Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces the biggest parliamentary test of his premiership as lawmakers vote on his plan to send asylum seekers to live in Rwanda.
The UK Supreme Court ruled last month that Rwanda was an unsafe place to send those arriving in small boats on England's southern coast, and that the policy would breach British and international law.
In response, Sunak has agreed a new treaty with Rwanda and brought forward emergency legislation to override domestic and international human rights law.
The move has deeply divided his party, alienating both moderates, who are worried about Britain breaching its human rights obligations, and right-wing politicians, who contend it does not go far enough.
the i's political editor Hugo Gye explains everything that could go wrong with Rishi Sunak's Rwanda Plan ahead of the crucial vote.
The UK Supreme Court ruled last month that Rwanda was an unsafe place to send those arriving in small boats on England's southern coast, and that the policy would breach British and international law.
In response, Sunak has agreed a new treaty with Rwanda and brought forward emergency legislation to override domestic and international human rights law.
The move has deeply divided his party, alienating both moderates, who are worried about Britain breaching its human rights obligations, and right-wing politicians, who contend it does not go far enough.
the i's political editor Hugo Gye explains everything that could go wrong with Rishi Sunak's Rwanda Plan ahead of the crucial vote.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 I'm Hugo Jai, we're here at Westminster on one of the biggest days of Rishi Sunak's career
00:04 and we're looking at everything that just might go wrong with his plan to tackle illegal immigration.
00:09 The number one threat, the biggest threat that we're all focused on right now
00:19 is that he might lose this vote tonight.
00:21 Dozens of Tory MPs from the right of the party are threatening to vote against the bill
00:29 because they say it doesn't go far enough, it doesn't guarantee that migrants can be sent to Rwanda
00:35 without the courts intervening to stop it.
00:38 Rishi Sunak is, as we speak, locked in talks with these rebels.
00:42 The outcome remains highly uncertain.
00:45 Whether they are willing to bite the bullet and vote against Rishi Sunak
00:50 knowing that it could potentially end up bringing down the government remains uncertain.
00:55 But one thing's for sure right now, they're not happy.
00:59 It's very possible that he will win tonight
01:03 but that doesn't mean that Rishi Sunak is out of the woods in any sense of the word.
01:08 One threat is that the right-wingers could back him tonight
01:13 but keep up this running battle over the bill in the months to come.
01:19 They are likely to push for the bill to be hardened up.
01:23 They'll want the government to lay amendments to it when it comes back to the Commons in the new year
01:28 that make it even harder and that make it even more tricky
01:33 for asylum seekers to launch a challenge against their deportation.
01:37 But it's not just the right of the party that Rishi Sunak has to worry about.
01:43 The centrist One Nation group has said they will back this bill for now
01:47 but they are intensely worried about the way that it effectively waters down human rights laws
01:52 and suspends human rights legislation entirely for certain groups of people.
01:57 They've said they can back the bill in its current form
02:00 but if it gets any tougher, if those human rights laws are watered down any further
02:05 and if there's any further hint of Britain's international treaty obligations
02:10 being threatened by the legislation in any amended form
02:14 they've said they will vote against it and crucially, unlike the right of the Tory party
02:19 the centrist can always team up with Labour to water it down
02:24 and essentially push it in a more liberal direction.
02:28 It's not just the House of Commons that Rishi Sunak has to worry about.
02:33 It's the House of Lords too.
02:35 Even if this bill makes it through the House of Commons, if it's approved by the right, if it's approved by the left
02:40 the House of Lords is absolutely packed with lawyers, human rights experts, academics
02:47 and retired politicians who take Britain's international obligations and international image extremely seriously.
02:55 They are certain to have things to say about this bill.
02:58 It wasn't in the Tory manifesto, so the Lords is not bound by the convention
03:03 that they let the government's manifesto promises sail through.
03:07 There's every chance that they are going to pass their own amendments which further weaken this bill
03:12 and that of course would make it even more unacceptable to the right.
03:17 Let's imagine though that it goes through the Commons and it goes through the Lords
03:23 and this bill becomes law in January or February.
03:26 Rishi Sunak says that's going to be enough to get this Rwanda plan off the ground at last.
03:32 He might be right, but he might be wrong.
03:35 Legal experts are divided. This case will go back to the courts.
03:39 Asylum seekers who are earmarked for deportation for Rwanda will launch legal challenges if they can.
03:45 And it remains possible that the courts could just block the policy once again
03:51 and that brings us straight back to square one.
03:54 (upbeat music)