haven't got the consistency
23:52 they need out of the quarterback.
23:53 He'll get that turned around.
23:54 So, yeah, I'm really looking forward.
23:57 I think the Big 12 will be as confusing as ever next year,
23:59 just like it's been the last couple years.
24:02 It's crazy. You can't predict anything in this conference.
24:04 There's so much parity, and maybe it's a good thing.
24:07 So -- and it'll probably be more so once Texas and OU
24:10 depart for the SEC next year,
24:12 they'll open up the door for two new schools
24:14 that kind of make that next leap.
24:15 So, Phil, we appreciate your time,
24:18 and we'll circle back with you next week
24:21 for the final game of the regular season,
24:24 was West Virginia will take on Baylor.
24:26 It's hard to believe it's already here.
24:29 Yeah, it seems like the season just started.
24:31 Now it's almost over.
24:33 We're almost to the conference championship games.
24:35 But I'll tell you what, it's been a fun year, hasn't it?
24:37 Yeah, it definitely has, especially with West Virginia
24:40 back to their winning ways a little bit.
24:42 And they got an eight-win season,
24:43 still within reach, maybe even a nine
24:46 when you get to the bowl games.
24:47 We'll see how it all plays out.
24:49 But that's Phil Steele.
24:51 Again, you can get his stuff at Barnes & Noble
24:53 and Books A Million.
24:54 He's with us here each and every single Friday here in the gun.
24:58 And when we return, we will make our picks for West Virginia
25:02 and Cincinnati, our handicap picks.
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26:12 [MUSIC PLAYING]
26:14 For more West Virginia Mountaineer football content,
26:16 be sure to follow us on Twitter @InTheGunPodcast.
26:19 [MUSIC PLAYING]
26:24 All right, as always, fun talking with Phil,
26:27 getting his thoughts on everything college football,
26:30 and especially those Mountaineers.
26:33 Want to send a huge thank you to Phil
26:35 just for continuing to come on the show each
26:38 and every single week.
26:39 We truly appreciate it, and I know our fans do as well.
26:42 So Jed, let's go ahead and get into our picks
26:45 for this week's game against those Cincinnati Bearcats.
26:49 New face in the Big 12, but technically,
26:51 to West Virginia fans, a familiar face.
26:53 And they've owned this series 16-3-1.
26:58 It's going to take about a decade and a half,
27:00 maybe two decades if you do the math,
27:02 if Cincinnati really wants to catch up in this series
27:05 because they're playing, it seems like, on a three
27:07 out of every four-year basis.
27:09 But let's go and dive into some of these actual picks
27:14 for this game and see what we think.
27:17 Yeah, when you consider Cincinnati and the history,
27:22 Pick 6 previews did an interesting little piece
27:25 in their preview magazine this summer talking
27:27 about the 117 seasons Cincinnati has played football.
27:31 And they kind of broke it down from 1888 up to 2004
27:36 and what Cincinnati had done from being ranked
27:39 in the AP polls, from their bowls.
27:41 And then they looked at the seasons since 2005.
27:46 And they really amped things up from a production standpoint
27:50 for that program with that run they had with Mark D'Antonio,
27:53 Brian Kelly, of course, more recently Luke Fickle.
27:55 But in the 17 seasons, this is before we get into our picks.
27:59 I just thought this was interesting
28:00 from Pick 6 previews.
28:01 In the 17 seasons that we're talking about from '05 to '22,
28:06 they played in 14 ballgames, spent 92 weeks ranked,
28:08 completed three undefeated regular seasons,
28:11 and broke the barriers,
28:12 the first non-automatic qualifier program
28:15 into the 14 playoffs.
28:16 So the last 17 seasons have really changed
28:19 the entire dynamic of that Cincinnati football program
28:22 at large.
28:23 But let's get into this week's handicap picks
28:26 with Cincinnati.
28:27 Cincinnati running the football.
28:29 We've talked about it in our preview,
28:31 what makes them so dangerous when they do run the football,
28:33 athletic quarterback, they've got a physical run game
28:37 with their tailback, their feature back.
28:39 So Emory Jones, it starts there.
28:43 He's gonna pitch in.
28:44 Will Brady Lichtenberg play?
28:46 I mean, he's played in three straight games,
28:47 the other quarterback.
28:48 They also like to run him, but either way,
28:50 Cincinnati, number two in the Big 12 in rushing offense
28:53 at 223 a game.
28:55 They've kind of consistently crept their way up the rankings
28:58 to now be parked at number two in the entire conference.
29:01 Now, here's what's interesting.
29:03 On the road, in road games only,
29:05 they're number one in the Big 12 at 235 yards a game.
29:10 So in their four road games,
29:11 they've run for 216, 242, 277, and 204.
29:15 So West Virginia versus the Big 12 at home,
29:20 we've given up 160, of course, 281 to Oklahoma State,
29:23 67 more recently to BYU.
29:26 The question quite simply,
29:27 will Cincinnati rush for at least 180 yards
29:32 against West Virginia?
29:35 So again, four games,
29:37 their lowest output on the road has been 204.
29:41 Even in the loss to Oklahoma State, they ran for 277.
29:44 Will they run for at least 180?
29:45 I'm gonna go ahead and say yes, Skyler.
29:48 Yeah, I'm -- I'm saying yes, they will.
29:50 I'm right there with you.
29:51 I think this is gonna be a game where it's low-scoring.
29:55 And to me, it kind of has that Texas Tech/TCU
29:57 type of a feel to it, game in the low 20s.
30:00 Both teams want to run the ball, play good defense,
30:03 play clock control.
30:04 So, yeah, I think they -- I think they get over that mark.
30:06 And I think, as you mentioned in the preview,
30:09 you know, if Emery Jones is dropping back 30 or 40 times,
30:12 and that's -- that's not a good situation for Cincinnati.
30:14 That's not what they want to do.
30:15 It's not where they want to be.
30:17 And if he is, then that means West Virginia
30:19 is probably up by a couple of scores.
30:21 So, yeah, I think they want to make sure
30:22 that they hang in this game as long as they possibly can.
30:27 All right, so we both agree, yes, they will.
30:30 Now let's go to number two,
30:31 and it kind of ties into the run game.
30:33 It's a time of possession question.
30:35 -Ooh. -From a time-of-possession
30:37 standpoint, the top two time-of-possessions
30:40 in the league, in the Big 12,
30:42 are West Virginia at number one and Cincinnati at number two.
30:45 Cincinnati actually is number two in all of Power Five
30:49 in time of possession on the road,
30:52 trailing only NC State in road games.
30:56 They average 34 minutes
30:58 and 18 seconds of possession on the road.
31:01 WVU is number two in the country in time of possession overall.
31:06 Quite simply, which team will win
31:08 the battle of time of possession?
31:12 I'm going to go West Virginia.
31:15 I think they find more success offensively this week.
31:20 They have more success on third down,
31:22 and because of that,
31:23 they're going to be able to win this battle.
31:25 And I think the defense, too.
31:26 This plays a big part in it, as well.
31:28 I think they're eager to get back out there
31:31 and kind of put that game to bed against Oklahoma.
31:34 So they're going to get off the field more.
31:35 And I would even go as far as saying
31:36 they may get a couple of turnovers in this one,
31:38 which will also play into that time of possession.
31:42 -I agreed again.
31:44 I'm going with West Virginia to win the time of possession.
31:47 Not only have we consistently done so,
31:49 even when we're losing the football game,
31:52 we won the time of possession battle.
31:54 But what's interesting to me is now we have
31:56 all of the tempo teams behind us.
31:59 -Yeah. -And those tempo teams
32:01 have helped elevate that time of possession stat.
32:03 We played three or four teams
32:05 that don't care if you win time of possession.
32:07 So that's going to help drive that number up
32:09 and maybe even inflate it a little bit.
32:11 But that being said, I think playing at home
32:13 gives West Virginia just enough of an edge
32:16 against a team that's going to try
32:18 and play the same style of football.
32:20 This is a team that does care if you win time of possession.
32:23 But I think West Virginia will find a way
32:25 to edge out the Bearcats
32:27 from a time of possession standpoint.
32:29 And finally, number three, this is where the plot thickens.
32:33 West Virginia's rush yards.
32:36 We dive deep on this one.
32:39 The last time these two teams met,
32:41 I was there at Paul Brown Stadium in 2011.
32:46 It was a battle of two teams
32:47 that would ultimately finish 10-3.
32:50 Bush Jones Bearcats went on to go 10-3.
32:53 WV won that game 24-21,
32:56 and it started a stretch run of three straight wins
32:59 at the end of the regular season
33:01 that helped us win the Big East
33:03 and secure that spot into the BCS
33:05 and get to the Orange Bowl where we dropped 70 on Clemson.
33:09 In that game in 2011 at Paul Brown Stadium,
33:13 both teams, strangely enough,
33:15 totaled exactly 404 yards of offense.
33:18 Wow. They got there very different ways.
33:21 Zach Collaro, Cincinnati's starting quarterback,
33:23 was hurt when he was sacked by Bruce in the first half.
33:26 Munchie Lago comes off the bench.
33:28 Munchie's making plays in the pass game.
33:30 Munchie's making plays with his legs.
33:33 So Cincinnati was helped by their backup quarterback.
33:38 I mean, he had a 65-yard touchdown run in that game.
33:41 West Virginia, meanwhile, was one-dimensional.
33:44 Geno threw all over him,
33:45 but we could not get a run game won
33:47 with Andrew Bowie, with Dustin Garrison.
33:50 West Virginia rushed for a total in that win.
33:53 Remember, we had to block the Ian Smith field goal
33:55 at the end to secure the win?
33:57 West Virginia rushed for 32 yards in that game
34:00 at Paul Brown Stadium.
34:02 So the question is, will West Virginia rush
34:08 for more than 32 yards against Cincinnati
34:11 on Saturday in the first quarter?
34:15 Oh!
34:16 I was going to say, this is a slime dunk
34:18 if it's for the game.
34:20 In the first quarter.
34:22 I'm going to go no.
34:24 And I think the only reason -- or the two reasons are
34:27 because Cincinnati's defensive front is really good.
34:30 Dante Corleone is stout,
34:33 but he's not the only one up there.
34:34 And number two, I think they're going to get
34:37 Garrett Green involved in this game with his legs because --
34:41 well, I guess that would be as a team,
34:42 but I think that's going to mature as the game goes on.
34:46 But I just think Cincinnati's front,
34:50 with the combination of we don't know
34:51 really what C.J. Donaldson is going to give you,
34:54 I'm going to go under.
34:55 I think they find success on the ground
34:57 much more than they did that year,
34:58 but not in the first quarter.
35:02 I'm going to go yes.
35:03 And honestly, I think it comes down to this.
35:06 Cincinnati opened the game at Houston
35:10 with a nice scripted drive.
35:11 They looked efficient.
35:13 They moved the ball methodically down the field,
35:16 ate some clock, scored to go up 7-0.
35:19 West Virginia has opened games, including at Oklahoma last week,
35:24 looking pretty slick as well,
35:25 pretty well-oiled early in the game as well.
35:27 So, quite frankly, Skyler,
35:29 this could come down to who gets the ball first
35:33 because it's a first-quarter question.
35:34 That's what's interesting about it.
35:35 So it's almost like however that coin toss goes,
35:38 so goes this 32-yard question.
35:41 So I'm going to say Cincinnati wins the toss.
35:45 Cincinnati defers.
35:46 West Virginia gets the ball.
35:48 West Virginia does rush for more than 32 yards
35:51 in the first quarter.
35:52 It could simply be whoever gets the ball first
35:55 dictates the outcome of that question.
35:57 32 yards over under, I'm going to say over for West Virginia
36:00 in the run game, and in part because, yeah,
36:02 Garrett will be a part of it.
36:05 But, yeah, let's see how this one goes.
36:07 I wanted to dig deep.
36:08 I wanted to tie that 2011 game in.
36:11 So here we go.
36:12 Yeah, it's going to be a lot of fun, interesting game.
36:15 And, again, I've said all week this is a much better team
36:18 than the three wins that they've had all year.
36:19 On paper, they are a much better defensive front.
36:22 Two and two on the road, Scott.
36:24 Yeah, I mean, they're --
36:25 And it's not skewed by their schedule.
36:27 When you look at who they played at home,
36:28 who they played on the road,
36:29 no, it's not a function of that.
36:31 I mean, it's truly --
36:32 I said this in the preview episode.
36:34 I think what happens is Scott Satterfield
36:37 is a very high football IQ football coach,
36:41 and he leans into the notion that the two things
36:43 that traditionally travel well are good defense
36:46 and a solid run game.
36:47 And on the road, they really try and stress those two things,
36:50 maybe even a little more than at home,
36:52 and it's helped them as much as it hasn't.
36:55 So they're a two and two football team on the road.
36:59 I mean, there's a reason that, you know,
37:01 against a three and seven team,
37:03 you're favored by, you know, a little less than a touchdown.
37:05 So, absolutely.
37:08 I mean, there's things that are deficient with Cincinnati,
37:11 but there's also things to concern yourself
37:13 with Cincinnati.
37:14 And going back to the time of possession piece, Skyler,
37:17 this is where it impacts other things
37:20 that are downstream from that.
37:21 When you look at, for instance,
37:23 the time of possession piece for Cincinnati,
37:27 here's one way that it's helped them.
37:30 Cincinnati defensively,
37:33 when you look at yards per play allowed,
37:37 they're 12th in the Big 12.
37:39 They're allowing 5.97 yards per play.
37:42 That's 12th in the league.
37:44 But overall defensively, they're fourth in the league.
37:49 Even though yards per play, they're 12th.
37:51 Why is that?
37:53 In 10 games, they've only been forced to defend
37:56 because they're playing keep away with that time of possession.
37:59 609 snaps, by far the fewest in the Big 12.
38:04 So, they're defending 61 snaps a game.
38:07 The second fewest is Baylor at 64.
38:10 We're going to see the same style next week
38:11 when we face the Bears.
38:13 But so, if you can get Cincinnati on the field,
38:17 they do have a tendency,
38:20 when they're not at their best, to miss some tackles.
38:22 So, if you can get them on the field
38:25 and run that snap count up a little deeper
38:27 than what they're used to and get into their depth
38:29 a little bit, that's the thing that teams in transition
38:32 with new coaching staffs typically are afflicted with,
38:35 is depth.
38:36 So, if you can get into that, which a lot of teams haven't,
38:40 when Cincinnati struggled, they faced a few more snaps.
38:43 I mean, that's kind of the nature of it.
38:46 If you want to take a look at, for instance,
38:48 the snap counts that teams have run up on them,
38:50 Oklahoma managed 72 snaps.
38:52 Of course, Oklahoma controlled the flow of that football game.
38:55 Oklahoma State, 71 snaps.
38:58 Oklahoma State blew them out.
38:59 So, yeah, that matters.
39:01 So, Cincinnati is desperately going to try
39:04 and hold the football, hold that defensive snap count down,
39:07 so West Virginia, in turn,
39:08 has to try and prevent that from happening.
39:10 Yeah, they've had three one-scorer games
39:12 in the Big 12, and interestingly enough,
39:13 I think it's like four of the last six games
39:16 they've actually out-gamed their opponent,
39:19 which is crazy to think for a three-win team.
39:22 But, I mean, when I look at the Cincinnati team offensively,
39:26 it's almost like I get the Spider-Man meme image
39:28 popping up in my head with West Virginia and Cincinnati
39:30 just looking at each other like,
39:31 "I'm doing what you want to do.
39:32 I'm going to do what you want to do,"
39:34 because they have the same approach,
39:36 and that's what they want to do.
39:37 So, in reality, this might be like a two-hour game
39:40 because both teams are just going to want
39:41 to run the ball like crazy.
39:43 But we'll see how it all pans out this weekend in Morgantown.
39:46 Obviously, senior day, Don Nealon being immortalized.
39:50 It's going to be a fun weekend in Morgantown.
39:52 The last home game, so if you got a chance
39:54 or if you're considering about going to the game,
39:56 just go ahead and go.
39:58 It's the last one until next September,
40:00 and it's going to be a fun one.
40:02 So, West Virginia-Cincinnati, 2.30, streaming on ESPN+.
40:07 Hit that subscribe button on YouTube
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40:24 [BLANK_AUDIO]