- Eyes on this week's #Nifty option expiries
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Take stock of the derivative markets with Agam Vakil and Samina Nalwala on the F&O Show. #NDTVProfitLive
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- Looking for value in IT
Take stock of the derivative markets with Agam Vakil and Samina Nalwala on the F&O Show. #NDTVProfitLive
_______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
Follow NDTV Profit here
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit
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TVTranscript
00:00 sectors in the green barring media and financial services and realty emerging as a top sectoral
00:06 gainer for the second straight day and bajaj finance to g1 small finance angel broking surge
00:13 and better than expected q3 update and nifty it recoups yesterday's losses to trade in the green
00:20 lnd tech and infi lead the gains and rate cut chatter fades as fed minutes sign sing a different
00:27 tune us born yield spike rise to close to four percent before losing ground
00:38 hello and welcome this is fno spotlight and you are joined by agam and me well the markets
00:54 uh contradictory contradictory to what we were expecting this morning we're actually trading
00:58 positive after two days of profit taking we seem to be leading the way when it comes to global
01:02 markets the nifty after a pause has regained its rally in today's day of trade to a close well
01:07 above levels of 21 600 ahead of the nifty options expiry today the breadth of the markets also
01:13 looking pretty good the broader markets continue to outperform the benchmark index and that is
01:18 again something we've seen over the last few days of trade well in terms of sectors banks are doing
01:22 well financials are not doing too badly financial services are up over a percent you've also got
01:27 gains rolling in for pharma and the psu banking index but real estate is what's taking the cake
01:32 after a rally for percent and a half yesterday the reality index traded a massive gain in trade this
01:38 morning five and a half percent higher and i think i'm going to take that and talk to agam about this
01:43 agam when was the last time you saw an index gain five percent yeah on a quiet day real estate
01:49 trades higher by a five percent yesterday it added another percent and a half and all this
01:53 and the nifty is not doing too much actually right samina you know uh the realty index is also
01:58 reacting to the expectations on the quarterly updates which will start coming in from the real
02:04 estate sector and that's potentially one of the big reasons why a whole host of companies from
02:10 that particular sector are in fact doing well prestigious states and brigade enterprises
02:14 specifically in this case but i'll talk about that in just a bit let's address what's happening the
02:18 futures and option space and we are looking at more strength on the nifty uh and well i reckon
02:23 that there will be an unwinding on cars because not everyone was in fact expecting the nifty to
02:28 move higher in today's day of trade it is also the nifty weekly options expiry so it could perhaps get
02:34 a little volatile within a broad range uh talking about the bank nifty too and that is where we are
02:40 seeing that significant strength coming in on account of banks banks have moved up because
02:46 of quarterly updates which have already come and we have some very positive attraction that's been
02:52 registered as far as some of your relatively smaller names from the financial space is concerned
02:57 which is why we're starting to see a little bit more positions building in the index this specific
03:03 index future moving on in terms of how things are panning out for today's options markets
03:09 this of course is the bank or open interest distribution but i want to talk about the nifty
03:14 because it is of course at the end of the day the nifty or options ooi and that should come up for
03:19 you on your screen there you have it so that's as far as your open interest for the nifty is concerned
03:24 and at the moment we are seeing most amount of traction around 21 600 because that's exactly
03:29 where we are at the moment and we are slightly higher and in the last half an hour of trade
03:37 we've also seen a lot of writing around the 20 000 21 650 and the 21 500 levels and those specific
03:46 strikes so we're going to keep an eye on these levels as we move into trade well through the
03:52 course of the day finally to talk about of course this is the change and as i was mentioning we are
03:58 looking a little more writing around 21 500 21 600 but finally to talk about stocks let's pull
04:03 up that list of all the those which are in fact seeing an increase in open interest so chambal
04:08 fertilizers marginal up move of course the buyback has been announced well or rather the board will
04:14 consider the buyback concord along with lnt tech and those are advances and of course pvx apia pvr
04:22 inox pardon me and ltim under pressure they're looking at shorts at the moment in terms of stocks
04:27 which are seeing unwinding in trade well all of them are looking at short covering so cormandel
04:32 nalco ngc apollo hospitals and chola mandalam well advancing in trade even as we see a decline in
04:39 open interest and hence about of short covering there not unlike the nifty to be honest because
04:44 that is also where we are seeing at least some amount of shots being covered question is where
04:49 do we see the nifty expiry towards the end of the session that we will know over the course of the
04:55 next few hours of samina right agam that's of course the f no picture just a quick check of
05:01 all those big gainers coming in from the real estate pack so by stopping the chart 16 and a
05:06 half percent gains in trade right now brigad is up eight and a half percent lodha is gaining six
05:11 and a half percent godrej properties dlf overall realty prestige phoenix are all trading with gains
05:18 of four to five percent each a quick word on the realty pack because that of course is eye-catching
05:25 to say the least stocks like dlf prestige soba they've delivered over a hundred and thirty three
05:30 percent returns in the month of 2020 in the year of 2023 and the rally continues with the pack
05:36 as we see it this morning lots of other counters that are holding the markets in today's day of
05:41 trade in emphasis on back of brokerage upgrades is supporting the index banks as well so nbfc's
05:47 banks continuing to do okay in today's session so well we're well below levels of 48 000 but
05:53 it does seem like the bulls are in control of bank nifty for now at least well we have with us ashish
05:59 kyal our founder and ceo wave strategy advisor nilesh jain head avp tech and derivatives research
06:07 at centrum brooking morning gentlemen thanks for joining us and nilesh what are you making of trade
06:13 today global queues were quite negative we've held out though in today's day of trade that of course
06:19 is a good thing because the buying is coming in it banks and real estate are providing some
06:23 leadership on the flip though between jan 1st and jan 3rd the nifty has made new low lows how are you
06:30 reading into that good morning samina good morning everyone so today's move was quite surprising
06:38 uh against the global market where we have seen some amount of cut uh but good part is that the
06:43 bank nifty which was the laggard has now started uh joining the rally and leading from the front
06:48 so looking at the participation from the index heavyweight counters like hdfc bank reliance
06:53 industries lnt i feel that we are likely to witness a follow-up move uh from here and expiry
07:00 could be seen on a positive side for the nifty 21 600 to 21 700 could be the expiry range and
07:06 bank nifty looks positive for 48 300 to 48 500 sort of levels uh from internal point of view
07:12 so as far as stock specific action is concerned reality space as a whole is looking positive so
07:17 we are focusing on that space apart from that yes we are witnessing across the board buying but yes
07:22 pharmaceutical space within that space sunfarm is looking positive so focus is also there as well
07:28 so for the day we expect uh market to trade on a positive bias with the buy and decline approach
07:33 any dip towards the 21 600 21 550 could be a good opportunity to make a fresh entry on the long side
07:39 and lastly uh from where we are getting confidence is india week's volatility index for the uh fifth
07:45 sixth trading session we are witnessing lower top and lower top formation at one point of time it was
07:50 trading beyond 16 level now it is coming to the comfort zone for the bulls below below 14 levels
07:55 and further drop we definitely pull the index on the higher side so watch out for endeavors as well
07:59 right well ashish let me get you into the conversation as well good morning uh you
08:05 your view on the indices at the moment nifty specifically how would you trade it
08:09 uh good morning to you and all the viewers uh see if you look at nifty there has been some uh
08:15 two days of downfall that we saw but if you look at the follow-up action today we had a
08:20 we managed to move upside with a gap up opening we are sustaining about that we have broken about the
08:25 upper uh the first hour of candle so overall undertone looks to be bullish as of now and we
08:30 are in a medium term to long term uptrend so the short term correction i think might get might be
08:35 over and we are headed towards the level of 21 683 which is again level over the maybe today's
08:41 session so the expiry can be around 21 680 and eventually i think we should be crossing that 22
08:47 000 mark also so that's uh not uh immediately but over the near term i think we should cross that
08:52 on the downside i think 21 550 should remain protected if we move back below 21 550 then
08:58 there can be some consolidation over near term post which we will resume the up move so undertone
09:03 remains bullish for the market i think there will be uh participation from broader markets as well
09:08 mid-cap is already outperforming and we can see real estate is outperforming today the it will
09:14 catch up so it's a sector rotation that we are seeing across the space and each sector is
09:18 contributing towards the up move so the overall undertone is uh healthy we can see a good advance
09:24 decline ratio also so overall i'm bullish on the market ninesh what's the trade on bank nifty would
09:30 you go long at these levels absolutely samina so uh looking at yesterday's candle where we have seen
09:37 a smart recovery in an intraday of roughly around 200 point and due to which it has managed to close
09:43 somewhere around uh 40 47 700 mark so today's move after a fall of last two three consecutive
09:51 session i think there is a reversal in the trend and we expect further up move to continue towards
09:56 48 300 to 48 500 these are the spot levels for the bank nifty so yes at current level i would
10:01 rather wait for some deep towards 47 900 to 47 850 then a long trade can be initiated keeping
10:08 stock below 47 700 for the target of 48 300 to 48 500 okay that's the view on bank nifty and ashish
10:16 your assessment of the bank nifty see bank nifty had a very important resistance of around 47 800
10:22 and that is broken uh in the opening candle itself so the overall opening 15 minute itself the uh
10:28 47 800 is broken and the index is moving higher i think even yesterday when we saw some selling
10:34 pressure in nifty but bank nifty managed to outperform protect the lows so overall i think
10:39 bank nifty can take a lead from here i'm expecting the index to go towards the level of 48 200 on the
10:44 upside and on the downside the support for the index is going to be around 47 700 so overall
10:50 undertone remains bullish for bank nifty as well you know samina uh yeah it just so happens that
10:55 all the analysts that we've been talking to since morning uh they're positive on the bank nifty
11:00 after the kind of volatility that we've seen and they're all expecting it to move over 48 000
11:06 it's not too far from those levels but we are seeing some gains and it's that that picture is
11:11 playing out very well just look at the what's also interesting agam is because up until a few days ago
11:16 uh the the hope of bank nifty doing well depended wholly and solely on the front line name so it's
11:23 all about hdfc keeping itself together pulling its weight performing surprisingly i saw this
11:29 yesterday it was a broader market uh banking names that did well on business updates so your bank of
11:33 maharashtra today you've got bandhan bank g1 financials pnb so while bank nifty is finding
11:40 support but it's coming from quarters that wasn't expected right right absolutely uh well uh you
11:45 know before we move into a break one i'll very quickly address one of the sectors as well uh i
11:51 want to take up the real estate sector in general uh nilesh uh this is perhaps out of the syllabus
11:57 but any of the real estate names that stand out for you at the moment which could potentially
12:03 move even higher anything on your radar so agam nifty reality index it up fresh all-time high
12:09 today and within this space a couple of counters which has led the rally that is obera reality
12:15 so this particular counter has outperformed the reality pack along with that dlf we are also
12:20 witnessing a good move so yes there is a trade in opera reality although in last few minutes we have
12:25 seen some spurt but it can be added at current level as well because looking at the breakout
12:30 it looks like it is heading towards 1550 on immediate basis followed by 1580 that is from
12:36 two to three days point of view the momentum looks strong so yes this momentum can be played
12:41 in orbital reality one can buy at current level or add on decline keep a stop loss below 1480
12:47 and upset target comes around 1550 to 1580 the day belongs to the realty pack the sectors are
12:53 five percent most of the stocks are also up five to ten percent each soba of course an outlier
12:57 which is up 18 percent when i last checked we'll take a break we'll come back we'll continue a
13:02 conversation with ashish and nilesh for the stock specific uh trades this off this morning
13:15 so
13:29 so
13:43 so
13:57 so
14:11 so
14:24 so
14:38 so
14:52 so
15:06 so
15:20 so
15:44 so
16:10 so
16:37 so welcome back and now it's time to put the spotlight on all the trading ideas that our
16:48 experts have ashish i come to you i believe you have two on your radar can you take us through
16:53 your picks today yes the first one is uh omg we can clearly see a very strong breakout uh as of
17:00 now on omg stock uh the volumes are picking up uh the stock has managed to break that 210 levels
17:06 which was acting as a very important hurdle and it's sustaining there so i think this talk is going
17:10 to be headed towards the level of around 227.50 uh that is the target on the upside and on the
17:15 downside one can maintain a stop loss of 202 uh the next topic is going to be starlight tech uh
17:21 it has formed a classic uh double triple bottom kind of a pattern uh with good divergence that
17:27 we can see on the indicators uh which shows that the downside momentum has reduced and the stock
17:32 is now getting ready possibly in the third wave on the upside and we should have a very strong move
17:37 on the upside in starlight tech the immediate target is going to be around 161 but i'm optimistic
17:42 we might even head towards 175 and on the downside the stop loss has to be maintained at 144 levels
17:47 nilesh what about you what are you recommending today your top trade uh for our viewers uh so
17:55 samina yes we are also focusing on a long side so one stock that has just been covered that is
18:00 ongc was also on my radar uh so this particular counter is constantly forming a higher up and
18:06 above formation the stock is hitting all-time highs uh the structure still looks strong for
18:10 220 sort of levels on immediate basis one can keep a stop loss below 209.5 so that should be the stop
18:16 loss and the other stuff that i've just highlighted that is from reality space over a reality this
18:22 particular counter looks strong for the upside target of 1550 to 1580 one can keep a stop loss
18:26 below 1480 and there is another counter just want to highlight that is bandhan bank so banking as a
18:32 whole is looking positive bandhan bank has given a good breakout from his consolidation zone and
18:37 it looks like a triangle sort of formation and it's a long six to eight months consolidation
18:42 that has been taken off on bandhan bank looks positive for 270 to 280 on immediate basis
18:48 one can keep a stop loss below 251 so yes this is the first shock that we are liking
18:53 all right uh let's very quickly address what's happening with bajaj finance as well came up with
18:58 this quarterly update and it did seem like it's been a positive one let's take a look at what the
19:04 stock's doing it is advancing in today's day of trade we are seeing good gains coming through and
19:09 of course the stock is reacting to uh the kind of updates that it has come up with remember
19:15 that it was in fact bajaj finance and bajaj fin serve which were aiding the the benchmarks
19:23 along with the fin nifty and to a certain extent over the previous couple of days and it seems like
19:30 now we come to know as to why that possibly could be it because we're seeing that that that up move
19:37 here and quite likely you know keeping in check the fall as please as far as the financial indices
19:43 are concerned i want to take a view on the on bajaj finance itself ashish if you could offer us
19:50 some sort of an assessment here how would you trade this one uh see bajaj finance showed a very
19:56 good move on the upside but there is some kind of a rejection that we saw from around 7700
20:01 and uh 18 levels are so we have to see this top moving back about 7700 uh and and sustain there
20:09 so as of now i think uh it's forming a rounding bottom kind of a pattern but the breakout is
20:14 awaited 7700 is the neckline we need an hourly close about 7700 and if that happens then we can
20:21 head towards the level of 8000 on the upside overall i think it is positive on the downside
20:27 the gap area of 7400 is going to be an important support and break above 7700 is going to take this
20:33 stock towards 8000 levels right thank you nilesh thank you ashish it was great talking to both of
20:39 you and getting your picks for our show in the meantime it's a good looking market we are breaking
20:44 the trend looking good broader markets are looking like they're in strength the bulls very clearly in
20:49 control of the street now until of course europe opens up in the second half we should be holding
20:54 steady for now at least we spoke to the management of sharm metallics earlier today about the company
21:00 venturing into new businesses remember they've launched a qip as well here's a slice of that
21:04 conversation see we had been observing from last you know two and two and a half year like you know
21:11 if you see the results like what we pre-ipo and last year financial we almost doubled the top line
21:17 and the major advantage with uh you know focus if we see we had been always a very distinct company
21:25 like very different you know on our business valuation side on our product side on the risk
21:31 mitigation side we always say that you know we are a metal mart we are going to create a fmcg
21:38 metal basket like you see in one of the we are in the aluminum space we are in the stainless steel
21:45 we just uh integrated into a stainless steel business just because you know we make all the
21:50 raw material of the stainless steel and uh down the stream you know like if we are doing anything
21:56 forward or backward it's complement each other very well apart from that you know uh if you see
22:02 from in next two to three years we expect that the revenue is almost going to be double
22:06 lot a lot of our expansion what we declared two years back from middle of coming year you know
22:12 this year itself we'll see plant getting commissioned so we'll see the numbers increasing
22:18 the stainless steel plant has also been commissioned the plant which we took over
22:22 from the nclt this itself is also going to be regularized this year so a lot of happening and
22:29 you know if you see uh in last two three years we have always uh marches towards the uh the value
22:36 added product uh the speciality alloy uh the aluminum uh lithium foil you know what we
22:42 uh you know what we commissioned and our product got approved in the time to come we see the battery
22:51 unit which is going to come up in the country we will be a very important partner to them so
22:58 the b2c space what we you know if you see uh in last two years the revenue in the b2c space has
23:07 gone up three times threefold and the color-coded business also which is going to be commissioned
23:12 in the coming year itself is going to add a lot of value to our supply chain management.
23:17 Sure so sir quickly uh you know the three businesses you highlighted one was stainless
23:24 steel uh the other was aluminum foil and the third was ev are all three of these going to be margin
23:30 accretive uh for the business currently so uh okay let me try and simplify this a little more
23:35 talk to us about where your margins are currently and where they will be in fy27
23:40 once all three of these businesses businesses go fully on road.
23:45 See uh all the business enjoy a very special margin like you know if you talk these special
23:51 businesses generally are at the level of around you know 20 percent 15 to 20 percent EBITDA level
23:58 these three specialization but apart from that if you are talking for the revenue of 26 27
24:04 I said like this year uh we should be able to double in next two to three years so if I'm
24:12 talking of you know today uh this year we should be able to do a top line of around 15 15 000
24:20 crores approximately 14 and a half 15 so we expect that in two to three years we should be between
24:25 27 to 30 000 crores and apart from that you know we have more vertical line like you know uh this
24:33 is a flat product color-coded on the long product space also b2c and then we have a flat product
24:41 space and if you see throughout the time you know if you see the track record of last two to three
24:49 years we had been increasing the volume we had been increasing the uh you know the value added
24:56 product in our business and down the line also whatever new businesses and new expansion what
25:01 we have declared it is more on the downside on the value addition side right that was the
25:07 talics and on that note it's a wrap on the f no show but lost my lined up on the other side stay
25:12 tuned to ndtv profit
25:21 so
25:31 so
25:40 so
25:49 so
26:10 so
26:18 so