#Sensex, #Nifty near day's low as #HDFCBank, #Infosys drag; all #Adani stocks rise.
Niraj Shah and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
Niraj Shah and Hersh Sayta dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:00:34 - Good afternoon, welcome.
00:00:42 You're watching India Market Close on NDTV Profit.
00:00:45 I'm Harsh Saita, with me is Neeraj Shah,
00:00:49 and we'll take you through all the way
00:00:51 through to the close of markets today.
00:00:53 Quickly looking at the Nifty,
00:00:55 you're looking at a half a percent cut again today,
00:00:58 hundred odd points lower on the Nifty,
00:01:01 and it's been a weak day of trade.
00:01:02 If we can have the graph of the Nifty
00:01:05 to just for the day, intraday,
00:01:07 and we'll know that it's been a sustained day of weakness.
00:01:11 Through the day, we've seen the Nifty continue to remain
00:01:15 on around that 21,500 odd mark.
00:01:19 Also, let's quickly have the heat map
00:01:21 to understand what stocks are gaining and losing.
00:01:25 And you can see Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports,
00:01:28 both of those are the top two gainers in trade,
00:01:31 no surprises or no question as to why.
00:01:34 And ITC is also the top contributory among the Nifty,
00:01:38 50 up one and a half percent ITC as well.
00:01:40 Among the losers, well, a slew of losers,
00:01:43 all two and a half percent lower.
00:01:44 You're looking at Wipro, Infi, Hero, LTI,
00:01:46 Mindtree, GSW Steel, and Hindalco.
00:01:49 The sense here is that largely it's been the IT pack,
00:01:52 which is in the negative,
00:01:55 and you're also seeing some bit of pressure in auto.
00:01:57 Hiromoto's numbers came out and that pressure
00:02:00 clearly playing out on Hiromoto on the stock itself.
00:02:04 Let's quickly also have a look at the advance decline ratio
00:02:07 on the NSC.
00:02:08 And, you know, we clearly are seeing a divergence here,
00:02:13 a large number of counters in the red within the Nifty 50,
00:02:16 but look at the advances and the declines ratio here
00:02:20 on the NSC.
00:02:21 You're looking at an advance decline ratio
00:02:24 supporting the advances.
00:02:26 That clearly shows that the broader markets
00:02:29 are doing better, and we'll have those broader market
00:02:32 indices up for you in just a moment.
00:02:35 There you go.
00:02:36 The Nifty mid cap up around half a percent,
00:02:38 and the Nifty small cap as well in the green
00:02:41 up around a fifth of a percent in trade.
00:02:43 That's where the divergence is really playing out,
00:02:46 and it was reflecting in the advance decline ratio as well.
00:02:50 Quickly onto sectoral indices,
00:02:52 we did speak about IT being a bit of a weak spot.
00:02:55 We also spoke about auto.
00:02:57 The numbers have been soft, and that's reflecting.
00:03:01 Nifty IT is the top loser in trade today, 2.3% lower.
00:03:05 Nifty auto also down around six tenths of a percent.
00:03:09 So you're seeing some bit of pressure on both of those.
00:03:11 Among others, Nifty Metal down 1.3,
00:03:14 and you're also seeing the Nifty PSU Bank
00:03:16 among the green, one and a half percent higher.
00:03:19 Nifty Realty continues to gain.
00:03:22 What a run that index has had over the last year or so.
00:03:26 Nifty Media also up around nine tenths of a percent,
00:03:28 and Nifty Pharma also supporting the markets today
00:03:31 up around four fifths of a percent,
00:03:33 or thereabouts, Neeraj.
00:03:34 - That, and just mark a few names
00:03:39 at the broader end of the spectrum,
00:03:41 and let's pull up the BSE 500 gainers,
00:03:44 or the BSE mid cap gainers as a pack, a pack of three,
00:03:48 and see which are the stocks that are doing well.
00:03:49 You'll obviously see a lot of these Adani Group stocks
00:03:52 being right up there on the piece as well.
00:03:56 So if we can just get those stocks up
00:03:58 without me having to speak the names,
00:04:00 the names individually that are moving around.
00:04:02 So Spark is up 13%, and there is a news development
00:04:05 out there, we'll talk about that.
00:04:06 Biocon up 6%, and this shows the kind of strength
00:04:10 that is there in some of the healthcare names.
00:04:12 The last few days, we've seen healthcare
00:04:15 having a serious run.
00:04:17 It's not just today's session.
00:04:18 Yesterday, remember, it was the healthcare stocks
00:04:20 which had the largest OI buildup as well on the liquid side,
00:04:24 and these are actually the non-OI, non-FNO names
00:04:28 essentially also are doing well for themselves
00:04:31 in the session today, so that is a set of stocks
00:04:33 that have done well.
00:04:34 Also pull up what's happening at the other non-pharma names,
00:04:38 and you will see a clear trend towards
00:04:41 some of the power and infrastructure names,
00:04:44 and PSU Banks, I must say, on a day
00:04:47 on a day on HDFC Bank's weakness,
00:04:48 the PSU Banking space has done really well.
00:04:51 So just pull up two sets of stocks
00:04:53 before I get our guests on air.
00:04:55 One, the Bank Nifty Performers,
00:05:00 and you will see HDFC Bank on one side
00:05:04 being the top contributor on the downside,
00:05:06 and then a slew of names including
00:05:08 Bank of Maharashtra and a few others,
00:05:10 Bandhan Bank up 5%, and that's the set of names
00:05:13 which have done really well, so kind of holding out
00:05:15 the Bank Nifty despite a 1.6% downtick on HDFC Bank,
00:05:20 so that is part one, and part two of the stocks,
00:05:24 if you pull up any of the Adani Group stocks,
00:05:26 so we know that Adani Ent and Adani Port
00:05:28 have done what they have done,
00:05:29 but bring up Adani New Energy, bring up Adani Green,
00:05:32 bring up Adani Total Gas, and the kind of gains
00:05:34 that have happened there are very strong.
00:05:37 So good going, let's see if there is more in store
00:05:40 for some of these.
00:05:41 Okay, let's welcome in our guests on the show
00:05:43 to try and understand what to do in a scenario like this.
00:05:46 Mr. Mehrabun Irani joins us in the studios,
00:05:49 and Kunal Shah, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst
00:05:51 at the LKP also joins us on the charts
00:05:53 and the derivative side.
00:05:54 Gentlemen, both of you, thanks so much for joining in.
00:05:58 Mr. Irani, I'll start off with you.
00:05:59 Great having you in the studios,
00:06:01 and thank you for your time.
00:06:03 Are you constructive markets?
00:06:04 Because currently there seems to be,
00:06:07 how do I say, a bit of a consolidation
00:06:09 after the one-way rally that we've seen.
00:06:11 Would you believe that there could be some dips
00:06:13 which you would use to buy into?
00:06:15 How are you playing the markets?
00:06:16 - Yes, first of all, thank you for the welcome,
00:06:18 and I think I was in your studio, lovely studio,
00:06:22 on the very first day the channel got launched again,
00:06:26 I would say, and I missed you.
00:06:28 And it's nice to be interviewed by you
00:06:30 after quite some time.
00:06:32 Yes, I am very constructive, I'm very positive.
00:06:35 I will repeat what I had mentioned,
00:06:36 that we are going to see an explosive new high in 2024.
00:06:42 Are we going to fall a little bit more?
00:06:44 We can.
00:06:45 You have to understand one thing,
00:06:47 that nobody is in the mood to sell,
00:06:49 and people are just wanting to buy.
00:06:51 And when such a scenario happens,
00:06:53 the markets go up a little bit in a hurry,
00:06:56 complacency sets in, and when the pullback happens,
00:07:00 at every fall, people start thinking
00:07:03 a little bit more and more negative,
00:07:04 and there could be a rush of profit booking,
00:07:07 God forbid that can happen,
00:07:08 which can pull the markets down further.
00:07:11 Is this pullback an opportunity to buy again?
00:07:13 Answer is 100% yes, selectively.
00:07:17 Now, why am I constructive?
00:07:18 It's because if you believe, which the market believes,
00:07:21 I also believe that if this present government
00:07:23 comes back to power, the number of seats is not important,
00:07:28 300, 320, 350, honestly, it doesn't matter.
00:07:31 If you believe the US Fed will start cutting rates
00:07:35 sometime around June or post-June,
00:07:38 and if we are lucky to have the prospects
00:07:42 of a good monsoon sometime coming in March, April, May,
00:07:45 then tell me, why should we not be seeing
00:07:47 a new explosive high coming?
00:07:50 Also, quite a few index heavyweights
00:07:52 have still not started moving up,
00:07:54 but they will add some more points to the Nifty.
00:07:57 So this pullback, even if it comes down
00:07:59 by another three to 4%, it can shave off
00:08:01 a lot of percentage points on the portfolios of investors.
00:08:05 Let's understand that Nifty has gone up
00:08:07 a particular percent, 90% of the portfolios
00:08:10 have fed much better than the frontline Nifty.
00:08:13 So on the way down, the same thing can happen.
00:08:15 You may fall more than the Nifty.
00:08:17 If you panic, God bless you,
00:08:21 but if you use it as an opportunity,
00:08:23 I think money is to be made.
00:08:25 I still believe that there is great opportunities
00:08:27 in the energy pack, in the mining pack,
00:08:30 and there could be some turnaround sectors,
00:08:32 let's say textiles.
00:08:34 So if you do a bottom-up approach in the market,
00:08:36 which has helped you outperform the frontline indices,
00:08:40 I think the same thing should continue.
00:08:42 To all those who are speaking negative now,
00:08:45 I have got one question to ask.
00:08:47 Do you believe we'll be lower than where we are today,
00:08:50 four months down the line?
00:08:51 If not, then why are you stopping people,
00:08:54 why are people stopping themselves
00:08:55 from putting in more money in the market
00:08:57 at every correction?
00:08:59 Because you don't want to see your portfolio
00:09:01 shedding off some weight, then you should not
00:09:03 be calling yourself a decent six months,
00:09:05 one year to two years investor.
00:09:07 So I think a pullback should be used as buying.
00:09:10 The dollar index, the bond yields are showing signs
00:09:12 of going up, if they go further,
00:09:13 we could have a further pullback coming.
00:09:15 I'm not saying no, but at the end of it,
00:09:17 all I know that the money which I'm going to put in now
00:09:20 is going to give me returns over the next few months.
00:09:23 That's the way I would put it.
00:09:24 - Okay, and we'll talk about some of these themes as well.
00:09:26 Textiles looks interesting,
00:09:28 there's a bit of a second coming for that, if you will.
00:09:30 Now, let me get in Kunal Shah as well.
00:09:33 Kunal, thanks for joining in the long-term view,
00:09:36 constructive, the short term, because of the pullback
00:09:39 that we've seen, particularly in banks,
00:09:40 the last three or four sessions.
00:09:42 How are you looking at either the derivative positions
00:09:46 or the charts for the benchmarks to start off with,
00:09:48 both the Nifty and the Nifty Bank?
00:09:51 - Good afternoon, Neeraj.
00:09:52 I think definitely since the last,
00:09:54 specifically if I talk about yesterday,
00:09:57 there was a clear cut breakdown on the technical charts,
00:09:59 both on the Nifty and the Bank Nifty Index.
00:10:01 What we suggested our clients as well,
00:10:03 that if Bank Nifty fails to hold that mark of 48,000,
00:10:07 we expect further decline on the downside
00:10:09 and for Nifty, 21,650 was a support,
00:10:12 which got breached in yesterday's trading session.
00:10:14 So I think this selling pressure will continue
00:10:17 for the next upcoming days as well.
00:10:19 We have expected some profit booking
00:10:20 coming from current levels.
00:10:22 So looking at the supports which are getting breached,
00:10:24 we expect Nifty to go toward the levels of 21,400, 300
00:10:28 on an immediate basis.
00:10:30 And for Bank Nifty, towards 47,000 on an immediate basis.
00:10:33 If you look at today's trading session specifically,
00:10:36 as you pointed out, HDFC Banks is the major contributor
00:10:40 for this fall, but I think going forward,
00:10:42 you will see participation coming
00:10:43 from the other banks as well.
00:10:44 So even both Nifty and Bank Nifty
00:10:46 on a short-term perspective are looking bearish,
00:10:49 or you can see some declines here.
00:10:51 But if you look at a longer term picture,
00:10:53 still the trend is very weak,
00:10:55 still the trend is very strong.
00:10:57 I expect that this correction,
00:10:59 what will be coming in the market
00:11:00 would be a good opportunity to add on to,
00:11:03 again, long positions.
00:11:05 My long-term targets, again, for the Bank Nifty
00:11:07 continues to be 50,000 plus, and for Nifty, 22,000 plus.
00:11:11 So I think it's a mild correction
00:11:12 for a short-term perspective, can only book some profits,
00:11:15 but again, at lower levels,
00:11:16 you will get good buying opportunities.
00:11:19 - Right, thanks for that, Kunal.
00:11:20 I quickly want to mark out news on Bajaj Auto,
00:11:24 which has just come through.
00:11:26 There's news that they will be considering buyback
00:11:29 on the 8th of January,
00:11:31 and you can see the spike on the stock on the back of that,
00:11:34 2.5% higher now, Bajaj Auto,
00:11:37 which was trading largely in the red through the day.
00:11:40 But quickly, back to you, Kunal.
00:11:42 Want to understand your overall view of the market
00:11:46 is constructive and positive, as is Mr. Irani's.
00:11:51 So talk to us about your picks in this market.
00:11:54 What are you looking at?
00:11:56 - So I think in the last one or two trading sessions,
00:11:58 what we have seen is healthcare as a space
00:12:00 has done extremely well,
00:12:02 and we remain bullish on the sector as well.
00:12:04 Out of that, the stock, which looks very attractive to me
00:12:07 at the current levels, for a short-term gain perspective,
00:12:09 as well as Apollo Hospital.
00:12:11 Now, on the technical chart,
00:12:12 the stock has given us a good breakout as well
00:12:15 on the lower time frame,
00:12:17 plus on the higher time frame,
00:12:18 it is trading in a higher, higher,
00:12:19 higher-low formations as well.
00:12:21 The stock is almost near its 52-week high.
00:12:24 We expect this to be taken out decisively.
00:12:26 So I'm expecting the stock to go
00:12:28 to 6,000-plus levels in the very short term.
00:12:31 So one can initiate long positions at the current levels.
00:12:34 5,650 is a very good support,
00:12:36 which should act as a stop-loss on the downside.
00:12:39 5,950 to 6,050 is what I'm looking for
00:12:41 at Apollo Hospital in the very near term.
00:12:43 So I think that is one space
00:12:45 which you should be very active on.
00:12:47 Second stock, which is looking very good to me,
00:12:49 is from the construction space.
00:12:51 Now, we have seen construction as a space
00:12:54 doing very well in the last couple of quarters as well.
00:12:57 And going forward, we expect this momentum to continue.
00:13:00 So out of that, my top pick would be NCC.
00:13:03 NCC, after a good run-up,
00:13:04 has been in a sideways consolidation phase,
00:13:07 but we are seeing a quality buying happening
00:13:09 at the lower levels on the technical charts.
00:13:11 The stock is taking support near its 50 EMA
00:13:14 and its 100 EMA,
00:13:16 which is a crucial zone for the stock.
00:13:18 170 is somewhere where the stock is currently trading.
00:13:20 So even current levels is very good
00:13:22 to initiate long positions.
00:13:24 160 has now been a very strong support,
00:13:26 which should act as a stop-loss.
00:13:27 And on the higher end, on an immediate basis,
00:13:29 185 to 192 is the target,
00:13:32 which I'm looking on the upside.
00:13:34 - Right, thank you for that.
00:13:36 Let's quickly move on.
00:13:38 Lots of stocks buzzing in trade today.
00:13:40 Himansh joins in with a list of the volume buzzers.
00:13:44 Himansh, take it away.
00:13:45 - Thanks.
00:13:47 So volume buzzers today across the broader markets,
00:13:49 we are seeing strong volumes in select few stocks
00:13:52 with the likes of FDC that's running up on 20 times
00:13:57 its 30-day average volumes.
00:13:59 You have Unicam Labs, Sun Pharma,
00:14:02 a lot of names from the Pharma pack really today,
00:14:04 making it to the top on the back of volumes.
00:14:08 Well, we'll start off first with the Alok Industries, though.
00:14:11 The shares have rallied nearly 12% today
00:14:15 to touch the 52-week high.
00:14:17 They extend their stellar rally
00:14:20 that they've been seeing this week
00:14:21 ever since you are seeing that Reliance
00:14:23 has subscribed to their preferential issue
00:14:26 and invested about 3,300 odd crores through that.
00:14:31 The preferential shares were issued at a dividend rate
00:14:33 of 9% on a private placement basis.
00:14:36 Then we have the likes of Sun Pharmaceuticals
00:14:38 that are trading higher after acquiring 100% stake
00:14:41 in Israel's Libra merger to facilitate consolidation
00:14:45 of their Israel business.
00:14:47 Web of Global shares are also up
00:14:49 almost the highest levels in 12 weeks that we have seen.
00:14:52 Action Construction Equipment shares are trading higher.
00:14:54 Now this comes on the back of promoters
00:14:57 picking up additional stake.
00:14:59 They picked up 4,262 shares on December 29
00:15:03 and getting the total up to about 24,301 shares.
00:15:08 This was done over a period of two days.
00:15:10 Then lastly, you have the likes of Sequence Scientific
00:15:15 as well that are up 4.98 times their 30 day average volumes
00:15:20 and have sold nearly 6% today.
00:15:23 - Okay, well thanks a lot for that.
00:15:25 Two quick questions actually before we take that break
00:15:27 because Bajaj Auto is now 3.5% higher.
00:15:30 And if you look at Himansh's first plate
00:15:32 that was completely around Pharmaceuticals.
00:15:36 So actually first a very quick 30 second technical view,
00:15:39 Kunal, on Bajaj Auto.
00:15:40 There is a spike there.
00:15:42 Would you buy into this spike?
00:15:44 - Yeah, I think definitely.
00:15:45 They're looking at a kind of strong uptrend.
00:15:47 It is a fresh breakout is clearly visible on the charts.
00:15:50 So you should definitely buy at the current levels.
00:15:52 Our immediate target for the stock would be 7,200
00:15:56 where it faces a near term hurdle as well.
00:15:58 So 7,200 is what something I'm looking
00:16:00 at a very short term perspective.
00:16:02 - And the first plate from Himansh's volume buzzers piece
00:16:07 was entirely around Pharmaceuticals.
00:16:09 Mr. Irani, we'll talk in detail on the other side.
00:16:11 We need to slip into a quick break.
00:16:13 But just a quick thought, are you constructive healthcare?
00:16:16 - I've been negative on this space
00:16:18 for the last four or five years and I have gone right.
00:16:20 But recently I just mentioned
00:16:22 that there's nothing to lose now
00:16:24 because the prices have come to levels
00:16:26 where the downside was limited.
00:16:28 And as far as I know with my contacts in the pharma industry
00:16:31 that the worst certainty is over.
00:16:33 So while there are no positive signs,
00:16:35 no positive triggers as such, as I mentioned earlier,
00:16:38 stock prices at the levels at which they are
00:16:40 with not much of downside and everybody talking
00:16:42 about the pullback coming in the market.
00:16:44 This sector suddenly has come into favor.
00:16:46 And when they go up, volumes pick up,
00:16:48 people want to buy it more.
00:16:49 So there could be some more upside left.
00:16:51 I am very constructive on certain names in this sector
00:16:53 with clear disclosures.
00:16:54 I like names like J.B. Chemicals,
00:16:56 I like names like Lincoln Pharma,
00:16:58 and I like a name like an FTC.
00:17:00 All three, I'm personally owning it
00:17:01 in the portfolio, clear disclosure.
00:17:03 - We'll talk about FTC by the way
00:17:04 on the other side of this break,
00:17:05 but we need to slip into one.
00:17:06 Stick with us, we'll delve deeper
00:17:08 into today's market action.
00:17:09 Talk about the big news story,
00:17:10 which is the Supreme Court verdict
00:17:13 on SEBI and Adani Group, whichever way you want to put it,
00:17:16 and the stocks and the way they have reacted.
00:17:18 We'll talk about that on the other side.
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00:19:59 - Back with the India market close
00:20:07 right here on NDTV Profit.
00:20:08 Now the big news of the day, of course,
00:20:10 is also what's happened to,
00:20:12 this morning in the Supreme Court verdict
00:20:16 and the way some of the Adani Group stocks,
00:20:18 actually they did much better ahead of the verdict.
00:20:21 Since then, some of them have cooled off
00:20:22 a little bit as well,
00:20:23 but look outside the nifty universe
00:20:27 of Adani Ports and Adani Enterprises
00:20:29 and the others, Adani Green is still up about 6%.
00:20:32 There is strength in Adani New Energy,
00:20:34 there is strength in Adani Total Gas,
00:20:36 some very strong show.
00:20:37 Now, Mehrabuni Rani, you've tracked this group for long now.
00:20:42 What do you make of what happens
00:20:46 to some of these businesses?
00:20:49 Because now the one overhang,
00:20:51 and a few people said it was not even an overhang
00:20:53 in the last three months, but be that as it may,
00:20:55 the one news flow, which probably could have,
00:20:59 people could have thought,
00:21:00 "Oh, could this be a speed breaker?
00:21:01 "It's out of the way."
00:21:03 Is it, so therefore it's back to business.
00:21:05 Does the business prompt you to go out
00:21:07 and invest into any of the names?
00:21:10 - I have been very positive on Adani Enterprises
00:21:13 and Adani Ports.
00:21:14 Now coming to the other businesses,
00:21:16 which includes power.
00:21:18 Now if you ask me to single out one sector
00:21:21 where I'm very positive, I would say it's the energy pack,
00:21:23 and Adani Power definitely belongs to that.
00:21:25 Adani Transmission belongs to that.
00:21:28 But in terms of the profit and loss account,
00:21:30 outside Adani Enterprise, and especially Adani Ports,
00:21:33 there's nothing much to discuss right now.
00:21:35 But this is one group of companies
00:21:38 where I know wealth is going to be created
00:21:41 for the shareholders,
00:21:41 and wealth is going to be created for the nation also.
00:21:45 There are a lot of things happening.
00:21:47 And if you believe these things will happen,
00:21:49 you should be a buyer in the stock.
00:21:51 That's it.
00:21:52 If you want to single out anything
00:21:54 and you want to feel very comfortable,
00:21:55 profit and loss account balance sheet wise,
00:21:57 it will be Adani Ports.
00:21:59 If you believe Adani Enterprises,
00:22:01 which has rewarded shareholders handsomely
00:22:03 in the terms of the number of companies
00:22:05 it got demerged into,
00:22:06 and some more demerges will happen
00:22:08 in the next two, three years,
00:22:09 go and buy Adani Enterprises.
00:22:11 And if you are more enterprising
00:22:12 and believe that the green energy story is here to stay
00:22:14 and it'll keep on growing,
00:22:15 you go and buy Adani Green Energy.
00:22:17 But certainly this group is one group
00:22:19 where people should be looking at it positively
00:22:22 and believe that they will help us also feel proud
00:22:26 over the next five, six years as Indians.
00:22:29 Because the work which is happening
00:22:30 in quite a few companies
00:22:31 will only make people feel nice about this country.
00:22:35 And that will be creating wealth for the nation.
00:22:37 And I'm sure shareholders also will do well.
00:22:39 So I'm very constructive on the group.
00:22:41 Financially or financial statements wise,
00:22:44 Adani Ports is singled out.
00:22:46 Believing there's some demerges that are happening,
00:22:47 I'll go with Adani Enterprises.
00:22:49 And something, if you want to buy a sector
00:22:51 which is going to remain hot for some more time to come,
00:22:53 go and buy into an Adani Power or an Adani Green.
00:22:56 - Right.
00:22:59 So those are considerably important views coming in
00:23:04 with regard to the Adani pack.
00:23:06 But let's go back to Bajaj Auto
00:23:07 because that stock is up 5% as we speak.
00:23:10 It's breached the 7,000 rupee mark now.
00:23:14 And it's also hit its 52 week high.
00:23:17 Let me quickly go to Agam.
00:23:21 He's here with us with all of the details
00:23:23 with regard to the buyback consideration,
00:23:25 which is gonna be considered on the 8th of January.
00:23:28 Agam, talk to us about everything that's been disclosed.
00:23:31 - Right, so Bajaj Auto is surging ahead in trade
00:23:35 even as we get a clarification on the exchanges
00:23:39 suggesting that the board will be taking up a buyback
00:23:42 on the 8th of January.
00:23:43 This certainly has given the impetus
00:23:46 the stock that is needed.
00:23:49 From what we understand is that last year,
00:23:51 around the same time, that was around 2022,
00:23:54 well, we did see the buyback of around 2,500 crores.
00:23:58 The question is that what could the quantum of the buyback
00:24:01 be now at this point?
00:24:03 And if you consider the net worth of the company,
00:24:06 that is the shareholder's equity,
00:24:08 that comes in at around 29,300 odd crores.
00:24:11 This is as per the balance sheet
00:24:12 which was given out to us
00:24:14 at the end of the first six months of this financial year.
00:24:19 If you consider 10%, that's the lowest that can be,
00:24:22 would that be somewhere around 2,900 crores
00:24:24 and could go all the way up to 25% of that net worth,
00:24:28 which would come to around 7,300 crores.
00:24:31 Now, it's very unlikely that the buyback
00:24:33 would be as high as 7,300 crores.
00:24:36 However, if they were to keep with
00:24:39 what they have done in the past,
00:24:40 the buyback could be somewhere around the 2,900 crore mark.
00:24:44 And that perhaps is also one of the reasons
00:24:46 why we're seeing that up move
00:24:48 as far as Bajaj Auto is concerned.
00:24:49 - Right, let me also take in Mr. Irani's views
00:24:55 on the likes of Bajaj Auto.
00:24:58 The Bajaj Group, sir, as a whole,
00:25:00 has been doing fairly well.
00:25:02 Any views specifically on Bajaj Auto,
00:25:08 which you may have, especially given
00:25:10 this buyback announcement as well?
00:25:11 - I've gone on record to state this a couple of months ago
00:25:15 on some other channel that this is a 10,000 rupee stock,
00:25:17 according to me, over the next couple of years.
00:25:19 - Sure.
00:25:20 - Every step that the company has taken,
00:25:21 the management has taken the last one,
00:25:22 one and a half year is going to make you see
00:25:24 what is going to happen.
00:25:25 I think there's a gradual recovery in exports.
00:25:28 They've expanded the network as far as premium bikes goes.
00:25:31 And the domestic two-wheeler segment also
00:25:33 is going to be driven largely by bikes above 125cc.
00:25:38 So there could be stocks like a TVS,
00:25:41 or there could be a stock like a Hiromoto,
00:25:43 which may look relatively cheaper now.
00:25:45 But the point is, the steps taken by the management
00:25:48 makes me supremely confident,
00:25:50 which may sound a little exaggerated to you,
00:25:52 but I've been stating this,
00:25:54 and I'm going to continue stating this,
00:25:55 that this is a five-figure stock,
00:25:57 according to me, over the next couple of years.
00:26:00 - And that's because of an earnings uptick
00:26:03 that will come in? - Yes.
00:26:03 - Because I heard you say steps.
00:26:04 - Yes.
00:26:05 The measures which the company has taken
00:26:07 ultimately translate into improved earnings
00:26:10 for the going ahead.
00:26:11 - Okay, okay.
00:26:12 Well, just before we take that break,
00:26:15 Kunal, it was a great trading call as well.
00:26:17 So Mehrabuni and I believe this is a long,
00:26:20 it took a couple of years,
00:26:21 or maybe less than that, a five-figure stock.
00:26:24 You gave a call to buy this.
00:26:26 It's now 7,050.
00:26:28 You would stay long on this one?
00:26:30 - Yes, definitely.
00:26:32 Continue to be on the long side.
00:26:33 As I said, 7,200 is somewhat what I'm expecting
00:26:36 in the very short term.
00:26:37 So if you're holding on to the long positions,
00:26:39 continue with the stop loss of 6,950.
00:26:42 - You know, it's interesting.
00:26:43 I mean, in the midst of a news blow to buy index stock
00:26:46 3% higher, and then still see the gains.
00:26:50 Pretty solid call given on the charts
00:26:51 and the derivative side as well.
00:26:53 Take a break.
00:26:54 More focus on derivatives
00:26:55 because Agamwali spoke about Bajaj Auto.
00:26:57 We'll throw some light on what the derivative space is doing
00:27:00 on the other side of this very quick break.
00:27:02 Stay tuned to NDTV Profit.
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00:29:46 - Right, welcome back.
00:29:51 You're watching India Market Close on NDTV Profit.
00:29:53 Thanks for staying tuned.
00:29:55 We'll continue a bit with the Bajaj story.
00:29:57 I've just pulled out the cash balances
00:30:00 for Bajaj on a console basis, Bajaj Auto.
00:30:03 I apologize for mentioning the entity name.
00:30:07 The total is 1300 crore odd of cash balances
00:30:11 that it had at the end of H1 FY24.
00:30:16 So that will probably indicate a direction
00:30:19 in which the possible buyback will happen.
00:30:23 But I also want to quickly flag off two more stocks
00:30:26 from the Bajaj group.
00:30:27 One is Bajaj Holding, which is also a buzz.
00:30:31 It's up nearly four and a half plus percent.
00:30:33 On the back of, of course, the same news.
00:30:35 It owns Bajaj Auto.
00:30:37 It owns a stake in it.
00:30:38 And I also want Marashtra Scooters,
00:30:41 if we can pull up the chart for that.
00:30:44 You're seeing a spike on Bajaj Holding
00:30:46 as well as Marashtra Scooters now.
00:30:49 Three and a half percent higher in trade today.
00:30:51 Both of those are holding companies of Bajaj Auto,
00:30:54 and both of those are also seeing a spike.
00:30:57 So that's a quick plus.
00:30:58 But let me quickly take it back to Kunal.
00:31:03 Kunal, you know, we missed asking you your views
00:31:07 with regard to the Adani names.
00:31:09 Could you please give us your views?
00:31:12 Yeah, I think overall, if I look at the pack,
00:31:14 one data I would like to highlight over here,
00:31:16 that post that Hindenburg case,
00:31:18 you will see apart from Adani Port and Adani Power,
00:31:23 the rest of the stocks are still trading below that high.
00:31:26 So I think there's a lot of strength
00:31:27 which is clear-cut visible in Adani Port.
00:31:30 This is one stock which I'm extremely bullish on.
00:31:33 I think whatever dip you get into the stock,
00:31:36 that should be a buy opportunity.
00:31:37 Two things.
00:31:38 First, it has surpassed the, on a technical chart,
00:31:40 it has surpassed the case high as well.
00:31:43 Plus it has surpassed its all-time high as well.
00:31:45 So clear-cut is showing a lot of strength as well.
00:31:48 So 1100 somewhere it is trading.
00:31:50 Even if you get any dip into the stock,
00:31:52 try to accumulate it.
00:31:54 970 is now a very strong base for the stock.
00:31:57 On a positional basis,
00:31:58 I'm looking for targets somewhere around 1400 to 1500,
00:32:02 which is from the current market price,
00:32:03 at least 30-35% upside.
00:32:05 But if anybody wants to have a shorter-term target,
00:32:09 you can at least look for a target
00:32:11 for conservative of 1250 to 1300 on the upside.
00:32:15 Right.
00:32:15 Again, positive on those Adani counters,
00:32:18 it seems, even from a technical standpoint.
00:32:20 But quickly, I have Agam standing by,
00:32:23 who's going to break down the F&O Qs for us.
00:32:25 Agam, talk to us about what the F&O Qs are hinting at.
00:32:29 Well, it's been a very volatile day of trade
00:32:31 and actually on unexpected lines perhaps
00:32:34 because earlier on in the day,
00:32:35 we saw and we started the markets with a lot of weakness.
00:32:39 Eventually, we had the verdict from the Supreme Court
00:32:42 around the Adani-Hindenburg case.
00:32:43 And from there on,
00:32:44 we in fact did see a little bit of an improvement in markets as well.
00:32:48 And since then, we've seen the markets gyrate wildly,
00:32:51 even though it is in a relatively narrower range.
00:32:54 On the other hand, when it comes to the Nifty,
00:32:57 we are looking at some amount of weakness,
00:32:59 at least at the moment,
00:33:00 but not too much to speak for
00:33:02 when it comes to increase in open interest.
00:33:04 Sure, there is a little bit of positions building up,
00:33:07 but these are not necessarily towards shorts,
00:33:09 at least at the moment.
00:33:11 Talk about the Bank Nifty
00:33:12 and that will perhaps be in focus today
00:33:14 because of the weekly options expiry.
00:33:17 The futures here are seeing a lot of unwinding.
00:33:20 In fact, the open interest is declining by as much as 8%.
00:33:23 So we are seeing a lot of positions being built earlier,
00:33:27 coming through and being squared off,
00:33:29 even as the underlying remains largely flattish marginally in the red.
00:33:34 Let's talk about the option space then
00:33:35 and see where in fact we are seeing a little more traction
00:33:39 when it comes to change in open interest.
00:33:41 And for the moment,
00:33:43 we are looking at a lot more writing around 21,300, 21,400 puts.
00:33:47 And on the higher end,
00:33:48 looking at a little more writing around the 21,700 and 21,800 calls.
00:33:53 It's a roughly 400 point range
00:33:57 that we're working with when it comes to
00:33:58 tomorrow's Nifty weekly options expiry.
00:34:02 For now, keeping an eye on largely a 300 point range
00:34:05 based on maximum open interest,
00:34:08 which stands at 21,500 put and the 21,800 call.
00:34:13 Speaking of the Bank Nifty as well,
00:34:16 we are most likely to see the Bank Nifty expire
00:34:20 somewhere around 47,700, 47,800.
00:34:24 That's something that we're going to keep an eye on as well.
00:34:27 Let's bring up the stocks then and take a look at where
00:34:30 we have in fact seen a lot more traction.
00:34:32 Longs building up in Alchem Laboratories,
00:34:34 Bajaj Auto of course, and Crompton Greaves.
00:34:37 And in terms of shorts building up,
00:34:39 we have some weakness in Nalco and Coforge.
00:34:41 And in terms of stocks,
00:34:42 which are seeing unwinding in open interest
00:34:45 when it comes to squaring off positions,
00:34:47 Delta Corp, SAIL looking at longs and winding
00:34:49 along with the Gold Rush properties,
00:34:51 Coromandel and IEX on the other hand,
00:34:53 looking at about a short covering.
00:34:55 But the last 20 odd minutes,
00:34:57 the focus will remain on the Bank Nifty
00:35:00 considering it is the weekly options expiry today.
00:35:03 Right. Focus on the Bank Nifty.
00:35:06 Thanks for that roundup, Agam.
00:35:08 But let's switch it to IT actually.
00:35:11 It's the top sectoral laggard today.
00:35:13 My colleague Tushar Deep is here to highlight the factors
00:35:17 that are dragging the index lower.
00:35:18 Over to you Tushar.
00:35:20 Thank you so much, Harsh.
00:35:21 As you pointed out, it is the top laggard today as well.
00:35:23 It had closed in the red yesterday as well.
00:35:25 All the 10 constituents of the index are in the red.
00:35:30 This is important how the Nifty IT pack up performs is important
00:35:33 because it has the second highest weightage in Nifty 50
00:35:36 after the financial stocks that are there.
00:35:39 So essentially what we are seeing right now is a correction
00:35:43 in IT stocks after the run-up that we saw in December
00:35:46 following a dovish tone set by Fed.
00:35:49 This correction is coming just a week before the Q3 earnings.
00:35:53 Where we expect the IT companies,
00:35:55 India's top tier IT companies to perform in a way similar
00:36:00 to how they have performed in the last one year or so.
00:36:03 Essentially more of the same pain
00:36:05 that we have seen over the last four quarters.
00:36:07 So TCS will kick off its earnings on 11th January.
00:36:11 Citi has raised the target price of top six IT firms.
00:36:15 But it's still, the current market price is still higher.
00:36:17 So essentially that's why you are seeing the closing.
00:36:19 BNP Paribas, what we have seen according to its report today,
00:36:23 sees the tier one IT pack growing at -2 to 3.6% in Q3.
00:36:28 The mid to small IT firms at about 0.5 to 2.7% in Q3.
00:36:33 So essentially another muted quarter for this, for IT firms.
00:36:37 Now what is the problem that's happening is
00:36:39 that revenue is still not coming in from the deals.
00:36:43 Deal making is still slow.
00:36:44 Deal pipelines are still elongated.
00:36:46 Discretionary deals are not happening.
00:36:48 Essentially no meaningful conversion into revenue.
00:36:51 That will also weigh on the margins,
00:36:53 on the profitability as well.
00:36:55 Because companies have largely exhausted their margin levers
00:36:58 to shore up profitability.
00:37:00 Two things out of the way.
00:37:02 We also see the fact that attrition has come down,
00:37:04 but headcount has also declined.
00:37:06 So we know that it's again,
00:37:08 it's going to be a weak quarter for the IT pack.
00:37:11 Harsh.
00:37:12 Right. Thanks so much for that Tushar.
00:37:14 Really good roundup.
00:37:15 But let's also try and understand this more
00:37:19 from a bottom-up perspective from Mr. Irani.
00:37:22 So sir, you know,
00:37:24 the larger IT pack does not seem to be clocking much growth,
00:37:28 but rates are expected to come off,
00:37:31 which should aid growth there.
00:37:33 The smaller IT pack growing decently well,
00:37:36 but valuations seem a bit stretched.
00:37:40 Your views, where do you see a pocket of value here?
00:37:43 Extremely negative for the last 18 months,
00:37:45 but somewhere I stated, and I still say the same thing,
00:37:49 that a real opportune time for buying IT will come very soon.
00:37:54 Somewhere I felt a month ago that I've gone wrong
00:37:57 because IT stocks started going up,
00:37:59 especially the mid-cap IT.
00:38:01 I think there's a lot of expectations built in around AI.
00:38:06 Now, certain companies will certainly do well,
00:38:08 some of them may not do well.
00:38:10 Discretionary spending across has still not gone up.
00:38:15 So there are no constructive reasons
00:38:17 to be positive on IT as a pack.
00:38:20 It is, again, the frontline IT stocks like you mentioned,
00:38:23 relatively look more attractive than the mid-cap IT.
00:38:25 Yes, it's true.
00:38:26 I would say the downside over here is limited.
00:38:29 Are there reasons enough to go and buy in a hurry?
00:38:31 My answer would be no.
00:38:32 But from the stock price angle,
00:38:34 with not too much of downside let,
00:38:35 and we are a little bit uneasy on the overall market,
00:38:38 uncertain, pullback can continue for some more time to come.
00:38:41 This, like a pharma, could be a sector
00:38:44 where you can start going
00:38:45 and doing some bottom fishing over there
00:38:48 and start buying into them from a little longer-term angle.
00:38:51 But positive triggers as such,
00:38:53 I still don't see it as of now.
00:38:56 Okay.
00:38:56 But the other aspect is the other sector really,
00:39:00 which is, could a given way, in addition to IT, is metals.
00:39:04 When we are looking at the market,
00:39:06 with the show open,
00:39:08 almost all the metal names were silking in trade.
00:39:10 Now, the last few days, the lower yields,
00:39:13 the lower dollar index have all aided the metal rally.
00:39:16 Today, they've come crashing down.
00:39:18 You have a strong view on the impact of China on these spaces as well.
00:39:22 What do you think?
00:39:23 Should one buy into a JSW, JSPL, etc., in the weakness, or stay away?
00:39:27 I would like to stay away.
00:39:28 I still believe that this pullback is going to give a lot of opportunity
00:39:32 in names, across sectors, which are certainly going to do well.
00:39:36 Now, the point is market is smarter than all of us.
00:39:39 So quite a few of the sectors, be it industrials,
00:39:41 be it public sector banks,
00:39:43 be it hotels,
00:39:44 I think those stocks have really gone up.
00:39:45 And if they have a pullback,
00:39:47 I think you will find more opportunity over there,
00:39:49 rather than trying to play the game of metals,
00:39:53 where you rightly mentioned,
00:39:54 it goes up for a few days and suddenly falls.
00:39:57 So there are things which you cannot predict right now.
00:40:00 And you don't have any reasons to be extremely positive about them.
00:40:04 Why stick your neck out and go and buy into them?
00:40:06 So there could be an opportunity.
00:40:08 I'm not saying no.
00:40:09 But I have no reasons to fundamentally mention
00:40:12 that metal is a space which you just go and buy into right now.
00:40:15 Longer term opportunities,
00:40:16 no, I won't like to say those type of things.
00:40:18 So I would say wait for opportunities in sectors,
00:40:21 like say railways, like say hotels,
00:40:23 like say industrials, public sector banks,
00:40:25 where I think there are still some opportunities in the market
00:40:29 to go and buy and make some money,
00:40:31 because these sectors are sectors which are going to be really in good shape.
00:40:34 Metal, suddenly there is a turnaround.
00:40:36 China, Rekha was a little bit, prices go up.
00:40:38 They could give you a great bounce, good money.
00:40:41 I'm not saying no, but I'm not very sure about it.
00:40:43 Okay. Do you track Shyam Metallics?
00:40:45 No, you don't.
00:40:46 Okay. Okay.
00:40:48 We'll talk to Harsh about Shyam.
00:40:49 But before that Kunal, a word on the weakness in metals today.
00:40:53 And is that, is there a trade out there on the short side?
00:40:58 Yeah, I think I definitely need it.
00:41:00 If we talk about metals as a space,
00:41:01 on the longer term chart perspective,
00:41:03 it still looks bullish.
00:41:05 Yes, there has been some more profit-looking or selling pressure,
00:41:08 which is visible from the higher levels.
00:41:11 But for me, yes, for a short-term perspective,
00:41:13 if I look at the metal index,
00:41:15 currently trading somewhere around 7,880 levels or so.
00:41:21 We can expect some declines to a 7,700 levels.
00:41:24 So yes, names such as Hendalco or a SAIL or a National Aluminium,
00:41:29 which has rallied quite a lot in the last one month or so.
00:41:33 We can see some profit-looking coming in over there.
00:41:36 So that is where they will be under pressure for a short-term perspective.
00:41:39 That is for the next two to three days.
00:41:41 Then again, we'll see the trend resuming on the upside.
00:41:45 Right. Thanks for that, Kunal.
00:41:47 You know, Neeraj did mention Shyam Metallics and,
00:41:51 you know, we've seen the stock suddenly,
00:41:54 if we can have the graph there for context,
00:41:57 you know, we've seen a bit of a spike on the stock right at the fag end of trade today,
00:42:02 which is the last 10 to 15 minutes.
00:42:04 Lastly, on the back of QIP, which seems to have closed out now,
00:42:07 3,500 crore raised, and, you know,
00:42:12 there is around 5,500 crore worth of CAPEX,
00:42:15 which the company is expected to do over the next two to three years.
00:42:20 It's largely a thousand odd crore profit-making company
00:42:24 and with around 600 crore of depreciation,
00:42:27 if just add both of those,
00:42:30 largely the CAPEX gets funded through profit is our understanding.
00:42:34 And, you know, overall, when you're looking at the way the top line is expected to move,
00:42:39 it's a 17,000 crore market cap company.
00:42:42 Top line is expected to move from around 12,500 odd thousand crore
00:42:45 and expected to double up over the next three years,
00:42:48 all the way through FY26.
00:42:50 So maybe two years and a quarter.
00:42:53 And so, therefore, there's plenty of tailwind with regard to both growth into new businesses.
00:43:00 They're also doing some backward integration
00:43:02 and the margins are expected to get better as well.
00:43:05 This is, of course, all company guidance, which we pulled out.
00:43:09 And, therefore, this looks quite a differentiated play
00:43:14 when you're looking at it overall within the metals pack.
00:43:18 And that's what Neeraj was essentially mentioning.
00:43:21 Interesting. Okay. So thanks for the analysis.
00:43:24 I know Mehboob Nirani doesn't track SIAM,
00:43:26 but Kunal, SIAM Metallics or Godavari Power and Ispat,
00:43:30 essentially this pellet speciality steel space,
00:43:33 which is not quite connected to what's happening in metals at large.
00:43:36 Do any of them are showing interesting charts?
00:43:40 So I think specifically if I talk about SIAM Metallics,
00:43:43 the run-up has been very sharp. The breakout was already confirmed in the stock,
00:43:48 I think two months back, where around the levels of 480-500.
00:43:52 From there onwards, the stock has been a non-stop buy toward that 670 mark.
00:43:57 Still any upside is left from the current levels? The answer to this is yes.
00:44:01 Looking at the technical charts, both that breakout of 500 levels,
00:44:07 I'm expecting this target to come around 750 or so.
00:44:10 So still stock is trading around 674.
00:44:12 So you have a decent upside of 10% even from the current levels as well.
00:44:16 So I think one should definitely keep it on a buy radar at the current levels as well.
00:44:20 The base of the support for the stock on the downside is at 620.
00:44:24 So as long as 620-630 is not taken out,
00:44:27 we expect the momentum to continue toward that 740-750 mark level on the upside.
00:44:33 Okay. Well, so that's as far as SIAM goes, still some upside left.
00:44:37 Pandit, if Godari Par and Ispat have also moved up,
00:44:40 just pull that stock up very briefly and see what's happening there.
00:44:43 Not quite, but Godari Par and Ispat, that is a fabulous run, you know.
00:44:46 Both these stocks, if you can pull up the one-year chart of both of these concurrently,
00:44:52 you will see that at some point of time, they were kind of close by
00:44:55 and then Godari Par and Ispat just took off.
00:44:58 SIAM hasn't had that kind of a luck,
00:45:00 maybe because also of this promoter stake sale overhang.
00:45:03 Now that that is out of the way, never know what could happen next.
00:45:06 But we know what is happening with some of the stocks, particularly FDC,
00:45:10 which has done well today.
00:45:12 And Mehraboon Irani mentioned that he likes FDC fundamentally.
00:45:17 I would love to understand what is the rationale of an investment in FDC.
00:45:25 I would say that I've been following this company for quite some time
00:45:28 and I read the management as very straight, the Chanda workers.
00:45:35 Apart from direct pharma, it's also in consumer health care in its own way.
00:45:41 It has got products which enjoy a decent market share.
00:45:46 The company has made two buybacks, one as recent as a few months ago
00:45:49 at a price of 500 rupees when the price quoting was around 350 in the market.
00:45:55 This is a company which has given back to the shareholders through two buybacks, number one.
00:46:00 Number two, valuation-wise, if you look at the entire pharma pack,
00:46:02 this is a company which has kept on growing, mind you.
00:46:05 If you look at the valuations, 20, 22 times forward earnings is certainly not expensive,
00:46:12 especially knowing that the buybacks have taken place at at least 20, 25% above the market price,
00:46:19 not once but twice in the last three or four years.
00:46:21 So you feel mentally more comfortable.
00:46:23 And if you want an exposure to pharma, this is one stock you have to be with.
00:46:27 That's the way I thought. So far I've gone right.
00:46:29 And I feel that this company will continue to deliver.
00:46:33 So very comfortable holding it.
00:46:34 I'm aware of the fact that the stock has gone up a little bit too sharply in the last couple of sessions.
00:46:39 So is it a time to book profit? I would say certainly not.
00:46:42 If you believe in being in companies and sectors which have not seen the best of days so far,
00:46:47 this is a name where I'm comfortable holding onto it.
00:46:52 I presume you're also constructive on energy.
00:46:55 Now tell us why and tell us what within energy and why is that what?
00:47:01 Clear disclosure, I've got 15% of my portfolio in energy stocks right now.
00:47:05 And what happened to defense maybe five years ago,
00:47:09 people bought into defense stocks thinking that a lot of things are going to happen.
00:47:13 Things happened. But nine out of ten people bought into it,
00:47:16 sold off thinking that they made their profits.
00:47:19 The same thing could possibly happen to energy.
00:47:22 That's the way I'm looking at it.
00:47:25 A cold India, completely ignored once upon a time.
00:47:28 A few months ago I was asked about BHEL.
00:47:30 I said I will not be surprised if it's a 200 rupee stock.
00:47:34 They asked me why. I said I don't have specific reasons to mention it.
00:47:38 It's gone 200. Can it be a 300 rupee stock?
00:47:40 Possibly yes. But the company is still not making profits.
00:47:43 This is a space I think where the authorities are giving a lot of attention.
00:47:48 There is a shortage. There are not too many competitors around,
00:47:52 especially in some of the public sector names.
00:47:54 The stocks have gone abegging for quite some time.
00:47:57 They are attracting attention. There will be pullbacks which will keep on happening.
00:48:00 People will buy for the short term, will book their profits.
00:48:04 But I personally believe there's a lot of big money to be made in some of the stocks.
00:48:07 And names, if you ask me, I would say I would go with cold India at number one,
00:48:10 Gale at number two, even possibly NTPC at number three.
00:48:13 You can go with names like REC, PFC.
00:48:16 Have the stocks gone up?
00:48:17 Didn't I mention earlier the market is always smarter than us?
00:48:20 So all the stocks have gone up. They can all have their pullbacks.
00:48:23 But if you believe that you should be buying for the next two, three years
00:48:25 in a sector which will keep on growing, I think EnergyPack is one.
00:48:29 And if you believe that you are there for the next two, three years,
00:48:32 don't bother about pullbacks. Just go on accumulating the stocks.
00:48:35 That's the way I believe. That's the way I'm doing. Clear disclosures.
00:48:38 And I have a right to go wrong. But I think I'll go right on this.
00:48:42 Right. Very interesting, sir. And if I can just try and push you a little more on that.
00:48:47 What about some of the power generators, the likes of an NTPC, a Tata Power?
00:48:52 You've spoken about cold India. You've spoken about BHEL.
00:48:55 You've spoken about REC, PFC, all ancillaries.
00:48:58 There are at least 10 more names, if you ask me. NTPC is certainly one of them.
00:49:02 And if you don't want to pay directly the power sector or the energy sector,
00:49:06 go and buy into some of these transformer companies also.
00:49:08 Now, you will say, what is transformers? They're doing very well.
00:49:11 I think in the last 20 years, there are transformer companies.
00:49:14 I think they are having the best time right now.
00:49:17 And there is, I don't think anything looking back for them at the moment.
00:49:20 A name like Bharat Bijli. Look at the way the stock has given appreciation.
00:49:24 Again, disclosure, I'm holding it and I'm continuing to buy it.
00:49:27 And maybe it's a 7000 rupee stock, according to me, over the next one year.
00:49:31 Or Voltem transformers, or CG Power.
00:49:33 Look at the performance these companies are delivering.
00:49:36 The stock prices have climbed sharply. There could be pullbacks.
00:49:40 But I think this is another sector which should remain in favor
00:49:43 and should do well for investors going ahead.
00:49:46 So this entire energy pack, and I'm not saying only power,
00:49:49 this entire energy pack, or Calcutta Electric, CESC,
00:49:52 looks good for a trade also, possibly.
00:49:54 Going at levels which are much below its highs.
00:49:57 So all the stocks, according to me, should deliver returns.
00:50:00 I can go wrong, again I'm saying, but personally holding it,
00:50:02 so I have a right to discuss it and speak about it and recommend it.
00:50:05 Sure. Very interesting.
00:50:07 I need to know just the fact that some of these stocks have had such a sharp rally, Harsh.
00:50:11 So that it's interesting. I mean, Calcutta Electric or CESC,
00:50:14 it's now called in the last one month.
00:50:17 The 12-month chart is deceptive. I mean, 73% yes.
00:50:20 But if you look at the last one month or two months,
00:50:22 it's had a very sharp run from maybe 70, 80, all the way to currently 134.
00:50:27 So Kunal, actually this was a fundamental pick from Mr. Mehrabu Nirani,
00:50:32 and I would love to take your closing strategy too,
00:50:35 but before that, a view on Calcutta Electric,
00:50:37 because a couple of days back,
00:50:39 somebody recommended the chart formation of CESC
00:50:42 and some of the other power names as very strong.
00:50:44 Do you track them? Yes, definitely I track it, Niranj.
00:50:48 I think firstly to talk about CESC, the trend is quite strong.
00:50:52 The stock has always been taking support at 20 DMA,
00:50:55 plus there's a clear cut uptrend, which is visible in the stock,
00:50:58 with higher high, higher low formations, which is intact.
00:51:01 So looking at the entire chart structure,
00:51:03 the stock can easily go in the short term towards that 150 to 160 marks on the higher end.
00:51:08 So it's definitely on the buy list from the current levels as well.
00:51:13 Right. Okay, if we can also quickly,
00:51:19 Kunal, we didn't get your views on Nifty IT.
00:51:22 So again, just before close, if we can have your quick views on it,
00:51:25 because that's the one sector which has gone up 7% odd in December,
00:51:29 but it's languishing in January. So your views here.
00:51:34 I think the kind of breakout what we had seen earlier,
00:51:37 we are seeing some pullback coming over here for the Nifty IT space,
00:51:41 but the overall structure still looks more or less positive to me.
00:51:45 I think on the lower end, if I look at the IT chart,
00:51:48 33,500 has been a very strong support
00:51:51 and the IT index is currently trading at 34,400 mark or so.
00:51:55 So maybe a little bit more downside what you can get from the current levels from the IT space.
00:52:00 From there onwards, we can again resume some uptrend as well.
00:52:03 I think mid-cap IT is something which is looking very interesting to me.
00:52:06 That could do very well going forward as well.
00:52:09 That is what one should focus on. And also on the cash market,
00:52:13 if I talk about Zenzartech is something which I would like to highlight over here.
00:52:17 Extremely bullish on a technical chart perspective on Zenzartech,
00:52:20 at least from the current levels,
00:52:23 20 to 25% upside is visible in the next three to six months.
00:52:28 Right. Very interesting views coming in from Kunal,
00:52:31 especially on the mid-cap side of things. But Kunal, again,
00:52:34 I will come back to you. Any your picks for BTSD?
00:52:39 See, I think if you look at BTSD,
00:52:43 I think Pharma as a name is something which we are suggesting that something still more upside,
00:52:50 which is left over here. So Lupin is something which is looking good for me.
00:52:54 The stock has been a very strong uptrend.
00:52:56 It has been breaking about its critical resistance zone as well.
00:53:00 So 1,406 is somewhere the stock is currently trading.
00:53:04 One can initiate long positions at the current levels as well,
00:53:07 keeping a stop loss of 1380 on the downside and looking for targets of 1450 to 1470.
00:53:14 All right. Well, again, roughly six odd minutes to close.
00:53:20 And, you know, some of those views coming in with regard to BTSD as well.
00:53:27 So, you know, Mr. Irani, if I can have your views on,
00:53:32 you know, we haven't spoken about the financial services sector.
00:53:37 There is a consensus opinion in among market experts that FinNifty
00:53:44 and especially Nifty Bank is going to be a one way move largely
00:53:49 because asset quality is at an all time best.
00:53:52 And, you know, we're also looking at very strong credit growth.
00:53:56 You didn't mention that you were bullish on within the financial services pack,
00:54:01 but is there something that you are bullish on? And if so, which pocket?
00:54:06 I would say PSU banks and even regional banks.
00:54:10 And if I missed out on stating banks, that's my error.
00:54:13 I have been positive on this for quite some time.
00:54:15 Now, the private sector banks, I still own them on a personal level.
00:54:19 I would say they are still part of my core portfolio.
00:54:23 I'm feeling frustrated. They're not moving up, but I keep on holding them.
00:54:27 I have faith in them. They will deliver one fine day.
00:54:29 And for people who believe that I don't want to buy PSU banks,
00:54:33 they have gone up too sharply, too much.
00:54:36 There is a possibility they were correct.
00:54:38 I still want to go and buy the private sector banks.
00:54:40 I would say go ahead and do that.
00:54:41 So I'm comfortable holding on to private sector banks,
00:54:44 but I still believe that the upside in PSU banks could continue to outperform
00:54:49 the movement in private sector bank stocks,
00:54:52 at least over the next one, two, three quarters.
00:54:54 And there are those regional banks, some of them lying low,
00:54:57 like say a bank of Maharashtra, a South Indian bank, a Karur Vaishya Bank,
00:55:01 and a Karnataka bank, which is lying low for the last three, four months.
00:55:04 And with a new CEO in place, I believe a lot of things are happening.
00:55:08 And this could be the next stock to move up.
00:55:10 All four stocks in the regional banks, I'm personally holding it,
00:55:13 no bias over here.
00:55:15 Right, but some might say two things,
00:55:19 and I'm just trying to play devil's advocate here.
00:55:22 Some might say that the free float in some of these names is very, very low.
00:55:27 Some might also say that the RBI is continuously giving cautionary guidance
00:55:33 with regard to asset quality, which may not be absolutely clean
00:55:38 at the moment in the system, and trying to plug some loopholes,
00:55:41 which may be giving an indication that everything may not be as well.
00:55:47 And generally, what we've seen is the first ones to slip are some of these PSU names.
00:55:53 What gives you that confidence that maybe there may still be some time
00:55:58 for some of these things to play out?
00:56:01 On a lighter note, let me say it, you are talking like a person who has,
00:56:04 of course, not you, but in general, there are people who talk the same language.
00:56:07 There are people who are feeling left out.
00:56:10 So let me say that.
00:56:11 As far as the RBI cautionary statements, I think justified.
00:56:17 It is referring to unsecured credit.
00:56:19 People are borrowing money on credit cards and other things,
00:56:22 and putting the money in relatively on paper riskier assets like equity.
00:56:28 People are making money, and if this becomes a big bubble, it could be a problem.
00:56:32 But I think somewhere an answer was there in the way you put the question across.
00:56:37 The point is PSU banks and property stocks, on the other hand,
00:56:42 are the same reasons why they have gone up.
00:56:44 PSU banks, the books became clean.
00:56:46 Property stocks, inventory levels had come down very sharply.
00:56:51 So the problems which were with them for the last many years, I think, were taken care of.
00:56:57 And therefore, we saw the sharp rally in property stocks for the right reason,
00:57:01 and we have seen a decent rally in PSU banks,
00:57:03 because suddenly the books started looking very clean, and they had a lot of room,
00:57:07 and quite a few of them have raised money from the market,
00:57:12 especially some of the regional banks have raised money from the market.
00:57:14 They have money to lend, and that is what is happening right now,
00:57:17 and it is reflected in the stock prices.
00:57:20 Okay. So that's PSU banks.
00:57:23 And Mehrabi Narain clearly sounds convinced.
00:57:25 How many stocks do you have in your portfolio?
00:57:28 I'm trying to understand, because you have a lot of these stocks.
00:57:32 Well, Neeraj, over the years you have interviewed me, you have noted one thing,
00:57:35 that if I am recommending a stock, certainly I should be holding it.
00:57:37 Yes.
00:57:38 If I am positive on a stock and I am telling a viewer to buy it,
00:57:41 and I say I don't hold it, something is seriously wrong with me.
00:57:43 So I am mentioning stocks only which I am personally holding them.
00:57:46 Sure. Fair call. Okay.
00:57:48 So, well, that's the view on the clutch of these PSU banks as well.
00:57:53 But as we wrap up trade, the clear distinction seems to be that IT and metals have a dull day,
00:58:03 and, well, what is doing well, you have to admit, is a group of stocks,
00:58:08 which is the Adani group of stocks, which have had a good run,
00:58:10 and pharmaceuticals has had a splendid move today.
00:58:13 Not all, but a clutch of pharma names have had a great run.
00:58:17 Harsh, take it away.
00:58:18 Yes, absolutely. Very close to close, Neeraj.
00:58:22 And let's pull up the sectoral indices to start off with just before close.
00:58:29 We'll pull this up as soon as we close, if we may.
00:58:33 But we're looking at around 3/4 of a percent of a downtick,
00:58:37 150 points lower on the Nifty 50 itself.
00:58:41 21500 is where we are at. The Nifty Bank, largely flat.
00:58:46 On a day when, mind you, HDFC Bank is down nearly 1.5%.
00:58:52 And if we can pull up the chart for HDFC Bank, we haven't covered that actually.
00:58:56 We ought to have.
00:58:57 The Nifty mid-cap is, the broader market's doing quite well,
00:59:01 a quarter of a percent higher on the Nifty mid-cap.
00:59:04 The Nifty small-cap as well, trading in the green.
00:59:08 And the advance decline, oh, just marginally in the green,
00:59:11 actually, it's given up some of its gains now.
00:59:13 And if we can have the advance decline ratio, very, very interesting,
00:59:17 continues to be in favor of the advances,
00:59:19 1000 plus on the NSE with regard to the advances.
00:59:24 Also, if we can have the sectoral gainers and losers overall,
00:59:28 we're looking at, again, the same names where we started the India market close show at.
00:59:35 2.5% lower on the Nifty IT. The market has now closed.
00:59:40 1.28% higher on the Nifty PSU Bank, which is the standout sector for the day.
00:59:47 As Neeraj mentioned, 2.5% lower on the Nifty IT,
00:59:50 almost 2% lower on the Nifty Metal.
00:59:53 And we also have names like the Nifty, the Fin Nifty,
00:59:58 which has closed around a third of a percent lower.
01:00:00 Nifty Auto closing a fifth of a percent lower as well.
01:00:04 Also, let's quickly pull up names of the Nifty IT constituents.
01:00:08 Let's see that underperformance is pretty much secular.
01:00:12 All the constituents on the Nifty IT in the red as we speak,
01:00:17 2+% across the board,
01:00:19 whether HCL Tech all the way to Emphasis, which is down 3.8%.
01:00:23 So that negativity really creeping in after yesterday's poor day of trade for the Nifty IT as well.
01:00:31 Let's also pull up the Nifty PSU Bank because that has been the standout for the day.
01:00:37 The Nifty PSU Bank PNB, which has had a stellar run over the last month or so, is lower.
01:00:43 But other than that, across the board, you're seeing a sea of green.
01:00:46 Bank of Maharashtra, of course, declaring a solid set of growth numbers,
01:00:49 20% on both sides of the balance sheet, definitely a positive.
01:00:53 Can bank also 3.5% higher.
01:00:55 But other than that, IOB, some amount of bulk deals, block deals happening there.
01:01:00 I beg your pardon. But that's where we are at at the moment.
01:01:05 And, you know, that's a wrap, you know, on from our side, from Neeraj,
01:01:11 myself, everyone who puts the show together.
01:01:14 Thanks so much for watching. Of course, stay tuned.