Why Pochettino's Chelsea Still Isn't Working
Pressure on Chelsea manager Mauricio Pochettino. Has he been unlucky with results, or is his plan for the team simply unworkable? FourFourTwo's Adam Clery examines English football's biggest conundrum.
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00:00 *intro*
00:03 Hello everybody, Adam Cleary, 442 here and Chelsea, what the hell-see.
00:09 Yeah, they've just done it again, haven't they?
00:11 They've posted a corner-turning win against Brighton, followed up by a very weird evening against Manchester United,
00:16 and have now just been done by Everton.
00:19 And this has, of course, been the pattern for their season so far, so we must ask the question in today's video,
00:24 just, why is this team not good?
00:28 *ding*
00:30 Alright, so, okay, this is the XI that started against Everton.
00:34 I think anybody looking at this would say, "That's actually a pretty good team!"
00:38 You've got solidity and intelligence at the back, and Rhys James, who's really, really good.
00:42 You've got two of the most expensive central midfielders ever, and up front,
00:46 you've got, like, a mix of experience and potential and work rate, and just, there's a lot, there's a lot good about this team.
00:54 But they went to Goodison Park, and they had more of the ball, they had more attempts on goal,
00:58 they controlled large parts of the match, and still, for a seventh time this season, got beat.
01:04 Well, if we go right back to the very start of the season, I think the consensus about Chelsea was that,
01:09 yes, the results had been poor, but the performances were actually quite good.
01:13 We even did a video on the channel looking at the underlying numbers from those early performances,
01:18 and the signs were very encouraging.
01:20 You can even see here, in this graph, that I have hastily and sloppily cobbled together.
01:24 If you're somebody who believes you can tell anything from the XG,
01:27 Chelsea were regularly, every single week, outscoring their opponent on XG,
01:32 and the highlights would always include really bad misses, usually from Nicholas Jackson, but could be absolutely anybody.
01:37 So the narrative was clear. They are playing well, they're having a lot of the ball,
01:41 their possession stats will put them on, they're excellent as well, they're just not taking their chances.
01:46 Now that is all still true, to an extent. If you look at the Everton game, they had loads of possession,
01:51 they had more attempts on goal, they had more attempts on target.
01:54 XG, if you're bothered, that was higher yet again, but if you watch that game,
01:58 you will just know that they never once looked in any danger of actually winning that.
02:04 And that is because those stats, in particular the whole XG and attempts stat, is now becoming quite misleading.
02:11 I'll just, I'll show you what I mean, right?
02:13 So touches on the ball, right, that's a fairly easy thing to understand.
02:16 It's passes that are completed, it's you running with it, it's how much control you have of the football.
02:21 In the defensive third of the pitch, Chelsea rank top in the entire Premier League for the amount of touches they have had this season.
02:29 And that means that they are as comfortable and as confident and as well drilled at just knocking the ball around the back
02:34 and retaining possession as teams like Brighton or Tottenham,
02:37 two sides whose entire system is based around control in that area of the pitch.
02:41 Now, if we move it forward to the middle third of the pitch, the total number of touches,
02:45 there is a drop-off, yes, but only to fifth position.
02:48 So in terms of how comfortable they are moving the ball up the pitch into the middle third,
02:52 they are the equals of Arsenal at doing that.
02:55 All right, so let's move it up to the attacking third now, the business end of the pitch,
02:59 where all the magic has to happen, and there is a drop-off, but only one position to sixth.
03:04 In terms of retaining the ball, of passing the ball, of carrying the ball in your opponent's third,
03:09 the hardest place to do that, they are better than Brighton and better than Newcastle.
03:14 They do it almost as much as Liverpool do.
03:17 But let's do one more stat.
03:20 A key pass, OK, it's a really easy one to understand, it is any pass of the ball that leads directly to a shot.
03:26 On this one, Chelsea drop from first, fifth and sixth to 13.
03:31 They go from posting the same kind of numbers as Brighton, as Arsenal and as Liverpool,
03:36 to posting the same sort of numbers as Bournemouth and Crystal Palace and Brentford.
03:41 So what does that information actually tell us though?
03:43 Well, to put it really simply, it tells us that in terms of holding on to the ball,
03:46 to passing the ball, carrying the ball, building out from the back, moving up through the pitch,
03:50 90% of the game of football, Chelsea are really, really good.
03:55 But when it comes to turning that dominance, that possession, that ball control into threat,
04:01 into chances, the last 10%, the hardest 10%, they are exactly where they should be in the Premier League.
04:07 They are in lower mid-table.
04:09 But again, why is that?
04:11 Well, if there should have been one immediate takeaway from the Everton game,
04:14 it's that this does not look like a team that knows exactly what it's supposed to be doing in the final third.
04:21 Pochettino seems to have finally settled on this 4-2-3-1,
04:25 except it's not even really a 4-2-3-1 because Gallagher and Fernandes are both so all over the place
04:30 and covering so much ground, it's kind of like a very weird, conservative 4-3-3.
04:35 If I could just show you what I mean here, this is their pass map from the Everton game,
04:39 which shows you the average position they were making their passes from.
04:42 First of all, ignore Kukerea here. He wasn't playing in the middle.
04:46 He just played obviously the first half on one side, the first half on the other.
04:48 So his average is going to be in the middle. Just look at Gallagher and Fernandes.
04:52 Given that Gallagher here is supposed to be in a deep double pivot with Caicedo
04:56 and Fernandes is supposed to be at number 10 floating around the centre forward,
05:00 it's just not how that looks at all.
05:02 If we look at their individual pass maps, you can just see why this doesn't work at all.
05:06 Like this is Conor Gallagher, your nominal sitting midfield player,
05:10 who is absolutely everywhere across the course of a game.
05:14 And this is Enzo Fernandes, your creative attacking number 10,
05:17 who constantly drifts over to the left-hand side.
05:20 And just what should be leaping off this page at you as a Chelsea fan
05:24 is how few of these arrows point forward.
05:27 He so rarely is able to make an attacking pass in the final third.
05:32 In fact, honestly, if you just really squint at this, I think there's one like around here,
05:36 which is sort of the only ball that goes directly forward into a dangerous area.
05:42 Do you see what I mean with those numbers before?
05:44 How they're really good at the back and really good in the middle
05:46 and actually really good at retaining the ball here.
05:48 But when it comes to just getting the killer pass, opening a team up,
05:52 they just really struggle to do it.
05:54 So problem number one, Enzo Fernandes, your number 10,
05:57 is brilliant at playing football, but is not really making any chances for you.
06:01 In fact, let's get rid of all these passes and just replace it
06:04 with the chances he created in that game.
06:06 [crickets chirping]
06:09 Oh, all right, OK, we'll move on. Let's get back to Conor Gallagher,
06:12 your sitting midfielder. You'll notice he spends an awful lot of his time
06:16 on the right-hand side here. Why is that?
06:18 Well, because this is Cole Palmer's pass map, your right-hand side attacker.
06:22 You will see he drifts all the way over into the centre of the pitch,
06:25 very rarely goes down the byline, tries to play all of his game in this pocket here.
06:30 And actually, if you remember, he did that pretty effectively.
06:32 He got two really good long-range efforts off against Jordan Pickford.
06:35 They were both on target. But if we overlay all of Chelsea's shots on target
06:40 in that game, they're all just from outside the box.
06:44 They're all pretty much identical to that one from Palmer.
06:46 And if you remember as well, all the chances that were in the box,
06:49 that were a lot nearer the goal, they all missed.
06:51 They were all never likely to result in a goal.
06:54 They weren't good chances. So again, what does that tell you?
06:58 Chelsea, lot of the ball, very good on it, progressing up the pitch
07:00 really, really nicely, but get into the final third and don't know what to do.
07:05 So either they try and force a chance that's never going to go in,
07:08 or they just shoot from really far out.
07:10 And this is why, if you just rewind your brains a couple of minutes,
07:13 I said these stats about how they're playing are starting to get misleading.
07:17 Because yes, Chelsea again, do have a bigger XG than their opponents,
07:20 but it's just a cumulative score of having all these really, really poor chances.
07:26 They had 16 of them. If they all score like 0.1 or 0.2,
07:30 it's going to look like they should have had a goal,
07:33 but they were never going to get a goal.
07:34 They just do not have a clear attacking identity.
07:38 Like Fernandes, your best creator, isn't able to find a way to create anything.
07:42 Palmer, your best attacker, is coming in field to get into a dangerous area,
07:46 but then either has to do some brilliant bit of solo brilliance,
07:50 like he did against Man United, or just shoot and hope for the best.
07:54 And I mean, part of the reason he comes in field is so he can get Rhys James
07:57 up this side for his crossing and his direct running and his creativity,
08:01 and they can't get him fit. Like he hasn't finished 90 minutes once this season.
08:06 And every single week you watch Chelsea and it becomes harder and harder
08:09 to figure out what it is they're even being told to do.
08:12 Like in some games, you'll see them sit really deep and try and hit teams
08:15 on the counter with like Mudrick and Sterling, and they've created
08:18 quite a high number of chances doing that, but they've scored only like three
08:23 because they're not good chances. They're in like the top six or seven
08:27 for the number of crosses into the box this season, but they're also
08:30 rock bottom for crossing accuracy. So again, good with the build up.
08:34 They can get into those positions. They can go and do that.
08:37 But the fact that nobody can get on the end of them sort of shows
08:40 it's not really the plan. They can't create good chances that way.
08:43 And sometimes you'll see them press the opposition and push right the way up
08:47 and look like they've got the drive and the intensity to be that kind of team.
08:50 And indeed, look, they rank third in the league for the total number
08:54 of high turnovers. That can be a way to play. That can be a system.
08:58 But where do they rank for goals scored from high turnovers?
09:01 Pretty much right at the bottom again, because it's not something
09:05 they've clearly worked on. It's not the plan. It's just something they're doing.
09:10 And yes, by the way, you did just see that Man United were at the very top
09:13 and then the very bottom of that particular staff.
09:15 But we will talk about them another day. And the thing is as well,
09:18 if you go back through the fixtures and look at where the good performances were
09:21 and where their bad performances were, that paints a picture itself.
09:25 Like I thought they were brilliant against Manchester City.
09:27 They were really good against Spurs even before the sendings off.
09:30 But those are quite open games against good opponents who will let you play
09:34 and individual quality can shine through much better.
09:37 But they're more disappointing results like they couldn't score against
09:40 Nottingham Forest. They couldn't score against Bournemouth.
09:43 They couldn't score against Brentford. They couldn't score against Everton.
09:46 What do all these teams have in common? They're nice and tight and compact
09:50 and make it difficult for you. And you have to, as a team,
09:53 have ways of breaking that down. They haven't got that.
09:56 But the real, real problem here is that these results are already
09:59 and justifiably putting pressure on Mauricio Pochettino.
10:03 When you've seen the almost instant impact Emery's had at Villa,
10:07 that Postacoglou's had at Tottenham, it's not unreasonable to expect
10:10 the results to have been better. But Chelsea are in quite a unique position
10:14 compared to pretty much every other club.
10:17 They have the youngest squad in the entire Premier League.
10:20 Like the average age of their starting XI's this season
10:23 is younger than any other team. All of their transfers in the summer
10:27 by design were players under 25. And even the bulk of those
10:31 were barely above 20. And when you sign younger, less experienced players,
10:36 it normally, not always, but normally takes more time for them to settle
10:40 into new surroundings. They've got to play with new teammates,
10:43 with a new manager, in a new system. Some of them in a new league,
10:47 in a new country. There's a lot to consider here.
10:50 And if you saw that youngest average age graph before and spotted
10:53 that Arsenal were in too, you'd be like, "Aha! But Arsenal have a young team
10:56 and they're doing well." Look at how settled most of their young players are.
11:00 Bakaio Saka's like 9 or something, but he's been at Arsenal his entire career
11:04 and has 200 professional games under his belt at this point.
11:08 Like Martinelli is young as well, but he made his debut back in 2019.
11:12 They signed Saliba that same year, and yes, he's been out on loan and stuff,
11:16 but he came back with loads of experience.
11:19 But just think about it this way, okay? Declan Rice, Moises Caicedo,
11:22 the two defensive midfielders everybody was after this summer,
11:26 and they went for pretty much the same amount of money.
11:28 Declan Rice has settled instantly. Moises Caicedo looks to be having
11:31 a much harder time of it. Now I wonder why that could be.
11:34 Is it because Rice is really good and Caicedo is absolutely rubbish?
11:37 Or is it possibly that Rice has 250 games at the very top level
11:42 with West Ham under his belt, and Caicedo has played 45 times
11:46 in the Premier League for Brighton? Like, just trust me, okay?
11:49 This is honestly a good selection of players. It's not a good team yet,
11:54 but it is a good selection of players. The one thing it's lacking is experience.
11:59 Now whether that means they go out in January and they buy some older players
12:02 who can maybe slot in a bit better, allow the other ones sort of space
12:06 and the room to develop, or they just trust the process and they stick
12:10 with this squad and they just see where it ends up at the end of the season,
12:13 I don't know, but that's honestly all it's lacking.
12:17 Like, Nicholas Jackson is 22 and out of one season up front for Villarreal.
12:22 Like, he will get there as a centre forward, just not the next four games.
12:27 Anyway, that's just what I think, so let us know what you make of it all
12:29 in the comments below. I do dearly, dearly, dearly love to read them.
12:32 If you've enjoyed this video or think, "Ah, maybe there's potential there,
12:35 I might enjoy a future one," please do consider subscribing to us here
12:38 at 442 on YouTube. Subscribing, I say, every video is the one thing
12:41 that really, really does help us out. It's the one metric we get to point at
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12:46 So we're very, very grateful for those of you who choose to do that.
12:49 In the meantime, though, you can get me on Twitter @adampeary,
12:51 C-L-E-O-I, 442 socials in the corner, of the video.
12:54 And Maurizio, if you are watching, my good man, hang in there, baby.
13:00 It'll be fine. Goodbye.