في 2023.. البنوك العالمية تخفض عدد موظفيها بوتيرة حادة
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00:00 This is the worst year for the banks' employees in the years of the global financial crisis.
00:07 Exemptions and the loss of thousands of jobs, as we have seen, worldwide, especially for the banking sector.
00:14 What is striking is that this is happening at a time when we have seen an increase in interest rates.
00:18 This should reflect positively on the banks because it will achieve greater profits than the borrowing processes.
00:24 The question today is why we have seen this negative environment for the banks and why this decrease in the number of jobs.
00:32 Twenty of the largest international banks have reduced the number of jobs by 62,000 in 2023.
00:39 The reason for this is not related to the increase in interest rates and their effect on the borrowing process.
00:46 When banks borrow, they benefit if the interest rates are higher because this will achieve greater profits.
00:54 But this is related to the bank's dependence on the type of deposit it is depending on.
01:00 If it was dependent on the commercial lending, there may be some benefit based on certain givings.
01:10 But the dilemma is for banks that depend on the investment bank.
01:16 Therefore, during 2023, we saw the worst year for investment banks in terms of M&A, the year of positive returns for initial investments and IPOs.
01:29 This was caused by the decline in the interest rates of investment banks, with a decrease in both M&A and IPOs.
01:38 This affected the bottom line, the profits of the banks, and the reduction of the number of jobs.
01:45 Even the type of jobs that were lost in the banks are related to these departments.
01:51 Departments that depend on initial investments or that engineer the integration and acquisition processes.
01:58 Wall Street companies were trying to protect the profits by reducing the number of jobs.
02:04 Today, the investor knows that there are certain types of banks that depend heavily on their investment banks and their operations in investment services.
02:14 While there are other banks that depend more on lending.
02:18 Therefore, he is able to distinguish the current environment and how it will affect the profits of banks based on the type of dependence and the type of jobs that depend on it.
02:28 If we look at the lowest-paid banks this year, it was UBS, with the acquisition of Credit Suisse.
02:36 Usually, when a company acquires another company or a bank, we have job cuts.
02:42 This is a given.
02:43 Because we will have a kind of synergies, a kind of creation of a single banking entity.
02:49 We always have a kind of low-paid jobs, especially if the bank that is being acquired is a bank that is basically suffering.
02:57 Wells Fargo, Citibank of America and Morgan Stanley are among the banks that were the lowest paid.
03:04 As we have mentioned, the dilemma was specifically for European banks related to UBS and the acquisition of Credit Suisse.
03:12 13,000 jobs were lost.
03:15 They announced a job cut or a big cut in costs.
03:20 All of this was expected due to the low-paid situation that UBS was dealing with in Credit Suisse.
03:30 If we look at the increase in costs and the claims related to the increase in interest rates,
03:36 investment banking businesses are suffering from the increase in interest rates.
03:40 Even the Reserve Bank is dealing with the bank's ability to benefit from the interest rate environment.
03:47 If the bank is able to take the deposits and give interest on them, let's say 5%,
03:56 but is able to withdraw these deposits, then by 5.5% it will gain these 50 points.
04:02 But when it is not able to withdraw, these deposits become costly for it.
04:09 This is the crisis that we have seen for many banks with the decline in the withdrawal processes.
04:15 The other thing is specifically related to investment banking businesses.
04:20 Because we had a decline in M&A deals and the initial deposits,
04:25 this affected the fees or what the banks get from these operations and from this kind of engineering related to these deals.
04:37 We have seen an increase in the cost of business, 15% in the last 12 months,
04:42 because we had a competition between banks to get the most efficient employees.
04:49 This is what raised the fees for this sector.
04:54 Expectations of continuing to decrease the salaries in banks until 2024,
04:59 because now the picture is not clear for investment services.
05:04 How will this sector be in 2024?
05:07 Especially because the interest in most of Europe will remain high,
05:12 even if it will decrease, but it will remain high for companies.
05:16 The other thing is the weakening of the economic situation in China
05:19 and any other sectors that are open to the Chinese economy
05:23 and how it will also be affected by the discovery and the expansion of the Chinese economy.
05:28 Therefore, the picture is not clear for 2024,
05:31 but we do not have positive expectations that banks will stop losing their jobs.
05:37 Sabiha.