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00:00 How do you feel about humankind?
00:03 What would you mark us out of ten for impressiveness, ingenuity, integrity, advancement?
00:09 And could you imagine that there could be something better than us, dwelling somewhere
00:14 in the universe?
00:15 In this video, we'll first take a look at the knowledge arc - a theoretical construct
00:20 that we could one day discover as proof of something higher.
00:24 Then we're asking, what if we're the product of a higher mind?
00:28 What if we've already found a superior lifeform?
00:31 And finally, we'll more closely investigate the chances of intelligent life in general,
00:36 including our own.
00:38 This is Unveiled, and today we're answering the extraordinary question; is there an advanced
00:42 civilization above humans?
00:46 Do you need the big questions answered?
00:48 Are you constantly curious?
00:49 Then why not subscribe to Unveiled for more clips like this one?
00:52 And ring the bell for more thought-provoking content!
00:54 When a civilization grows, it acquires a wealth of information.
01:02 And its continued success is based on how effectively it can use that information to
01:06 advance.
01:07 But most civilizations also want to preserve themselves - to lay down markers that say
01:12 to anyone else in the future that "we were here".
01:15 If you could make a record of everything you know, how would you do it?
01:28 Write it down, perhaps?
01:30 Or video blog your life story?
01:32 And what if you needed a record of everything all your friends and family members knew,
01:36 as well?
01:37 It's a difficult task, as seemingly advanced human beings we all carry a lot of information.
01:42 So now imagine what would be required to chart the knowledge of the entire human civilization.
01:48 Of everyone alive at this moment, with every current human being having been influenced
01:52 by every past human being that had come before them.
01:55 It's a Herculean prospect, but that's what a knowledge arc does.
02:00 A knowledge arc is a means to collect knowledge and information on a spectacularly large scale.
02:05 It also goes by the considerably more ominous-sounding name, a doomsday arc.
02:10 Because it's a concept wrapped up in end-of-the-world prophecies and apocalypse scenarios, the general
02:15 idea is that a knowledge arc could survive even when the civilization that built it cannot.
02:21 And then, because it survived, it can be discovered by something, anything, in the future.
02:26 If humans started building a knowledge arc today, what form would it take?
02:30 And what sorts of things would be put into it?
02:33 It could demand a massive physical space if it contained physical photos, books, and artefacts.
02:38 But it could also be much smaller if it was digitized onto a database.
02:42 Most likely, it would be something halfway between the two.
02:44 A part physical, part digital bank of everything.
02:48 The Svalbard Global Seed Vault is one of our most prominent real-world examples of something
02:53 like this.
02:54 But even it is limited to only the seeds and crops that it stores.
02:57 A truly all-encompassing arc would be the seed vault, plus copies of every book ever
03:01 written, plus complete records of art, languages, and technology, plus DNA records for every
03:07 organism on the planet.
03:08 It might never be complete.
03:10 Such is the immeasurable amount of information it would need to contain.
03:14 But if a future alien species discovered it, they'd certainly know all about us.
03:18 So, what if the opposite happened?
03:21 What if we were to discover a knowledge arc built by another civilization?
03:25 It would surely go down as one of the most momentous days in our history.
03:29 There are two main ways this scenario could play out.
03:32 Either we discover an alien arc on planet Earth, or we discover one somewhere else in
03:36 the universe.
03:37 The first causes us to rethink what we thought we knew about our own planet.
03:41 The second proves to us without question that we are not alone.
03:45 A knowledge arc on Earth is perhaps the least likely of these two hypothetical scenarios.
03:50 In the twenty-first century, humans are fairly confident that they understand how their planet
03:55 works.
03:56 We have a reasonably robust origin of life story, and we've mapped the vast majority
04:00 of landmasses.
04:01 We still haven't explored the majority of our oceans, though.
04:05 And while we're reasonably sure of what a cross-section of Earth looks like, we've
04:08 never ventured underground in a big way.
04:11 In general, it might be said that we as a species prefer to look outwards, rather than
04:15 inwards.
04:17 If, then, a knowledge arc were to be hiding on Earth, perhaps underground under the sea
04:21 would be the best place to look for it.
04:23 But such a discovery would still shatter most of everything we've ever believed about
04:28 our world.
04:29 An arc somewhere else in space, however, presents a different problem.
04:33 It would still be a groundbreaking discovery, but as so much of space is unknown to us,
04:38 it wouldn't require quite such a dramatic rethink.
04:41 The arc might be found on an alien planet at a future time, when humans have long-distance
04:45 space travel capabilities.
04:47 In this case, it would reveal to us that that particular planet was habitable in the past
04:51 and could be habitable in the present, as well.
04:54 Naturally, we'd focus all our astronomical attention on the arc world, trying to determine
04:59 its age, when it hosted life, if it still hosted life, and whether it had any other
05:04 similarities with Earth.
05:05 Today, we only have one life-hosting planet sampled to study - our own.
05:10 But now we'd have another, and it could fundamentally change our outlook.
05:15 It could change even what it means to be human.
05:18 Another sci-fi-style possibility is that a knowledge arc could be moving through space,
05:23 between worlds and galaxies.
05:25 Here the arc more closely resembles a ship, carrying the information it contains away
05:29 from its homeland and to who knows where.
05:32 In many ways, proposed "generation ships" double up as knowledge arcs.
05:37 These are massive, hypothetical vehicles designed so that their crew lives and dies on board.
05:43 They travel at speeds far slower than the speed of light, but still hope to bridge huge
05:47 distances.
05:48 It just takes them a lot longer.
05:50 Regardless, they're usually seen as the last bastions of their home civilization.
05:55 And those on board are the last remaining few who can spread their knowledge.
05:58 They're the curators of their own history, and the preservers of their own tradition
06:02 - whether it's future humans venturing forth, or ancient aliens waiting to be found.
06:08 So, what would the global reaction be if we discovered any of these arc types, with either
06:12 an alien presence on board or proof of aliens that once were?
06:16 If we found one tomorrow, there'd no doubt be disbelief at first.
06:21 And currently has zero confirmed evidence of anything extraterrestrial, let alone a
06:26 whole ship's worth of information.
06:28 So, the arc would immediately dominate news headlines, but it could all prove too much
06:33 for us to process.
06:34 As with most sudden, dramatic changes on a worldwide scale, chaos could take hold as
06:39 millions rush to make sense of proven alien life.
06:42 And millions more wish that it wasn't so.
06:45 The discovery would rock the foundations of science, but also religion, art, philosophy
06:51 and literature.
06:52 It would be so big that humanity, in discovering it, will have arrived at a decisive moment
06:57 in its own story.
06:59 A point from which we would think of time as being either before the arc or after it.
07:04 What do you think you would do?
07:06 How do you think you would react?
07:07 The 'Oumuamua object gave us a small sense of what the human response could be when it
07:12 was discovered in 2017.
07:14 'Oumuamua is the first known interstellar object to have been tracked passing through
07:19 our solar system, and scientists have long debated its bizarre, cigar-like shape.
07:25 While many suspect that it's a natural rock or ice formation, some suggest that it could
07:29 be a form of alien technology.
07:32 Perhaps a probe tentatively scanning the solar system?
07:35 Or perhaps a ship itself?
07:37 Could it be a knowledge arc?
07:39 When 'Oumuamua was first spotted, it was passing relatively close to the sun, but it's
07:43 been moving farther away ever since.
07:46 It isn't caught in solar orbit, and will eventually leave our solar system to continue
07:50 through the Oort Cloud and interstellar space.
07:53 In all likelihood, we will never see it again.
07:55 Unless, of course, it is alien technology.
07:58 And it decides to return.
08:00 Either way, as far as we know, it isn't a knowledge arc.
08:03 It's just an unusually shaped object that just so happened to be passing through our
08:07 part of the universe.
08:09 And yet it earned headlines around the world, captured the attention of millions of people,
08:14 and has been a hot topic in science and astronomy circles ever since.
08:17 Imagine what would have happened if it had been a knowledge arc.
08:21 As humankind grows and as the Earth changes, we may begin to make more of a collective
08:26 effort to record all that has happened over the last few hundred thousand years of history.
08:31 If an alien civilization is out there, or was ever out there, it might well do the same.
08:37 And if our two existences ever crossed paths, then we've reached a higher plane of understanding.
08:42 We will have opened up another level of the universe.
08:47 Do you ever wonder why it is that we're here?
08:52 How did it come to pass that we should be living and breathing on Earth, going about
08:55 our daily lives?
08:56 Thinking, feeling, laughing, crying, and everything else in between?
09:00 The question of our existence is one that has always intrigued the human mind, fascinating
09:05 and frightening us in almost equal measure.
09:08 But what if all of this is really just a construct of a much higher power?
09:23 As arguably the most famous theorised model for advanced civilization there is, the Kardashev
09:28 Scale needs little introduction.
09:30 But we're going to zoom through the basics, to recap, just in case.
09:34 First proposed by the Soviet astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev in the 1960s, it means to
09:39 measure the advancement of civilizations based on the amount of energy they could theoretically
09:44 harness.
09:45 The original Kardashev Scale had three levels, or types.
09:49 A Type One civilization can harness all the energy of its home planet.
09:52 For Type Two, it's all the energy of its home star system.
09:56 And for Type Three, it's all the energy of its home galaxy.
10:00 Later versions of the scale, however, added a Type Four, which is all the energy of the
10:04 universe, and also a Type Five, which is what we're most interested in today.
10:09 Accepting that a Type Five civilization could exist requires many moves away from the more
10:14 conventional ways of understanding reality.
10:17 That's because a Type Five can harness all the energy from multiple universes.
10:22 In other words, it holds all the energy of the multiverse.
10:26 Briefly put, the multiverse is the idea that this universe isn't the only universe in
10:30 existence.
10:32 It may well be crammed full of planets and stars and galaxies and everything we've
10:36 ever known.
10:37 But the general multiverse theory says that there are many more just like it.
10:41 And a Type Five on the Kardashev Scale is a civilization so advanced that it exists
10:46 on a high enough plane to see and access all of it.
10:50 In our minds, a Type Five is akin to a god.
10:53 It's all-seeing and all-powerful.
10:56 And while there are some theories that the Kardashev Scale could be extended further
10:59 still to Type Six and beyond, for this video we're imagining there's nothing else above
11:05 five.
11:06 Reach that point and you truly have completed the game of not just life, but reality.
11:12 What would a Type Five's existence mean for us, though?
11:15 Humans are usually calculated as having reached just 0.7 on the Kardashev Scale to get to
11:20 this point.
11:22 We haven't even fully mastered our own planet yet, and according to some more cynical worldviews,
11:27 we might never get past Kardashev Type One.
11:30 Type Five will always be almost incomprehensibly far away from us, then.
11:35 So much so that some theories suggest that we could be under its control.
11:41 The shape and form of a Type Five is something that no one can really agree upon.
11:46 In that way, it's again like how we tend to picture gods.
11:50 In most basic pop culture depictions, gods are shown as though they exist above the clouds,
11:55 taking up a position that mere human eyes can never get to see.
11:59 And from there, they're able to pull the strings of life on Earth.
12:03 But it's also often said that God is all around us, or inside us.
12:08 There's a metaphysical quality to God, as though divine entities exist outside of the
12:13 conventional laws of physics, time and matter.
12:16 Again, a similar description could be given to a Type Five being.
12:21 They don't so much have to obey the laws of physics or nature; they are the laws of
12:26 physics and nature.
12:28 We can quite confidently say, then, that if a Type Five does exist, then humans will likely
12:34 never recognise it for what it is.
12:36 The distance between us and the top of the Kardashev Scale is just too vast.
12:42 But if we look hard enough, might we find hints to its existence?
12:46 In some ways, this is what we're trying to do whenever we search for alien life.
12:50 So far, across all of human history, there's no record of any life other than the life
12:54 on this planet.
12:56 But were we to finally discover an extraterrestrial presence somewhere, then we'd know that our
13:01 way isn't the only way.
13:02 We'd know that other civilisations, and other civilisation types, were without a doubt
13:07 possible.
13:08 It's why, should we ever find one alien world, many scientists predict that we would
13:12 more quickly find a second, a third, and more.
13:16 Our understanding, at least, of our place in the universe will have moved up a level,
13:20 which would force our technological development to catch up, to push us into the higher brackets
13:24 of the Kardashev Scale.
13:26 Then the thinking would be, if we can get to Type One or Type Two, then why not Types
13:31 Three, Four, or even Five?
13:33 The fabled fifth level would seem to us much less of a, well, fable.
13:38 Instead, it would feel like a goal waiting to be achieved.
13:41 Sure, it could take us literally billions of years to get there, and we might need to
13:45 change our physical being in the meantime… but we'd more firmly believe that it was
13:50 possible.
13:51 But for now, we still haven't discovered alien life, nor any civilisations that are
13:56 more or even less advanced than our own.
13:58 So, where else could we go hunting for glimpses of a Type Five truth?
14:03 We could try searching for the equivalent of the miracles that feature so prominently
14:07 in some religions.
14:08 Or, we could await with faith the arrival of some sort of Type Five disciple or prophet
14:14 onto Earth itself.
14:15 A Type Five being would absolutely be capable of travelling anywhere within the multiverse…
14:21 and wherever it was, it would always hold the total knowledge of the multiverse within
14:25 itself.
14:26 If, for some reason, it chose to manifest all of that into human form, then we'd have
14:30 our prophet.
14:32 Whether or not the rest of humankind would believe someone who claims to have come from
14:36 a Type Five world, though, is an altogether different matter.
14:39 Failing that, miracle-like events could be our only real sign that our Type Five overlords
14:45 were watching.
14:46 But, even then, would we humans really know or understand when a miracle was happening?
14:51 Say a Type Five power generously redirected an asteroid on the outskirts of Andromeda
14:57 so that it was no longer in line to strike us… we'd never realise that the momentous
15:01 event had never taken place.
15:03 Equally, were a Type Five to have stepped in behind the scenes at the time of the Big
15:07 Bang to ensure that conditions were just right for, say, oxygen on Earth… then we'd simply
15:13 never know that that had ever happened.
15:15 These things would all be taking place many planes of reality above our own, and would
15:20 therefore fail to register down here on our lonely planet.
15:24 But, finally, if our continued existence really was reliant on the far-off actions of a higher
15:30 power, then what if those actions were to grind to a halt?
15:33 What if the miracles stopped?
15:35 Perhaps the scariest part of imagining a Kardashev Type Five is the realisation of just how insignificant
15:41 Earth and human beings probably are to it.
15:44 Consider that there could be trillions of planets in our universe, and that this universe
15:49 would be one of many under its power… then why would it pay particularly close attention
15:54 to us at all?
15:56 Why should we ever hope to find proof of a Type Five's existence when we amount to
16:00 just a single grain of sand along the endless beach of its own reality?
16:05 If we are the creation of a Type Five civilization, then our insignificance could ultimately be
16:11 revealed.
16:12 First, that creator will have created so much before and since us that they may never look
16:17 in our direction again.
16:19 In their minds, our planet is buried beneath billions of others, kept in a universe amongst
16:25 millions more, and irretrievable unless there was ever a particular reason to dig it back
16:30 out again.
16:31 Second, while we generally consider life on Earth to be special, given that it's the
16:35 only life we ourselves know about, that more than likely wouldn't be the case at Type
16:40 Five.
16:41 And the 300,000 years or so of the modern human could feasibly amount to a footnote
16:47 on a footnote in their own records.
16:49 Unless, of course, the opposite is true, and life is so rare and unique that our universe
16:56 holding our planet is actually treasured by Type Five.
16:59 It's certainly a more optimistic view to take.
17:02 Perhaps what's really happening is they peer down upon us, they see us chiselling
17:07 out our unlikely existence within an infinite multiverse, and they're filled with hope.
17:13 Hope that one day we might learn enough to join them at the top table of reality.
17:18 If and when that day comes, remember that you heard it here first.
17:26 For decades now, the hunt has been on to find other civilizations in the universe.
17:32 And while we still know of only one place that definitely hosts life, our own planet
17:38 Earth, we've gradually scanned more and more of the cosmos in the hope that, one day,
17:44 we'll pick up signals of a different existence, a new world, and perhaps a far more advanced
17:52 existence than our own while we're at it.
18:05 According to the original Kardashev scale, a Type Three civilization is one which has
18:10 harnessed the entire energy potential of a galaxy.
18:14 But as Kardashev originally imagined it, Type Three was the best there was, the pinnacle
18:20 of advancement and cosmic civilization.
18:23 It's a bizarre concept to think on, because if it is possible to become a Type Three civilization,
18:31 then there are a couple of important considerations to make.
18:35 First, it theoretically means that we, humankind, could one day climb the scale far enough to
18:42 become Type Three ourselves.
18:45 Second, it theoretically means that there should already be Type Three civilizations
18:51 out there, and if there are, then why not one that's ruling over the very galaxy that
18:58 we call home, the Milky Way, or one that's ruling over the next galaxy along, Andromeda?
19:06 The Kardashev model also provides an alternate lens through which scientists and astronomers
19:11 can consider the entire universe, though, as they comb it for signs of life.
19:16 As such, there have been various claims made that perhaps a Type Three power has already
19:23 been discovered by us, although nothing at this stage is confirmed.
19:28 In August 2021, news broke of a joint study by astronomers at the National Astronomical
19:34 Observatories of China and Leiden Observatory in the Netherlands.
19:38 Headlines claimed that it may have identified two candidates toward a Type Three civilization.
19:45 The study focused on 21 galaxies in all, paying particularly close attention to their mid-infrared
19:52 emissions, which it suggested, if they're high, could be a sign of Dyson Spheres operating
19:59 in the region.
20:00 The idea is that Dyson Spheres, huge hypothesized structures built around stars to siphon off
20:07 their energy, should inevitably give off waste energy, too, which can then be picked up by
20:14 researchers here on Earth.
20:16 As a Dyson Sphere is said to be a key feature in any advanced Kardashev civilization from
20:22 Type Two onwards, if we were to find hard proof of their existence, then we'll essentially
20:29 have discovered not just alien life, but super-intelligent alien life.
20:35 Importantly, however, those behind the study aren't yet claiming to have definitely discovered
20:41 Type Three civilizations.
20:43 They've only narrowed down their original search of the sky toward two galaxies that
20:49 might be Type Three candidates.
20:52 Nothing is proven, and nothing beyond some seemingly unusual mid-infrared measurements
20:58 has ever been detected.
21:00 For some, then, this could soon become just another false alarm.
21:05 What's interesting, though, is that for one co-author of the 2021 study, Professor Michael
21:11 Garrett of Leiden University, it wasn't the first time in recent years that potential
21:16 Type Three groups had been discussed.
21:18 It's just that last time, the takeaways were a little different.
21:23 Back in 2015, Garrett took a closer look at some other Kardashev candidate, and reportedly
21:29 dismissed all of them as being the real thing.
21:33 Back then, with most of those candidates being explained away as natural and non-alien-made
21:39 phenomena, Garrett had concluded that Kardashev Type Three civilizations are either very rare
21:46 or do not exist in the local universe.
21:49 And while the most recent 2021 study has served to reopen the possibility that they do exist,
21:56 the opinion that Type Three civilizations don't exist, or at least that they don't
22:01 exist anywhere remotely close to us, is still held by many academics.
22:06 In some ways, it boils down to a heightened version of that other pillar of modern astronomical
22:12 thinking - the Fermi Paradox.
22:15 Only while the Fermi Paradox asks "If aliens exist, then where are they?"
22:21 We're now asking "If Type Three civilizations exist, then where are they?"
22:29 Because surely we'd have discovered them by now, and with relative ease, given the
22:34 size and scope of their powers.
22:36 Remember, a Type Three group has the energy output of an entire galaxy at their disposal.
22:42 In the Milky Way, which is a fairly average-sized galaxy, that would mean more than 100,000
22:49 light-years worth of stars, planets, black holes, quasars, and general energy potential.
22:56 How would that not show up on even the most primitive of the telescopes we have?
23:01 As with so many other deep ponderings of the universe, one answer is that it's because
23:06 space is incredibly, almost unimaginably big.
23:11 And then there's also the fact that when astronomers look far enough into space, thanks
23:17 to the universal speed limit of the speed of light, they're also essentially seeing
23:23 back in time.
23:25 Whenever we view a star or planet or galaxy, it's not as though we're viewing it at
23:30 the same moment in time as that which we're experiencing here on Earth.
23:35 Instead, we're merely viewing it as it was when the lights that we see now first left
23:41 it, and that could have been millions or even billions of years ago.
23:46 And when you think about it, that means that if we ever were to discover a Type 3 civilization,
23:54 then in real time, our time, it might have progressed far beyond that stage already.
24:00 Which is another reason why many believe that Type 3s just don't exist, because the odds
24:07 are that they shouldn't even be waiting to be discovered, but in fact, should just
24:12 be, from our point of view.
24:14 Of course, this also means that whenever we look into the sky, even with the most powerful
24:20 telescopes available to us, our eyes could well be passing over galaxies that do now
24:26 host Type 3 civilizations.
24:28 It's just that there hasn't been time enough yet for that information to reach us.
24:33 In fact, if you believe that there are other civilizations out there, and that it's therefore
24:39 very unlikely that we are more powerful than all of them, then perhaps a Type 3 is inevitable,
24:46 and again, we on Earth are just waiting to realize it.
24:51 We could, then, be currently surrounded by higher powers to some degree, gradually approaching
24:57 the day when a scientific study does prove it beyond doubt.
25:02 At present, however, that's not what has happened.
25:05 Scientists haven't already discovered a Type 3 civilization, although Type 3 candidates
25:10 have emerged in recent times.
25:13 The 2021 study has identified at least two galaxies that may warrant greater scrutiny,
25:20 but so far, we have only a tiny amount of unusual data to work from.
25:26 Theories continually abound on both sides of the debate, though, and while one researcher
25:31 might insist that advanced galactic civilizations must exist somewhere in the universe, another
25:37 might claim that they can't possibly exist, simply by the fact that we don't already know
25:43 about them.
25:44 What's your verdict, and what would your reaction be if a Type 3 group were ever to be found?
25:50 There'd certainly be no denying that our own identity will have been forcibly shifted.
25:55 On the day that a Type 3 is revealed to us, human beings will have altered in their own
26:01 minds from being an intelligent species to one that has so much more left to learn.
26:08 Perhaps that's a frightening thought, or an exciting one.
26:12 Perhaps it could lead to our own expansion, or it could trigger an existential domino
26:18 effect toward our own demise.
26:21 In either case, for now, it's a hypothetical thought only.
26:25 Scientists, astronomers, academics, and all manner of others are increasingly on the lookout
26:32 for Type 3 civilizations.
26:34 But for better or worse, we haven't already discovered one.
26:43 With every passing year, humans on Earth launch various missions to other planets to learn
26:48 more about the solar system.
26:50 Meanwhile, on the ground, astronomers are scanning the skies for potential signs of
26:54 life in the universe.
26:56 If we one day discover an intelligent, alien existence, it'll constitute one of the greatest
27:00 scientific moments of all time.
27:03 But what if it's impossible from the beginning to better human beings?
27:16 The famous Drake Equation, created in 1961 by Dr. Frank Drake, aims to predict the possible
27:22 number of technological civilizations there are in our galaxy and universe.
27:26 The problem, though, is that answers to it vary.
27:29 Wildly.
27:30 To reach a solution, we need to know the number of possible Earth-like planets there are,
27:34 with the right conditions for life; then the fraction of those planets that actually do
27:39 develop life; then the fraction of those lifeforms that become intelligent; and then the fraction
27:44 of those intelligent lifeforms that develop interstellar communication and reach a comparable
27:49 level to humankind.
27:50 The criteria is strict, but the numbers to input are vague… and that makes the Drake
27:55 Equation extremely challenging, nay impossible, to solve right now.
27:59 For today's question especially, we're then hindered by our own almost certainly
28:03 limited human perspective, unable to conclusively determine what would count as more advanced
28:08 than us.
28:09 We can't really know how advanced life can become yet for a few reasons.
28:13 First, how rare is it for non-living matter to become alive?
28:17 This is known as abiogenesis, and refers to the origin of life and how organic compounds
28:22 manage to form the very first life… and it's an area of study still quite poorly
28:26 understood.
28:27 There are a number of theories, some more convincing than others, but no one knows exactly
28:32 how life initially began, even just on Earth.
28:34 Then, there are the problems and pitfalls of evolution.
28:37 We know that it's taken billions of years for everything that's alive on this planet
28:41 right now to get to this point; that it's an incredible, but also incredibly slow, process.
28:46 But some theories argue that life more advanced than humans will have had to have developed
28:50 over an even greater period of time.
28:53 Generally speaking, though, that's not much of a problem for the universe as a whole.
28:56 Sure, it's taken 4.5 billion years for modern life to arrive on Earth, but the universe
29:01 itself is some 13.8 billion years old.
29:05 There's time and then some for life to have developed elsewhere, then.
29:08 And if more time really does equate to more advanced beings - which it may or may not
29:13 - then there could be creatures on planets out there with more than twice what humans
29:16 and the Earth have to work with… meaning many, many more advanced civilizations than
29:21 our own.
29:22 It almost certainly isn't as simple as all that, though.
29:25 For one, the timescale for the development of human civilization really depends on where
29:29 you start from; the creation of Earth, billions of years ago; the first appearance of ancient
29:34 hominins, millions of years ago; the development of agriculture, thousands of years ago; or
29:39 someplace else.
29:41 Civilizations could well advance at differing rates, too - some slower and some faster than
29:45 humans.
29:46 Meanwhile, there's a concept known as the "Great Filter" to contend with, offering
29:50 another explanation as to why space doesn't already appear to be creaking with intelligent
29:55 life - despite the apparently vast statistical probability that there is other life out there.
30:00 While the Fermi Paradox asks "Where are all the aliens?", the Great Filter answers
30:04 that there has to be a particular step in the development of life that's so rare that
30:08 it almost never happens, or that it happened just once for our own case.
30:13 It's a theoretical concept dialing down on whatever it is that seemingly prevents
30:17 intelligent life from becoming common in the universe.
30:20 There are a number of suggestions as to what this preventative structure could be.
30:23 The chances of abiogenesis occurring anywhere could just be astronomical, or the chances
30:28 of life developing and surviving for so long could be miniscule.
30:32 Or there's the possibility that despite abiogenesis and evolution, all civilizations
30:36 inevitably destroy themselves when they become too intelligent - and that's why we haven't
30:40 found aliens yet; they've all killed themselves off.
30:43 It's also why many are concerned that various human activities will soon bring about our
30:47 own demise.
30:48 We could be falling into the same trap, where our apparent intelligence becomes our downfall.
30:53 The problem again, though, is that we only have one data point to go from - ourselves
30:57 and nothing to compare us to.
30:59 So, while it's wholly unlikely that we're the most advanced civilization there is, it's
31:04 also not impossible.
31:05 Similarly, we can't reliably say how long a civilization lasts once it becomes advanced,
31:10 either.
31:11 We're obviously still here, but that's all we know.
31:14 We, humankind, might've completed the Great Filter already, or we could still be passing
31:18 through it, destined to one day disappear for whatever reason other advanced, hypothetical
31:23 civilizations apparently have done.
31:25 The outlook is either promising or really rather bleak.
31:28 But, whatever the case, it adds another strand to this thought experiment; where humans could
31:32 not only be the most advanced civilization right now, but also of all time - across the
31:37 universe's entire history.
31:39 Logic says that one civilization has to rank as the most advanced ever, so what if we're
31:44 it?
31:45 After all, from our perspective, there aren't currently any other candidates.
31:49 Could we really be that unique?
31:51 Well, as fun - or, frankly, terrifying - as it might be to imagine that humans are the
31:55 most intelligent living thing there ever was, it's also extremely, extremely unlikely.
32:00 At this stage, we can't even be totally sure that we're the first advanced beings
32:04 on Earth.
32:05 We've yet to find proof of any life outside of Earth, and given that when we observe other
32:09 stars, planets and galaxies in the sky, we're actually seeing them as they were however
32:14 many light-years in the past, if we ever did find signs of alien life, we'd only ever
32:18 be seeing it as it was in its own ancient history.
32:21 Bearing all of that in mind, there have been various studies to calculate just how special
32:25 - or not special - we truly are.
32:28 For example, one 2016 study by the physicist Adam Frank argued that the only way humans
32:33 could be the first technologically advanced species in the history of the universe is
32:37 if the odds of a civilization developing on habitable planets were less than one in ten
32:42 billion trillion.
32:43 But most predictions have the chances of life as much higher than that.
32:47 A 2020 study led by a team at the University of Nottingham, for instance, argued that there
32:51 could be as many as 211 actively communicating civilizations right now, in just our own Milky
32:57 Way galaxy.
32:58 If that's true, then human life, while still special, isn't unique, and could even be
33:03 primitive compared to some of the others.
33:05 Almost all calculations of this kind, however, depend at some point on how you apply the
33:09 Drake Equation - all of it, or part of it - which we know is open for interpretation,
33:14 bias and inaccuracy.
33:16 According to one multi-authored study in 2018, for example, titled "Dissolving the Fermi
33:21 Paradox", humans really could be a one-off.
33:24 It used a parameter of values rather than exact numbers, and concluded that humans are
33:28 most likely the only intelligent species around; that our existence is so improbably, incomprehensibly
33:34 rare.
33:35 On the other hand, there's the often-cited "Infinite Monkey Theorem"; the idea that
33:39 monkeys randomly pressing keys on a computer could eventually type out the works of Shakespeare,
33:43 which argues that given enough time, anything can happen - no matter how unlikely it might
33:48 seem.
33:49 So, for civilizations more advanced than human beings, it just depends on whether 13.8 billion
33:53 years is enough time.
33:56 In truth, there's just too much uncertainty about almost all the key values required here
34:01 to estimate where on a Kardashev-type ladder of advancement we might rank, or if indeed
34:05 there are other civilizations out there to even rank alongside.
34:09 With a sample size of one, life on Earth, we just don't know enough about life in
34:13 general, its properties and potential.
34:16 Some will argue that it's exceedingly common, pointing out that we're so far one-for-one;
34:20 that the only planet that we know of that's perfect for life, Earth, has successfully
34:24 developed it.
34:25 But, at the same time, others see our being here as just the product of extremely good
34:30 fortune and impossibly aligned circumstances.
34:33 If we're so unlikely that we're actually alone, then we're naturally the most advanced.
34:37 If we're not, if life itself is common, well, the odds that we're the superior ones
34:42 aren't at all in our favour.
34:45 So, what's your verdict?
34:47 Is humankind the highest there is?
34:49 Or are we quite insignificant in the grand scheme of things?
34:53 What do you think about the idea of a knowledge arc?
34:55 Can you picture a Type 5 power being the master manipulator of everything?
35:00 Is it possible that scientists have already discovered a Type 3 group?
35:04 And how would you use the Drake Equation to best understand the true nature of reality?
35:31 Is there an advanced civilization above humans?
35:43 On the one hand, there's nothing that we have yet identified.
35:47 On the other, in a potentially infinite universe, along a potentially endless pecking order,
35:53 the chances are that there has to be something more.