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00:00 "If we look at the expectations of most investment banks, and we do the opposite,
00:13 all the expectations would have been fulfilled in 2023.
00:22 Most of the expectations for the year 2023 were wrong.
00:30 This is what we heard from the investment bank,
00:33 and of course, it was highlighted that it will be a year of recession,
00:38 a difficult year for the stocks, good for the bonds,
00:43 bad for the encrypted currencies,
00:46 which happened, of course, the opposite.
00:49 At the end of 2022, we had the economic break,
00:55 which we witnessed on the expectations of the stock markets,
01:01 a 70% probability of record falling in the United States.
01:07 In March 2023, Goldman Sachs put the probability of falling in the United States at 55% in March,
01:15 which happened in the third quarter, more than 5% growth in the American economy.
01:21 Of course, some changes in the last figures.
01:24 The expectations of the economic break were the former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers,
01:29 in April 2023, we have only been talking about the 8th month,
01:36 a 70% probability of the American economy falling in the year with the renewal of the monetary policy and the crisis of trust.
01:44 There is no doubt that there may be some crises in the trust,
01:49 especially for small companies.
01:51 We noticed this in the Russell 2000 index at the beginning of the year,
01:56 but we still witness a big loss for the consumer.
02:03 The financial situation was not as bad as expected for the American economy.
02:11 Of course, as we said, when most economists expected a fall in the economy,
02:19 the American economy grew by 5% and 4.9% in this particular reading,
02:25 which is a moderate reading for the overall local result for the third quarter.
02:31 And therefore, it was one of the best quarters we have seen in recent years.
02:37 As for the wrong expectations, the most prominent were from Morgan Stanley and Mike Wilson.
02:44 All the "fools" in the market today, when we say "fools",
02:52 we mean those who bet on the return of the market,
02:55 they believe in Mike Wilson, because he hit it several times,
02:59 but the bet during this year was also to see a return in the Assembly market,
03:04 and it was seen on the big returns of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq,
03:08 which also came from a big loss in 2022.
03:12 However, the S&P 500, and in the last day of trading,
03:17 has a record level of 24% of earnings.
03:24 The Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100 in particular, recorded more than 50% of earnings.
03:31 The Bank of America, the analysts advise us to buy the US Treasury bonds,
03:35 at the beginning of the year, with the bonds' interest rate falling,
03:40 or the bonds' interest rates rising,
03:42 which happened at the beginning of this year,
03:45 because the interest rates rose from levels of 3.7 to 3.8 in the last 110 years,
03:52 and reached more than 5%.
03:54 These were huge losses for the place to invest in, the bonds' markets,
03:59 especially the long-term bonds,
04:02 which usually reach 5% in 10 years,
04:05 before returning to 3.8%
04:10 So, the beginning of the year was very bad for the bonds' markets.
04:15 As for the Shanghai index,
04:20 we should remember that in 2022,
04:25 we witnessed the opening of the Chinese economy.
04:29 The world expected that this factor would be the main factor in reducing the inflation rates,
04:36 and that this factor would be the main factor in restoring the Chinese economy,
04:42 which suffered in 2022,
04:44 and we started to see the rise of the capital,
04:47 but what we saw was a real crisis, a financial crisis,
04:52 and the Shanghai index was one of the worst in terms of performance,
04:57 and the Chinese index, and the Hang Seng index,
05:01 and the returns were more than 13% or 14%
05:07 compared to the Hang Seng index,
05:10 and the Shanghai index was about 4% of the returns.
05:14 The market was expected to record the best performance.
05:19 So, there are still expectations that we can make mistakes,
05:25 but most of the expectations in 2023 did not reach.