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NewsTranscript
00:00 Some investors and traders, especially those who buy yen, were expecting a positive surprise,
00:11 but it did not happen today.
00:14 We do not know if it will happen in the coming months, but today it was not like that.
00:21 The Japanese Central Bank has kept the interest rates in the negative range without any change or any indication of when it will start to renew the monetary policy.
00:34 The Japanese Central Bank has indeed fixed the interest rates at a negative 0.1%.
00:41 The Central Bank is the only bank in the world that keeps the interest rates in the negative range.
00:51 There is no indication of when this monetary policy will end, according to the statements we heard from the Japanese Central Bank.
01:01 On the other hand, those who were hoping to see a rise in the target interest rate, especially for the next 10 years,
01:11 this did not happen either. The interest rate remained at the maximum level at 1% and therefore there was no change in the policy.
01:22 The Japanese Central Bank said that the increase in interest rates is still behind the trend of rising prices.
01:28 The target interest rate may not be a target.
01:31 Today, we may see a slowdown in the level of interest rates and a slowdown in growth,
01:38 but at the same time we see a decline in the interest rate.
01:43 This may confuse the Japanese Central Bank in the coming steps.
01:49 As for the market reaction, it was very positive.
01:53 The US dollar, which was the only currency in the world to have a large decline of more than 1%
02:04 and we reached a level of 144 yen.
02:10 This is also positive for the stock markets, as we saw a high of more than 1% today.
02:19 We saw how the decision was made and how the Nikkei reacted to this monetary policy.
02:28 As for the future expectations of the Japanese Central Bank,
02:35 today the swap rates still indicate a 90% probability of increasing interest rates
02:43 in the first quarter of next year or the second quarter of April,
02:50 which is likely to be 90% and 45% to increase it in the first quarter of 2023 in January.
02:59 What the ING Bank expects is to cancel the control of the family's mortgage on bonds in January.
03:06 Today, the interest rate is 1% and this cancellation may give a large rise in the interest rates.
03:14 This may have an effect on yen even more than the increase in interest rates in the previous quarter.
03:22 The interest rates began to rise in the second quarter of 2024, which is consistent with the market.
03:29 As for Reuters, the interest rates began to rise in April and 80% expect a steady increase in interest rates by the end of next year.
03:40 The Japanese Central Bank may be the only bank to raise interest rates,
03:46 despite the fact that most or all other major central banks will lower interest rates, according to market expectations.