- #AsterDM hit an all-time high after the sale of its Gulf business
- Why are defence stocks doing so well?
Find out where money is moving in the market today with Hiral Dadia and Agam Vakil on 'Hot Money'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Sunny Agarwal, Head - Fundamental Equity Research, SBICAP Securities
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- Why are defence stocks doing so well?
Find out where money is moving in the market today with Hiral Dadia and Agam Vakil on 'Hot Money'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Sunny Agarwal, Head - Fundamental Equity Research, SBICAP Securities
_______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
Follow NDTV Profit here
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ndtvprofit/
#ndtvprofit #stockmarket #news #ndtv #business #finance #mutualfunds #sharemarket
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02:04 Hello and welcome.
02:13 This is Hot Money.
02:14 I am Agam Vakil, and with me is Hiral Dadia.
02:18 Well, this show, we take you through all the stocks which
02:21 are buzzing in trade.
02:22 And of course, for now, take a look
02:24 at how markets are panning out.
02:26 Well, flat at the moment as far as the Nifty and the Sensex go.
02:30 We have seen a relatively quiet day of trade for now,
02:33 and especially the Bank Nifty, which, of course,
02:36 will be in focus on account of HDFC's earnings, which
02:39 potentially could come through towards the end
02:41 of the session, most likely post-market hours.
02:44 That's where all the activity is slotted to be held.
02:48 But for now, of course, we're continuing
02:50 to see a lot of traction with respect to the benchmarks.
02:54 And in the benchmarks, we do have a handful
02:57 of gainers out there.
02:59 To take a look at BPCL, which is up around 4%,
03:02 we have Titan, which continues to advance by as much as 2%.
03:06 Hedo Motocorp has, once again, gained traction.
03:09 And ONGC is the other way, which is up and about,
03:12 advancing by around 1.5%.
03:14 Also want to address quickly what's
03:16 happening in the broader markets.
03:17 Well, there have been a handful of names which are up
03:20 and about on heavy volumes.
03:21 Do remember that IRFC was one of those counters which
03:25 did see a sharp up move yesterday.
03:28 And it does seem like it's moved and advanced
03:31 by 10% for yet another day, once again, on big volumes.
03:35 Yes Bank is the other one.
03:36 That's up and about by as much as 5% as well.
03:39 And Paytm advances by around 4% as we speak.
03:43 That's as far as some of these names go in terms of gainers.
03:46 And on the losing end, we don't have too much
03:49 on an absolute basis.
03:50 But we do have Oracle Financial Services,
03:52 which declined by around 3%.
03:54 Vodafone Idea, also down by just as much.
03:57 And 2.5% decline for Syngene International.
04:02 Very quickly, let's address the advanced decline ratio.
04:05 At least about a couple of hours ago,
04:07 the advanced decline ratio was nearly 1 is to 1
04:10 and has just changed.
04:11 That's something that we need to ascertain,
04:14 because that is largely what gives you
04:17 an idea about the sentiment of the market.
04:20 And for now, of course, as you can see on your screen,
04:23 the declines have ever slightly pipped advances
04:27 at the moment as we speak.
04:29 So it's still a 1 is to 1 ratio, but it's gone
04:33 in favor of the declines.
04:34 And that perhaps could be something of a challenge,
04:38 at least in the near term here.
04:40 Right.
04:40 So this is going to be interesting to watch out
04:42 for as well, Agam, from here on.
04:44 But let's actually shift focus to stock specific action
04:49 as well.
04:49 A couple of counters that we will be talking about
04:51 in today's year of trade.
04:52 So we have Aster DM.
04:54 That stock has seen some smart moves.
04:56 Angel One.
04:57 Defense companies are in focus.
04:59 IRFC from the PSU back.
05:01 PNC Infra on the back of an order win,
05:03 as well as Ajouti CNC on the listing.
05:06 In fact, one more stock I would want to add to the kitty
05:08 is the LIC as well, which has crossed the listing price,
05:12 but it's still away from its IPO price.
05:15 Joining us on the show to discuss these stocks,
05:17 we have Sunny Agarwal, head of fundamental equity research
05:19 at SBI Cap Securities.
05:21 Good afternoon and welcome to the show.
05:23 Before I come to you with a specific counter,
05:25 let's look at Aster DM on the screens.
05:28 The stock has actually hit a life high
05:30 in today's year of trade.
05:31 Now, they're clearly considering a dividend,
05:34 and this is after the stake sale in their Gulf business.
05:37 My colleague Varsha joins us to give us more
05:39 about what is this all about, what
05:42 is the kind of dividend that they're issuing.
05:44 Varsha, over to you.
05:45 Good afternoon, Heeral.
05:46 So as you rightly said, so Aster DM,
05:48 if you see the share price has soared nearly 13%
05:50 to hit its lifetime high.
05:52 Now, companies said-- now, this is on the back
05:54 that companies said it will be distributing
05:56 a majority of its proceeds for its stake sale in Gulf
05:58 business.
05:59 Also, the board will consider the distribution of 70% to 80%
06:03 of the upfront consideration, that is of $903 million
06:07 as a dividend to a shareholder, which
06:09 will be in the range of rupees 110 to 120 a share.
06:12 Now, this is on the back that the company does not
06:15 require the proceeds to fund its growth plans in India.
06:18 Also, if you see in 2023-- now, let's just
06:21 have a little background.
06:22 The Dubai-based Aster DM Healthcare
06:24 has approved the sale of business in the GCC region
06:27 to Alpha GCC Holdings for $1 billion.
06:30 And of this, $903 million will be
06:33 received at the closing of the transaction,
06:35 and the rest will depend on the fulfillment of the conditions.
06:38 Now, if you see the analyst recommendation of all the seven
06:41 analysts tracking the company, all
06:43 have a buy rating with a return potential of negative 2%.
06:48 And if you see the stock performance in last one year,
06:50 company has given a return of almost 92%,
06:53 while the six-month performance has been 38%.
06:57 Thanks, Varsha, for getting us the details.
06:59 Clearly, if you see from a 12-month perspective as well,
07:01 nearly the stock has doubled.
07:03 Sonny, let me come across to you with regards to an Aster DM.
07:07 How are you looking at the pharma pack closely,
07:10 and specifically with regards to Aster DM
07:13 now that we are going to look at two different entities as well?
07:19 Yeah, good afternoon.
07:20 So definitely, this demerger was already in plan
07:24 and discussed with the state.
07:26 And now it is getting executed.
07:28 And I think on a partial basis, the dividend payout
07:31 will be very healthy to the tune of maybe 90 to 100 rupees
07:35 per share.
07:36 So that's a clear cut, a very decent 20% dividend yield
07:41 till the time record rate is announced.
07:43 And moreover, what I feel is that demerger
07:45 will allow shareholder to get a direct view of India's story
07:51 on hospital expansion.
07:53 And on hospital side, India operations
07:55 has been doing pretty well.
07:56 I think during the last three, four years there,
08:00 we have seen a robust growth across the top line
08:02 as well as on EBITDA front.
08:03 Right now, India business is generating around 450,
08:06 or 450, 480, kind of EBITDA.
08:09 And ROE, ROCE, are on the tune of 20%.
08:13 So I think the demerger move is in line with the expectation.
08:17 And that is the reason we are seeing a positive uptake
08:21 in the stock price.
08:22 If somebody wants to invest or deploy fresh money in the Aster
08:26 DM, one can ride for the dividend play, obviously.
08:29 But one has to keep in mind that post-dividend exit,
08:32 we may see correction also in the stock price.
08:35 Taking call on business, obviously,
08:37 the business, entire hospital sector is doing well.
08:40 And so are the Aster DM also.
08:41 So if somebody is a medium to long-term investor,
08:44 he can definitely look at the company
08:46 and can follow beyond its strategy.
08:48 Sure.
08:48 Well, that's your view as far as Aster DM is concerned.
08:52 Very quickly, I want to address what's happening with KIOCL.
08:55 We understand its pellet unit in Mangalore will resume operations.
08:59 That's the latest coming in as far as KIOCL
09:02 is concerned.
09:02 But we move on and talk about angel broking, possibly
09:06 one of the biggest movers in not just the last one year,
09:10 but potentially the last couple of years.
09:12 And this is, of course, on account
09:14 of increased number of traders that we have seen,
09:18 and of course, many, many market participants
09:20 that come into the fray, which is why
09:22 your operational numbers have looked substantially
09:25 higher for angel broking over the course of the last one
09:27 year.
09:28 But while the revenue has grown, we
09:32 are looking at some of the challenges
09:34 with respect to margins.
09:35 I'm going to get in my colleague, Harsh Setta,
09:37 to give us an update on how the quarterly numbers have panned
09:40 out and what the challenges here are.
09:42 Harsh.
09:44 Well, yes, Agam.
09:45 So you're seeing good numbers on a year-on-year basis.
09:47 But the better way to look at this is probably sequentially.
09:50 You're seeing a 1% uptake on a quarter-on-quarter basis
09:54 where revenue is concerned.
09:56 EBDAT is actually fallen around 13% sequentially.
09:59 That's on the back of higher OPEX.
10:02 Let me talk a bit more about OPEX.
10:03 They've been spending, or Angel One has been investing,
10:06 spending, however you want to put it, on more tech,
10:09 as well as, more importantly, on customer acquisition.
10:12 That's something they've been spending on.
10:14 They've also suggested that they have
10:16 been switching with regard to some of their plans, which
10:21 they have sold to current customers.
10:24 And that is also probably what a modification
10:26 of the intraday structure is probably also
10:28 what is leading to slightly muted growth
10:32 where EBDAT is concerned.
10:34 And profit after tax is actually down 14%,
10:36 largely in line with that EBDAT number.
10:39 You're looking at client base, though, which has gone up 14%
10:42 sequentially.
10:43 That's a positive.
10:44 Clients now just below the $2 crore number.
10:47 Almost a 20% market share overall.
10:51 And you're looking at DMAT accounts, which
10:54 are up 80 bps on a sequential basis, 241 bps on a year
10:59 on year basis in terms of market share improvement.
11:02 So you're continuing to see market share improvement
11:04 and gains coming in here.
11:06 The active clients have also gone up.
11:08 They are at 53 lakhs.
11:10 So some of those trends playing out,
11:12 but on an otherwise softer quarter
11:14 where the operational update is concerned
11:16 from a business standpoint.
11:18 All right, Harsh.
11:19 Thanks so much for getting us those updates on Angel
11:21 Broking, or Angel One, as it is called right now.
11:25 Bal Sani, your view on Angel One, or if you track this one,
11:28 and what is your assessment on the broking industry?
11:32 Yeah, definitely a remarkable shift
11:35 from a traditional broker to a digital platform
11:38 as far as Angel One is concerned.
11:40 During last year, we have seen a massive increase
11:42 in profitability from maybe annual company.
11:46 If I remember, companies used to generate
11:48 200 crore annual profit three, four years back.
11:52 And right now, annual generated is close to 1,000 crore.
11:55 And what I believe is that this quarter, top line
11:57 is in line with the expectation.
11:59 Only issue is with the front loading of cost
12:01 pertaining to the newly set up asset management business.
12:04 At the same time, they have added manpower to--
12:08 at the same time, they have added manpower.
12:10 And they have spent on advertisement
12:12 to garner more market share as far as new account
12:16 acquisition is concerned.
12:18 So the benefit of all this will be seen maybe six months
12:21 down the line.
12:22 And that is the reason we have seen
12:24 that the path is a little bit subdued as compared
12:26 to their growth in the top line.
12:28 But having said that, if somebody
12:29 wants to bet a fresh money on Angel One,
12:31 what I feel is that currently stock
12:32 is trading at 30 times price to earning multiple.
12:35 So maybe a further 10% or 15% correction
12:37 will offer a better risk/reward ratio
12:40 as far as Angel One is concerned.
12:43 All right.
12:44 That's your view on Angel One.
12:46 And on that note, we slip into a short break.
12:48 But on the other side, we talk about more stocks
12:50 we have on our radar.
12:51 Stay tuned in.
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16:17 Welcome back. You're watching Hot Money.
16:20 IRFC, that's one of the stocks that is on our radar.
16:24 38% up move is what we've seen in the last five trading sessions.
16:28 Today as well, the stock is buzzing in trade up about 10%.
16:32 Now, what's happening with this counter?
16:34 Now, in today's session, you have multiple trades that have happened.
16:38 22.3 crore shares have exchanged hands.
16:41 Now, the largest four trades, which were at 40 lakh,
16:45 were traded at a price band of around 145.5
16:49 and an average of around 140.4 per share.
16:53 Clearly, the railway stocks have been buzzing as well ahead of the budget
16:56 and the kind of the capex outlay that the government has already planned.
17:00 Sunny, let me come across to you on IRFC
17:03 with the kind of run up that we've already seen.
17:06 What would you advise an investor who's already holding an IRFC do
17:10 and someone who wants to actually enter the railway space?
17:14 Would this be a preferred bet
17:16 or would you have any other recommendations as well?
17:20 On IRFC, definitely what I feel is that the valuation is very stretched.
17:24 I mean, at the current market price,
17:26 the company is commanding a market cap of close to 1.9 trillion rupees,
17:30 1.89 lakh crore rupees,
17:32 which is higher than I feel the Bank of Haroda market cap.
17:35 On price to book, the company is trading at a four-time price to book.
17:40 Even on price to earning multiple,
17:42 the annual profit with the company generated is close to 6,000 to 7,000 crore.
17:46 And with the market cap of close to 2 lakh crore,
17:49 the company is trading at more than 30 times price to earning multiple.
17:53 So I think it's looking slightly overstretched,
17:56 although we all know that it's a play on railway,
17:59 a growth story in India.
18:01 But valuation looks very expensive.
18:04 And I would recommend if somebody is sitting on a decent gain,
18:08 I would recommend to book the gain over here.
18:11 And one more fear which I have here is that
18:14 the government of India is holding 86% stake in the company.
18:17 So at any point of time, we may see OFS also coming.
18:21 So there is a likelihood of OFS also.
18:23 So if somebody is sitting on gain, one should book the profit.
18:26 And if somebody wants to enter fresh in this company,
18:29 I would recommend other than IRFC, some other better place like RBNL,
18:34 where we have got a very decent visibility in terms of revenue for next three to five years.
18:39 So RBNL looks relatively better.
18:42 But again, RBNL has also run up during the last few days.
18:45 So buy on this strategy as far as RBNL is concerned.
18:48 And on private side, one company which we like is Tata Rail.
18:52 Again, it's a play on wagon growth story of railway.
18:56 So Tata Rail can be one of the stock which one can look at.
18:59 Okay. Well, moving on, let's address what's happening in PNC Infratech,
19:04 because that's the one which has in fact plans and laid out plans
19:09 to sell road assets worth well over 9000 crores across four states.
19:15 And that's the reason why we did see substantial strength through the course of the day today.
19:20 It's moderated, but we're still seeing a 4% up move and also the highest levels in many, many months.
19:28 The question really is that, is this the catch up play where PNC Infratech is making
19:34 with respect to a whole host of other infra companies?
19:37 Because while a lot of analysts on the street did have a positive view on PNC Infratech,
19:44 it was or rather it has had been a laggard over the past 12 odd months.
19:50 And now it does seem like there is a little bit of surge coming in here as well.
19:55 Sunny, your view, if you track this one?
19:58 Yeah, actually, we like the business.
20:01 In fact, we are bullish on entire infrastructure space and with the recent divestment of the road asset,
20:08 what we feel is that the company can deploy the same cash for further EPC into the EPC business.
20:16 And we continue to remain constructive on PNC Infra.
20:18 In addition to that, other infra companies like Nagarjuna Construction, ITD Cementation, J. Kumar Infra, PSP Project.
20:26 So entire infrastructure space we are bullish on with investment horizon of two to three years.
20:33 Right. So that's with regards to where the infrastructure space goes.
20:36 Moving on from the new listing, a new kid on the block, you have Ajouti CNC,
20:41 which listed on the burses in today's day of trade, a 12 percent premium is what we saw in terms of the listing.
20:48 We did speak to the management as well.
20:51 But clearly from what the interaction says is a strong order book is what they're looking at.
20:56 On the back of the debt repayment, the interest cost is expected to go down.
21:01 And that is something that will improve the profitability as well.
21:04 Right now, if you go to see 26, 27 percent is where the stock is seeing in terms of gains.
21:09 Sunny, what would your view be on Ajouti CNC?
21:12 Someone who would have probably missed the bus in getting allotment.
21:17 Would you advise to enter at current levels?
21:20 So, again, a very unique business, 10 percent market share as far as CNC machines is concerned.
21:27 And have a presence, a very strong presence on export side also.
21:30 But having said that, what I feel is that the operational performance was not so good during the last two, three years.
21:37 And companies are just unprofitable.
21:39 However, once the debt repayment is done, we may see a reduction in interest costs.
21:44 And that will lead to the, that will lead in profitability.
21:47 But what I feel is that maybe we should wait for one quarter numbers.
21:51 Here the management about the growth strategy for next two to three years.
21:56 And then probably one can add this stock in the portfolio.
22:00 So, wait and watch will be my approach till the time for my first quarter results are out from this company.
22:05 Right. So, that's with regards to where Ajouti CNC goes.
22:10 Thank you, Sunny, so much for joining us on the show and sharing your views with regards to the stocks,
22:15 which are seeing some hot moves in today's day of trade.
22:18 But let's quickly slip into a short break.
22:19 Lots more lined up from the world of Davos after the break.
22:23 Please stay tuned.
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25:14 Welcome back.
25:16 Well, very quickly addressing what's happening with Himadri Specialty.
25:19 We have earnings and while the revenues look flattish, about 1% growth,
25:26 looking the bottom line of whopping 69% growth there.
25:30 Of course, we're still awaiting the full fine print and that could perhaps help us understand
25:37 what's actually gone through and gone down with Himadri Chemicals,
25:41 whether or not there are in fact some one-offs which are playing in favor of the benchmark,
25:47 and pardon me, the bottom line, along with whether or not there has in fact been
25:52 a substantial improvement in its operating performance.
25:55 So that's something that we will continue to keep an eye on.
25:59 The top line is not encouraging, but the bottom line perhaps more than makes up for the kind of,
26:05 well, traction that we see in revenues.
26:07 But we move on from there on and it's day two at Davos and NDTV network continues to get you
26:14 the top corporate and political voices from the world, the economic forum.
26:19 NDTV's Vishnusom spoke to the WEF president, Urg Vrende,
26:25 and he started by asking him about national security advisors.
26:30 Meet at Davos, listen in.
26:33 We had 80 national security advisors here in Davos yesterday, including the Indian one,
26:41 looking at other ways of ending the war in Ukraine, but then based on the UN Charter.
26:48 It's not going to happen next week, but I think it's incredibly important that we don't see
26:57 further escalations of the wars that are ongoing.
27:00 Ukraine, Gaza, I know we have a very difficult situation also in the Red Sea, as you know,
27:06 with the Houthis attack on all the ships that is passing through one of the most important
27:14 shipping routes in the world, also bringing oil and goods to India.
27:19 Yes, absolutely. Could you tell us a little bit about that?
27:23 One of the things that the WEF has done is you keep coming up with your own economic outlook.
27:28 If the Red Sea becomes even more tense, if international trade flows continue to suffer,
27:34 what sort of macroeconomic scenario are we looking at?
27:38 That would, of course, have a negative impact even on the forecast we made for this year.
27:45 We think that the global economy will grow with 2.9% this year.
27:49 This is the third year we have to reduce the forecast.
27:53 We're more optimistic on 2025, but our overall worry is that any of these geopolitical conflicts
28:00 can escalate and spread.
28:02 And if we see major wars, we see trading routes being interrupted, if we see the oil price going dramatically up,
28:09 that will also have a very negative impact on economic growth.
28:14 Thank you.
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