- Can broader markets navigate risks in 2024?
- What's in store for IT going ahead?
- Are valuations a concern?
Niraj Shah in conversation with UTI Asset Management's Vetri Subramaniam on' Talking Point'. #NDTVProfitLive
- What's in store for IT going ahead?
- Are valuations a concern?
Niraj Shah in conversation with UTI Asset Management's Vetri Subramaniam on' Talking Point'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
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01:56 - Thanks for tuning into Talking Point.
01:58 I'm your host, Neeraj Shah,
02:00 and our guest today is Vetri Subramaniam.
02:02 He needs no introduction.
02:03 Vetri, great having you.
02:04 Thanks for taking the time out.
02:06 - I'm delighted to be here again on this channel.
02:10 It's been a long time,
02:11 but wishing you and everybody else great success
02:14 with this brand name.
02:15 It's good to see the brand name up and running again.
02:18 - Thank you.
02:19 And well, it's been a good,
02:20 it's been a long time for me to talk to you as well.
02:22 The last time that we spoke to you
02:23 you gave this very nice acronym, a very nice line.
02:27 I'm looking forward to some headline worthy stuff
02:30 from you today, none less anticipated,
02:32 but you know, be that as it may, Vetri,
02:34 what's, how do you feel about risk assets
02:38 at the start of this calendar
02:40 relative to what you would have felt
02:41 maybe in 2023 or 22?
02:43 - Well, what you feel is a function of, you know,
02:48 the position and the valuations
02:49 and what's actually happened over the course of the year.
02:53 And, you know, going into 2023,
02:55 I think most of the debate was around
02:58 when will the US experience a recession, not if.
03:02 And I think the biggest surprise of the year
03:06 has actually been the fact that
03:08 the US not only did not witness a recession,
03:11 it's actually navigated these high interest rates
03:14 fairly well.
03:15 And the markets were doing, you know,
03:18 pretty well through the course of the year.
03:19 It may have been a narrow rally,
03:21 but you know, when you see something like the NASDAQ,
03:23 which is, you know, behemoth in terms of
03:25 its market capitalization up 50% plus,
03:28 and then of course the S&P 500 as well up almost 20%,
03:32 you know, clearly it's been a very good year for risk assets.
03:35 To that extent, you know,
03:37 the valuation does leave you with a little bit of concern
03:40 as you start 2024,
03:42 not because of anything I can see in 2024,
03:45 but simply because of the fact that this move in the markets,
03:48 which is not driven by earnings,
03:50 but driven by a P multiple expansion,
03:53 automatically makes you slightly more vulnerable.
03:56 So I think that's the backdrop.
03:58 And just two other quick points to make,
04:00 I think the robustness of the US economy was one surprise.
04:04 The second surprise to some extent has been the fact that
04:07 Europe has navigated this whole energy crisis
04:11 over the last almost two winters extremely well.
04:15 Maybe global warming helped.
04:17 We know 2023 was, you know, the warmest year on record,
04:21 but be that as it may,
04:22 Europe has managed this energy shock quite well.
04:26 Here again, the US played a role.
04:27 I think US production of crude oil has surprised
04:30 to the upside and compensated for any supply cuts
04:33 that the OPEC might have brought about.
04:35 So I think these two factors perhaps sort of
04:38 were the unexpected events of 2023,
04:41 which helped markets higher.
04:43 But, you know, I think things look more challenging now
04:45 because of the valuations.
04:47 - Could, so actually that's the key point.
04:50 Yes, valuations are high.
04:52 Some would argue that valuations in Indian context
04:54 are always very high, but be that as it may,
04:56 valuations are a high veteran.
04:58 The point is, how do risk assets align themselves
05:02 to a higher than the previous normal on interest rates,
05:07 but in a calendar year where interest rates come off
05:12 and just give it a little bit of boost
05:13 to that risk sentiment if they do?
05:16 - Okay, great.
05:18 I think there are two, three points we need to think
05:20 through here, Neeraj.
05:21 One is, I think, you know, the era of 2000,
05:25 you know, let's say post GFC and post pandemic,
05:29 also all the way up to 2021 is now behind us.
05:32 This was an era where rates were close to zero
05:35 in the developed world.
05:36 This was an era where we had at peak
05:38 almost $18 trillion worth of bonds trading negative.
05:42 I think that era is now firmly behind us.
05:44 We are entering an era of, I think,
05:46 more normal monetary policy.
05:48 That's also because we are most probably entering an era
05:51 where inflation turns out to be more persistent
05:54 simply because economies are having to invest more
05:57 for the clean energy transition.
06:01 Supply chains are getting fragmented,
06:03 but there's also this thing of strengthening
06:06 national supply chains.
06:07 And as a result of that, you know,
06:09 you are introducing frictional costs
06:11 into the global economic system.
06:14 Finally, the developed world has discovered
06:17 that fiscal deficits can actually be a good thing.
06:20 Now, these are not good things for the very long,
06:23 but they have allowed their fiscal deficits
06:26 to expand and stay elevated.
06:28 I think all of this creates a backdrop
06:30 of higher inflation and higher interest rates.
06:33 So I don't see rates going back to the previous decade.
06:37 It maybe goes back to the decade, you know,
06:39 prior to 2008.
06:42 And that puts us in a very different trajectory.
06:46 From an equity market point of view, to be very precise,
06:48 what really matters is the differential
06:50 between the growth rates and cost of capital.
06:53 It's not just about cost of capital.
06:55 And when you look at that differential,
06:57 I think things look, you know, slightly more difficult,
07:01 not just for 2024,
07:03 but also in terms of the way we need
07:05 to think about the structure.
07:07 - Okay.
07:08 So how would you think about it, Vetri?
07:09 Please take your time,
07:11 but just tell us what would your mental model be
07:14 when you try and value equities
07:16 over the next two, three years,
07:17 assuming that the hypothesis that you're laying out
07:20 works out to the T?
07:22 - Sure.
07:25 I'm not going to talk about the global stuff
07:26 in that context.
07:27 I'd rather pivot back to just talking about India.
07:30 - Yeah.
07:31 - You know, I think when we look at the Indian scenario
07:34 and we look at everything that's going on in the economy,
07:36 I think a six, six and a half percent GDP growth rate
07:39 is the number which looks quite sustainable.
07:42 You know, I think one of the unique things
07:44 that we've seen develop over the last few years,
07:46 certainly this has been an outcome
07:48 of the flexible inflation targeting,
07:50 is that there's a lot more agreement
07:52 between government and the MPC
07:55 and alignment of policy
07:57 to make sure that inflation stays controlled.
08:00 So you may be talking about an economy
08:02 in which nominal GDP growth is about 11 to 12%.
08:06 We've seen profits as a percentage of GDP
08:08 move up quite sharply over the last three years.
08:10 You know, if you look at 2020 to 2023,
08:13 there's almost a 70% jump in profits of the nifty 50,
08:17 which has nothing to do with the change in GDP growth
08:19 because nominal GDP growth barely grew at five or 6%
08:22 during that period.
08:23 So you've had this huge, you know, profitability expansion.
08:27 It's still not reached the peak
08:29 in terms of profits to GDP,
08:31 but essentially I would submit that for profit growth
08:33 to be significantly ahead of GDP growth,
08:36 to my mind is not quite challenging.
08:38 Also, because we need to raise the level of investments
08:41 which are happening in the economy,
08:42 because we have some of those same issues
08:44 of having to invest for the future,
08:46 the climate transition, so on and so forth.
08:49 So be that as it may,
08:50 when I look at starting valuations today,
08:53 they do look slightly on the expensive side,
08:56 but I'd like to pass that further, Neeraj,
09:00 because when I look at the large caps,
09:03 they're expensive, but it's not nosebleed.
09:05 In fact, I would argue it's in the comfort zone,
09:08 but in the upper end of the comfort zone
09:10 above the long-term average.
09:12 I think where things to me look much more challenging
09:15 is actually in the mid-cap and small-cap space.
09:18 This is one of the unusual times in my career
09:20 where I actually look at valuations on the small-cap index
09:24 and find it to be at a premium to the large-cap index.
09:27 Now, I find this a little hard to digest.
09:30 Look, you know, we've got an economy
09:31 which has got good growth prospects
09:33 over the short to medium term,
09:35 but we've also got to think about risks,
09:37 and when risks emerge, as they will,
09:40 and they are unknown and they are uncertain
09:41 at this point of time,
09:43 we know that smaller companies are more vulnerable
09:46 to changes in interest rates,
09:48 to changes in business cycle, to changes in regulations.
09:51 They don't have the kind of management depth
09:53 that larger companies have,
09:55 and all of that is the reason why I would argue
09:57 they typically need to have valuations at a discount.
10:00 So risk appetite in India, to be very clear,
10:04 is actually a lot more elevated
10:06 than I would be comfortable with,
10:08 particularly when we talk about small and mid-caps.
10:10 Large-cap space is a slightly better scenario.
10:13 - Somebody made, I mean, it's a fair point, Vetri,
10:17 but I'm just wondering,
10:18 somebody made this point that valuation comfort
10:23 is in large caps,
10:24 but that's not necessarily where the India story is,
10:27 because a lot of sectors that are getting formed
10:30 in the last two, three years
10:32 don't necessarily have a large-cap presence.
10:34 So could it be that while the doubts
10:37 around the valuation of the broader index
10:40 continue to stay, because you're right,
10:42 it's kind of quote-unquote egregious,
10:45 but there are enough and more pockets within that
10:48 which are showing promising very strong growth
10:53 and could stay elevated at multiples
10:55 because the growth numbers will make up for it?
10:57 - So two points over there.
11:00 Look, I could always be proven wrong.
11:02 It won't be the first time I've been proven wrong.
11:04 Market is something which teaches you new lessons
11:06 all the time, but there are just two points
11:08 I'll make, Neeraj.
11:09 One is I don't go by stories.
11:11 I prefer to go by the facts.
11:13 The facts are we've never seen periods,
11:15 even going back to 2003, 2008,
11:18 which I would say was really sort of
11:19 one of the remarkable periods for the economy
11:22 in terms of expansion.
11:23 We didn't really see a pattern
11:25 where the small-caps could consistently navigate
11:29 dramatic changes in regulations,
11:31 changes in cycles, changes in global trade flows,
11:35 as well as the large-caps could.
11:37 So I would say the data doesn't back that premise.
11:40 The only way this premise would be proven true
11:43 is if we have this conversation two to three years out,
11:46 Neeraj, and I'm happy to come back,
11:48 and at that point of time, we actually see
11:50 that the small corporate sector has ended up
11:52 with better metrics than the larger corporate sector.
11:55 Now, if that were to happen,
11:56 obviously I would be proven wrong three years down the road,
11:59 but that's not the way I've seen things operate
12:01 in the past, either in India or in global comparables,
12:05 so I would be wary of taking that bet.
12:07 - That's a very strong point, viewers.
12:11 History may not repeat, but it often rhymes,
12:13 and I think you need to take lessons from history.
12:15 It's one of the key points that
12:18 Vitthal Subramanian is making right now,
12:19 keeping in mind the valuations
12:21 that the small-caps are trading at.
12:23 But he made some very interesting points
12:24 on the large-cap piece as well,
12:26 and we'll talk about all of this
12:27 on the other side of this very, very short break.
12:30 Stay tuned, we are in conversation
12:32 with Vettri Subramanian on Talking Point.
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14:20 Back with Talking Point on NDTV Profit
14:31 in conversation with Vettri Subramanian.
14:34 Vettri, just before I dwell into
14:38 what within the equities construct
14:41 might look appealing to you guys as a house,
14:44 I'm just inclined to understand from you
14:46 that while there is discomfort around
14:48 the broader end of the spectrum on the valuation front,
14:51 and you made this very interesting point
14:53 before the break about how history teaches us
14:55 that not all of these small companies
14:57 manage to do things very well
15:02 over a long period of time,
15:03 because relative to large-caps, if you will.
15:06 But I want to ask you about some of the pockets
15:10 which have caught the fancy of the investing world in India
15:14 and do not have a large-cap presence.
15:17 I mean, when we look at the whole push of railways,
15:20 for example, and Ashwini Vaishnav talking to us,
15:23 talking about how the second highest allocation
15:25 was to railways, and it's very likely
15:27 for the next few years that may continue to be the same
15:29 as India develops this space out, right?
15:32 What happens to pockets like these?
15:34 Because large companies have a subset
15:36 of their business within railways,
15:38 but there are really focused companies
15:39 where entire business model is on this,
15:42 and there is a government push for this.
15:43 It is just an example, but I want to start off with this.
15:46 - Sure.
15:48 Good question over there, and I would only submit to you
15:52 that also look at the fact that cycles do play out.
15:56 We've gone through a cycle where I think
15:58 this government has done a fabulous job
16:00 in terms of where the road program
16:02 has gone through Bharat Mala, which started in 2017.
16:06 Of course, you could say road building started
16:08 with the Golden Caterpillar many years ago,
16:10 but even it's instructive to look at where we are
16:13 over the last five to six years.
16:16 We've seen road building do very well
16:18 through various rounds of the Bharat Mala program.
16:20 I would say some of the companies executed well,
16:23 but also take a look at where their valuations are today.
16:28 You can go back and look at those valuations.
16:30 So the point is stocks do run up ahead
16:32 of the growth coming through,
16:34 but you can have two outcomes.
16:36 This time around, we've seen the case
16:37 in which some of these companies that have had good outcomes
16:40 in terms of managing their financials,
16:42 but as you go through the growth cycle,
16:44 then those company valuations tend to come off
16:47 rather than remain elevated.
16:49 And that's exactly what we've seen play out
16:51 in road construction companies,
16:53 which I would say is actually one of the unloved segments
16:56 of the market today.
16:57 So you've got to be careful about paying top dollar
17:00 for that.
17:01 The second thing that you need to be careful about
17:03 is again, go back and look at when
17:05 some of these large opportunities to invest
17:07 do come through.
17:09 Look at the infrastructure boom of the mid 2000s
17:11 that I talked about.
17:13 Now, at the point where the stories look very,
17:15 very attractive, the stocks did run up,
17:17 but a story is only as good as execution.
17:20 And wherever companies then faltered
17:23 in terms of their execution,
17:25 there was a very high price to pay
17:27 because many of those balance sheets
17:29 also ended up bloating up debt quite significantly.
17:32 So I completely agree with you.
17:34 There could be a few companies that turn out to be winners,
17:37 but that's different from saying an entire aggregate sector
17:41 shifted in terms of valuations.
17:42 And then you're ignoring the fact
17:44 that eventually it is execution
17:46 that converts a story into profits
17:49 and converts that into shareholder value creation.
17:52 Not every company is equal to the other
17:54 in terms of its ability to convert a story into profits.
17:58 You know, we're talking today when one of the,
18:01 you know, two large IT majors have reported results.
18:04 Just go back and look at the excitement in '99, 2000
18:07 in terms of IT and see how many of those companies
18:09 actually navigated what has been
18:11 one of the most fabulous growth stories in India
18:14 over the last 30 years of my career,
18:16 but how many of them actually pulled it off
18:17 over the next 10 years and survived
18:19 as being meaningful companies.
18:21 So I think it's the, you know,
18:23 separation of the men from the boys
18:25 that we need to worry about
18:26 when we talk about these things getting overpriced.
18:29 I don't mind one or two stocks trading at a premium,
18:32 but when a thing gets overpriced,
18:34 you know, light bulbs go off in my head.
18:36 - Wonderfully put, Vetri.
18:38 Thank you for this.
18:39 And viewers, there's so much to glean
18:41 from about investing per se,
18:43 from this one answer about, you know, railways,
18:46 but, you know, so many other sectors,
18:48 but I'm guessing, Vetri,
18:49 the same argument would probably extend
18:51 to a bunch of other sectors,
18:52 which as a basket are getting valued, right?
18:55 Maybe some bit of defense,
18:56 maybe some of the other spaces as well, right?
18:59 - Sure, I would just recommend to investors
19:02 to read up about how difficult defense execution is.
19:06 Actually, you can even find records of this
19:08 in our own history in India,
19:10 but you can also see it how companies struggle
19:12 to execute complex different projects
19:14 that involve bringing together and assembling products
19:18 from, you know, different parts of the world
19:19 when you read anything about the US defense industry.
19:22 There is a great opportunity there,
19:23 but I think, you know,
19:25 we will discover three to five years down the road
19:27 that there were only few managements
19:29 that could pull off execution of those complex projects.
19:32 - Got it.
19:33 Thanks, thanks, Vetri.
19:34 This is pure gold.
19:35 Okay, now the other aspect,
19:37 you spoke about the IT majors,
19:40 and there's a lot of flutter around what will happen
19:42 and why this excitement in IT,
19:44 wherein in December, Accenture has said,
19:46 "Okay, things are not necessarily looking all that great."
19:49 There's a little bit of excitement that came in post,
19:52 "These guys not doing as badly as maybe the street thought."
19:56 Now, not doing as bad,
19:58 is that good enough for people to be excited about a space
20:01 which might not have great discretionary demand
20:03 for the next six months at least?
20:05 - I think that's a valid perspective.
20:09 Look, I like the IT sector
20:10 and some of the companies there
20:11 purely because they've got fabulous business models,
20:14 they throw up cash.
20:16 You know, people talk about their growth slowing down,
20:18 but I will also equally argue,
20:19 look at how much they have to invest
20:21 to actually get that growth.
20:23 The ratio of the growth they get
20:24 related to the capital they invest is still quite fabulous.
20:27 So that's the way I look at it.
20:29 But I tend to agree with you,
20:31 to my mind, the growth trajectory
20:33 is still looking slightly challenging.
20:35 As I said, we like some of these companies bottom up
20:38 because they're globally comparative,
20:40 they throw out cash flow, cash generating machines.
20:43 But IT to my mind, you know,
20:45 is right now more a by the dips approach
20:48 rather than something that I really feel
20:49 very, very excited about.
20:51 Funnily enough, IT has actually outperformed
20:53 the benchmark over the last 12 months.
20:55 So maybe it's just come out of complete deep depression
20:58 into sort of, you know, more sort of normalcy.
21:01 I like the companies there,
21:03 but it's really one of my by the dips sector
21:05 than something that I feel hugely excited about.
21:08 - And is that sector slightly different
21:10 than the others, Vetri, in that the small caps out there
21:13 or the non-nifty names are not necessarily small caps.
21:16 They are experienced companies having ridden the cycle
21:19 very well as much as the infuse and the TCSs have done,
21:22 so to say, in terms of time, more or less.
21:26 So that's the first part of my question.
21:28 The second part of my question is a note
21:31 that I saw HSBC write,
21:33 wherein they make this point about ER and D stocks,
21:37 saying that their valuation multiples are elevated,
21:40 but because of the nature of the execution
21:42 that these guys are doing
21:44 and the growth rates that they are seeing,
21:47 maybe they deserve those elevated multiples.
21:49 So is there an exception that you would make
21:52 for elevated multiples in that whole bucket of ER and D?
21:55 So two part question here.
21:57 - Let me just roll it back.
22:00 I don't want to comment on that specific report
22:02 or that I'm not seeing.
22:03 - Sure, of course, of course.
22:04 - But let me just put it this way.
22:05 I think one of the things that we are clearly seeing in IT,
22:08 and this has just got to do
22:09 with the way the business is evolving,
22:11 is some of the mid-sized companies,
22:13 so therefore in that sense, their market cap is mid-cap,
22:16 but they don't have a legacy business,
22:18 which is declining at a very high rate of growth.
22:21 I think the challenge for some of the larger companies
22:23 is that they've got these new growth engines,
22:26 but they've also got a legacy business, which is declining.
22:28 So their growth outcomes are a function
22:30 of these two contradictory forces.
22:33 For some of the mid-sized companies
22:35 where there's no legacy business,
22:36 what you're seeing is a higher growth outcome
22:39 for the company, because they are more focused
22:41 on some of those business lines,
22:43 which are still going through
22:44 reasonably good customer momentum.
22:46 Second thing I would say about some of the non-mega-cap
22:50 IT companies is that they've got a track record
22:53 of demonstrating how they've navigated through cycles,
22:56 which to my mind, therefore, makes them very different
22:58 from some of maybe the other areas where there are stories,
23:01 but I don't have the ability to understand
23:04 managers' management capability
23:06 in terms of how they've navigated cycles before.
23:09 So I think there is a reason why some of those mid-caps
23:12 have traded up to a premium.
23:13 It's the lack of a legacy business
23:15 and fairly superior growth outcomes, why that's happened.
23:18 I can understand that.
23:20 I think this whole ER&D, if I just step back and say,
23:24 I think there is a line of business,
23:27 which is evolving within IT services,
23:29 which has got to do more with support to global R&D.
23:33 It's an interesting area.
23:34 It's an area we like.
23:36 And I think over there,
23:37 the growth rates can be much stronger.
23:39 And US companies are now in this domain,
23:43 discovering the benefits of outsourcing to India.
23:46 So again, that's an area where a slight premium
23:48 to traditional IT services may well be justified.
23:51 - Got it.
23:52 Petri, I have time for one more.
23:53 So instead of me tossing a theme at you,
23:55 I'm just trying to understand,
23:56 within this landscape,
23:57 wherein you find comfort in the larger names,
24:00 so on and so forth,
24:01 where is it that you personally believe
24:03 the next two years or three years,
24:05 or 12 months if 24 months is too long a timeframe
24:09 for the current volatile times,
24:10 where is it that you find comfort?
24:12 - Sure.
24:13 So great question.
24:14 And I'm glad you used the word comfort
24:16 because I always tell people,
24:17 I don't know what will happen in the next 12 to 24 months,
24:20 but I know the wicket I want to play in
24:21 because I play on the wicket,
24:23 the valuations give me comfort.
24:25 I like the big banks.
24:26 So in general, I like banking and financial services.
24:29 It's done nothing much through the past year,
24:31 but that's only made the valuations more attractive.
24:34 So that's a wicket I'm happy to play on.
24:37 Healthcare, pharmaceutical,
24:39 it actually had a fairly good year last year
24:41 in terms of outperforming the benchmark, the entire sector,
24:44 but I think it's still sort of attractively placed
24:47 in terms of how those companies are positioned.
24:50 So these are two sectoral or beta themes
24:52 that we feel positive about
24:54 and we've been talking about to people.
24:56 I'll also add one more out there with a caveat,
24:59 because you mentioned about new business models.
25:02 Now, in October last year,
25:04 we launched a innovation themed fund,
25:07 which invests in many of these new business models.
25:10 But let me be very clear,
25:11 it's not like we have valuation comfort over there.
25:14 We're just saying that maybe some of these companies
25:16 will emerge much bigger and stronger in the future.
25:19 So it's a strategy you might want to use
25:22 as a little bit of a sprinkling on top of your portfolio
25:25 and invest in that theme through a systematic manner.
25:29 It's not a great place for lump sum,
25:31 it's going to be a volatile journey,
25:33 but it could be an interesting area
25:34 to put some risk capital and sprinkle on your portfolio.
25:37 A bit of a VC option for a retail investor,
25:40 if you will, Vetri?
25:42 Well, not VC because these are listed companies,
25:45 but it plays to the productivity gains
25:49 that B2C internet based businesses are able to deliver,
25:53 it plays to the space,
25:55 it plays to some of the companies
25:57 involved in climate transition
25:59 and in terms of support of global R&D.
26:02 Great.
26:03 Vetri Subbaramaniam, such a pleasure talking to you.
26:05 Pity we do it only once a year,
26:07 would love to have you more,
26:08 but thank you for taking the time out
26:09 and doing this at the start of calendar year 24 nevertheless.
26:13 Great, look forward to doing it
26:14 more than once a year, Neeraj.
26:16 Thank you so much, Vetri,
26:17 and viewers, thanks for tuning in.
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31:38 - Friday's rally extends to Monday.
31:50 Benchmark scale, fresh highs
31:52 for a second day.
31:54 Sensex starts the week above 73,000.
31:57 Mark and Nifty soars to 22,000.
32:00 Broader markets remain firm.
32:05 Mid-cap and small caps open in the green.
32:08 Meanwhile, Nifty IT skyrockets over 3%,
32:11 followed by Realty and PSU Banks.
32:14 On the other side, Farmers under-performance.