- #OracleFinancial trades at high volumes, reaching an intraday high of 23%
- #HappiestMindTechnologies' key takeaways from their Q3 earnings
Agam Vakil brings you the bulk and block deal highlights of the day on 'Large Trades'. #NDTVProfitLive
- #HappiestMindTechnologies' key takeaways from their Q3 earnings
Agam Vakil brings you the bulk and block deal highlights of the day on 'Large Trades'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
00:00 Market rebound Nifty Pharma has emerged as the top gaining
00:04 sector. Nifty Bank and Metals continue to trade in the red.
00:07 Nifty Mid Cap and Small Caps marginally trade in the red but outperform the benchmarks.
00:17 HDFC Bank remains under the hammer. In the last two days, the ADRs have suffered a plunge of over
00:26 15% while HDFC Bank's stock is tanked nearly 10%. And more earnings on our radar today.
00:35 IndusInd Bank, Polycab and Tata Communications are set to come out with their December quarter earnings.
00:42 Hello and welcome. This is Last Trades. I'm Agam Akhil and in this show we take you through all
01:03 the bug-deals, block-deals and the big volume buzzers through the course of the day.
01:07 But right at the top, let's start with the markets. Now, we have seen a little bit of recovery from
01:14 the day's lows as far as markets are concerned. And while the Bank Nifty did move in the green
01:19 to a certain extent, it is once again showing a lot of weakness. So, well, there's some amount
01:25 of weighing down as far as benchmarks are concerned. The Nifty, you know, that has also come
01:30 off from day's highs as well. But we're looking at a little bit of a range-bound session as far
01:34 as benchmarks go. And it's been a quiet one at that. And there's been a little bit of a, you know,
01:40 push and pull between, well, should I say, bulls and bears at the moment. While we did see the
01:46 Nifty once again make an attempt to move into the green, that really hasn't come through. And the
01:52 question really is that if not today, then can we see a bottle-shot covering perhaps over the course
01:57 of the next few days? And it is imminent, but when is something that we are yet to have an answer for?
02:05 But as far as stocks go in terms of constituents, in terms of all the – well, should I say,
02:10 the stocks which are perhaps pushing the Nifty higher would be something like an L&T,
02:18 Axis Bank and Reliance Industries. On the other hand, HDFC Bank for yet another day
02:23 continues to weigh heavily on that particular benchmark. And let's not forget, LTIM has come
02:30 up with its earnings as well. We are seeing a sharp knock on that one as well, along with Asian
02:35 Pains. So keep an eye on a whole host of these counters. Let's take a look at the broader markets
02:39 too and what's really buzzing there. You know, and we were talking about the broader markets
02:44 marginally outperforming the benchmarks at the moment. We haven't seen too much traction there,
02:50 but, well, some gainers are here coming through as well, all the same. And, you know, overall,
02:57 as far as your broader markets are concerned, we haven't seen that much. But if I just consider
03:05 the macro cap index, and, you know, there is a lot of price movement there. So we do have
03:11 something like a Watt Card, which is up around 5.5%. Keep an eye on JK Tire. That's up around
03:17 5.2% as well. And we have around 4.8% gains for Inox Wind. So these are a handful of counters
03:25 which are in fact bucking the trend. And, well, it's something that you can keep an eye on,
03:31 because if they're moving in markets which are weak, well, I'm sure we will continue to see a
03:36 surge once we see some amount of positive traction in markets overall in general. But from there on,
03:42 we talk about stocks, which will be in focus in today's day of trade. Right at the top,
03:47 we will be talking about Oracle Financial Services, a tremendous quarter and it's coming,
03:54 well, moving from strength to strength, isn't it? Billacorp, on the other hand, is also in focus.
03:58 It's given up on days highs, but it's still buzzing on significant volumes.
04:04 PCBL has been the silent mover in today's day of trade, and not just today, but in general overall.
04:12 We'll be talking about that, along with LTI Minetree, a disappointing set of earnings coming
04:18 through. And, well, that's where you're seeing that big knock as far as the price is concerned.
04:24 We start off with Oracle Financial Services and it's looking at a substantial up move.
04:29 We've seen earnings come through as well. But let's get in Mahima to talk to us about
04:35 what's really done, gone well for this particular quarter. Mahima.
04:41 Right, Agams, as you rightly mentioned, it's had a tremendous quarter three. If we see the revenue
04:47 has grown by 26 percent, EBIT was up 57 percent and margins have improved significantly to 46.5
04:55 percent as compared to 37.3 percent last quarter. Net profit has been up 77.5 percent, which is a
05:02 huge jump. If we talk about the key highlights, the license fees have increased by 76 percent
05:10 this year as compared to the last fiscal year. 19 customers went live this quarter,
05:15 which is a good number. The EPS, surprisingly, has increased by 25 percent, which is a good
05:21 number again. And 50 percent of the revenue comes from U.S. and Asia Pacific region.
05:27 Also, their attrition rate has decreased from 15 percent to 10 percent as compared to Q3 FY23,
05:34 which is also a good sign. If we talk about the stock performance, the stock has touched
05:38 an intraday high of 23.3 percent. Five days, the stock has been up 37 percent. One month,
05:46 the stock has been up around 40 percent. And in one year, the stock has given returns of around
05:50 98 percent. Also, there has been one large trade that has taken place where approximately 54,000
05:56 shares have been exchanged at the price of 6103.4. And the shares are at present also trading very
06:03 high in volumes, 20 times its 20-day average. So, overall, the good, the extremely good result is
06:09 what literally taken the stock up. Well, absolutely, Mahima. There are no two ways
06:15 about the kind of traction that we are seeing, not only just price, but also volumes action. Mahima,
06:21 thank you so much for getting us that update as far as LTE, pardon me, well,
06:25 Oracle Financial Services is concerned. But from there on, we move on to Bidla Corp. That's the
06:30 other stock that we have on our radar. This is, of course, the cement company. And look at its
06:35 intraday movement. Earlier on the day, it started off with a bang. Ever since then, it has given up
06:40 a substantial amount of its intraday gains. But that's not to speak or not to say that there has,
06:46 it's been lacking in terms of volumes because, in fact, it's the other way around. Well, let's get
06:51 an update on this one as well. And perhaps we could get a little bit of flavor with respect
06:56 to what's happening with the cement sector as well. Let's get in Mihika to talk to us about that.
07:00 Mihika. Yes. So, yeah, the stock has bad gains, but it went to an intraday high of 9%. And the
07:06 stock is up 46% over the past year. Volumes were over 15.5 times its 30-day average. And the total
07:13 volumes did stand at 13.6 lakhs. Now, in terms of Q3 expectations, Bloomberg estimates, estimate a
07:20 revenue growth of 15% year on year. EBITDA growth to double and margins to also expand from 7.2%
07:27 to 14.8%. And the company is also expected to post a net profit versus a net loss a year ago.
07:34 Now, what's working for the cement space and the company itself is the pan India cement price
07:39 hikes, which will help realizations. On a quarter on quarter basis, pan India prices are up 3%.
07:47 Furthermore, moderate demand is also expected to help volumes. And one of the key factors is the
07:54 low fuel cost, which is going to help get better EBITDA per ton. The power and fuel expenses
08:00 account for 30% on average total expenses for cement companies. And both domestic and international
08:08 petroleum, coke and coal prices have fallen 30 to 40% year on year. And lastly, is their Mukatban
08:15 plant, which is expected to ramp up. Now, Centrum Broking states that the ramp up will help the
08:20 company and the company's current strategy to focus more on the premium products augurs well
08:25 for the company. And as the realization, which was at 40% as of September, as it grows, the
08:34 profitability by the plant would also help the company. Okay, Meeka, thanks so much for getting
08:39 us that insight as far as Billacorp and the cement sector is concerned. But we talk about a stock
08:47 which has been a tremendous mover and another 11% added in today's day of trade as well. That's
08:54 Philips Carbon Black, PCBL to be a little more precise, and it's buzzing on volumes. But I'm
09:02 going to say no more because I know that my colleague Varsha has a lot to tell us about this
09:08 one. Varsha, good afternoon. What do you have for us? Good afternoon, Agam. So, as you rightly said,
09:12 so company is trading at over 12% in trade today. Now, if you see, let us have a background on this
09:18 company. So, what company does is it's into business of production of carbon black, which is
09:23 slowly increasing its contribution from performance chemicals and speciality chemicals. Now, what's
09:28 working in favor is one of the, so there has been improvement in the product mix for the company.
09:34 And so, if you see the share of performance chemicals is up 21% in Q3 FY23 versus 27% in Q3 FY24.
09:44 Also, the share of speciality chemicals is up from 9% to 11% over the same period. So,
09:51 good improvement in product mix. Also, if you see, the improved product mix has lifted their margins
09:58 from 12% in Q3 FY23 to 17% in this quarter. So, two days back, a company had results. So,
10:07 let us see how the results were. So, revenue was up almost 21%. EBITDA was up 70% as margins were
10:14 17% versus 11%. And if you see, what are the factors contributing this success is higher
10:20 export share, which is up 50%. So, there was this increase in export volume by 50%. Also,
10:27 better product mix within non-specialty segments. And there's been strong ramp up of new capacities
10:33 in Tamil Nadu, which has achieved 50% of capacity utilization. Now, company anticipates reaching
10:39 optimum utilization over the next two quarters. Also, the cherry on the cake is the company has
10:44 recently acquired two, have done two acquisitions, one of being Aqua Pharma Chemicals. Now, this is
10:51 very important step as company's journey towards getting away from pure commodity carbon black to
10:57 specialty chemicals. Then, JV with Kinaltech, which is for expansion in battery application
11:03 market. And these acquisitions will be financed through a mix of internal accruals and debt.
11:08 Okay. So, to summarize what Varsha has just told us about Philips Carbon Black or BCBL in this case
11:14 is that one, they're looking at an improvement in their product mix. They've had a very, very strong
11:20 quarter coming through in which not only do they have very strong revenue growth, but also a
11:25 significant expansion in their EBITDA margins. Moreover, when it comes to other factors, they
11:31 are looking at higher export shares among many other things. And of course, they're looking at
11:36 a ramp up as far as production goes. And to aid that, they also have an acquisition, which actually
11:43 not only aids them in their business, but also diversifies and de-risks their business. So,
11:48 these are the several factors that are working in favor of BCBL. But Varsha, if you could tell us,
11:53 while we have seen the strong up move, I'm sure there are also certain risks associated with the
11:59 stock. Yes. So, Agam, so one of, so this company is into B2B business. So, one of the risks is
12:05 what if their clients start up with backward integration? So, for example, Bal Krishna
12:11 Industries started its backward integration into carbon black. So, backward integration by their
12:18 clients is one of the risks that this company may face. The other risk, there is an alternative
12:22 substitute to carbon black, which is silica. So, increased use of silica in tires will actually
12:29 pose risk for this company. And also the third risk being increase in crude price will actually
12:35 impact the margins for this company. So, if you see in December 2020, when the crude price was
12:40 down, the margins were almost 20 to 25 percent. But later on, we saw the margins decrease. So,
12:46 volatility in margins, which we may see due to crude price impact. So, these are the risks that
12:52 this company may face. Sure, sure. Well, Varsha, thank you so much for getting us so many details
12:58 on this one silent mover that we have been tracking through the course of the last 12 odd months. We
13:05 continue to keep an eye on that one. And from there on, we talk about a nifty company, which
13:09 has been under pressure in today's day of trade. And I'm talking about LTI Mindtree. Now, we've
13:14 seen volume surge and these are significant volumes to say the least, because we have seen a little
13:21 bit of a disappointment when it comes to the way things are turning out for LTI Mindtree.
13:26 While we have seen a significant change when it comes to its operating metrics,
13:34 it's not really translated in terms of its quarterly earnings. Remember, we are working
13:38 with an already weak quarter. But that said, while that expectation of quarter was there,
13:46 we are looking at a contraction in EBITDA margins, pardon me, EBIT margins in this case.
13:51 And that's the reason why we've seen the company take a huge knock. There were a lot of expectations
13:57 with respect to growth when it comes to LTI Mindtree. Now, while the company does suggest
14:03 that they have the highest ever order inflows to the tune of nearly $1.5 billion, and their head
14:11 count has also dipped to a certain extent, and sequentially by about a thousand odd mark,
14:18 and their attrition rate stands at around 12%. That's not too much to speak for.
14:23 The question really is that until a session ago, the valuations at which LTI Mindtree was trading
14:31 at was factoring in substantially higher growth as compared to what the quarter results are,
14:38 and the consequential impact on your annual numbers. Of course, we will have an update
14:46 on the guidance for the upcoming year in the final quarter of this financial year.
14:52 But if we do see even a bit of a miss when it comes to the top line and the margins,
14:59 that's where you see, well, companies which are so fully factored in when the positives
15:06 takes the kind of knock that we are seeing as far as LTI Mindtree is concerned today.
15:10 Now, we're going to keep an eye on the several tracking meters. And even at this rate,
15:16 LTI Mindtree potentially is the favored company among the top five based on market capitalization.
15:23 That is, of course, when you consider something like an Infosys, TCS,
15:27 HCI Technologies and Wipro. But once again, today's knock will have shaved off a good amount
15:34 of its market capitalization. And the question at the moment stands that if it is looking at
15:40 a 10% correction, is there more in store? And at around well over 6000 rupees per share,
15:47 was it really priced to perfection, which is why we are looking at that amount of weakness
15:51 seeping in. We continue to keep an eye on a whole host of these factors as far as LTI Mindtree is
15:56 concerned. But on that note, we slip into a short break. But before that, we also spoke to the CEO
16:03 of LTI Mindtree and that is Devashish Chatterjee. And this is what he had to say about the company's
16:10 margins. Listen. We have very clearly called out that for FY24, and we are not going to,
16:22 we are that 17 to 18% range does not hold good. So we are going to, but at the same time,
16:27 the plan remains intact, but we are just differing it by a few quarters. But when you talk about the
16:32 EBIT bridge, just to clarify, we lost almost 200 basis points because of furloughs, fewer working
16:38 days and quite a bit of seasonal pass through that we have in our business in Q3. But we recovered
16:45 80 basis points from our SG&A efficiency as well as 60 basis points from our other operating
16:50 efficiency. So we lost 200, gone back 140. That's why you see a decline of 60 in terms of our EBIT.
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20:33 >> Welcome back.
20:38 And we take stock of Happiest Minds now.
20:43 That's Happiest Minds Technologies, which has reported its third quarter earnings,
20:48 where revenue for the quarter inched up around 11.7%.
20:53 And, well, my colleague Tushar spoke to the MD and CFO of the company,
20:58 and this is what they had to say. Listen in.
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23:53 >> Sorry. Right. Well, moving on, we talk about what's happening in Davos.
23:58 My colleague Niraj Shah spoke to the Vice Chairman and Managing Director of Apollo TAS
24:03 at the World Economic Forum at Davos about his perspective on India's growth
24:08 and how there are people keen on making investments in India. Listen in.
24:17 >> Well, it's been pretty neutral, I would say, but, yeah, India is on the growth path, as we all know.
24:23 Six and a half to 7% is our growth GDP. So, India is booming, as we can see on the promenade.
24:30 All states are well represented, and there is a lot of inflow of funds coming into India.
24:35 I can see that. There's a lot of excitement about India because other world economies are going through
24:41 recessions, inflationary issues, political, geopolitical issues, whereas I think the government
24:47 under the Prime Minister is being very proactive and have taken very good, positive,
24:53 proactive steps for the Indian consumers, for the India infrastructure, which is now playing out.
25:00 And we are seeing that on the road also. >> Okay. So, not just as the head honcho of Apollo TAS,
25:05 but as somebody who is a part of various bodies in India and Davos, what have been conversations like?
25:10 Are people keen to make investments into India or other economies at a point of time
25:15 when the world growth seems to be tapering off? >> Well, I think it's a bit cautious.
25:20 People are waiting and watching. One of the big themes that's going on around here is AI,
25:26 and you would have also seen that. And a lot of artificial intelligence, machine learning,
25:31 what is generative artificial intelligence, how that is going to help your businesses,
25:35 how that is also going to help governments and economies to scale up, a lot of data centers coming around.
25:42 So, that's, I guess, the new buzz that's going around in Davos this year.
25:47 >> Yeah. Well, of course, for a tire company, not necessarily everything around it,
25:52 but adapting to that will also be important. But also, just tell us about how do you envisage 2024 to be?
25:58 >> Well, you know, particularly in AI, we've been doing this for the past three years now.
26:03 >> Okay. >> So, we have two tech innovation hubs, one in Hyderabad and one in London,
26:09 where there are data scientists sitting. We are now on the cloud, so all our data is real time.
26:15 We have seven plants across India and Europe. So, all data is coming in from the cloud.
26:21 Data scientists are analyzing it through artificial intelligence, understanding equipment.
26:28 So, for example, in our plant in Hungary, we've been able to increase our productivity by nearly 12%,
26:33 just through data mining, understanding data, and by increasing productivity.
26:38 So, very less inflow of CapEx, which is what we are doing for the next two years.
26:43 We're going CapEx Lite, and we are putting a lot of emphasis on digitalization
26:47 and trying to see how we can improve our balance sheet ratios.
26:52 Our ROCE has now gone up to 15% to 16% from a sub-10.
26:57 That's all thanks to all the digital activities that we're doing.
27:01 And more and more, we'll keep on investing in this. So, right now, it's only gone into manufacturing.
27:06 The next step is to take it into supply chain, take it into sales and marketing,
27:12 and understand consumer behavior through artificial intelligence.
27:16 And with that, it's a wrap in this edition of Large Trades.
27:19 On the other side, we get you India markets close. Stay tuned in.
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31:18 Hello and welcome to India market close.
31:21 And it's the third straight day of weakness on D Street.
31:24 The markets continue to see selling pressure as we head into the last hour of trade.
31:29 Well, we're off the day's low point, which is 21,285.
31:32 We are pretty much at the same point as we were when we started trade at 9 a.m. this morning.
31:37 144 points off on the Nifty 50.
31:40 The Sensex as well trades with a similar cutter.
31:43 So no major relief has come in through the most part of the trading day.
31:46 Intraday lows were made.
31:47 We have recovered from that, closing pretty, I mean, trading pretty much 50 to 60 points away
31:52 from the intraday high that the markets had made.
31:54 Bang Nifty is a weak spot and is probably single-handedly pulling the Nifty lower.
32:00 There are three stocks that are responsible for today's fall.
32:02 We'll take you through that in a minute.
32:04 But Bang Nifty down 500 odd points, 45,560 is what Bang Nifty trades at.
32:11 Broader markets were actually doing better than the benchmark in the first half of trade.
32:15 But that equation has now changed slightly with the broader markets performing or declining
32:20 in line with the benchmark itself.
32:21 In fact, just to put this in perspective, the mid-cap and the small-cap index actually
32:25 opened positive in the first few ticks of trade this morning, but very quickly have
32:29 declined to trade in line with the benchmark itself.
32:32 Well, the small-cap is still not looking as bad as the mid-cap.
32:34 The mid-cap and the Nifty pretty much trading in line with each other.
32:37 Well, the breadth of the market has definitely improved from the get-go this morning.
32:42 It still doesn't look very good, but you have seen some amount of stocks advancing,
32:47 which weren't really doing so in the first half of trade.
32:50 The declining numbers still outpacing advances by almost double.
32:53 Well, those are the top gainers and losers in trade.
32:56 Like I said, three to four counters that have single-handedly let the index lower today.
33:00 It's LTI Mindtree, the counter is getting trashed on back of numbers that some believe
33:05 are below street expectations.
33:07 Margins expansion was not seen.
33:09 Guidance has been pushed forward.
33:11 No clarity in terms of when there could be a recovery and uptick for the company is what's
33:16 pulling the stock lower.
33:17 11% cut on LTI Mindtree is what we have.
33:20 NTPC seeing a cut of 4%.
33:22 HDFC Bank after a nearly 9% fall yesterday continues to trade with a cut of over 3.5%,
33:28 dip below 1500 and is trading around those levels even as we speak.
33:32 Power grid down 2.5%.
33:34 Asian paints numbers weren't too bad, but the street doesn't seem very overjoyed by that.
33:38 The stock corrected yesterday in the last few minutes of trade, continues to do so today as well.
33:42 2.5% off on Asian paints is what we have.
33:46 On the gaining side, Sun Pharma on back of soon to be completed acquisition of Taro.
33:52 The stock is getting a thumbs up.
33:54 Creative remember with 100% owned subsidiary or company of Sun Pharma.
33:58 The counter trades 2.5% higher.
34:00 Cipla is not doing too badly.
34:02 I guess LTI Mindtree is lost since we take mind there's gain 2% higher this afternoon.
34:06 M&M, Tata Motors, auto is not looking too bad.
34:09 L&T on an order win.
34:11 Some of your banks which were getting sold off yesterday on back of a contagion effect of HDFC
34:16 such as Axis Bank and ICSA Bank have probably found their feet in afternoon trade.
34:22 All in all, it's a down day.
34:25 No surprises there, Harsh, but we aren't doing as badly as the intraday low.
34:29 I do feel like the likes of HDFC Bank will soon find their feet and we should settle at these levels if not recover.
34:35 Absolutely, Samina.
34:37 Few stocks which are buzzing in trade today, you've pointed out a few, especially on the benchmark.
34:43 But let's take it to the broader market quickly.
34:46 We have Shakti Pumps in focus.
34:48 QIP coming in there to 100 odd crore.
34:51 You also have the likes of Tata Motors among the frontliners.
34:54 We have a positive note coming in from Bofa which has helped the stock gain around a percent of their bouts.
35:02 Ajmera and Keystone, both those counters in focus on the back of a tie-up that they've had
35:07 with regard to development of a project worth 760 odd crores.
35:13 Both companies will be holding a 50% stake.
35:16 You can see that spike in Ajmera on the back of that.
35:19 Max Health around half a percent of the total market cap has exchanged hands
35:25 and therefore you're seeing that 3% down on the stock.
35:28 We're seeing Ashok Leeland order win 520 crores in consideration and you're seeing that stock a buzz as well.
35:35 Aarti Industries, 6000 crore new order win coming through.
35:39 Four-year supply contract, 1500 crore per year starting FY25.
35:44 We spoke with the management, that stock is up in a way as well, 4.5% plus.
35:48 NHPC in focus because government is selling stake.
35:51 I expect it to.
35:52 Precall Minda also in focus.
35:55 You know, Minda has sold 15.5% in Precall at 343.
35:59 You're seeing even Precall largely in focus and that one's the real beneficiary.
36:04 Sun Pharma, Samina spoke about.
36:06 We also have within the earnings pack several stocks in focus.
36:10 Oracle Finance, the two big ones, of course HDFC Bank and LTI Minetree still continue to be in focus.
36:17 ICICI Pru is down on the back of results.
36:20 Alok Industries, Happiest Minds as well as South Indian Bank.
36:24 If we can quickly have those, you'll see the reaction there as well.
36:28 Positive on South Indian Bank on the back of a strong path growth coming in and Happiest Minds down 4.5%.
36:36 Those are all of the stocks in focus, Samina.
36:39 It's insane, right?
36:40 You get stocks like Oracle that actually gain with the kind of gains that we've seen.
36:44 Unprecedented moves is often what some of these stocks have been seeing in the last couple of weeks or at least in this part of the rally.
36:52 Rakil like Harsh Maintained has impressed the streets so much so that the stock trades with a gain of 28%.
37:01 Soba, I want to quickly mention, I'm not sure if he mentioned that the stock is up 14%, so very sharp rally playing out there.
37:07 Web of Global, now this is an interesting counter.
37:09 It's been a huge underperformer in the last few years.
37:13 We actually had caught up with one of the marquee investors in Web of Global, which is Sumit of Malabar Investments.
37:21 And he was talking about how the company's prospects are looking great.
37:24 They've also raised some funds for massive expansion plans this year and that could be keeping the stock together up 7% in trade.
37:30 Apollo Tires is up 6.5%.
37:32 So, Auto Ancillary is actually looking pretty good today.
37:34 Castrol India also trading with a little bit of a gain.
37:37 Seat, tire companies in particular are having a pretty pleasant day.
37:41 Well, apart from LTI Maintry, Alok has got a thumbs down in numbers.
37:44 The stock is down 6.5%.
37:46 Koforge is seeing some weakness.
37:48 You've also got Capri Global.
37:50 Now, remember, Capri Global as well has been a big gainer in the last few days.
37:54 There was fundraising there.
37:56 The company we caught up with yesterday seems very optimistic and bullish about the outlook.
38:01 What you're seeing this afternoon is pure and simple profit taking.
38:04 So, that's literally the texture of the market.
38:06 Stock specific action, but you've got some stocks that are leading the losses on back of earnings largely.
38:12 Well, a quick mention of Yorup, if I can get that on the screen before we go over to Gaurav Biswa and get a sense of the markets from him as well.
38:18 Yorup, remember, is seeing a flat start from what I last checked.
38:24 There you go.
38:25 That's exactly how it is.
38:26 CAC is looking okay, but the DAX and the FTSE are trading flat.
38:29 They, remember, was at a pretty rough day in trade yesterday.
38:31 So, those markets, as they open up, are trying to find some sort of sanity this afternoon.
38:36 But Gaurav Biswa, Vice President in Credit Equities, now joins us.
38:39 Gaurav, hi.
38:40 Good morning.
38:41 Sorry, good afternoon.
38:42 How are you feeling about the markets?
38:45 We've seen a big fall.
38:47 I don't know whether a 4% really qualifies as a big fall, especially after the kind of rally and run up that we've seen in the last couple of months.
38:54 But what are the thoughts on the Nifty and what's the strategy on the Nifty at these levels?
39:00 Very good afternoon and thank you for inviting me on the show.
39:03 Yes, indeed, 4% might not sound that large unless you are a put writer.
39:08 Having said that, Nifty is not trading near its support area.
39:12 21,450 is the immediate support area.
39:15 It's hinching around those levels.
39:17 For Bank Nifty, the supports are placed at 45,400 on the spot side.
39:22 Again, it's slightly above that.
39:24 So, in my opinion, if these levels are sustained, we may see some relief upside.
39:29 I will not call this as a bottom that from here on we'll have a fresh lifetime high of 18,000.
39:35 But a bounce back cannot be ruled out.
39:38 We have seen RSI on the lower time frames, intraday time frames being extremely oversold zones.
39:44 So, under that perspective, you can see that even though from just almost a flat kind of move in Nifty, we are down 130, 140 points.
39:52 We have again tried to recover.
39:55 That is because your RSI is still in the oversold zone and that is trying to make sure that we don't fall too much.
40:02 So, yes, today we might end on a negative note.
40:05 We might not fall very deep.
40:08 And tomorrow if we sustain again above 21,500 and 45,500 for Bank Nifty, we may see some upside of towards the level of 21,850 in the coming days.
40:18 So, right now, we are not that bearish.
40:20 We were a few days back.
40:22 We are hopeful of a bounce.
40:25 Gaurav, we made an intraday low of 21,285.
40:30 We bounced back from that to levels of 21,480 odd.
40:35 What sort of a closing are you watching out for in today's day of trade that could probably for the interim lead to maybe a dead cat bounce of that?
40:47 That will be around levels of 21,500 because people who got comfortable writing call options will now again be forced to cover their positions.
40:56 And we may see some short covering also once Nifty sustains above 21,500.
41:01 For me, that is a good level to watch out for.
41:04 And if that sustains, then today's low, that becomes the trigger point of many of the stop-losses of the long position.
41:12 We may see a decent upside.
41:14 We will have a day where we had a panic bottom.
41:17 We had a very strong bounce, very strong recovery from the panic bottom.
41:20 And then we are comfortably sustaining above an immediate resistance level of 21,500.
41:25 So, these three factors combined can result in some amount of upside in the Nifty in the coming days.
41:31 Got it. Gaurav Harsh also joining in.
41:33 Gaurav, if I can have your views on two counters in particular.
41:37 It's TFC Bank. What should one do? How are charts looking?
41:40 And LTI Minetree, both of those big ones are beaten in trade.
41:45 See, it's very easy to answer for SDFC Bank.
41:49 The disclaimer, we have advised our clients to buy SDFC Bank today.
41:54 We are not suggesting a buy for a trading perspective.
41:58 But for long-term investors, we have pushed them to buy at least a partial quantity to be bought at the current juncture.
42:05 Yesterday, the area was pointing towards a 10% cut. And if there were a similar kind of fall that we would have seen today, 8%, 9%,
42:12 then we would have bought the entire quantity. But it was a 2%, 3% downside.
42:17 So, in that perspective, we are keeping some cash to average it out again once it goes towards 1400.
42:23 The long-term structure remains extremely positive.
42:26 And I think this is going to be one of the last falls, another 5%, 7% from here.
42:31 And then we can see a very sustained upside.
42:33 So, we may see some underperformance on an immediate basis.
42:36 It might trade in a range. It might remain sluggish, how it has been doing for the last one year.
42:41 But the intensity of the fall will not be that high going forward.
42:45 It's HDFC Bank that we are talking about.
42:49 Gaurav, even if you, like you said, you have recommended a long trade to your clients and, you know, your clients largely.
42:59 What is the sort of upside that we are watching out for?
43:02 So, even if we do get a revival or a return or some sort of a recovery coming in, what should be a good take profit level?
43:09 So, our conserved targets are Rs. 1750-1800, which we are expecting in a year.
43:15 And from there, we may see a fresh momentum sort of coming in.
43:19 So, on our property models, there have been four instances where it has come to extreme levels.
43:25 And in all the three or four instances, we have seen a very sharp rise coming in.
43:29 It makes a fresh lifetime high within months and it does not do long term uptrend.
43:34 That extreme level would have been Rs. 1300 if it would have fallen towards those levels.
43:39 Since it has not approached those levels, we are not very aggressively buying.
43:42 But what we expect is that at least a lifetime high can be seen this year.
43:46 And then we may review whether we need to keep booking profits or we need to ride the trend.
43:52 Vineet Bulinkar also joins in.
43:55 Vineet, good afternoon.
43:57 We spoke a few days ago and a lot has changed since then, it seems like it.
44:02 The markets are looking a little less nervous than they did this morning.
44:06 But we are still not being able to pull through any sort of meaningful recovery on the benchmark.
44:12 Before we get to the benchmark conversation, just for the sake of continuity, we talked of course about HDFC Bank.
44:21 What are you making of those numbers?
44:23 Do you feel like the reaction has been a little overdone with the way the stock has corrected?
44:27 And also being mindful of the fact that none of the brokerages have downgraded the counter despite numbers being a slight disappointment?
44:34 We have to look at it. We have had 22% top line growth and your NIMS have gone from 4.2 to 3.4.
44:44 So you have taken a 14% hit, effectively you have grown your top line at about 8%.
44:49 And your EPS has turned negative.
44:52 That is a very negative concern for everybody, generally.
44:57 And unless and until your NIMS start coming back or you show some kind of traction around deposit mobilization,
45:05 which will help to boost your NIMS, I think things are going to remain in a kind of a suspended motion in terms of HDFC Bank.
45:17 Before we can expect any re-rating to happen.
45:20 So to that extent, I think we last spoke that our top picks are going to be Axis, Kotak and HDFC Bank in that order.
45:30 And I think that kind of situation is now playing out.
45:34 So when Axis is available at reasonable growth and valuations, with steady NIMS not expecting too much of deterioration out there,
45:44 why venture into stocks where there is growth concerns are happening?
45:50 So I guess that is my take and I think Axis provides a better opportunity than HDFC Bank at this point in time.
45:58 Point taken, Vineet. Axis over HDFC at this point.
46:02 But I'm going to quickly address because we've got Tata Communications numbers, which have just come out.
46:08 You've got revenue, which is up roughly 16% sequential.
46:12 You're also seeing EBITDA, which is up roughly 12% sequential.
46:16 So there's a bit of a margin decline that we are seeing from 20.8 margins have declined to 20.1, around 70 odd bips of decline that we're seeing.
46:24 There's an exceptional loss, which is also at play in Q3.
46:28 I have to try and dig in and understand more on that.
46:30 But outside of that, you're seeing a profit of around 45 crore.
46:34 And if I remove that exceptional loss, you're seeing a profit of roughly 230 crore.
46:39 So not bad at all. Sequential uptick when I'm removing that exceptional loss.
46:44 And you can see that there's a little bit of a spike on the stock on the back of that.
46:48 But we'll discuss that and much more. Lots to address, including Stock of the Day, Samina, which is LTI Minetree.
46:54 On the other side, time for a quick breather. You stay tuned to NDTV Profit.
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