This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days, dated 20/12/2023.
The weather in the run up to Christmas is looking quite unsettled with some strong winds and heavy rain at times. There will also be something wintry around at times, but will it be a white Christmas? We take a look at the chances.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
The weather in the run up to Christmas is looking quite unsettled with some strong winds and heavy rain at times. There will also be something wintry around at times, but will it be a white Christmas? We take a look at the chances.
Bringing you this 10 day trend is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
~
Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - https://www.youtube.com/c/metoffice?sub_confirmation=1
We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello, very good day to you. Welcome to your latest Met Office 10 day trend. I will be
00:05 going through the weather we can expect as we go through the rest of 2023. But first,
00:10 I thought I'd take a quick glimpse at what we can expect on Christmas Day. At the moment,
00:15 it does look like low pressure, perhaps towards the northeast of the UK, bringing something
00:18 showery, possibly wintry, but also quite windy here. Elsewhere, and apart from this frontal
00:24 system which should have cleared away towards the south, it's actually looking largely dry
00:28 for Christmas Day. I'll have more details on that shortly. First, let's get through
00:33 the rest of this week. And at the moment, through Wednesday evening into Thursday, we
00:37 are heavily under the influence of a deep area of low pressure towards the north of
00:42 the UK and an exceptionally high area of high pressure out in the Atlantic. And it's this
00:47 huge contrast in our pressure, this huge pressure gradient that is leading to some very strong
00:52 winds. Those strong winds are really going to pick up as we go through Wednesday evening
00:56 and into Thursday. We're likely to see gusts in excess of 60, possibly up to 80 miles per
01:02 hour in exposed spots, which is why we do have a warning in force. It's worth bearing
01:06 in mind this feature has been named by the Danish Met Service Stormpyr because it is
01:11 in Denmark where we're going to see the strongest winds. Nonetheless, we are likely to see some
01:16 impacts on the roads. A lot of people traveling at this time of year. So do take care if you
01:21 are heading on the roads or traveling in any way because it is going to be a very windy
01:25 day. Across the bulk of the UK it will be windy, but especially in the north where we
01:29 do have a warning in force. Looking at the details for Thursday then, and it's going
01:32 to be a showery picture for many of us. Some of those showers could be quite heavy, some
01:36 hail, perhaps even some thunder mixed in and a little bit of winteriness, some sleet or
01:41 snow over the higher ground of Scotland and a cold feel to things or a chilly feel across
01:46 northern parts, temperatures dropping as we go through the day. Highs around 8 to 6 Celsius
01:51 across parts of Scotland. Meanwhile, further south it's going to be a fair bit milder,
01:56 could see highs around 13 or 14 Celsius here. But it's those winds that are really going
02:00 to be most impactful and they will make it feel colder, especially across northern parts.
02:05 Further showers then piling in on those strong north northwesterly winds as we go through
02:10 Thursday evening. Still some further winteriness across parts of Scotland in particular, some
02:14 clearer skies towards eastern parts perhaps, but turning cloudier through the night and
02:19 with the winds and the cloud, it's not going to be a particularly chilly night for most
02:22 of us as we go into Friday. That's because we have generally mild air across the bulk
02:27 of the UK as we head into Friday. A different story across the far north northeast here,
02:32 we have something a little bit colder, which is why temperatures will be quite a bit lower
02:36 here, but otherwise it is going to be a fairly mild start. As we go through the day itself
02:41 then, quite a bit of cloud for most of us and outbreaks of rain, particularly towards
02:44 the west. Some drizzly rain at times, but could turn a little bit heavy. Notice in the
02:49 south southwest, we're likely to see something a little bit dry and perhaps even brighter
02:53 for a time as we go into the afternoon and temperatures in the south near normal, highs
02:57 around 12, possibly 13 Celsius, but markedly lower than this across the north because of
03:03 that colder air that I highlighted. Temperatures really suppressed here and with some precipitation
03:08 around we are likely to see some sleet or snow. We could even see some snow accumulations
03:13 building up as we go through Friday with more persistent rain then pushing its way in later
03:17 on in the day. If we look at snow accumulations then as we go through Friday and while we
03:23 could see something building up, perhaps, well a few centimetres quite likely for a
03:28 few places across parts of Scotland. These charts here show the probability of us seeing
03:32 more than five centimetres on the left hand side and more than 10 centimetres of lying
03:37 snow as we go through Friday. So a reasonable chance, the reds showing a very high probability
03:42 of some decent lying snow across parts of northern Scotland on Friday and a slightly
03:47 less chance of seeing greater than 10 centimetres but it's non-zero nonetheless. And notice
03:52 also for Shetland, here we have a chance of some significant snow perhaps and so when
03:57 you factor in those strong winds, which won't be as strong on Friday as they will be on
04:01 Thursday, but it is going to be a windy day for many of us, we could have some blizzard
04:05 conditions particularly across parts of Shetland. So some difficult conditions, like I said,
04:10 lots of us heading out on the roads at this time of year. The other thing then to look
04:14 at as we go through Friday is the fact that there could be some lightning around. Now
04:18 this chart behind me is a tephigram. I don't really have the time now to go through exactly
04:24 what this shows but it is a tephigram for Shetland and what it is showing is this area
04:29 shows where there's the energy, the instability and it's that instability that could lead
04:34 to some big clouds, some cumulonimbus clouds developing, leading to the risk of some thunder
04:40 and lightning. As a result, along with those strong winds and the snow, we could have some
04:44 thunder mixed in across parts of Shetland in particular. So we could have some thundersnow
04:48 on Friday. But let's look further ahead and let's look towards the weekend and what we
04:54 wake up to on Saturday morning, well it's likely to be a pretty wet picture across northern
04:58 parts, perhaps some snow mixed in with that for a time, but then all that rain pushes
05:02 its way south and eastwards as we go through Christmas Eve. So I think many of us in the
05:07 last few days before Christmas will see some outbreaks of rain. That could be a bit heavy
05:11 at times, could cause some problems again. Like I said, lots of people traveling at this
05:15 time of year. But it is going to be a mild weekend for many of us. Notice there's some
05:21 cold air still fringing towards far northern parts perhaps, so never too far away. But
05:26 for many of us it's a mild picture. So although yes, it is going to be wet and windy at times
05:31 for many of us as we go through the 23rd and the 24th, it is also going to be pretty mild,
05:37 especially towards the south. But those rainfall totals then that I mentioned, like I said
05:42 we could have some problems because of the heavy rain. So notice across, oh sorry, I
05:47 should mention this chart shows us our 24-hour rainfall accumulations through Saturday the
05:53 23rd of December. And on the left hand side we have the Met Office model. In the middle
05:57 we have the ECMWF, so the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model.
06:02 And on the right hand side we have GFS, the American model. And what they're all showing,
06:06 they're in fairly good agreement, is that we are likely to see some significant heavy
06:10 rain across western parts of Scotland in particular. Elsewhere there will be some rain around,
06:16 for most at least. The EC highlighting that across the southeast on Saturday it's largely
06:20 dry. But yes, some significant rain, particularly across western parts of Scotland. I think
06:24 50 to 70 millimetres seems quite likely. Could be a little bit more, perhaps worst case scenario
06:29 around 90, pardon me, to 100 millimetres of rain is possible. So it does look like it's
06:35 going to be a pretty wet day there. Also some further heavy rain to come as we go through
06:39 Christmas Eve, particularly across western parts of, well, north western parts of Wales.
06:45 Here we could see perhaps 40 to 60 millimetres, maybe even a little bit more than that. So
06:51 significant rainfall here. Also north west England and some further heavy rain for western
06:55 Scotland where we will already have had a pretty wet day on the 23rd. So that again
06:59 could cause some further issues. Notice ECMWF is largely in agreement with the Met Office
07:04 model. The GFS one slightly different. The resolution for this model in the UK is quite
07:09 low. So not the best steer here. I think it's better to look at these two models, but I
07:13 wanted to show you them nonetheless. Either way, it does look like it is going to be a
07:17 pretty wet picture in the run up to Christmas Day at least. However, for Christmas Day itself
07:22 then, and I already showed you a glimpse at this, I think the main thing to take away
07:26 is that for most of us, it's looking largely dry. There is this frontal system that could
07:31 still be lingering across far southern parts. So we may wake up to a little bit of drizzly
07:35 rain first thing, but for most we are going to be under the influence of this weak ridge
07:40 of high pressure. So a largely dry picture. However, notice towards the north northeast
07:44 of the UK, low pressure in control here. So it's going to be quite windy, blustery, and
07:49 we are likely to see some showers mixed in with this and with some colder air across
07:54 northern parts of the UK, those showers could well be wintry. So let's look at the details
07:59 for Christmas Day. And this chart breaks it down quite nicely. I think in terms of if
08:03 you're looking for a white Christmas, and there's a reasonable chance that for the UK
08:07 it will technically be one. Remember the Met Office definition, we only need one flake
08:11 of snow recorded officially somewhere in the UK. And with the chance of some wintry showers,
08:16 particularly across northern parts, I think it is quite likely. So the greatest chance
08:20 of seeing some snow on Christmas Day will be across parts of northern central Scotland,
08:25 particularly the higher ground. You could see maybe four to eight centimetres over the
08:29 higher ground if we see those wintry showers really kicking off and that colder air does
08:34 plunge its way a little bit further southwards. Meanwhile, slightly further south into more
08:39 central southern parts of Scotland and perhaps the far north of England, you can rule out
08:42 some wintry showers, but it's less likely. And it's really only going to be over the
08:47 higher ground that we'd see any sleet or snow. And then for the bulk of the UK, like I said,
08:51 we may wake up to a little bit of drizzly rain, perhaps, especially towards the south.
08:56 But for most of us, it at the moment is looking largely dry, albeit perhaps windy rather than
09:02 white. There is some uncertainty in the details for the forecast for Christmas Day. Now, this
09:07 chart shows the probability of where any fronts will be lying. And I've circled the UK and
09:13 that front that I mentioned likely to be lying across southern parts of the UK because you
09:17 can see the deeper the greens show that it's most likely to be to the south of the UK by
09:22 the time we get to Christmas Day. But it's no guarantee. Some models do want it that
09:26 little bit further north. And so as a result, we could see some drizzly rain lingering across
09:31 southern parts for a big chunk of the day, but most likely it is going to be generally
09:35 dry. Now, that's it for Christmas Day. But let's look ahead to the last few days of 2023
09:42 and the week commencing on the 25th. Well, it looks like we're going to see a continuation
09:47 of the changeable unsettled weather that we've seen recently. So this ECM WF chart shows
09:52 pressure anomaly. So the difference in pressure compared to average and the greeny blue showing
09:57 that we're more likely to see lower pressure than average, particularly towards the northeast
10:01 of the UK. Low pressure means it's likely to be quite unsettled at times with some further
10:05 spells of rain or showers and some windy conditions too, with something a bit higher towards the
10:11 southwest. As well as that, it's worth looking at our temperatures and these meteorogram
10:15 plots for our capital cities show a couple of interesting things. If we start off looking
10:20 at our more southern capitals, so Cardiff and London, and you can see temperatures at
10:24 the moment a little bit above average for the time of year and they stay above average
10:28 as we go through the Christmas period and beyond. Just a couple of degrees above average,
10:32 but likely to be on the milder side here. However, further north for Belfast and more
10:37 so Edinburgh, you can see, yes, it's on the milder side for the time being, but then they
10:41 drop down as we go through Christmas Day and through next week. And so we're likely to
10:46 see things turning chillier across northern parts as we go through next week. It's worth
10:51 bearing in mind that confidence isn't particularly high. Notice this forecast confidence index,
10:56 which shows how strong the confidence is compared to average. Really, it takes a plunge once
11:04 we get to the 25th. So confidence is around average as we go through the next few days,
11:09 but from Christmas Day onwards, confidence really drops. And so I think, well, what I
11:13 just went through in terms of the general trend, it looks reasonably likely, but we
11:17 really don't have any great handle of the detail and what we can expect through that
11:21 final week of 2023. That being said, I think with low pressure is generally going to be
11:27 in charge. So more unsettled, more changeable weather to come. There'll be strong winds
11:30 at times, some longer spells of rain, some showers, though perhaps not as unsettled as
11:35 it has been recently. I don't think it'll be quite as mobile a picture. And so any low
11:40 pressure systems that do come through shouldn't move through quite as quickly as they have
11:44 done through recent days, particularly Storm Pier, for example. And so the impact should
11:49 be less as well, but it is looking like it will be generally unsettled. It is going to
11:55 be mostly mild, I believe, for most of us, but not necessarily all of us. Like I showed
12:00 you, there's the chance of something a little bit colder towards the north of the UK and
12:03 so some cold air never too far away. And so slight differences could lead to some of that
12:08 colder air pushing its way a little bit further southwards. So it is worth staying up to date,
12:13 of course, and we will keep you up to date, updated, sorry, across our YouTube channel,
12:19 across our social media, across our app and our website, through the festive period and
12:23 into next year. So do make sure you stay up to date, particularly if you're taking to
12:26 the roads or travelling through the festive period. Otherwise, I'll see you soon. Bye
12:30 bye.
12:30 Bye.