Explore the anticipated outcomes of the 2023 assembly elections with insights from Psephologist Dhananjai Joshi and Political Commentator Prof Sanjeev Ratna Singh, also the Dean of Times School of Media at Bennett University. Gain valuable perspectives as they analyze and discuss the exit poll results in 5 states of Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, MP, Telangana, Mizoram, shedding light on the potential political landscape emerging from this crucial electoral event.
#ExitPolls #ExitPollResults #ExitPolls2023 #TelanganaElectionExitPolls #RajasthanElectionExitPolls #ChhattisgarhElectionExitPolls #MPElectionExitPoll #MizoramExitPoll #ExitPollResultsLIVE #WhatIsExitPoll #OpinionPolls #ExitPollToday
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#ExitPolls #ExitPollResults #ExitPolls2023 #TelanganaElectionExitPolls #RajasthanElectionExitPolls #ChhattisgarhElectionExitPolls #MPElectionExitPoll #MizoramExitPoll #ExitPollResultsLIVE #WhatIsExitPoll #OpinionPolls #ExitPollToday
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Dhananjay, thank you so much for speaking to us.
00:02 Let's begin with Rajasthan.
00:04 And well, I chose this state to begin with
00:08 because alternating governments is what Rajasthan
00:11 has been throwing up.
00:12 Be it Jan Ki Baat, TV9, Pollstrat, Times Now, ETG,
00:16 or the Average Poll of Polls, it is giving BJP the numbers,
00:20 the required numbers of around 102 to 120,
00:24 which takes them beyond the halfway mark
00:27 of roughly 99 or 100.
00:29 And Congress, this time around, Ashok Gehlot, 70 to 89,
00:33 failing to make that mark.
00:36 Do you believe that this alternating trend
00:39 would continue in Rajasthan?
00:41 Or is it just the nature?
00:44 Or did Ashok Gehlot fail to read the writing on the wall?
00:49 Rajasthan is particularly interesting this time
00:51 because if you look at the pre-poll surveys,
00:53 and if you look at what's happening in Rajasthan,
00:57 this time around, for the first time,
00:59 there was this whole expectation that this three-decade-old
01:03 trend of alternating governments would be broken.
01:07 And Ashok Gehlot could actually come back.
01:09 He's had the unfortunate reputation
01:11 of being a chief minister who always loses an election.
01:16 So this time around, at the age of 72, 73,
01:19 he could have changed this record.
01:21 And one of the reasons was, of course,
01:25 the way the Congress somehow managed
01:29 to control faction in fighting between Sachin Palit
01:34 and Ashok Gehlot.
01:35 But the bigger reason, I think, was also
01:39 that there was the absence of Vasundhara Rajasindhia
01:44 at the helm of affairs.
01:46 And it is quite clear that many of her loyalists
01:54 who didn't get tickets have also contested as rebels.
01:58 So that could have been a factor.
02:01 But the sense that one gets is that as ticket distribution
02:07 went on, the Congress bungled up about 25, 30 tickets,
02:13 where they have given tickets to candidates who were not
02:16 really on the field, people who were 80-odd years old.
02:20 One of the candidates apparently was in the ICU
02:23 when he got a ticket.
02:24 And he also unfortunately passed away during the campaign.
02:27 That's why the election happened only in 199 seats.
02:31 So this kind of finally self-sabotage
02:36 kind of a story of the Congress could actually
02:39 cost it the opportunity to break this trend.
02:44 It's clearly advantaged BJP, if you look at the polls.
02:47 But I would still say, given the absence of Vasundhara Rajasindhia
02:52 and all the other factors, it might be too close to call.
02:58 You're right.
02:59 I mean, the numbers also are pointing in Rajasthan.
03:04 Possibly, since I spent some time also over there,
03:06 looks like it is going to be a tough one there.
03:11 Dhananjay, stay with us.
03:12 We are also joined by Professor Sanjeev Ratan Singh,
03:15 political commentator, Dean, Time School of Media,
03:18 Bennett University.
03:19 Sanjeev, thank you so much for speaking to us.
03:22 And always a pleasure to host you.
03:25 Needless to say, for our viewers,
03:27 we have worked together earlier in my very earlier careers.
03:31 Thank you, Sanjeev, for once again taking time out.
03:35 What Dhananjay says as of now, when
03:37 it comes to the critical case of Rajasthan,
03:41 the loss for the Congress there is not just
03:45 because of an alternating government trend that
03:48 has been there in Rajasthan.
03:50 Do you believe Ashok Geylal could
03:51 have done a few things better in order to maybe buckle
03:55 this trend after three decades?
03:56 That's a very tough question, because I
04:02 think Ashok Geylal has tried every trick in the book
04:05 to make sure that he comes back to power
04:07 and change the trend, which we have witnessed
04:12 for the past three decades, where BJP and Congress have
04:15 been sharing power.
04:16 I think more or less, I agree with Dhananjay
04:19 on most of the points.
04:20 When the campaign started, it seemed
04:25 as if Congress had the edge.
04:27 But I think by the end of it, the BJP somehow
04:30 managed to get their house in order
04:32 and get things going on the ground.
04:35 And there seemed to be a little bit of overconfidence
04:38 on part of the Congress in Rajasthan, at least.
04:40 And that, I think, seems to have cost them a lot.
04:44 Plus, BJP's rule book is very clear
04:47 that when it comes to anti-incumbency,
04:49 they just change their candidates in the elections.
04:54 So they've done that.
04:55 Congress also tried to do it, but they were neither here
04:58 nor there.
04:59 So therefore, that situation arose.
05:01 Then, of course, there are smaller parties,
05:04 which play a very important part.
05:05 Each election, we see about 20-odd seats
05:08 going to these smaller parties.
05:10 So there seems to be better coordination of BJP
05:12 with these smaller parties, which
05:15 seems to be giving BJP the edge as of now.
05:18 So I would say it's a close call.
05:21 But I think BJP somehow seems to have got their act together
05:25 right in the end.
05:26 Plus, historically, I think what results of the past three
05:30 decades show, we will have to give an edge to the BJP.
05:33 BJP itself.
05:34 But definitely, that's the benefit of doubt, as you say,
05:38 in cricketing parlance also.
05:41 Dhananjay, talking about Madhya Pradesh now,
05:44 the figures coming out from there
05:46 obviously pointing to a hung assembly.
05:49 Obviously, Congress trying to bounce back into power
05:53 with what happened with Kamal Nath in 2020.
05:57 And now, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, still the numbers
06:00 tilting in favor of BJP there in Madhya Pradesh.
06:04 But it looks like a tight contest, a neck and neck
06:06 there in Madhya Pradesh.
06:08 [AUDIO OUT]
06:12 Right, indeed.
06:12 Because I was personally, after getting
06:16 ground reports from Madhya Pradesh,
06:19 was of the opinion that the Congress will pull it off.
06:22 And there were two or three major factors behind it.
06:26 One was the identity distribution.
06:27 This time, Kamal Nath was in full control.
06:30 So faction fighting wasn't there the way
06:33 we saw faction fighting in 2018, where
06:37 Kamal Nath and Digvijay Singh were on one side,
06:40 and Jyotindra Ditya Singh there finally managed only about 30
06:45 or so tickets in the Chambal Gwalior area.
06:48 And the rest were all Kamal Nath's call.
06:51 This time around, there was no such factor.
06:54 So one, the Congress party was more united, so to say.
06:58 The other, the second reason was that there
07:01 was an element of fatigue with Shivraj Singh Chauhan's
07:06 government.
07:07 Right from 2014, till date, there
07:10 have been more and more scams and things going wrong.
07:13 And those attacks on tribals, on Dalits, et cetera,
07:17 were all popularized by the Congress's social media cell.
07:21 And ultimately, there seemed to be
07:23 a bad, negative sentiment against Shivraj Singh Chauhan.
07:28 The final factor that I was looking at
07:31 was that as many as 40 leaders who left the Congress
07:35 and went to switch sides towards the BJP with Jyotindra Ditya
07:38 Singh there went back to the Congress.
07:42 Now, here I would like to say that Jyotindra Ditya Singh
07:45 there is one of those few leaders who are really
07:49 popular in their own region.
07:51 So Gwalior Chambal region, he's like a superstar.
07:54 Like the Hoodas in Jhajjar Rohtak, for instance.
07:58 So he's a regional star in that sense.
08:02 And even though he's so popular, people who had stayed with him
08:08 chose to go back to the Congress.
08:10 So that meant that there was some ground sweat.
08:13 But on the other hand, Shivraj Singh Chauhan
08:16 is, if I may say so, one of the most sweet, smart leaders
08:19 you see today in today's politics.
08:21 So although he wasn't really announced
08:24 to be the chief minister for the fourth time,
08:27 because that would have maybe affected a lot of equations.
08:31 But he is a very, very smart politician.
08:35 And the way the BJP worked, putting in ministers,
08:39 senior leaders like Narendra Singh Tomar and others
08:43 to contest with Han Sabha, I think ultimately it
08:47 has worked to the BJP's advantage.
08:50 And that is why Madhya Pradesh today,
08:52 if you look at the exit polls, seems
08:55 to be going towards the BJP.
08:57 If I were to pick the polls with a better track record,
09:02 so to speak.
09:03 On the other hand, if I were to put my money on either party,
09:10 I would say it's again a close call.
09:13 And I'm just surprised because if this
09:16 is the case, then it's very unfortunate for the Congress.
09:19 Because they have actually lost a great opportunity
09:22 that they had.
09:23 Madhya Pradesh is one of the strongholds of the BJP
09:26 and breaking into that would have given them
09:28 a big boost for 2024.
09:32 And if they've lost it, it's certainly a big loss for them.
09:36 Right, Sanjeev Gandhi, you need to call Madhya Pradesh.
09:39 And also, in this election season of promises
09:45 and guarantees, do you believe that the last minute
09:49 push from the Shivraj Singh Chauhan government,
09:52 be it the Ladli Behna Yojana, do you
09:53 think it will sail it through just past the magic figure
09:57 in Madhya Pradesh?
10:00 You know, I would say that it's still close.
10:03 But if I have to choose one party between the two,
10:05 again, unfortunately, it will be the BJP.
10:09 Because as Dhananjay said, this was the best opportunity
10:13 for the Congress party to make its mark in Madhya Pradesh.
10:18 The infighting was so-called very limited
10:20 because most of the people who were infighting
10:25 had moved out.
10:27 And the fact that some of the leaders who
10:30 moved with Jyotirad and Sindhiya to BJP
10:32 came back actually was an indicator
10:35 that the Congress was on a very strong wicket.
10:37 We even saw Digvijay Singh carry out his election campaign
10:42 on those 66 seats, which they thought
10:44 that they were very weak.
10:45 He actually covered almost 100 of those seats.
10:48 And like he had done in the 2018 election
10:51 where he went to do the Narmada Parikrama,
10:54 there were a lot of expectations and hope
10:56 from the so-called Jai Viru duo of the Congress party.
11:00 But as Dhananjay has pointed out,
11:02 that Shivraj Singh Chauhan is a person who
11:05 can carry other leaders with him.
11:07 And I think he showed a lot of accommodation
11:11 when it came to ticket distribution
11:13 and the general campaigning that was done.
11:16 He even lived with the fact that there
11:19 has been no official chief ministerial
11:21 candidate of the BJP that's been announced in the campaign.
11:25 So I think there was a sense of purpose in the BJP
11:29 that we've lost ground.
11:30 We need to cover.
11:31 We need to work together as a team.
11:32 And we need to make sure that we have an even
11:37 keel against the Congress.
11:38 Because remember, they are dealing
11:40 with people like Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath
11:43 in the Congress party.
11:44 If these two actually get a free hand to run Madhya Pradesh,
11:48 then it could be a major problem for the BJP.
11:51 But historically, we've seen that the BJP
11:54 has had very strong roots in Madhya Pradesh.
11:58 Even now, the polling percentages, et cetera,
12:01 they do very well in almost 130-odd seats.
12:05 It's only the 100 seats where they don't do that well.
12:08 So I would say that I will still give benefit or doubt
12:12 to BJP in this close contest with Madhya Pradesh.
12:16 Obviously, I'm not sure--
12:17 Obviously, and the popularity of Mamaji,
12:19 I mean, obviously a tough challenge there for the Congress
12:23 at least to make to those last extra miles.
12:27 One key state, both Dhananjay and Sanjeev,
12:31 which draws our attention, is Telangana.
12:33 Now, nine years of rule by BRS is the formation
12:38 of the state of Telangana in 2014,
12:40 until now when Congress appears to be,
12:44 with almost all the pollsters that have been
12:49 as of now showcasing the numbers,
12:51 Congress, on an average, marking it to 57 to 66
12:56 in 119 seats of Telangana,
12:59 BRS slipping down to 40 to 49,
13:02 BJP very distant, five to eight seats.
13:06 On an average, only Janki Bath has taken them
13:09 to the two figures there.
13:11 What word for Congress,
13:14 as far as the state of Telangana is concerned,
13:16 I won't say a new playground for Congress,
13:22 but still, Dhananjay, how do you read these numbers
13:26 for Congress and BRS both?
13:28 The big takeaway of this election after,
13:32 you know, the whole possibility of Congress
13:35 breaking the trend in Rajasthan,
13:37 the big takeaway from this election is Telangana.
13:40 Because if the Congress has actually managed
13:42 to be in the fight and too close in the fight,
13:47 and in fact, if you look at polls,
13:51 they might well end up forming the government.
13:54 That is going to be a big boost for the Congress.
13:56 Now, the BRS, on the other hand,
13:58 is a party that has come out of a movement.
14:02 So, there were very high expectations, of course,
14:06 with KCR.
14:08 Now, certainly things didn't go the way they were expected,
14:13 10 years of anti-incumbency, et cetera.
14:15 But if you look at it, what has happened is,
14:18 the MIM hasn't really grown the way it was growing
14:22 in the last six, seven years.
14:25 So, it seems to be again, restricted to Hyderabad,
14:29 Nizamabad, kind of, you know, urban pockets.
14:34 On the other hand, if you look at the BJP,
14:37 last Lok Sabha, one big takeaway for the BJP was
14:42 that it's doing well in Telangana.
14:46 In fact, many star candidates of the BRS
14:50 actually got a run for their money,
14:53 and the BJP was doing very, very well.
14:56 Now, the BJP has also not done well in this election.
15:00 That's pretty clear.
15:02 And these two factors together have given a boost
15:06 to the Congress.
15:07 So, consolidation of Muslim votes,
15:11 consolidation of ready votes,
15:14 and capitalizing on the failed promise of the TRS,
15:19 so to say, the TRS, which is now the BRS,
15:23 so to say, seems to have worked to the Congress's advantage.
15:28 And if they actually form, get a majority
15:31 from the government, it is going to be a big boost for them,
15:34 because then they are in power in two states of South India,
15:39 out of the five states they are in power,
15:41 they're going to be in power in two states.
15:43 And then, of course, they are in alliance in Tamil Nadu.
15:47 So, they will be very well placed in South India
15:52 for the 2024 elections.
15:55 So, that's going to be a big factor in this election.
15:59 - Right. Sanjeev, two things that come from here.
16:03 First, obviously, the infighting within the BJP,
16:08 the kind of changes that were being made,
16:10 Telangana BJP chief was changed,
16:12 Pandey Sanjeev was moved out,
16:14 in came G Kishan Reddy,
16:15 that too with some sort of speculations.
16:18 That's one factor that could have aided,
16:20 or I would like to know from you
16:22 how that impacted the fortunes of BJP,
16:26 or maybe helped Congress.
16:28 And secondly, the role of AIMIM, Asaduddin Oase,
16:33 I mean, his role and his party's positioning
16:35 in Bihar assembly elections,
16:37 or other state elections have at times played the role of,
16:40 you know, cutting the votes for the incumbent government.
16:43 Do you believe something of this sort also played out?
16:46 - The larger thing was happening because,
16:49 you know, as Dhananjayji has pointed out,
16:51 we had the GHMC elections in 2020,
16:55 and that's when we saw the real spurt for the BJP.
16:59 They did really well,
17:01 they almost gave a fright to the TRS,
17:04 which is now the BRS.
17:05 And, you know, there was this talk that BJP
17:08 is going to just sweep the state
17:10 by the time the elections come.
17:12 But what we're actually seeing that,
17:14 you know, when the campaign started,
17:16 I spoke to a few people,
17:18 and I was surprised that, you know,
17:19 they were saying that, you know,
17:20 actually the Congress is doing well.
17:22 And then, you know, on doing some more research,
17:25 there seems to be this perception getting ground
17:28 in Telangana that, you know,
17:30 all the other parties like the BRS, AIMM, BJP,
17:34 they all seem to be having some sort of a tacit understanding
17:39 to keep the Congress out.
17:40 And therefore, what could have happened is that,
17:44 this election could have become something like
17:46 Congress versus the rest election.
17:49 And in that case,
17:50 and as Dhananjayji has pointed out
17:52 that the minority consolidation has played a major role
17:55 for the Congress party if they do well in this election.
17:58 So, you know, that kind of feeling when it comes in,
18:02 and coupled with the fact that you have somebody like
18:04 KCR and the chief minister,
18:06 who spent most of his time trying to stifle,
18:10 you know, demonstrations and protests,
18:12 which were happening.
18:13 So, you know, for a state that is born out of these
18:15 kind of protests to see that the leader
18:18 is actually trying to muzzle the same thing
18:21 by not providing infrastructure,
18:23 but to muzzle these things.
18:24 So I think that has been a major drawback for the BRS.
18:28 And the fact that this perception that, you know,
18:30 everybody wants to keep the Congress out,
18:32 seems to be working in favor of the Congress.
18:34 And if they do form the government, as Dhananjayji said,
18:38 there is no doubt that it will be a big shot in the arm
18:41 for the Congress party before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.