2024: the fault lines that could rock US-China ties
China and the U.S. saw an easing of bilateral tensions by the end of 2023, but several fault lines that lie ahead could cause a fresh stumble for the relationship in the new year. - REUTERS
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00:00 After a year that brought panic over spy balloons, a fight over semiconductors and an intensifying
00:09 military rivalry, China and the United States are ending the year with an uneasy detente,
00:16 with both Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping looking to stop a freefall in their countries'
00:22 relations.
00:23 But 2024 could bring new turbulence.
00:26 Here are three problems that could cause a stumble in U.S.-China ties.
00:31 Taiwan votes in mid-January for its new president and legislature.
00:35 China considers Taiwan its own territory.
00:38 Taiwan officials say Beijing has been escalating military maneuvers near the island and pushing
00:44 a prickly narrative.
00:46 There have been very stern warnings from China that this is a war and peace election and
00:54 that independence for Taiwan would mean war.
00:58 Reuters correspondent Antony Slokowski has been following these events from Beijing.
01:03 Though increased warnings and military pressure during elections isn't new at all for Taiwan,
01:09 this time Beijing really dislikes the frontrunner, Democratic Progressive Party Vice President
01:14 Lai Ching-te and his running mate, Xiaobi Kim.
01:18 The commentary in China has been pretty negative about the DPP candidature.
01:24 They have been called colluding villains, I think, the sort of the ruling party ticket
01:32 and the independence dabble act.
01:35 The U.S. could be drawn in if military tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait.
01:40 And there's a precedent for that.
01:41 In 1996, the U.S. sent an aircraft carrier group to the area in response to China's military
01:47 exercises and missile tests ahead of voting.
01:52 The 2024 U.S. presidential election could be even more consequential.
01:57 Barring last-minute surprises, it will likely be a rematch between Joe Biden and former
02:01 President Donald Trump.
02:04 Reuters U.S. foreign policy editor Don Durfee explains its implications for the U.S.-China
02:09 relationship.
02:11 Trump is less of a fan of traditional American alliances, including NATO and some of the
02:17 alliances in Asia.
02:18 If a Trump administration were to mean a pullback from Asia, China would see that in its benefit.
02:23 On the other hand, Trump was very tough on China during his time.
02:26 He imposed new tariffs, there were arguments about COVID, and the Chinese leadership found
02:30 it to be a very difficult administration to work with.
02:34 So there was an argument from analysts that the Chinese might actually prefer Biden because
02:39 he's more predictable.
02:40 They feel like they have a partner they can negotiate with.
02:44 Exploitation of export controls remains a key issue in the U.S.-China tech rivalry.
02:49 And the U.S. is expected to beef up export controls designed to prevent China's military
02:55 from getting its hands on the most advanced semiconductors.
02:59 We're going to see another tightening of export controls in the coming fall in 2024.
03:04 And we've also heard from officials that the U.S. intends to enforce these rules more strictly.
03:11 Officials and companies that they might see as violating this.
03:14 While China sees this as an effort targeted at their development, it struggles to push
03:19 back since retaliating against U.S. businesses would only drive away the foreign capital
03:24 Beijing needs as its economic growth slows.
03:28 Things may look cordial between Washington and Beijing for now, but that could change
03:33 unexpectedly in the coming year, from presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States
03:39 to continued trade fights.
03:41 There are no shortage of fault lines between the world's two largest economies.
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