DFS Lineup: Smart Strategies with Christian McCaffrey
Transcript
00:00 Let's build DFS lineups and be smart about it.
00:04 Start the running back.
00:05 Smart Conversations starts with Christian McCaffrey, right?
00:09 10-5 on Fandle, 9-3 on DK.
00:13 Joe, what's the smart way to build a lineup
00:16 and let's start here.
00:18 - Well, look, once again, we run into the same problem.
00:20 We talked about it last week that in catch games,
00:22 Christian McCaffrey makes a lot of sense
00:23 because you're locking in an enormous amount of points.
00:26 Last week, 145 yards in the ground.
00:28 I think he had a 70-yard run or whatever it was
00:30 to open the game basically.
00:31 So it was a good situation there for him.
00:34 But if you look at the half PPR scoring,
00:36 that only ended up equating to 15.8 points.
00:40 So it was a letdown from that standpoint, right?
00:42 So we warned that it would be not good in tournaments
00:45 because he would have to have a monstrous game.
00:47 Now, speaking of monstrous games,
00:48 if you go back and look at the last game against Arizona,
00:50 you can call that a monstrous game.
00:51 20 carries for 106.
00:53 He also had seven receptions for 71.
00:56 He had four touchdowns in that game.
00:59 Now, that game gave you 45 half PPR points.
01:02 That's a pretty good day at the office.
01:03 Can he repeat that going to Arizona today?
01:06 It's certainly in the range of outcomes.
01:08 And because the slate we're looking at
01:09 is almost like a bi-week slate, if you figure it,
01:11 because six teams played yesterday, right?
01:14 So when six teams play yesterday,
01:15 that's pretty much like looking at Sunday as a bi-week.
01:18 We're talking like this might as well be week seven, right?
01:21 So there's less options out there.
01:23 Now, there are some good ones.
01:24 There are some cheaper ones.
01:24 I think we want to pivot off of McCaffrey,
01:26 just like we talked about pivoting off him last week,
01:28 because that price was just too high.
01:29 And if things went backwards, as they did, all of a sudden,
01:32 it could really hurt you.
01:33 I mean, the cash games where he was probably highly rostered,
01:36 you could look at McCaffrey and say, oh,
01:37 best McCaffrey lineup wins.
01:39 So you could get by.
01:40 But you couldn't get by if he failed in tournaments
01:42 at that price.
01:42 And he failed.
01:43 Therefore, you could not cash in tournaments
01:45 if he had McCaffrey last week.
01:46 So to me, it's the same issue.
01:48 Same thing going forward.
01:50 You also have Debo Samuel.
01:51 He's going to take some touchdown equity away from him,
01:53 potentially take some carries away from him as well.
01:56 So now that he has been healthy and on the roll
01:58 that he has been on San Francisco,
02:00 that offense would go in there and absolutely smash.
02:02 I don't care if the Arizona Cardinals are coming off a bye.
02:05 McCaffrey's a great play this week.
02:06 He should have good fantasy points.
02:08 But can he return that 3x value on 10.5 on FanDuel?
02:12 That's asking a lot.
02:13 On DraftKings, he's going to have
02:15 to get another seven receptions like that last game.
02:17 And you can't expect a guy to have four touchdowns every time
02:19 he plays a team.
02:20 It's not impossible.
02:22 But I think chasing it is very dangerous.
02:23 I think there's better options
02:25 in terms of return on investment.
02:27 So again, for the second week in a row,
02:29 unfortunately we're going to fade McCaffrey.
02:30 We'll see if we're right both weeks.
02:32 (upbeat music)
02:35 (upbeat music)