العراق يواجه مخاطر تقلبات أسعار النفط والتهديدات الجيوسياسية
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00:00 "The Iraqi economy is facing major challenges during this period and even in the coming
00:07 years.
00:08 After Iraq recorded record levels of foreign reserves and government wills during the
00:14 past year, and even the economy growth during the past year by about 7.5%, and the arrival
00:20 of foreign reserves to more than $101 billion during the past year, based on the
00:26 latest figures, the Iraqi economy is facing major problems.
00:31 Why?
00:32 Because of the major exposure to hydrocarbon transformation and the fluctuation in oil
00:38 prices, and of course, the major problems facing the Iraqi economy.
00:43 Let's take a look at the models for the Iraqi economy, starting with the Iraqi financial
00:50 sector, which is the most important sector in the financial sector, with CWA1, and also
00:56 the local and foreign currency ceiling.
00:59 But the structural problems that the Iraqi economy is facing, starting with the major
01:04 exposure to oil prices fluctuations, as we said, we are talking about 90% of the government
01:09 wills come from oil sales.
01:11 We are talking about a political split, which Moody's talked about, as well as the ability
01:16 to deal with geopolitical tensions, which Iraq can face during this period, given the
01:22 conflict in Gaza and the war in Gaza, and the possibility of other parties, such as the
01:28 Iranian side, and others, to enter, which could affect the aid through Hormuz, and put
01:33 Iraq under these effects, which puts the Iraqi economy under threat, in addition to social
01:39 pressures related to unemployment and getting services, and others.
01:44 We are also talking about the difference in the exchange rate between the dollar and
01:49 the dinar during this period between the official market and the equilateral market.
01:53 We are also talking about oil revenues and oil prices in 2023 compared to the mid-2022.
02:02 In 2022, we saw an increase in oil prices, reaching levels of $140, generally the mid-year
02:09 level, around $100, but this year, the decline is clear, in a big way, in the mid-price
02:15 range, even during this period, it went from $75 to $80, and this affects the wills, and
02:21 also affects the increase in debt for the Iraqi economy, until 2025, from 44% to 60% in
02:31 2025, according to what Moody's expects.
02:35 So the Iraqi economy, and its big exposure to oil prices during this period, all of
02:41 this puts a lot of pressure on the Iraqi economy during the next period.