Ask Profit | GCPL & Marico In Focus | NDTV Profit
- #GCPL & #Marico in focus
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on 'Ask Profit'. #NDTVProfitLive
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on 'Ask Profit'. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:00 Good morning, you're watching Ask Profit, a show where we take all your stock market
00:21 related queries and get them answered by a fundamental and technical guest. I'm Smriti
00:26 Chaudhary and with me is Alex Mathew. And today with us, we have Rahul Sharma of Equity99 and
00:33 Sneha Poddar of Motiral Oswal Financial Securities. You can ask all your questions to our guests
00:40 today. And for that, you can write to us on any of our social media channels or through the WhatsApp
00:46 number that's on your screen right now. You can also write to us on the YouTube live chat. Now,
00:51 before we dive into the questions, Alex, how are the markets faring at this juncture?
00:55 Well, it's been a significant chop and churn and good morning to everybody as well as to our
01:00 experts for the day. It's been considerable chop and churn and we were expecting that to be a
01:04 little bit of consolidation today and that's essentially how we're seeing things play out
01:09 today. So you have the benchmark 50-50 that's trading not too far away from the low point of
01:13 the day, down about 0.4 percent. And you have the broader markets that are more or less moving
01:18 along those same lines. So you have the mid cap 150 index that's down about half a percent or
01:23 thereabouts. And you have the small cap index that's seen cuts of about a third of a percent
01:27 or so. In fact, let's also pull up the market breadth and the advanced decline ratio should
01:32 give you a bit of a sense of how the texture of the market is this morning. There is understandably
01:37 a little bit of caution that is playing out not just in our market, but global markets as well.
01:42 Some of the run-up that you've seen in risk assets has turned around and you have the bond
01:48 yields in the US that have gone up quite substantially, now trending above 4 percent for
01:52 the 10 year. So there is a little bit of caution in the Asian markets as well. Among the key indices
01:57 and key sectors to watch out for, you have underperformance by the FMCG counters and we'll
02:02 talk about a few of them. You also have PSU banks that are down about 1.4 percent or thereabouts.
02:07 You have IT ahead of the major results at the end of the week as trading with weakness down about 1
02:13 percent or so. The ones that are bucking the trend, you have the Realty Index that's up about eight
02:17 tenths of a percent, a few very good numbers coming out from the quarterly updates for a few of the
02:24 real estate companies and Soba for example is doing particularly well. DLF is also up over 1 percent
02:30 right now. But let's focus in on the FMCG companies that I was talking about and a few of them,
02:36 couple of them, we're focusing on GCPL as well as Marico in our focus segment today on the back of
02:41 quarterly numbers. Smriti, what can you tell us about them? Well, we saw weaker than expected numbers
02:48 this time as well. So that trend continues. Now, Marico also reported domestic volumes in
02:55 single digits, the growth in single digits. However, international business did slightly
03:00 better than the domestic one. A couple of brokerages came out with their target prices
03:06 and they do see the GPM expansion to remain strong on a year on year basis due to continued softness
03:13 in certain commodities like copra edible oil for Marico. For Godrej Consumer, now it was
03:20 better than Marico, but very weak numbers there. And because of that, we're seeing a downtick in
03:27 both the stocks. Both are down about 4 percent. Now, we've seen these weaker numbers in the last
03:34 couple of quarters. Sneha, good morning. I'd like to understand from you, how long will this
03:41 trajectory continue of weaker numbers and when can we expect some better, probably better results
03:48 from these big companies? Very good morning. So basically, one of the major factors which has
03:57 really impacted the earnings for the consumer companies is the rural demand. So while the urban
04:03 demand is still quite decent, the rural demand has not really shown any pickup. It was anticipated
04:12 that it would pick up from Q3 onwards, but the quarterly updates shows that the demand has
04:18 continued to remain weak. There are now hopes that with the elections due in May, probably
04:26 it should provide some push up to the rural recovery. So probably Q4 might see some pickup
04:34 in demand. But it's all hopes because even in Q3, there was a miss despite the state elections being
04:42 there in November. So otherwise, apart from the demand front, the margins have shown uptick with
04:52 the softening of the raw material prices. So the only dampener currently is the rural demand,
04:58 which really needs to pick up and it's anybody's guess. The government is taking all these steps
05:04 to provide further subsidies to the farmers and to the rural economy. So
05:14 hopefully, things should arrive in Q4 onwards. Alright, so that's the view on… But specifically,
05:22 just to follow that up, any picks in the space because this is something that is being seen as
05:28 a weakness across the board. In this context, would you suggest a fresh entry in any of the
05:33 names that you're watching in the FMCG space? So in this context, I would suggest Tata Consumer,
05:39 wherein the dependency on rural demand is quite less. And the way the company is strategizing
05:47 the entire growth plans for the company, it's really impressive. So they already have TN Salt,
05:54 which is a cash cow business. And now the focus is completely on the other segments like the spices
06:01 and the pulses and everything, which they really want to scale it up to a large extent. And they're
06:08 in cashing on the distribution channel that they already have through TN Salt. So using that
06:14 distribution channel as well as using the online platform, they have really gained market share
06:19 tremendously in a very short span of time in these verticals. So the growth should continue to be
06:26 robust for Tata Consumer over the next few years. And we're quite confident on the company.
06:31 And the stock has in fact gained quite substantially, as you see on your screen,
06:35 in both the one month and the three month period. Let's jump straight into our questions now.
06:39 And we've got several that have already come in. Just a quick reminder, if you are tuning in
06:43 right now, you can send your questions to us on that WhatsApp number on your screen,
06:47 as well as on the YouTube channel, which we are monitoring right now. But the first question we're
06:52 taking is from Mohit, who is writing in from Ludhiana. And he's asking about Yes Bank. He's
06:57 bought 1500 shares at a price of 13.6 rupees per share. The stock is currently trading at 23.65.
07:05 He's got an outlook for the next one year. So I will go across on the technicals to Rahul.
07:11 Rahul, what are the key levels that you're monitoring right now? Would you suggest that
07:15 it's a good idea to take some money off the table at these levels?
07:17 Well, very good morning to all of you. See, as far as the Yes Bank is concerned,
07:23 I think the stock has given really good performance to him as he has taken the position near 13 levels.
07:31 Now it is trading above 23. So congratulations to you, first of all, because you have made like
07:36 really good money in this particular stock. I think there is a major resistance near 25 zone.
07:42 So you might wait for another one and a half rupee gain. But I think you have to like wait
07:49 and watch on a very strict basis, the 25 levels on Yes Bank, because there is a major resistance,
07:54 we have seen it in past also. So it might get some correction after reaching 25, where I think you
08:00 should take some partial profit booking in your position because you have already turned up this
08:06 investment in a really good manner. So I think some partial booking would be really beneficial
08:11 to you to take some profits in the pocket at this particular point of the market will be a good
08:17 decision. Then you can wait out like for further more like incoming days. The good support which
08:24 is available on the charts of Yes Bank is near 21 levels. So I think with the stop loss of 21,
08:30 you should carry on your position and also do partial profit booking at this point of time.
08:36 Right. Next one, we have a question from Naresh Thakur. He's talking about Castrol India.
08:42 He says he's bought shares at an average price of 170. Now he says that the stock touched 195 levels
08:49 but is under a little bit of pressure today and is trading around 184 currently. Now, Rahul,
08:56 I'd like to understand this from you. Now, we've seen a little bit of a breakout in this stock in
09:01 the last month, which is December. It was below 160, 140, 160 in that range trading for the last
09:08 couple of years. But in December, it had a breakout, crossed 160 levels. What do you see from
09:14 here? Should he book profits right now, get out of the stock or should he maybe wait, hold on to it
09:19 for some more time? See, definitely, we have seen really good action in the December month,
09:25 especially after the mid-December. And the rally was really good and it has given breakout. And
09:32 also the formation on current charts is looking like a flag pattern. But you have to keep a strict
09:38 stop loss at around 176 levels, which is like good support. If at all it breaks 176 on the downside,
09:45 I think it can go back to the levels where it was consolidating earlier near 150. So keep a strict
09:52 stop loss at 176 and keep your position up. And on the upside, I think as soon as it crosses 190
09:59 or 192 levels, you will see another breakout which can take this stock to 200 plus levels. So I think
10:04 keeping a strict stop loss at 176 will be a good idea to carry your position.
10:09 Understood. All right. I'm going to take a question on JMR Airports in front. This one's from
10:15 Geeta. She's writing in. I will take a question on the fundamentals. Sneha,
10:20 this is a stock that we've seen in focus. And in fact, it's up as much as 4.5% today as well
10:26 on several updates. But would you recommend a fresh entry at this point? And till what levels
10:33 would you accumulate this stock is the question coming in from Geeta. Her horizon is as much as
10:37 three to five years. So see, basically, if you check out the JMR journey, the journey has been
10:46 really good for the company. It has created a bouquet of almost more than nine airports. And
10:55 the kind of tie-ups, the strategic tie-ups that they are entering with the international airports
11:01 as well. So that would kind of ensure good revenue growth for the company. And moreover, given the
11:11 buoyancy that we have seen over the last few years, and it's still continuing in the overall
11:16 travel and tourism. So that should continue the momentum for the company. And given the positive
11:25 news flows that we have seen so far recently, and plus given the new plans that the company has with
11:34 regards to, say, non-aerial revenue streams or some of the other similar duty-free models
11:41 that they wish to adopt. So all these would further add momentum to the current buoyancy
11:48 that is ongoing. So we are quite optimistic on the company, though we do not have any
11:55 official coverage. But I believe that one can definitely hold on to this stock, and probably
12:04 it can go up to 100-plus levels. All right. Next up, we're talking about Tata Motors.
12:10 This question is from Ankur Patel. He's writing in from Ahmedabad. Now, we've seen Tata Motors
12:17 being the only stock in the Nifty-Nifty Index that doubled from 2023. Now, is it still a good
12:25 buy at this level, Sneha? Would you still recommend entering the stock? Definitely, because
12:31 recently the JLR number got announced. I mean, they have been really stellar numbers.
12:38 And given the company's plans with regards to the whole EV business is really impressive.
12:46 So I would say all its verticals are doing really well. And one should definitely consider,
12:54 even at these levels, because of valuation-wise, it's still at a very attractive level. So
13:00 definitely hold from a long-term point of view. And probably if the investor is a long-term
13:07 investor, then he can definitely see 1000-plus levels in a year's time. All right. The next
13:12 question is on Adani Enterprises. We've got a question coming in from Sanjana Gupta.
13:17 She's asking for a short-term view. And I will come to you on the charts, Rahul. It's trading
13:22 about 3000 levels. Should she buy at these levels is the question for the short term?
13:27 See, Alex, I think she should wait furthermore. I think there is some decline which will be
13:34 witnessed in the coming session if at all the market doesn't support. Although the good
13:40 entry point, in my view, would be around 2870-2890 levels, which will be a fair point to enter in
13:47 this stock. I think there is good support which is available at 2800. So the risk-to-reward ratio
13:54 will be better if you pick the trade near 2870 or 2890 levels. On the upside, I think there is a
14:01 major hurdle which is placed at around 3075. If till the time it doesn't cross this level,
14:09 I think some more sideways move or minor correction will be seen. Although the charts are positive,
14:14 and I think it should perform. But the entry point would be really good if at all you enter near
14:20 2870 or 2890 levels. All right. Thanks so much for that view. Just a standard disclosure on
14:26 any Adani-related conversations. This is a group or the NDTV group is owned by AMG, which is part
14:34 of the Adani group. We have to slip into a very quick break. We've got more questions lined up
14:39 on the other side. So do stay tuned.
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17:49 Welcome back. You're watching Ask Profit. Now let's dive into the queries again. Next one is on Paytm.
17:57 Now a very interesting counter Paytm has been. We have, I don't know the name of the viewer, but
18:05 Prem Lata. We have Prem Lata writing in on Paytm. He bought the stock probably during the IPO phase and
18:12 he bought it around 2000 levels. Should he continue holding the stock? Now we've seen certain
18:17 brokerages come out with their picks and Paytm has been one of them for 2024. Rahul, what views
18:25 do you have on Paytm? How do you see it going from here on? See definitely if the position is from the IPO time,
18:33 then there would be like larger pain and many like point came in the market where the average was suitable.
18:41 Although now also she can average out the position near 700 levels, but on the upside where the major
18:47 juncture of moving averages is there between 770 and 800 levels, there we might see some like resistance.
18:56 And I think till the time we don't cross 780 or might be 800 levels on weekly basis, there will be some kind of
19:04 a sideways move or major consolidation. But on the downside, I think 600 levels has given us like good support
19:13 in the past where the stock was declining and near the mid-December, we have seen that this stock has taken
19:20 good strong base near 600 levels. So I think she can average out the position to get the better average price
19:29 and as soon as it crosses 800 levels on the weekly basis, then there we can see some more positives
19:35 sticking coming on the technical charts. So I think she should wait more that already have you have given so much
19:42 time to the stock. So you should average it on the current levels and wait for the upside takes above 100.
19:48 Very quick view follow up on this Rahul, somebody who's bought, Barvin has bought at levels of 706, same stock.
19:56 What advice would you give to him? I think she should hold on the position.
20:00 We have seen 600 levels to act as a good support. So keeping like strict stop loss at 600 levels should be a good decision here
20:09 and she should wait out more. And as I said, 800 levels will be the resistance as soon as we get closing on the weekly basis
20:16 above 800, the stock should move towards 1000 plus levels.
20:20 Okay, Sneha, this one's for you. We've got a company called Bajil Projects, which apparently has been demerged
20:28 from Bajaj Electricals. We've got a viewer tuning in from Varanasi, Akshay, who's bought 100 shares at levels of 12.91.
20:35 The stock is now trading in triple digits. Do you have any specific view on the fundamentals?
20:41 If not, what advice can you give broadly on the space that it plays in?
20:46 It would be very difficult to give a view because I haven't really looked into it.
20:52 Okay, fair point. Let me try and get you a technical view, even though I must point out, Rahul, that Akshay has a 3 to 5 year view
21:01 and he's already making multi-bagger returns on this one. What should the advice be?
21:06 I think if you're making multiple returns, you should take some profit booking here
21:13 because this market scenario may turn out in the coming future to be in some kind of consolidation or minor correction.
21:22 So keeping that in mind, I think you should take some partial profit booking here.
21:27 Right. Next up, we have a question from GC Prakash K. He has written to us on YouTube and he's talking about two counters,
21:34 Birla Soft that he bought at 315 levels and Bharat Forge that he bought at 746 levels.
21:40 Rahul, on these two counters, hold or sell at this juncture?
21:45 I think both the counters deserve hold here, especially Birla Soft, which has given tremendous performance in past year.
21:52 I think there is some kind of consolidation, which we can see from past 10 sessions.
21:58 But there is a good base, which stock has formed near 680 levels, which should act as a strong support.
22:03 So keeping that in mind, you should continue your investment journey.
22:08 As soon as it travels beyond 740 levels, I think there will be a breakout on the technical charts,
22:14 which will turn out that Birla Soft may travel above 800 in coming days.
22:19 So keep your position on hold. And similarly on Bharat Forge, I'm quite bullish on the stock.
22:24 It has given good performance and there is continuous higher top, higher bottom formation on the technical charts.
22:30 And there is no reversal, which we can see. And there are indicators like RSI and MCD are also in favor.
22:36 So I think you should continue your position, keeping strict stop loss at 1200 rupees level for Bharat Forge.
22:42 We've got a question coming in from Surya. He's writing in from Bengaluru.
22:47 And he has said that this program is useful. Thank you so much for your kind words.
22:52 And I'm sure that the team will take this as positive to bring you a lot more in the future as well.
22:58 He's got a specific question on NHPC. And I'm coming to you on the fundamentals for this one, Sneha.
23:04 He's bought at levels of 55. So he's already making some gains, but he's planning to hold for the next three to five years.
23:10 Please guide on potential for revenue growth and EPS growth, as it is, he's saying, in his view, based on his research, is kind of low right now.
23:21 OK, definitely. So his analysis has been quite on the right path.
23:28 So basically, the company has got huge potential. The revenue potential is multifold, not only for NHPC, but even the other power companies.
23:39 So recently, if you have seen the power demand has been at its peak and it's going to further accelerate with the with the capex intensity picking up.
23:49 And secondly, the recent news flows, if you watch out for the companies has been constantly signing MOUs with various states.
23:57 So that would further keep the demand momentum ongoing. The valuations at the current levels, despite the strong up move, is still at very attractive levels.
24:08 So definitely one can hold on from a very long term perspective.
24:12 All right. Next up, we have a question from Rajesh and he's writing from Chennai.
24:17 He is talking about two power stock, REC and PFC. Sneha, we saw a little bit of a downturn in these two counters when these new tariff and power tariff norms came out last week.
24:30 They have got quite a profit there because they bought the stock at around 120 levels. Should they continue holding these stocks?
24:39 They should definitely continue holding the stocks because the impact of that increase in power tariff was a short term impact.
24:47 And if you look at the potential for these companies, as I mentioned, the power demand is at its peak and it's going to further accelerate.
24:56 So obviously, these lending companies would benefit as the central government has also given them the mandates.
25:06 I think we might just be having a bit of an issue. Sneha, you were saying something about REC, PFC.
25:12 OK, I think we might have lost that feed. We will get back to Sneha once she gets back to us on PFC, REC.
25:19 The next question I will take is from Abhishek Kaure, writing in from Solapur. And Rahul, I'll come to you on the chats because he wants to buy Trident at the current level for a period of one month.
25:30 What's the advice that you would give?
25:33 See, we have seen really good consolidation in Trident particularly and this particular week, I think today also, this stock is up by around 13 odd percent.
25:45 I think this is a breakout after a long period, which we have seen in this particular stock.
25:51 So I think in coming month also, it should perform if the market supports the good support levels, which he should definitely keep in the mind, will be at 37 or 36, which is a strong base.
26:05 So keeping that, he can definitely carry out the position.
26:08 I think the breakout, which is available on weekly charts should turn out and this particular stock has got good potential to reach around 56 to 60 levels, which will be the targets.
26:19 So I think definitely Trident is a good option to keep it in a one month time frame.
26:25 Right. We have Sneha back with us. Sneha, you were talking about REC and PFC. Please continue.
26:31 Yeah. So as I mentioned, the power demand is at its peak.
26:36 So obviously, these lending companies would benefit.
26:39 Moreover, the central government has also offered loans to the states to push reforms in the power sector.
26:45 So though there is a short term impact from the increase in the tariffs, the long term picture clearly remains quite positive, both for the power generators and also for the power lending companies.
26:59 So REC, PFC, after a sharp run up, there was a little consolidation that is ongoing, but the long term view remains intact.
27:10 All right. And that brings us to the end of this particular edition of Ask Profit.
27:14 To both Sneha as well as Rahul, thank you so much for joining in and answering all the questions that you did.
27:19 And viewers, we hope that whatever was discussed on this show was beneficial to you.
27:24 If we missed you out, it wasn't intentionally. And we will be back tomorrow to take all of your questions.
27:30 So do tune in at that time. Lots more coming up over the course of the day from Smriti and myself and the team that put the show together.
27:35 Thank you so much for watching. This is NDTV Profit.
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