"EGX70" يسجل أطول سلسلة مكاسب أسبوعية في شهرين ونصف
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00:00 We are talking about these closures for the Egyptian bonds.
00:03 Ms. Zwaail Aina, deputy head of Tyco, the administration of the insurance and investment bonds.
00:07 Welcome Ms. Zwaail and thank you for being here.
00:10 Let me start with this report related to JP Morgan.
00:14 We saw the review from 2021, it continued until 2023,
00:19 and its result was this exit of Egypt from the government bonds of the emerging markets.
00:25 Despite this, the market today avoided all these negative news and continued its positive movement,
00:31 specifically on the 70.
00:33 We are talking about the 13th week on the trend that the indicator is rising,
00:38 and it seems that these reports were not taken into account by the investor today in the market.
00:42 Indeed, this may show the strength of the upward trend in the Egyptian stock market.
00:50 This week we were exposed to two news that were enough to shake the market.
00:56 The first news at the beginning of the week was the issue of the 27% of the bank's and the Egyptian's personal bank's certificates.
01:03 This news was a big issue 4 or 3 years ago.
01:09 Yesterday, we also saw the news of the exit of the Egyptian bonds from JP Morgan.
01:15 Why did the market not affect? First, the strength of the upward trend that the market is in.
01:19 Today, people earn more than the interest of the bank and more than anything else, so they continue to deal with it.
01:26 The second thing is that we left the JP Morgan index not the first time.
01:30 We left it after January 2011, we stayed about 10 years abroad,
01:36 and we went back in 2021, and we are now going out again, and we may go back next year.
01:44 So, the exit and entry of JP Morgan is not affecting the reason.
01:47 Our percentage is very low, 0.5% or 6% out of 10%, so it is a very low percentage.
01:55 But it is a hindrance to issuing new bonds or new debts, and I say this is good, honestly, at the moment.
02:02 We do not need to issue new debts, we should think about the debt of old debts and their deficits,
02:08 especially in 2024, which is the highest year for us in terms of deficits and interest rates.
02:17 So, the exit and entry of JP Morgan at the moment has not affected it at all.
02:25 Okay, and maybe investors are wondering why the EGA70 is so strong at the moment,
02:31 as we mentioned, Mr. Zuael, we have the longest weekly earnings cycle on the EGX30 in three months.
02:40 Can it continue? And why this focus at this time?
02:44 As we said before, the earnings freeze the heart. Individuals earned a good amount of money in 2023,
02:55 so the heart froze and began to circulate more, the risk began to be accepted more.
03:00 We sometimes see that the share price fluctuated 20% up, and the next day 20% up, and it has a buying power,
03:06 which is 40% in two days, because people have earned profits that can be protected if there is a downturn or any shake,
03:12 that they lose their profits. This is what happened in the last period.
03:17 In addition to the fact that 70% of the market share, although we have reached 4.5 billion,
03:22 the majority of the market still has the individual shares. The individuals' trading is directed to EGX70,
03:28 and the small and medium-sized companies in large quantities.
03:32 We see that some companies are trading at 20%, a phenomenon that we have not seen before at all,
03:37 that 20% of the market share is up all the time, and the new trend is that the next day 20% up again.
03:42 This is a phenomenon that we have not seen before, and I say that the explanation of this phenomenon is that
03:47 the investors have earned profits, so the boom is solid, and therefore, even if they lose a part of the profits,
03:53 the transactions continue at a high risk.
03:57 We have seen that the levels of inflation at the annual level may have dropped in December.
04:05 Does this mean that the market is still in a good phase for investors?
04:10 Or that some fears may emerge, especially after the increases we have seen in the prices of electricity,
04:17 and that the meter may rise again, and thus, the investor will also be removed from the market?
04:25 No, we said two months ago with you here in Senebsiya Arabiya, that in the whole of 2024, the inflation will fall.
04:34 The difference is the year of the main, we are now comparing with the year 2023, which had the highest inflation in the history of Egypt.
04:41 It was in the year 2023, due to the rise in the dollar and global inflation.
04:46 We are an export economy, so we import two things, global inflation and the local dollar price, which is rising.
04:53 This has affected the prices of goods in 2023, so the comparison with 2024 will be a decrease throughout the year.
05:00 I want to tell the viewers that the word inflation itself means an increase.
05:07 When we say that the inflation rate is 10%, it means an increase of 10%.
05:11 It has fallen to 7%, which means an increase of 7%.
05:14 It has fallen to 5%, which means an increase.
05:16 People say that the rate is falling, but the prices are not falling.
05:20 The word inflation itself means an increase.
05:24 If I drive a car at 100 km/h, the speed of 50 km/h will decrease, but I will still be driving.
05:30 If the speed of 30 km/h decreases, I will still be driving.
05:34 That is why the rate of rise or fall in the inflation index is adjusted.
05:41 Who is the best investor today, Mr. Zouail?
05:44 The market, gold or the telecommunications certificates?
05:51 This is a very difficult question.
05:54 Everyone in Egypt is asking where they should invest their money.
05:58 Gold has risen significantly, real estate has risen significantly, the dollar has also risen significantly,
06:03 the interest rate of banks has increased by 27%, so people are confused.
06:08 But I say that the star of the window will remain in 2024, the Egyptian stock exchange.
06:13 Why? The problem of the dollar will be solved.
06:16 The dollar will not rise in the bank or in the market.
06:21 The dollar will rise again with the help of the Arab and foreign currencies.
06:26 Maybe now with the help of the Egyptian bonds.
06:29 But when the Arab and foreign currencies are close to each other,
06:33 not one dollar to the other,
06:35 meaning a difference of half a pound or a pound like it was before,
06:38 it will generate a lot of money for the Arab and foreign currencies.
06:41 This will also affect the continuation of the rise of the dollar in 2024.
06:44 That's why I say that the star of the window in 2024 will be the Egyptian stock exchange again.
06:49 Negotiations with the Crimean Bank could mess up the situation a little bit for the markets.
06:54 Or do you think what we are hearing from the statements from the MIA, from the bank itself,
06:59 and from the Egyptian government, that the negotiations are going well,
07:04 and are considered good news for the markets and investors?
07:10 There is a meeting from Egypt now in New York with the Minister of Finance,
07:14 the Central Bank Governor, the Minister of International Cooperation,
07:17 and there are meetings with the US Treasury Minister and the President of the International Monetary Fund.
07:21 The statements that came out are glad tidings.
07:23 There is a lot of support from the US administration for the Egyptian economy.
07:27 I expect that the agreement will be reached this month.
07:30 And based on it, I expect, and I expect again,
07:35 that the interest rate in the next meeting on February 1 will rise
07:39 to encourage hot money to enter the market again.
07:43 We will get a dollar amount to solve the crisis we are in now.
07:46 Besides, I expect that the dollar price will rise in the bank,
07:51 in a way that affects the market and makes it decrease.
07:55 It is also the result of the expected income after the loan of the fund.
07:59 Money will come from other sources.
08:01 This is what will lead to savings in the dollar income, not just the loan of the fund.
08:07 No, there are other sources that will start to enter the market,
08:10 and therefore, there will be savings in the dollar,
08:12 and the market will be positively affected at this time.
08:14 Thank you, Mr. Zoua El Anab, Deputy President of Tyco,
08:17 and the Governor's Office and Investment Fund.
08:19 You were with us from Cairo.
08:21 I'm here. I'll.
08:21 [MUSIC PLAYING]