Why Everton Won't Get Relegated (Even With A Points Deduction)
Everton's 10-point deduction has pundits tipping them for relegation and fans fearing the worst, but already this season Sean Dyche has the Toffees playing in a way that's made them resilient at the back, and dangerous in attack. The numbers, for now, suggest they'll be absolutely fine.
Transcript
00:00 Hello there friends and loved ones, Adam Cleary from 442 here and it will not have escaped
00:08 your attention that Everton have been hit, slapped, knocked around the head with a 10
00:14 point deduction.
00:15 And that's terrible.
00:16 Now understandably Everton fans are fearing the worst, a lot of pundits are now tipping
00:19 them for relegation but if that is an opinion you hold then allow me to just sit you down
00:24 this afternoon or whenever you're watching this video and tell you that no, Everton have
00:28 something that no panel can ever take away from them and that is Sean Dyche.
00:35 And if you look at how they are playing under him and you look at all the underlying numbers
00:39 Everton honestly are going to be fine.
00:42 Alright so how do they play?
00:46 Well Sean Dyche has set them up in a very Sean Dyche way and that is this 4-4-1-1.
00:52 Now if you are an Everton fan you might be looking at this thinking, doesn't look quite
00:56 right to me because I've certainly never seen them spread across this much of the pitch
00:59 and that's because actually he has them set up like this.
01:03 As we touched on in the recent Brighton video Everton should have beaten Brighton because
01:09 they did this really effective, really disciplined, really well organised low block.
01:13 And after the last two seasons where they were one of the softest touchers in the entire
01:17 Premier League this just ability to contract the space to stop other teams playing to make
01:22 things really, really hard for the attacking side has led to them having the second lowest
01:27 number of open play goals conceded this season.
01:30 They've only conceded from open play eight times.
01:33 Oh is that good?
01:34 Is it Adam, 12 games played and only eight goals conceded from open play?
01:37 Is that impressive?
01:39 Is it?
01:40 Yes, it's joint second.
01:41 It's one behind Liverpool.
01:42 It is level.
01:43 It is the same as Arsenal and Man City.
01:45 In fact even when you just look at all the goals they've conceded this season it's only
01:49 17 like it's two more than Tottenham, it's one more than Man United.
01:54 It's the same as Aston Villa who are pushing for a Champions League place.
01:58 They have the defensive numbers of a very, very good team.
02:01 That's because of just how disciplined this is like Everton will deny you as much space
02:06 as possible.
02:07 They will congest the middle of the pitch.
02:09 Teams need space to play through.
02:11 Most teams crave space.
02:12 Most teams entire systems are based on finding space and Everton works so hard at denying
02:18 that from happening.
02:19 Now this might seem like a bit of a weird example to bring up because they literally
02:22 do concede a goal from this but the penalty Crystal Palace get against them actually perfectly
02:27 illustrates how they defend.
02:29 Once the ball comes out to Eze on this side just look at how well formed those two defensive
02:34 lines are.
02:35 There's barely any space in between them.
02:37 They're nice and compact.
02:38 None of these Crystal Palace players have any kind of space to play in.
02:42 Like I know it leads to a goal but when Dyche is watching that back he's probably going
02:46 to think yeah that's what I want.
02:48 Like even this bit I think that's Edward makes this brilliant run across that pulls Idrissa
02:52 Gay out of the space.
02:53 That should leave loads and loads of room for Eze to do something but they shuffle across
02:58 they compact in they fill the space they know what they're doing and as he gets into the
03:02 box they've still got those two banks of four.
03:05 Yes like I say they do concede from that but you can see from how well they're set up there
03:09 if they just do that every single game it's going to take an unbelievable run from an
03:14 incredibly talented player like Eze to really do anything with it and even there it was
03:19 slightly unfortunate in the way they gave away the penalty.
03:22 Like the result is bad sure but if you're watching that back you can see all the fundamentals
03:26 are really good.
03:28 Like even the Brighton equaliser took an incredibly jammy deflection off Ashley Young's leg and
03:32 if it wasn't for that they would have won that game.
03:35 They restricted all the space Brighton had on both sides of the pitch.
03:38 They kept forcing them to play these long switches of play over to the other side and
03:42 even finally when they did get one of those off and Matoma finds himself in some space
03:46 they shuffle across they close that down they stop him doing what he wants to do.
03:50 Now look at those two examples how many times a season is someone going to go on a mazer
03:54 that ends up in the box and they win a penalty?
03:56 How many times a season is somebody going to cut inside and get the perfect deflection
04:00 off someone's knee to score a really spawning goal?
04:03 Virtually never.
04:04 But the thing is while this is very structured and while it is very disciplined and while
04:08 it is seen that only concede eight goals from open play this season that is not enough to
04:14 make you a good team.
04:15 That is probably not even enough to keep you in the division.
04:18 You have to score goals and this is why Everton are ultimately going to be absolutely fine
04:24 this season.
04:25 The real genius of what Sean Dyche has done with this he's turned this compact defensive
04:30 unit into a genuinely really threatening attacking prospect.
04:34 Alright so when you look at all the data behind Everton this season two things jump out at
04:39 you immediately.
04:40 So first of all they lead the league they are the very top team for the combined number
04:45 of tackles and interceptions this season.
04:48 No team is more dogged in its defensive duties no team is better at the actual art of defending
04:55 itself.
04:56 They're the best Dyche has got them that good.
04:58 But secondly and this might take a little bit of explaining look at this graph that's
05:02 on the Okta website that basically shows you a team's attacking style.
05:07 The axis on the bottom going along shows on average how many passes are in those sequence
05:12 and the axis on the left going up shows how quickly they cover the distance across the
05:16 pitch from one end to the other.
05:18 Now you know how Manchester City play they have loads of possession they have loads of
05:21 the ball they work it slowly from back to front they pen you into your own box and they're
05:26 good enough to either play through the tiny gaps or they just keep it until you make a
05:29 mistake and then they hit you.
05:31 They are in the very bottom right of this graph because they are slow and they are intricate
05:36 they don't move the ball quickly and they do it with a lot of passes.
05:40 But look at Everton in this graph like second only to Luton who are constantly penned into
05:45 their own box because that's just kind of the level disparity they have in the Premier
05:48 League.
05:49 Everton not choosing to stay as compact to stay as deep and then when they do get the
05:53 ball launch upfield as quickly and directly as they possibly can.
05:59 It's pure, pure counter attacking football.
06:02 Now if you're not in Everton fine you're like are they really a counter attacking team?
06:05 Think back to last season's 5-1 against Brighton you remember that result everyone remembers
06:10 that result that was like five brilliantly explosive counter attacking goals.
06:14 They sat deep, they sat deep, they sat deep and then when they finally got the ball they
06:18 launched up the other end of the pitch and scored pretty much every chance they got.
06:21 And it's where they're getting so many of their goals from this season like it doesn't
06:24 matter where they win the ball back whether it's in the defensive third, the middle third,
06:27 their dog they are hounding the ball everywhere but when they do the first pass is forward
06:32 it's to one of the wide players it's to de Corey it's designed to get the ball into a
06:37 dangerous area before the opposition can try and reset and then do something with it and
06:42 they're getting better and better at doing something with it.
06:45 But while it's easy to sort of go oh Calvert-Lewin's back so they're going to score more goals
06:48 it's actually two other players in this system who are equally if not more important and
06:53 the first one is Mikalenko at left back and the second is de Corey in the sort of 10 role.
06:59 Like if you've got Mikalenko on FPL and you're wondering why all of a sudden he seems to
07:02 be scoring these goals because this system requires an explosive burst of pace up the
07:08 pitch.
07:09 It doesn't really need much structure when you do that just when it's turned over try
07:12 and get up there and do something and Mikalenko's engine and his pace and his ability means
07:17 he's always one of the first players arriving in attacking areas.
07:20 If we just look at this little still for a quick second right before they launch the
07:23 ball up the pitch for their first goal against Crystal Palace that's Dwight McNeil in the
07:27 left back area where is Mikalenko?
07:29 But oh look we knock it forward a few seconds and he's already up there with de Corey and
07:34 Calvert-Lewin because having just turned the ball over he's got to do that that's his job
07:38 he's got to go as far up the pitch as he can to try and make something happen and lo and
07:43 behold when his first shot is blocked he is on hand to score whenever and recycle the
07:48 chance.
07:49 He needs something happen but it's de Corey who's the most important here because as well
07:53 as just having the engine to get up the pitch you can see here when they turn the ball over
07:57 against West Ham straight away he knows he needs to be supporting that attack and he
08:02 gets up really well with it and likewise here when they turn the ball over against West
08:05 Ham and launch it direct up the pitch he's gone beyond Calvert-Lewin to win that flick
08:09 on he understands his role perfectly so while he will help with the press and the attack
08:13 and pretty much play as another striker with Calvert-Lewin he also isn't afraid to do this
08:18 to get into that pocket and defend there or do this and help them form a flat five to
08:23 make them even harder to play through and occasionally even do this on the rare occasions
08:28 that the opposition can find space between Everton's lines it isn't his job to be playing
08:33 in a structure so he will drop deeper beyond that to restrict the space even more like
08:39 he is without doubt in my opinion Everton's MVP already this season and credit where it's
08:44 due not just because he's got a great engine or a great attitude and he understands the
08:47 system he's also really really good like this pass for their winning goal against Crystal
08:52 Palace is absolutely chef's kiss if you've got a player who can do all this running and
08:58 cover all this ground and make that many sacrifices for this discipline system but can also go
09:05 up the other end and do little bits of magic with his feet you've got a real player and
09:10 more importantly you've got a real chance of not getting relegated so bottom line here
09:14 Sean Dyche has created a team took a little while but he has done it that does not really
09:19 concede goals from open play they're really difficult to play through and at the same
09:23 time as well as being that defensively disciplined they're really explosive at going up the other
09:29 pitch they're getting a lot of goals from being really good at counter-attacking out
09:33 of this system so let's just double check that when you don't concede goals easily and
09:39 you've got a really effective system for scoring them what does that make you well in this
09:43 division at worst it makes you a mid table team and obviously not to keep going on about
09:49 xg but it does kind of prove my point here if we look at their expected number of goals
09:54 so a measure of their attacking quality minus their number of expected goals again so a
09:59 measure of their defensive quality they come out smack bang in the middle of the premier
10:05 league ergo all they need to do to not get relegated this season is just what they're
10:11 already doing they're playing absolutely fine they're playing better than the majority
10:15 of teams in the bottom half of the league never mind the teams who were previously in
10:18 the relegations and like for god's sake they're two points behind Luton who were in 17th on
10:23 six points they could conceivably be out of trouble and forgetting about all this unpleasantness
10:29 in like a week so if you are one of those Everton fans that's now fearing the worst
10:34 or you are one of those pundits that's tipping them to go down because it'll just have a
10:37 really destabilizing effect like how can you play your football when all this is going
10:41 on yada yada yada bollocks Everton are good this year well they're not good but Everton
10:46 are fine this year they're solid they're dependable they're not gonna have as miserable a time
10:52 as they have been having they will be moving into that stadium of theirs barring any further
10:57 points deductions as a premier league team put your house on it anyway that's uh that's
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11:36 but until next time ever it'll be fine that's my considered opinion and i'll see you soon
11:41 bye