Rip Your Face/Off Rally with David Faber of CNBC

Bullish Studio

See our show notes and transcript: https://riskreversal.com/podcasts/on-the-tape-podcast-rip-your-face-off-rally-with-david-faber-of-cnbc/  Guy, Dan, and Danny discuss Danny’s appearance on Fast Money (2:23), the yield curve inversion steepening (8:13), the conundrum in the jobs market (15:20), meme stocks going bonkers this week (20:06), Elon Musk selling $6.9B in Tesla stock (23:47), Disney’s quarter (26:39), and big box retailers reporting earnings next week (31:18). The co-hosts interview CNBC’s David Faber and talk about his nearly 30 years at CNBC (45:32), reporting during the financial crisis (1:01:11), Elon Musk (1:08:27), the media landscape (1:15:18), and hosting jeopardy (1:22:52).

Transcript

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00:01:20 (upbeat music)

00:01:21 John Woo.

00:01:22 Now you're saying to yourself,

00:01:23 all right, Guy Adami's starting this podcast with John Woo.

00:01:26 Some of you know who John Woo is, director.

00:01:28 He directed the movie Dan Nathan,

00:01:31 Face/Off, 1997 with Nicolas Cage and John Travolta.

00:01:36 Why do I mention that?

00:01:38 Because Nicolas Cage played Castor Troy.

00:01:40 I love Nick Cage, by the way,

00:01:42 but the name of the movie was Face/Off.

00:01:45 And I gotta tell you something, Danny Moses,

00:01:47 this week has been a face ripper of a market.

00:01:51 See what I did there?

00:01:52 So we're gonna talk about that.

00:01:53 We're gonna talk about Danny Moses' appearance

00:01:56 on CNBC's Fast Money.

00:01:58 By the way, we're gonna talk to David Faber,

00:02:01 the brain, in a little while.

00:02:03 I love David Faber.

00:02:04 He's on the Mount Rushmore of CNBC, in my opinion.

00:02:08 And folks, please, leave a review.

00:02:11 Don't tweet us, don't, what, Dan?

00:02:13 What are you gonna do?

00:02:14 No, they can do all of that.

00:02:14 Just leave a review in the podcast store.

00:02:16 Leave a review in your favorite podcast store,

00:02:19 which is one of the dumbest things I've ever said,

00:02:21 and I've said a lot of dumb shit.

00:02:22 By the way, this is On the Tape.

00:02:24 I'm Guy Adami, always joined by Danny Moses,

00:02:28 breathtakingly handsome Danny Moses, by the way,

00:02:30 and the brilliant Dan Nathan, back from Rome, Italy,

00:02:34 from vacation, all fired up.

00:02:36 Before we get into the market,

00:02:38 because I gotta tell you something,

00:02:39 today being Thursday is a fascinating day,

00:02:41 but you were on CNBC's Fast Money,

00:02:44 I believe it was Tuesday night,

00:02:47 and I was sitting next to you,

00:02:48 and I could feel, I could just feel you being tense.

00:02:52 You weren't Danny Moses.

00:02:53 - It's not true.

00:02:54 - I walked in, right, to the Lion's Den, right?

00:02:57 Right before I came on.

00:02:58 You guys play pretty good music,

00:02:59 kind of in the waiting room area.

00:03:00 - Yeah, Led Zeppelin.

00:03:01 - Lil PJ.

00:03:02 - Well, David Bowie was on,

00:03:03 and I don't wanna hear anything.

00:03:05 He's an incredible artist.

00:03:05 - Okay, I know, but please, hold on.

00:03:08 David Bowie--

00:03:09 - It was prophetic, I'm gonna tell you why.

00:03:11 - Is not in my top 50 artists.

00:03:12 - I don't care, but some of his songs are,

00:03:13 so I don't care, he's an amazing artist.

00:03:15 Anyway, it was Let's Dance, right?

00:03:18 And I was walking in, and I'm like,

00:03:21 ♪ Put on your red shoes and dance the blues ♪

00:03:24 That's what the market, so I went in thinking,

00:03:26 just put on your red shoes and dance the blues.

00:03:28 The songs they're playing on the radio,

00:03:29 you gotta dance, right?

00:03:30 You gotta dance, and that's what this market is.

00:03:32 And so, you guys set me up, Fast Money peppered me,

00:03:35 brought me on as the big, short guy who--

00:03:37 - Wait, hold on, that's the job.

00:03:39 - Hold on a second.

00:03:40 I don't know how you guys operate on television.

00:03:42 - I didn't pepper you with, as a matter of fact,

00:03:44 I put a ball in a tee for you.

00:03:46 - I get it, but listen, I come in as the big,

00:03:48 short guy, whatever.

00:03:49 I've been saying all along that inflation

00:03:51 was coming down, right?

00:03:51 I said, don't obsess about a print.

00:03:53 Well, the market's obsessing about CPI.

00:03:55 The market wants to obsess about PPI,

00:03:57 and I was on there saying, listen,

00:03:59 at the end of the day, fundamentals matter more,

00:04:01 and you can dance around.

00:04:02 Am I shocked that the market went up on that number?

00:04:04 Sure, at this point, I should not underestimate

00:04:07 the power of the market at this point.

00:04:08 And listen, the Fed, I don't think they're done yet,

00:04:11 but even if they're done, again,

00:04:13 I'll say the reason I said on Fast Money,

00:04:15 why would they be done?

00:04:16 I think it's a combination of inflation ebbing

00:04:18 and the consumer pulling back,

00:04:20 which in turn makes inflation come down.

00:04:22 - So the folks at home know,

00:04:24 I wouldn't say we have a green room.

00:04:26 We have a closet that is our dressing room

00:04:28 at CNBC's Fast Money at the Nasdaq.

00:04:30 And I brought Danny down there to get makeup on,

00:04:33 and everybody loved him down there.

00:04:35 Then I brought him upstairs, remember that?

00:04:36 And everybody started-- - COVID test.

00:04:37 - COVID tests, and everybody fawned over him.

00:04:40 But then about 15 minutes before the show,

00:04:42 I go to take a leak, which I have to do before the show,

00:04:45 'cause if I don't, Dan Nathan,

00:04:46 something bad's gonna happen during the show.

00:04:49 And as I'm walking by,

00:04:50 I see you reading your notes, talking to yourself.

00:04:53 You were mumbling.

00:04:54 I'm like, "What are you doing?"

00:04:55 I said, "Don't rehearse, don't rehearse."

00:04:57 - Not true, I just didn't wanna get caught.

00:04:59 And then you guys baited me, Mel baited me.

00:05:01 Danny, I know there's a particular short out there

00:05:03 that you like to talk about every so often.

00:05:05 I see you guys smirk.

00:05:06 So this is a setup.

00:05:07 And so yeah, I had to bring-- - It was funny.

00:05:10 - I had to bring up the Tesla, yeah, okay.

00:05:11 - So we got hot on Tesla. - We got hot on Tesla.

00:05:13 It was up $30 the next day. - Listen, you did a great job.

00:05:14 And just so you know, my mom, who is a huge fan--

00:05:17 - Mrs. Nathan. - Mrs. Nathan.

00:05:18 Guy Adami is her number one favorite Fast Money trader.

00:05:22 Just so you know, that's matter of factly.

00:05:24 She gave a quick review.

00:05:25 She said, "Danny has a really nice way about him.

00:05:28 "He did a great job on the show.

00:05:29 "And he subscribes to your wardrobe choices."

00:05:32 'Cause I am jacket, buttoned up, no tie.

00:05:36 And you know what that is, Guy?

00:05:37 What is that wardrobe? - That's the OA outfit.

00:05:39 That's the OA uniform.

00:05:41 - I was just trying to fit in, guys.

00:05:42 I appreciate you guys having me on.

00:05:43 - So let's segue to the market here

00:05:45 because the quote that was probably on CNBC Pro all day

00:05:49 the next day was that equity investors

00:05:51 are whistling through the graveyard.

00:05:53 Okay, so let's talk about it.

00:05:54 - Well, first of all, it's whistling past the graveyard.

00:05:58 I don't know where through, but that's okay.

00:06:00 And you know what, I happen to agree with you.

00:06:02 I mean, I'm totally in your camp.

00:06:04 Just to sort of set the record here,

00:06:06 this move, although later than I thought would happen,

00:06:09 I thought this would end by middle, late July.

00:06:12 Here we are in early August.

00:06:13 With that said, market's done pretty much what it should've.

00:06:16 I mean, Dan Nathan talks about this.

00:06:18 The low of 3,600, the high of 4,800,

00:06:22 the midpoint of that, the 50% Fibonacci

00:06:25 for you Italians out there, retracement, is 4,200.

00:06:28 Here we are, so it makes sense.

00:06:30 I happen to think the next leg is significantly lower.

00:06:33 But that's what they say, Dan Nathan, it makes markets.

00:06:35 - Yeah, no, and I do think it's interesting.

00:06:37 I saw Jim Bianco, Bianco Research,

00:06:40 he tweeted that on March 15th, the S&P 500 was at 4,200.

00:06:45 Okay, that was a day before the Fed started

00:06:48 raising interest rates for the first time since 2018,

00:06:51 25 basis points at the time.

00:06:53 So we have a stock market that's flat in that time period.

00:06:56 We have rates that are up considerably.

00:06:58 I think the 10-year is 2.75 or 2.8 as we talk at the time.

00:07:03 I think it was probably 1.5, 1.7 or something like that.

00:07:06 And then the two-year is obviously much higher,

00:07:08 at 3.2 or something like that.

00:07:10 So I thought that's really interesting context.

00:07:12 Danny, you've been making the point though,

00:07:14 even if Fed funds or the CME Fed funds tracker

00:07:17 has just shifted, right, in the September meeting,

00:07:20 it was a very high probability

00:07:21 of a 75 basis point hike in September.

00:07:24 Now it's a very high probability of 50.

00:07:26 But your point is just wait,

00:07:28 'cause the QT is just kicking in.

00:07:30 - Yeah, I mean, it went from 66% chance of 75 and 33.50

00:07:33 and it flipped, right?

00:07:34 It flips every other day at this point.

00:07:36 If you're telling me they're still going 50

00:07:38 and the market's acting like this,

00:07:39 that's still not great, right?

00:07:40 Because there's a lag effect that we're seeing now

00:07:42 building its way into the market.

00:07:44 And so I still think we have a lot of stuff to get through.

00:07:46 And again, if the Fed fund futures start coming in

00:07:49 and people expect either to stop raising,

00:07:51 which I think they will,

00:07:52 and Dan, you and I have that bet

00:07:53 that I'm probably gonna lose.

00:07:54 - No, no, our bet is that they're gonna cut.

00:07:56 That's different than stop raising.

00:07:58 Okay, I just wanna be really clear.

00:07:59 - I'm not sure what's gonna, but then again,

00:08:01 as soon as that smoke clears, what are we left with?

00:08:03 We're left with earnings that are still

00:08:04 are gonna be coming down.

00:08:05 We're left with a very expensive market.

00:08:07 And we're left more importantly still

00:08:09 with consumers purchasing power coming in regardless.

00:08:12 And so all these rate increases are just beginning

00:08:14 to work their way into the system.

00:08:16 - Dan Nathan, you listen to a lot of podcasts, don't you?

00:08:18 - Yeah, I do.

00:08:19 - Our friend Tommy Vitor, Pod Save America.

00:08:21 - And Pod Save the World.

00:08:23 - Pod Save the World.

00:08:24 Can they do both at the same time?

00:08:26 - Well, I think he's doing his best.

00:08:27 - My sense is if you save the world,

00:08:28 by almost by definition, you'd be saving America.

00:08:31 But that's probably for another show.

00:08:33 What podcast over the last six to nine months

00:08:36 has been saying the 210 spread, two years versus 10 years,

00:08:41 would invert to the tune of 50 basis points

00:08:45 and would happen somewhere around two and a half to 3%.

00:08:49 Two and a half in the 10 year, 3% in the two year.

00:08:53 What pod--

00:08:54 - It was on the tape that Guy Diamond's been saying.

00:08:55 - No, Danny Moses has been saying.

00:08:57 Now, I don't bring that up to pat ourselves on the back.

00:08:59 Apparently people get a bit exercised to use that word.

00:09:02 Again, that we don't do that.

00:09:04 I'm not a big believer in that,

00:09:05 but we do point certain things out.

00:09:08 I only mention it because nobody seems to care.

00:09:11 Nobody seems to be bringing up Danny Moses.

00:09:14 That ain't a good sign.

00:09:15 I don't know.

00:09:16 I'm not an economist,

00:09:17 but a 210's going inverted to the 250 basis points,

00:09:21 which we haven't seen in a considerable amount of time,

00:09:24 is not particularly bullish, my opinion.

00:09:25 - Yeah, we're at 35 now.

00:09:27 I mean, again, volatility is crazy in these.

00:09:30 - Let's just talk about this for a second.

00:09:31 So the last time that we had 50 basis point wide,

00:09:34 210 inverted was early 2000, okay?

00:09:37 - And then yesterday, yeah.

00:09:38 - And then yesterday.

00:09:39 So when you think about that, we're going back 20 years.

00:09:40 We know that we were in a protracted bear market.

00:09:42 We went into a very deep and protracted recession.

00:09:46 I guess the narrative about that rally

00:09:48 after that CPI print that was 8.5% down from 9.1%

00:09:53 the prior month.

00:09:54 I love it how our main man, Dark Brandon,

00:09:56 did you see one on Biden?

00:09:58 - What did you say before that?

00:09:59 - You don't know the meme, the internet meme, Dark Brandon?

00:10:02 - I don't even know what that means.

00:10:03 - Oh, it's so good.

00:10:04 - Dark Brandon.

00:10:05 - Google it, people.

00:10:06 It's basically, they're just talking about how

00:10:08 the guy's kind of on a roll coming off of

00:10:11 very, very low approval rating,

00:10:12 getting a whole heck of a lot of things

00:10:14 not particularly right.

00:10:15 Now all of a sudden,

00:10:16 they got a bunch of legislative stuff done.

00:10:18 They have inflation coming down.

00:10:20 They had crude oil coming down.

00:10:22 Importantly, you saw that in the last month or so,

00:10:24 we had crude go below $5 nationally.

00:10:27 - Gasoline, yep.

00:10:28 - Gasoline, excuse me, at the pump.

00:10:29 And then it just crossed below four.

00:10:31 So like things are kind of coming around

00:10:33 as we get into the fall, in the midterms.

00:10:36 And just so you know, the aforementioned Tommy Vittor,

00:10:38 he's gonna be joining us next week.

00:10:39 - Stop it.

00:10:40 - On the tape. - Stop it.

00:10:41 - And we're gonna be talking about how,

00:10:43 listen, all of this legislative stuff,

00:10:45 I know, Danny, you probably think a lot of this stuff,

00:10:47 the IRA, the Inflation Reduction Act,

00:10:50 is not exactly--

00:10:50 - Mr. Ryan, the IRA is not in the business of legislative.

00:10:53 (laughing)

00:10:54 - But pumping an additional $400 billion into the economy.

00:10:59 - Yeah, I don't know.

00:11:00 I just saw EV tax credits and threw up.

00:11:01 - We're gonna cover all of that stuff,

00:11:03 what it means for the economy

00:11:05 and what it might mean for the midterms.

00:11:07 - You just made me think of something.

00:11:08 So the 10-year yield, I've said all along,

00:11:11 I'd rather see the 10-year yield moving higher

00:11:13 for a healthy economy.

00:11:14 What if the economy is healthier than I think?

00:11:17 What if it is a soft landing?

00:11:18 Well, I'm gonna tell you right now,

00:11:20 with quantitative tightening occurring,

00:11:22 if we do enter a period where this soft landing,

00:11:24 to Guy's point we've made before about,

00:11:26 let's go chase risk assets.

00:11:27 Well, if that 10-year yield starts to make its way,

00:11:29 let's say it makes a move to three and a half or four,

00:11:32 people are delusional.

00:11:33 This economy is not set up, it just isn't.

00:11:35 You've seen what happens to it.

00:11:36 It comes to a screeching halt.

00:11:38 So the Fed does not have our back

00:11:40 the next time the economy wants to make a run

00:11:42 to keep these rates down artificially.

00:11:45 And that to me, it's not for today.

00:11:47 Maybe it's not for tomorrow.

00:11:48 We talk about whistling past the graveyard.

00:11:50 These are things, this is what I'm talking about.

00:11:52 You can take one data point and trade it all you want.

00:11:55 Guess what?

00:11:55 It's coming right back.

00:11:56 - I'm very happy today.

00:11:57 I'm happy that the three of us are together.

00:11:59 We're in this room the size of like,

00:12:00 the rooms in Rome in Europe are very small.

00:12:02 This could be a hotel room, not that it matters.

00:12:05 But question to Danny Moses quickly,

00:12:06 you mentioned Patriot Games, you did a nice accent there.

00:12:09 Is that better or is it the Tommy Lee Jones

00:12:12 in "Blown Away" with Jeff Bridges?

00:12:14 Do you recall that movie?

00:12:15 And Lloyd Bridges.

00:12:16 - I'll take Patriot Games.

00:12:17 - You'll take Patriot Games?

00:12:18 Because the accent, the Tommy Lee Jones,

00:12:20 that was a little annoying, wasn't it?

00:12:22 - Yeah. - It's a good movie.

00:12:22 - I'll take "However Fugitive."

00:12:23 I'll take Tommy Lee with Harrison Ford in "Fugitive,"

00:12:25 put those together right there.

00:12:27 So anyway. - Sorry, Dan.

00:12:28 - Yeah, it's good.

00:12:28 - Well, all right, let's just--

00:12:30 - See the way I throw Dan,

00:12:31 I mean, I can completely throw him off course.

00:12:33 - No, you didn't.

00:12:34 - I did.

00:12:34 - So every outhouse, henhouse, will you do that, Danny?

00:12:37 You must have that with that.

00:12:39 - Boghorn Leghorn?

00:12:40 - Tommy Lee Jones in "The Fugitive,"

00:12:41 what are you saying, you find that man.

00:12:43 - I don't care.

00:12:44 - When he says it didn't kill my wife, yeah, it is.

00:12:46 - I don't care.

00:12:47 Tommy Lee Jones, by the way,

00:12:48 he was Al Gore's roommate at Harvard.

00:12:51 Did you know that?

00:12:52 - Yeah, I did know that.

00:12:53 - Interesting. - Okay, sorry.

00:12:54 - And I also know that Al Gore invented the internet.

00:12:56 - We should have Al Gore on the tape.

00:12:58 - No, he'd be a good guest.

00:13:00 Sorry, Dan, I'm sorry, I'm gonna stop.

00:13:02 Market ripped, soft landing.

00:13:04 That's what the stock market was saying the other day.

00:13:06 That's what investors were saying the other day.

00:13:08 And so your point is you'd feel much better

00:13:10 if the 10-year treasury yield was back above 3%.

00:13:13 It got as high as 3.5%, what, two months ago?

00:13:15 But the suppression of that yield

00:13:17 is basically telling you

00:13:18 that growth is not gonna materialize.

00:13:20 We do this thing called the market call,

00:13:21 you've been on it, Guy and I were talking about it today.

00:13:23 There's a guy called the @macroalf.

00:13:26 He's on Twitter and he's got the macro compass

00:13:29 is his newsletter.

00:13:30 This morning, this is Thursday, he said,

00:13:32 "In short, the soft landing narrative seems misplaced.

00:13:35 "A soft landing implies a marked slowdown in inflation

00:13:38 "while growth remains robust,

00:13:39 "while the direction of the travel seems right,

00:13:41 "lower inflation, growth cooling towards trend.

00:13:44 "The evidence points to a rather steep drop

00:13:46 "in economic activity and not a measured

00:13:49 "and controlled slowdown consistent

00:13:50 "with the Goldilocks," there you go, Guy Adami,

00:13:52 "narrative, grim, forward-looking economic indicators,

00:13:56 "negative real wage growth for the one and a half years

00:13:58 "and the reach of the credit card debt

00:14:00 "to bridge the purchasing power," he goes on and on and on.

00:14:02 All right, so speak to that, Danny,

00:14:03 'cause I think you're probably--

00:14:04 - That's it, that's it, let's wrap it up.

00:14:05 We can leave now.

00:14:06 I mean, no, that's-- - Good, right?

00:14:07 - That's exactly how I feel about everything.

00:14:08 - So you think the economic data starts to get much worse

00:14:11 before it gets better here?

00:14:12 - We saw last week, we are seeing credit turn

00:14:15 for the consumer, end of story period.

00:14:16 Is it horrendous?

00:14:17 No, banks are reserving.

00:14:19 Look at subprime auto.

00:14:20 Look at the amount of repos that are occurring.

00:14:22 We haven't even begun this cycle yet.

00:14:25 So my point is, there's no such thing

00:14:26 as that just bottoming out quickly and coming back.

00:14:28 That is a secular move. - Yes.

00:14:30 - That is a big move.

00:14:31 And the reason that's happening is because, yes,

00:14:33 did credit spreads come in a little bit?

00:14:35 Sure, on this last round of rates coming in, yes.

00:14:37 But credit now, like we've talked about this before,

00:14:40 there's stock picking and there's bond picking.

00:14:42 And if you're an investor in fixed income,

00:14:44 you get to choose from a variety of assets

00:14:46 that you wanna buy, right?

00:14:47 Your long-duration type stuff,

00:14:49 whether it's auto loan, five, seven years, whatever,

00:14:51 maybe student loan, whatever it might be,

00:14:53 those prices have changed.

00:14:54 And now it's not just about I'll buy anything.

00:14:56 It's like, what exactly is that?

00:14:58 So there's diversification

00:14:59 and people are starting to take a look.

00:15:00 And that's what you're gonna start to see.

00:15:02 And I'll end that by saying, Dan,

00:15:04 is that I talked about this, I think,

00:15:06 on Fast Money when you guys set me up,

00:15:08 which was companies that don't have great balance sheets

00:15:11 that are reliant on coming back

00:15:13 to the debt markets for funding,

00:15:14 they're in for a rude awakening

00:15:16 because there is real underwriting

00:15:17 occurring for the first time.

00:15:18 And I know Guy watches the HYG as an indicator of things

00:15:21 and you can look at what it's made up of.

00:15:23 But at the end of the day, if you look at the HYG,

00:15:25 you'll see the top 10 names really tight

00:15:27 and everything else really works.

00:15:28 - It is interesting, though, that this week,

00:15:29 all the worst shit rallied the most.

00:15:31 Here's one thing that going back to just the economy

00:15:34 and how we kind of have this consensus view

00:15:36 that it gets worse before it gets better.

00:15:37 What about this conundrum in the jobs market?

00:15:40 So we had that July jobs print

00:15:42 and then we also have continuing claims.

00:15:43 So continuing claims are starting to tick up a little bit.

00:15:46 We've been documenting a bunch of just kind of layoffs

00:15:48 that we've seen primarily in big tech

00:15:50 for the most part in media.

00:15:51 So is there a scenario where maybe we're wrong?

00:15:55 We've had David Rosenberg,

00:15:56 Rosenberg research on a bunch

00:15:58 and he's been talking about if we had a pickup

00:16:00 from 3.6 unemployment rate, 40 year lows up to 4%,

00:16:02 what that would mean for the economy.

00:16:04 Is there a scenario where we don't see

00:16:06 unemployment pickup meaningfully

00:16:08 and maybe that's how all this stuff goes right, Guy?

00:16:11 - There's no question there are scenarios that exist

00:16:13 where we're wrong, absolutely.

00:16:15 I mean, can it happen?

00:16:16 Without question.

00:16:17 That last unemployment print,

00:16:19 I think surprised a lot of people.

00:16:20 I think the White House clearly was thrilled

00:16:23 and I think to a certain extent,

00:16:25 the market liked that as well.

00:16:27 But I think it's just a matter of time

00:16:29 before you start to see a significant uptick

00:16:32 in unemployment.

00:16:33 It all makes sense in terms of what's going on.

00:16:35 Delinquencies are going higher.

00:16:37 The next step is unemployment starts to tick higher.

00:16:40 The next step is commodities start to tick higher again,

00:16:43 which by the way,

00:16:44 you're starting to see after a precipitous sell off.

00:16:46 So all these things are lining up.

00:16:48 I agree with you, Dan, that scenario exists.

00:16:51 I just don't think it's a likely scenario.

00:16:53 - Guy, if they recast "Happy Days",

00:16:55 you are the natural, not for Laverne,

00:16:57 you're the natural fit for Arthur Fonzarelli.

00:16:59 - I appreciate that.

00:17:00 - And his famous quote, "I was raw."

00:17:02 - Well, he couldn't say it.

00:17:03 - He couldn't say I was wrong.

00:17:05 In this case, we're not wrong.

00:17:06 It's hard to say.

00:17:07 This is why.

00:17:07 Again, in a vacuum, show me that jobs number.

00:17:10 Oh, over 500,000.

00:17:12 Oh, show me CPI, show me PPI, right?

00:17:15 Show me all those things.

00:17:16 You can craft a scenario when you look within all those.

00:17:18 And we all know how unreliable the jobs numbers can be.

00:17:21 But Guy, you just said it.

00:17:22 The layoffs are just starting now.

00:17:23 So those are backward looking things.

00:17:25 So is PPI, so is CPI.

00:17:27 Everyone knew that energy prices have come down.

00:17:29 You knew that the numbers would probably be

00:17:31 a little bit lower because those estimates are made

00:17:34 a little bit ahead of time.

00:17:34 Anyway, so just to try to piecemeal,

00:17:36 but take a step back, just go in the street

00:17:39 and in the city that you're in and just ask people

00:17:42 just to get their temperature on how are things.

00:17:44 I said this a couple of weeks ago.

00:17:45 We underappreciated how good we had it,

00:17:48 not even as an investor, as a consumer for so long.

00:17:52 And it's now, it has changed and that's not going back.

00:17:54 - Well, that's the thing that we just haven't seen.

00:17:55 You just mentioned this a couple of minutes ago.

00:17:57 We're starting to see like subprime delinquencies

00:17:59 across the board.

00:18:00 And so we're seeing this rent spiral higher.

00:18:02 I get all that.

00:18:03 I think bringing it back to the stock market though,

00:18:06 I see Apple is down less than 5% on the year.

00:18:09 I see Microsoft is down less than 15% on the year.

00:18:12 - Stop for a second on Microsoft.

00:18:13 Let's talk about Microsoft for one second.

00:18:15 - Do you understand my point?

00:18:16 - 100%.

00:18:17 - We have five and a half trillion dollars of market cap

00:18:19 and Apple this week was nearly 8% of the S&P 500,

00:18:23 the highest that any one single company has been

00:18:26 of that index of 500 stocks.

00:18:28 So I guess my point is, it's like,

00:18:30 we've had this conversation plenty of times this year,

00:18:33 is that we could be right on the economy.

00:18:36 We could be right on what the Fed has to do

00:18:38 and when they have to pivot,

00:18:39 but you could be wrong in the stock market.

00:18:41 - 100%.

00:18:42 - Let's be clear.

00:18:43 - Say it all the time.

00:18:43 - Oh, it's clear to me.

00:18:45 - Let's quickly talk about Microsoft.

00:18:47 You brought it up.

00:18:47 I mean, Microsoft had been trending lower.

00:18:50 Microsoft obviously guided lower a month,

00:18:53 two months ago, whatever it was, late June,

00:18:56 on currency, which is whatever.

00:18:59 Microsoft, when they reported the stock closed

00:19:01 that afternoon, I believe it was 254.

00:19:04 If you go back and look, I'm sure somebody will @ me,

00:19:06 but ish.

00:19:07 The knee-jerk reaction, Dan, to that report,

00:19:10 'cause I was watching it, it traded down to 242.

00:19:14 Headed lower until they came out and said,

00:19:17 and oh, by the way, we're not seeing a drop off at all

00:19:20 in terms of demand.

00:19:21 And that's when the stock went from negative

00:19:23 and it's never looked back.

00:19:24 Number one, Apple, for example, you say, great quarter.

00:19:28 Yeah, I mean, huge numbers.

00:19:30 2% year-over-year revenue growth.

00:19:32 When was the last time you saw that from Apple?

00:19:34 Market didn't seem to care,

00:19:36 but that wasn't a great quarter by Apple standards,

00:19:38 by any stretch.

00:19:39 The reaction was great.

00:19:42 The reaction to Microsoft was great.

00:19:44 The reaction to Google was great.

00:19:46 They weren't great quarters by their standards,

00:19:49 in my opinion.

00:19:50 - People hiding quality.

00:19:51 - But if they're hiding in that quality,

00:19:52 we were talking about like $10 trillion in market cap,

00:19:55 we're talking about 45% of the NASDAQ 100,

00:19:57 that could keep the whole stock market game

00:20:00 intact for a while.

00:20:00 - So we had this exact conversation nine months ago.

00:20:03 This was happening, the market was,

00:20:05 and the quality was kinda, and we said,

00:20:06 the risk is that the big guys will start

00:20:08 coming down one by one, you know,

00:20:09 soldier, soldier, soldier, they would start coming down,

00:20:12 and it did.

00:20:13 Apple, Microsoft, they all sold off 30% from their highs.

00:20:15 - Right, and now what's crazy about this last rally is,

00:20:18 I can live with an Apple rally, Microsoft,

00:20:20 those are good companies, right?

00:20:21 They're not going anywhere.

00:20:22 - They're great companies.

00:20:22 - No, I mean, Foxconn just told us that things are slow,

00:20:24 but that's a whole 'nother issue.

00:20:26 It's this meme stock rebellion again that's occurring,

00:20:28 and it's just shit, but when you start to see

00:20:30 even more so, the violent moves,

00:20:32 if anyone out there that's looking at the market

00:20:34 thinks that's healthy, it's not.

00:20:35 Good for you if you can buy AMC at 15 and sell it at 25,

00:20:39 but you won't.

00:20:39 - I just don't think anybody who's listening to this podcast

00:20:42 is buying AMC bed, bath, and--

00:20:44 - Dan, I disagree. - No, I mean that.

00:20:45 In GameStop, I do not-- - I know for a fact they are.

00:20:46 - Hey, just send us a note.

00:20:48 Tell us if you are, 'cause I just don't think they are.

00:20:50 - Really?

00:20:51 - I think it's a bunch of kids in the Reddit crowd

00:20:53 or whatever, they're still--

00:20:54 - Dan, it put Melvin Capital out of business,

00:20:56 who's now being investigated by the SBA.

00:20:57 - Yeah, they were short it.

00:20:58 - I understand, but it was a name

00:20:59 that's been front and center.

00:21:00 People feel empowered.

00:21:01 Let me just finish my thought here.

00:21:02 - Yes, please.

00:21:03 - Coinbase. - Yes.

00:21:04 - Great.

00:21:05 Let's sign a deal with BlackRock

00:21:06 to be on their Aladdin platform, right,

00:21:07 to trade just Bitcoin.

00:21:09 - Stock went from 78 to 104 on the back of that-ish.

00:21:12 - Quarter lost a billion dollars.

00:21:14 - Yes. - Okay, it's a joke.

00:21:15 - Yes. - Okay, and I'm not even,

00:21:16 I have no position in the name,

00:21:18 but it doesn't take a rocket science

00:21:19 to take a step back and tell you

00:21:21 that people get impatient.

00:21:22 "Hey, how'd the quarter go at Aladdin?

00:21:24 "What were your revenues associated with?"

00:21:26 Oh, didn't happen yet?

00:21:27 I mean, it's the market has been

00:21:28 about immediate gratification continuously.

00:21:30 I'm not saying you have to go out and short Coinbase here.

00:21:33 I'm just gonna tell you it's not a long.

00:21:34 - Well, just so you know, I mean,

00:21:35 we were talking about it on the set of Fast Money,

00:21:37 I think it was Tuesday night, that they reported,

00:21:39 and the stock was down 10% in the aftermarket.

00:21:42 It was a horrible quarter.

00:21:43 I mean, the guidance was horrible.

00:21:44 - They're laying off, they work for the-

00:21:46 - Horrible quarter, but then we had that CPI print

00:21:49 the next day, markets raging, and it closed up 5, 6, 7%.

00:21:53 Now, I will mention, though, today-

00:21:54 - I don't mean to interrupt,

00:21:55 but you think about the absurdity of that,

00:21:57 because the market's higher,

00:21:59 that, I mean, all this shit rally,

00:22:00 that's what your point is, Danny Moses.

00:22:02 Like, knock yourself out.

00:22:03 Go at it, people.

00:22:04 That's you, Dan.

00:22:05 - No, have at it, have at it.

00:22:06 - Oh, have at it.

00:22:07 Go at it.

00:22:08 - Tonight at Madison Square Garden,

00:22:09 Rage Against the Machine is playing tonight in the garden.

00:22:11 I think that's, you know, kind of the-

00:22:13 - They've been playing all week, actually.

00:22:15 - Have they really?

00:22:16 - I think they have five shows.

00:22:16 Just real quickly, though, but I think it's interesting.

00:22:18 Keep an eye, you just mentioned that gap

00:22:21 that it had up to 104.

00:22:22 - Yes.

00:22:23 - It's about to fill in that entire gap now.

00:22:24 So we had this two-way action all week,

00:22:26 and I just think that's really important.

00:22:28 So if you see this stock, Coinbase,

00:22:30 heading back towards that, I don't know,

00:22:32 70s sort of level or something like that.

00:22:35 What has been transitory this year

00:22:37 has been the interest in memes and crypto

00:22:39 and some of that stuff. - Oh, I like that you did that.

00:22:40 - No, I mean that sincerely. - No, you're right.

00:22:41 - I poo-pooed a little bit, Danny,

00:22:43 'cause I don't know anybody other than

00:22:45 anonymous trolls on the internet

00:22:47 who are trading those stocks.

00:22:48 I just don't.

00:22:49 But you're thinking about it from a sentiment standpoint.

00:22:51 It just speaks to-

00:22:52 - It has been the perfect indicator

00:22:53 for the mania on both sides.

00:22:55 It's been the mania for over-

00:22:56 - Listen, there are good stocks on both sides, Danny.

00:22:58 - I see what you did there.

00:22:59 - You see what I did there?

00:23:00 - I see what Dan did there.

00:23:01 - That's an episode title right there.

00:23:02 - Oh, I thought Face/Off would be,

00:23:04 that's why I mentioned Nick Cage.

00:23:06 - When you were doing John Woo,

00:23:07 I thought you were gonna go with Mission Impossible 2.

00:23:10 - Right. - Mission Impossible 2.

00:23:11 - I could have done that.

00:23:12 - They bagged, I think Brian De Palma,

00:23:14 I think he directed the first Mission Impossible.

00:23:17 - You know Tom Cruise just turned like 60 years old?

00:23:20 No, he looks great.

00:23:21 No, I loved, Tom, I say this all the time,

00:23:24 I'll watch anything he does.

00:23:25 He's brilliant, sorry.

00:23:26 I wonder if he listens to on the tape.

00:23:28 - I don't think so.

00:23:29 I think you've said in the past

00:23:31 that you'd watch him read the phone book.

00:23:33 - It's absolutely true, he's genius.

00:23:35 Say what you, I don't care about the Scientology

00:23:37 and all that, is he wacky?

00:23:39 I'm a little wacky.

00:23:40 - Yeah, a little wacky.

00:23:40 - But the guy's a genius and he does all his own shit.

00:23:43 - It's funny about Scientology

00:23:44 and I know that all of our listeners

00:23:45 who are Scientologists are gonna get really pissed off

00:23:47 about three of them.

00:23:48 You could say you don't care about it.

00:23:50 It's like a really weird cult.

00:23:52 - Yeah, I mean, and it's dangerous.

00:23:53 - There are a lot of that going around.

00:23:56 So is owning Tesla, by the way.

00:23:57 Speaking of Tesla, by the way, can we talk about--

00:24:00 - Oh, there it is.

00:24:00 - No, let's talk about it.

00:24:01 Because today again, we're doing this on Thursday.

00:24:04 Price action is really interesting, once again.

00:24:07 And we talked about that 900 level.

00:24:09 You know what, now you're pair of twos here.

00:24:11 If you're betting long on Tesla, you know what?

00:24:13 There are probably better places to be.

00:24:15 I think this stock may have exhausted itself.

00:24:17 I think it may have happened this week

00:24:19 that Danny's not gonna be with us.

00:24:21 You're like, of course it did.

00:24:22 - No, I don't. - What are your thoughts?

00:24:23 'Cause the price action is a little weird today.

00:24:25 A little strange.

00:24:26 - Just so you know, Danny, the other night,

00:24:27 I think the Wall Street Journal broke this story

00:24:29 late at night that Elon sold another 6.9 billion.

00:24:33 What a juvenile little you know what.

00:24:35 Okay, $6.9 billion worth of stock.

00:24:38 And Danny sends me the SEC filing.

00:24:40 He texts me, okay, and he goes, "Nighty night, Dan."

00:24:44 (laughing)

00:24:45 - Hasn't gone up since then.

00:24:46 Actually, it's gone back down.

00:24:47 - I'm just saying. - All right, whatever.

00:24:48 - You know I'm with you on the short, okay?

00:24:49 - There's a senator and a house member now

00:24:51 that are demanding the NHTSA open a hearing,

00:24:54 have an investigation into this full self-driving--

00:24:56 - Hold on one sec, real, I want you to talk about this.

00:24:58 - I don't want to talk about it.

00:24:59 - No, no, no, I want you to talk about it.

00:25:01 I was watching the TV last night, I don't know what.

00:25:03 Oh, I'll tell, no, no, no, no.

00:25:04 No, the Yankees lost in the afternoon.

00:25:06 I'm watching this commercial.

00:25:07 So this cat, Dan O'Dowd, a California software,

00:25:11 what's a magnet, oh, a magnate,

00:25:14 he's spending millions of his own dollars

00:25:16 in a brutal crusade to take down Elon Musk.

00:25:18 I'm watching this commercial, I'm like,

00:25:20 I thought Danny Moses, I literally thought

00:25:22 you were gonna be in the commercial at any point.

00:25:24 And I'm watching this, I'm like,

00:25:25 I gotta call Danny Moses, then I fell asleep, I'm sorry.

00:25:27 - The guy's not dumb enough to be short the stock.

00:25:29 He just wants to spend the money, he wants to like--

00:25:32 - No, he wants to out it, he doesn't think the cars are safe

00:25:34 and he's had it with this whole game.

00:25:35 But anyway, we'll see what happens.

00:25:36 - Anyway, the stock, the price action in the stock,

00:25:39 I think it's something to take note of this week, for sure.

00:25:41 - I do too, we can move on from that.

00:25:43 And I know you're having a guest later

00:25:45 that you're probably gonna talk to about.

00:25:46 - David Faber.

00:25:47 David Faber and Dan Nathan, you guys go out to dinner,

00:25:49 what are you gonna do, like Port Charles?

00:25:51 Isn't that where they do General Hospital?

00:25:53 - Jeez, what are we doing here?

00:25:54 - I mean--

00:25:55 - Fort Charles, where's the name of the--

00:25:56 - Fort Charles.

00:25:57 - Fort?

00:25:58 - You're coming tonight, guy.

00:25:59 - I know, Fort, the number Fort Charles.

00:26:01 - Wait, you got Guy to go out tonight?

00:26:03 - So you know what we did?

00:26:03 This is how we did it.

00:26:04 - This is underhanded, actually.

00:26:06 - Karen Feinerman.

00:26:07 - Oh, like me on Fast Money?

00:26:08 - Guy and myself, we each picked our favorite child.

00:26:11 - No, no, no, don't say that,

00:26:12 not that my sons listen to this, no.

00:26:15 My daughter's home, and Dan knows Lily.

00:26:18 Lily actually worked for us at Risk Reversal.

00:26:20 - Yes.

00:26:21 - Anyway, all right.

00:26:22 Well, I look forward to hearing about your dinner.

00:26:24 Danny's got his, you have a anniversary dinner tonight,

00:26:27 you and your lovely wife, Alison, huh?

00:26:28 - Yeah, we do.

00:26:29 - Where are you guys going?

00:26:30 - I don't know.

00:26:31 - What are you doing?

00:26:32 - I don't know.

00:26:33 - You have no plan?

00:26:33 - I'm surprised.

00:26:34 - You didn't do anything?

00:26:35 - Maybe a little Home Depot, a little Bed Bath and Beyond.

00:26:36 - I don't know, I don't know.

00:26:37 - I don't know, it's gonna be great.

00:26:38 - It tastes so good when it touches your lips.

00:26:38 - It's gonna be good, yeah.

00:26:39 - All right, so listen, we're totally off the rails here.

00:26:42 Let's talk about some consumer discretionary,

00:26:43 'cause when you hear people talk about XLY,

00:26:46 the Consumer Discretionary ETF,

00:26:47 it's really important to understand that Tesla's the,

00:26:49 what, the second largest holding in that.

00:26:51 Okay, so let's move on though.

00:26:53 We got big box retailers reporting next week.

00:26:55 We had Disney last night report a good quarter, okay?

00:26:59 Parks were strong.

00:27:00 Well, let's get your take on that.

00:27:01 They basically lowered guidance for subs,

00:27:04 raised prices on Disney Plus subscriptions,

00:27:08 generally a pretty upbeat sort of outlook.

00:27:10 What's your take?

00:27:11 And then Danny, I know that you have some.

00:27:12 - So as you know, Dan, Disney starts with the letter D,

00:27:16 so that's the D in my Dawn trade.

00:27:18 And I will tell you, if I'm being fully honest,

00:27:21 I think at the time of this, when we put it on

00:27:23 or talked about it in November,

00:27:24 I think Disney was like $142 stock.

00:27:26 Traded down in the '80s.

00:27:29 It was an 80 at an 80 handle at one point,

00:27:31 which is too cheap.

00:27:32 My point about Disney is this.

00:27:34 It, for years, warranted a premium valuation.

00:27:38 It lost that over the last six months.

00:27:41 I think this quarter suggests

00:27:42 maybe they should have it back.

00:27:44 And parks were very good.

00:27:46 I've always thought that Disney Plus

00:27:48 was a bit of a loss leader

00:27:50 in this spoken wheel business that they've created.

00:27:53 And if you look at Parks Strong,

00:27:55 their media business strong,

00:27:57 I think if you give them a 25 multiple,

00:28:00 which is sort of historically where it's traded, Dan,

00:28:03 on the $6-ish that they're gonna earn next year,

00:28:07 we can all do that math, it's $150 stock.

00:28:09 So although it didn't trade particularly well today

00:28:12 on the back of those earnings,

00:28:13 I still think Disney's okay here.

00:28:15 - And they added 14.4 million subscribers.

00:28:18 - More subs now than Netflix.

00:28:20 - Correct, more than Netflix.

00:28:21 That was impressive.

00:28:22 They're raising prices.

00:28:23 We'll see what the lag effect is,

00:28:24 if people cancel or not,

00:28:26 but they're still way cheaper than cable

00:28:27 and they have better channels,

00:28:28 so it probably won't happen.

00:28:29 And the only reason that they lowered

00:28:31 their streaming subs in the future

00:28:32 was because they lost to Viacom on Indian cricket,

00:28:34 which we knew that happened in June.

00:28:35 - On what?

00:28:36 - Yeah, people watch cricket, guy.

00:28:37 You know how much Viacom paid for that?

00:28:39 $3 billion was the rights that they paid.

00:28:41 So I don't know how this math works.

00:28:43 I don't know how it works.

00:28:44 - But this is why trading is hard, right?

00:28:45 So I remember one night on Fast Money,

00:28:47 we were talking about Disney,

00:28:48 this was like a few weeks ago,

00:28:49 the stock was maybe, I don't know,

00:28:50 in the low 90s or something.

00:28:51 - 95.

00:28:52 - And I said, you know what?

00:28:53 I would really look to start buying this thing

00:28:55 with an eight handle on it.

00:28:56 And somebody asked me, he was like,

00:28:57 "Dude, can I get a deck?"

00:28:58 And the low during the pandemic,

00:29:00 it was a panic low in early March, I think,

00:29:03 or March-ish of 2020, was about 80, right?

00:29:06 And the high after that into 2021,

00:29:09 I mean, literally early 2021,

00:29:11 was above $200. - I know.

00:29:12 - And you're saying put $25 on six bucks,

00:29:15 pre-pandemic, I don't think this year

00:29:17 they were supposed to earn six bucks, okay?

00:29:19 So it just shows you how frothy things got in 2021.

00:29:23 Then you have a move from 200 down to 90,

00:29:26 and I'm trying to nitpick whether I wanna buy it

00:29:28 at 93 or 83.

00:29:30 And here we are, it got as high as 120 yesterday.

00:29:33 And I'm just saying, that's why this game is hard.

00:29:35 My final trade on Tuesday,

00:29:37 the day that Danny just lit up Fast Money,

00:29:39 was that I would not be a buyer into the Disney print.

00:29:42 - Yeah, but you didn't short it.

00:29:44 - I didn't short it, I didn't say to sell it

00:29:45 or anything like that.

00:29:46 But trading is hard, right, Danny?

00:29:48 - Trading is hard, and I will say

00:29:49 that park attendance was very strong.

00:29:51 Now you know where all the money is being spent,

00:29:53 $25 hamburgers and so forth, but yeah.

00:29:55 - You said this, go on the street.

00:29:57 I'll just say again, I was traveling over the last week.

00:29:58 I've been traveling a lot this summer.

00:30:00 I've been spending a lot on travel.

00:30:02 And when you look around,

00:30:03 a lot of people are doing those experiential sort of things.

00:30:06 I mean, that is matter of fact.

00:30:08 But I guess the point is, is like at some point,

00:30:10 if we do start to see unemployment tick up,

00:30:13 we've seen rents go up, we're seeing all this stuff.

00:30:14 Even if you're paying $4 a gallon at the pump,

00:30:18 it's still much higher than $3 a year ago.

00:30:20 - What Disney has now that they didn't have before,

00:30:22 and it's probably priced in at this point,

00:30:24 is they actually have both sides of it.

00:30:26 They have the stay at home side on the streaming,

00:30:28 and then they go out and do stuff.

00:30:29 - So you're saying there's good consumers on both sides?

00:30:31 - Yeah, again, I'm just saying.

00:30:33 I'm just saying that they definitely

00:30:34 have a defense mechanism that's now built into the model

00:30:37 that probably warrants a little bit higher multiple

00:30:38 in the future.

00:30:39 - Yeah, I agree.

00:30:40 And that was sort of the argument for Disney

00:30:42 that they were able to sort of be on either side,

00:30:44 the reopen trade, yes, the COVID trade, yes.

00:30:45 - All right, but hold on, hold on, hold on.

00:30:47 The parks business does not deserve to be at 25 times.

00:30:50 And let me tell you something.

00:30:50 - I didn't say that.

00:30:51 - And then when you think about the hundreds,

00:30:53 the hundreds, okay, of millions of dollars

00:30:56 they're losing on the streaming business.

00:30:57 - Wait for it, Dan, wait for it, Dan.

00:30:58 I don't want to rush this.

00:30:59 This, Dan, is what we call in the business,

00:31:01 a blended multiple.

00:31:03 See what I did there?

00:31:04 A blended multiple over there,

00:31:06 four-ish different businesses.

00:31:08 Back to you.

00:31:09 - Yeah, but I guess the point is, Danny,

00:31:10 if you don't think we're out of the woods yet,

00:31:12 it's kind of hard to chase a stock like this.

00:31:14 - Oh, that's fair.

00:31:15 - Let's broaden this out a little bit to big boxes.

00:31:17 We know that we had that Walmart pre-announcement.

00:31:19 - Isn't that a Spinal Tap song?

00:31:21 - Yeah, we had that Walmart pre-announcement.

00:31:23 The stock had that big gap,

00:31:24 and then it proceeded to fill in that entire gap.

00:31:27 So talk to us a little bit about what you're expecting

00:31:29 from some of these names.

00:31:30 We have Lowe's, we have Home Depot.

00:31:31 We have a lot of big box retailers

00:31:34 reporting next week.

00:31:35 - Why should they be resilient,

00:31:37 or why should they not be under the same guidelines

00:31:40 as a target of Walmart?

00:31:41 In other words, they shouldn't be impervious

00:31:44 to the ills of a Walmart and Target.

00:31:46 I think you're gonna see,

00:31:47 I don't think to the extent you saw it

00:31:48 with Walmart and Target,

00:31:50 but I think you're gonna see inventory concerns

00:31:52 for both those, and I think it was Citi, Dan,

00:31:55 that downgraded Lowe's today, today being Thursday.

00:31:58 So I think that's a good downgrade.

00:32:00 I think valuations don't make sense.

00:32:02 And again, I don't think they're gonna be impervious

00:32:04 to the same ills that basically upset the people

00:32:08 in Target and Walmart.

00:32:09 - I think you have a different clientele in all of those,

00:32:11 and they're obviously affected more,

00:32:13 Lowe's and Home Depot are obviously by the housing market.

00:32:16 So this doesn't take brilliant scientists or an analyst

00:32:19 to look and say there has to be a lag effect

00:32:21 on what that looks like.

00:32:22 Oh, we didn't sell as many grills.

00:32:23 Oh, we sold some umbrellas.

00:32:25 So I think it comes down to merchandising

00:32:27 and what people are carrying

00:32:28 and what they're willing to mark down.

00:32:29 Walmart's gonna be interesting again,

00:32:30 because we just got a snapshot pre-fed a couple weeks ago.

00:32:34 Now we're gonna get an update.

00:32:35 Let's see what they say.

00:32:36 Let's see if they're seeing any type of pickup.

00:32:37 Back to school.

00:32:38 - Listen, I don't think, Walmart, it's a great company.

00:32:41 It takes more than a couple quarters

00:32:43 to get out of that inventory problem that they have.

00:32:46 The 32% inventory build we saw there

00:32:48 was, in a word, catastrophic.

00:32:50 8% is typically catastrophic.

00:32:53 32 is four times eight, is that right?

00:32:55 So it stands to reason it's four times worse.

00:32:58 Back to you.

00:32:59 - I think Danny just made a really good point,

00:33:00 because again, that Walmart pre-announcement

00:33:02 a few weeks ago, they didn't give us everything

00:33:04 that we needed to know to kind of take a look

00:33:06 and get the health of the consumer.

00:33:07 - Under the kimono.

00:33:09 - But back in the spring, remember we were remarking

00:33:11 how companies like Snapchat had pre-announced,

00:33:13 I think it was a month after they had just reported

00:33:16 and given guidance, and then Microsoft did the same thing.

00:33:19 Well, we just got one from Micron to start this week.

00:33:21 Micron reported on June 30th, and then I think at the time--

00:33:26 - It's in August quarter, right?

00:33:27 - The quarter the guidance was deemed to be pretty good.

00:33:29 They just pre-announced it.

00:33:30 Nvidia guided down for the quarter revenues, down 17%,

00:33:35 which is a massive guide.

00:33:36 This was a company that was gonna be

00:33:38 the next trillion dollar market cap company late last year.

00:33:41 Okay, got cut in half or so.

00:33:43 I just think that again, we're so obsessed

00:33:45 on an economic recession, and there's all the semantics

00:33:47 about what that is.

00:33:49 The idea that the S&P 500 could go

00:33:51 into an earnings recession, that seems a bit more likely

00:33:55 than maybe an economic recession,

00:33:57 however you want to define it.

00:33:58 Nvidia took revenue from 8.1 billion expected

00:34:01 down to 6.7 billion, to put some numbers.

00:34:03 You gave a percentage, I'll give you some numbers.

00:34:05 Number one, they blamed it on gaming.

00:34:08 Okay, that's fine.

00:34:09 They said data center's gonna be fine.

00:34:11 Maybe it will be, but I gotta tell you something.

00:34:13 Gaming's first.

00:34:14 If they miss on data center, and I think Nvidia reports

00:34:17 on the 24th, they just pre-announced.

00:34:19 They didn't give you the quarter.

00:34:21 That's gonna be a problem, and it's still an expensive stock,

00:34:24 and that's a name that everybody universally loved

00:34:27 a year ago.

00:34:28 Now everybody's starting to get a little wishy-washy,

00:34:30 and the Micron was the same thing.

00:34:31 Micron is de-ramonant, I get it's different,

00:34:34 but this is one after another.

00:34:36 We're starting to see these guides,

00:34:37 and I gotta tell you something.

00:34:38 At a certain point, it becomes a trend.

00:34:40 - The only problem that I have with Nvidia right now,

00:34:42 I don't mind seeing huge downgrades to guidance right there,

00:34:45 is that this is a $450 billion market company

00:34:49 that's down 40% on the year,

00:34:50 down more from its all-time highs,

00:34:52 that still trades at 14 times sales.

00:34:55 - Which is expensive.

00:34:56 - That's kind of my main point.

00:34:57 - As you say, that number should be a hat size.

00:35:00 Maybe it's a guy at Dommy hat size.

00:35:02 - Yeah, seven and three eights.

00:35:03 - Thank you.

00:35:04 - Seven and three eights.

00:35:04 - So a name that we've talked about on the show.

00:35:06 - You're eight and three eights.

00:35:07 I'm looking at that dome right now.

00:35:08 You're eight and three eights.

00:35:09 - No, when I played football, I had a special.

00:35:11 - Yeah, no, you had a call like the NFL teams to get a helmet.

00:35:13 - And when my hair gets like this, it's crazy.

00:35:15 I can't even put on a baseball cap.

00:35:16 But SoftBank, right, which is the epitome of all of this.

00:35:19 - Kyle, I'm gonna stop for one second on SoftBank.

00:35:21 I mean, they say you don't ring the bells on the,

00:35:23 well, guess what, with WeWork, they rang the effing bell.

00:35:26 I remember that.

00:35:27 I mean, they invested at WeWork

00:35:28 at like a $52 billion value.

00:35:30 Is that right, Dan?

00:35:31 Something crazy.

00:35:32 - It was up there and the thing blew up.

00:35:33 - And then they're selling out of SoFi here

00:35:35 because they, the self, I mean, these guys are horrible.

00:35:38 - Uber was a disaster.

00:35:38 - Anyway, Danny, pause.

00:35:40 - Thank you, you just did that.

00:35:40 So quote, the market.

00:35:41 - Wait, is this your rot or no?

00:35:43 - Whatever, sure.

00:35:44 The market in the world is in confusion.

00:35:46 Okay, that's, I kind of agree with that.

00:35:47 - Masa's son.

00:35:48 - Masa's son.

00:35:49 Gonna be more selective in what we put into the fund.

00:35:51 - Thank you.

00:35:52 - And less hunches.

00:35:53 So I had a rot a year ago.

00:35:54 - A hunch.

00:35:55 - About, he goes by hunches and he does these things.

00:35:57 And you know what?

00:35:58 They lost 22 billion in the quarter

00:36:00 and now they're forced to sell everything

00:36:01 that's not nailed down because remember,

00:36:03 he put up the Alibaba shares

00:36:04 and borrowed against those shares.

00:36:06 - That's called leverage.

00:36:07 - Yeah, it's called leverage and now it's margin call time.

00:36:09 So now he's selling down, we saw that news today,

00:36:12 Alibaba, he sold his Uber, right?

00:36:14 He's selling things that he has to now.

00:36:15 And you know what also funny I was thinking about?

00:36:17 So I'll save my comments here for the Live Tour

00:36:20 another time, but the reason people hate the Live Tour

00:36:22 is because it's backed by Saudi.

00:36:24 Well, the entire First Vision Fund was backed by the same,

00:36:26 but no one ever--

00:36:27 - Jared's new bang up fund is backed by the Saudis.

00:36:30 - Both sides.

00:36:31 So anyway, so I can go on and on,

00:36:32 but he's now out of the market.

00:36:33 He basically said, I just have to wait now,

00:36:35 I'm not gonna basically invest in anything.

00:36:37 And now he's getting sued.

00:36:38 So that same suit from Credit Suisse related to Greensil

00:36:41 that SoftBank was using Greensil to prop up

00:36:43 Katerra construction in the US,

00:36:44 that's a whole nother lawsuit.

00:36:45 So he has retrenched.

00:36:47 Now you would think the timing of that would mean

00:36:49 that the market may have bottomed

00:36:50 because normally you see those things, but he's out.

00:36:52 So that was the largest,

00:36:53 one of the largest buyers of things

00:36:55 we've seen in his private portfolio,

00:36:56 similar to we saw with Tiger

00:36:58 and some of these other markdowns

00:36:59 which have occurred in general.

00:37:01 But to me, I don't think the market's paying

00:37:02 enough attention to that.

00:37:04 People saw it was coming, they were short the name.

00:37:06 I have no position in the name,

00:37:07 but just look at it, read through that queue.

00:37:09 - So I'm gonna say a couple of things here.

00:37:10 Just allow me, please Dan,

00:37:12 please don't do the eye roll

00:37:13 that my daughter typically does, okay?

00:37:15 So a couple of things, you mentioned On and On,

00:37:18 Danny Moses, that's a great song by Stephen Bishop

00:37:20 who was in the movie Animal House, if you recall.

00:37:22 He was the guy sitting on the stairs.

00:37:24 - John Belushi took his guitar.

00:37:25 - And he didn't know it was gonna happen.

00:37:26 Belushi, oh yeah, was a complete ad lib.

00:37:28 - Just blast that guitar.

00:37:29 - That was filmed at Oregon.

00:37:30 You were there on set, I believe, when it was made.

00:37:32 - University of Oregon, the Ducks.

00:37:34 - Yeah, the Ducks.

00:37:34 - Number one.

00:37:35 Number two, what we haven't even brought up here

00:37:38 is the Fed, we talked about the Fed, Fed, Fed.

00:37:40 They haven't even started reducing their balance sheet.

00:37:43 As a matter of fact, last I looked,

00:37:44 balance sheets actually seem to have gone higher, Dan, higher.

00:37:48 So what happens when they start balance sheet reduction?

00:37:51 I don't know, doesn't seem to auger particularly well.

00:37:53 And the thing about SoftBank, and I said it at the time,

00:37:56 one of the many unintended,

00:37:58 or maybe it was intended, consequences of easy money,

00:38:02 it allowed people to do really dumb things.

00:38:04 And now we're seeing the after effect of exactly that.

00:38:07 - Listen, investing in Alibaba 22 years ago

00:38:10 was a smart thing, give him credit for that.

00:38:12 But he took that, basically, and some other small winners,

00:38:15 that wasn't a small winner, but some other ones,

00:38:17 and he just basically became what he thought was impervious,

00:38:21 what he thought was invincible.

00:38:22 And now you're seeing the full circle.

00:38:23 But there's no one to oust him, right?

00:38:25 He's kind of the guy that runs the fund.

00:38:27 And now the Vision 2 fund lost a lot of its commitments,

00:38:30 and now it's retrenching, and they're gonna play defense.

00:38:32 - This was fun, I had fun.

00:38:34 I have fun all the time.

00:38:35 - They call it IRL, we're all in the same room.

00:38:36 We're all in the same little closet.

00:38:37 - So Dan, I got a question.

00:38:38 - Wait a second, hold on, let's stop for a second.

00:38:40 They call what?

00:38:41 - IRL, the kids.

00:38:42 - Who's they? - In real life.

00:38:44 - Oh, that's what that means.

00:38:44 - Yeah, that means we're not on Skype or Zoom.

00:38:47 - IRL, in real life.

00:38:49 - Now we're gonna work our way into the summer doldrums,

00:38:51 right, after next week, it's gonna get,

00:38:53 you know, it's kind of like people are in and out.

00:38:54 Dan, what is the S&P up right now in August?

00:38:58 Just curious what it is.

00:38:59 - What is it up in the month of August?

00:39:01 - Yeah, to date, right now, into the close here on Thursday.

00:39:04 Just curious how quick he is.

00:39:06 Bloomberg.

00:39:07 - My fax machine says the S&P is up 1.9%,

00:39:10 the NASDAQ's up 3.2%.

00:39:12 - Shawshank Redemption.

00:39:13 - Oh.

00:39:14 - It's gonna get up and disappear

00:39:15 like a thought in the wind,

00:39:16 'cause that's what's gonna happen to this market.

00:39:18 So I predict, by the time we're here next Thursday,

00:39:21 that we have given back, forget the NASDAQ for a second,

00:39:23 we've given back the S&P, we're probably down 2 to 3%.

00:39:27 I think, listen, I'll stand by what I said,

00:39:29 this August is gonna be nasty.

00:39:30 - I think you're off by a few weeks,

00:39:32 and I'm gonna tell you why.

00:39:33 If there's no economic data,

00:39:35 if there's no big earnings pre-announcement,

00:39:37 and there's nothing geopolitical, okay,

00:39:39 well, I'm just gonna say this,

00:39:40 I think we kind of probably, sadly,

00:39:43 float up into Jackson Hole in two weeks,

00:39:46 and then, you know what it feels like?

00:39:48 Do you remember August of 2020?

00:39:51 You remember the melt-up that we had in,

00:39:53 remember the SoftBank whale buying,

00:39:54 remember the gamma squeeze?

00:39:55 - Oh yeah.

00:39:56 - And the NASDAQ just melted up?

00:39:57 I think we could probably do that into Labor Day,

00:40:00 and then I think September and October

00:40:02 are gonna get really nasty.

00:40:03 - September, man.

00:40:04 - Neil Diamond.

00:40:05 - Hey, Dan, let's bet.

00:40:07 - Wake me up when September ends.

00:40:08 - I'm gonna make an easy bet here, $100.

00:40:09 Let's just, $100.

00:40:10 - That's fair.

00:40:11 - By the time we're here next week,

00:40:13 the S&P is down for the month of August.

00:40:15 - Ooh, okay, let's go.

00:40:16 It's up 2% right now, so you may, it's red.

00:40:19 - Absolutely.

00:40:19 - That's fine, $100.

00:40:20 - As we get out of here, the great David Faber coming on,

00:40:24 love David Faber, as I mentioned,

00:40:25 I'm sure I'll say it when he comes on.

00:40:27 He's on Mount Rushmore of CNBC.

00:40:29 I love the guy.

00:40:30 I think his intellect is unsurpassed,

00:40:35 and they call him the brain for a reason,

00:40:37 so we're gonna speak to David Faber.

00:40:38 I'm looking forward to that.

00:40:40 Keep an eye on commodities, people.

00:40:41 Nat gas up about 10%.

00:40:44 Soft commodities all rallying.

00:40:46 Crude oil very quietly off the mat.

00:40:49 I will tell you, the commodity market is saying,

00:40:51 hey, Federal Reserve, look over here.

00:40:53 Your job ain't done yet.

00:40:54 Something to keep in mind over the next week or so,

00:40:56 Danny Mosley.

00:40:57 - And Europe is a disaster.

00:40:58 - Disaster!

00:40:58 - And I feel horrible for people over there,

00:41:00 but it is a disaster.

00:41:01 Power prices are rising.

00:41:02 There's rivers that have lost so much water,

00:41:04 you can't even transport what's even there,

00:41:06 and Putin's using it as a weapon,

00:41:07 and it's only gonna get worse,

00:41:08 so we don't talk about that enough.

00:41:09 It's a big deal for humanity.

00:41:11 It's also a big deal for the market.

00:41:12 - I was in London early July.

00:41:15 I was in Italy just last week.

00:41:16 Just gonna tell you, it doesn't feel like

00:41:18 anything's that bad right now.

00:41:19 And I mean that quite sincerely.

00:41:20 I've been all over the country

00:41:21 over the last couple of months, too,

00:41:23 so I'm just saying, purely anecdotal.

00:41:25 When you're staying at the Four Seasons--

00:41:28 - I was gonna say, he's gonna get crushed

00:41:29 for that comment. - When you're staying

00:41:30 at the Ritz-Carlton, when you're in Positano,

00:41:33 I mean, it's a whole different kettle of fish.

00:41:34 - And when the waiter says, I'll serve you dishwater,

00:41:36 you won't know the difference in a foreign language.

00:41:38 Dan just smiles and looks at him.

00:41:40 - Smile away, baby, smile away.

00:41:41 - Anyway, well the market's about to take a big vacation.

00:41:45 - I like what you did there.

00:41:46 - Thank you.

00:41:46 - Potentially a European vacation.

00:41:48 - Correct.

00:41:49 - By the way, meet the Millers with--

00:41:51 - Underrated. - Sudeikis.

00:41:52 Yeah, he's a funny guy.

00:41:54 - Yeah, he's really funny.

00:41:55 - He's a really funny guy.

00:41:55 - Have you seen that?

00:41:56 Not the big short, anyway, wrap it up, guys.

00:41:58 Let's go, let's get out of here.

00:41:59 - When we come back, David Faber of Squawk on the Street,

00:42:03 of Jeopardy, of ExxonMobil, whatever podcast that was

00:42:08 or doc that was, he is a badass.

00:42:11 He is joining us on the tape.

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00:43:28 Hey, it's Dan here.

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00:44:22 David Faber is an award-winning journalist

00:44:28 and New York Times best-selling author.

00:44:31 He's the co-anchor of CNBC's "Squawk on the Street,"

00:44:34 an anchor and co-producer of CNBC's

00:44:37 acclaimed original documentaries and long-form programming.

00:44:42 During the day, David breaks down news

00:44:44 and provides in-depth analysis on a range of business topics

00:44:48 with his "Faber Report."

00:44:50 In his nearly three decades with CNBC,

00:44:53 Faber has broken many big financial stories,

00:44:55 including Disney's deal to buy

00:44:57 most of 21st Century Fox's assets,

00:45:00 the massive fraud at WorldCom,

00:45:02 and Rupert Murdoch's unsolicited bid for Dow Jones.

00:45:07 So folks, as Dan Nathan will tell you,

00:45:09 I've been with CNBC for the last 50 years.

00:45:11 The reality is that's not true at all.

00:45:13 It's probably closer to 17 years.

00:45:16 And I get asked a lot of questions

00:45:17 when people do in fact recognize me,

00:45:19 which happens from time to time.

00:45:20 And one of the questions I get is,

00:45:23 what are the people at CNBC like?

00:45:25 And one of the people they always ask me about

00:45:28 is our next guest, David Faber.

00:45:30 What is David really like?

00:45:31 And I say, I will tell you,

00:45:33 he's as brilliant on air as he is off the air.

00:45:36 And he is a wonderful guy.

00:45:37 And despite the fact that his allegiance

00:45:40 is to the New York Mets and the New York Jets,

00:45:44 he is a wonderful individual.

00:45:45 David Faber, welcome to "On the Tape."

00:45:48 - Thank you so much, Guy.

00:45:49 I always say the same thing about you.

00:45:51 - Bullshit.

00:45:52 Guy Dahme's the first person that people ask about.

00:45:54 - No, he's not.

00:45:56 But you do get asked, and I do actually say that.

00:45:59 Not about you though, Nathan.

00:46:00 - No, of course not.

00:46:01 No, but let's be frank here.

00:46:02 Jim Cramer must be the guy that you get asked about.

00:46:04 He's been your, what, broadcasting partner now

00:46:07 on "Squawk on the Street" for what, 10 years or so?

00:46:08 - I think it is almost 10 years.

00:46:10 And yes, I do get asked about him.

00:46:13 Or I get comments.

00:46:14 A lot of times, I'm sure you guys get this.

00:46:16 They just share with you what they think, right, Guy?

00:46:19 They tell you what they think about somebody.

00:46:21 I think that guy Nathan is,

00:46:22 or I think Melissa Lee's great,

00:46:23 or I think, you know, who knows what it could be.

00:46:25 But that's kind of what you get.

00:46:26 And I get that a lot about Jim, as you might expect.

00:46:29 - There's a Mount Rushmore, apparently out west.

00:46:32 I've never been, but I'm sure it's lovely.

00:46:33 Apparently, they wanna add a fifth head to that,

00:46:36 if number 45 has his way.

00:46:38 But in terms of the Mount Rushmore of CNBC,

00:46:41 you're on it, brother.

00:46:43 I mean, you are absolutely on it.

00:46:44 It's three decades now.

00:46:45 You've broken more stories, probably,

00:46:48 than the rest of the network combined.

00:46:50 And you are CNBC royalty.

00:46:52 And I think what's great about it is,

00:46:54 I'm sure you've had huge opportunities

00:46:55 to do a bunch of different things,

00:46:57 but you love CNBC and you love what you do.

00:47:00 It's clear when you watch you each and every day

00:47:03 on the TV set.

00:47:04 - Well, thank you for saying that.

00:47:05 And I do still enjoy it a great deal.

00:47:07 And I enjoy being with Jim in the morning, and Carl,

00:47:09 and being in the moment, which is a fun thing to do,

00:47:12 and you guys know that.

00:47:13 And I still enjoy the learning.

00:47:14 We're still coming up against things.

00:47:16 It gets a little tougher every year to learn,

00:47:18 but I'm still trying to do it.

00:47:20 - Well, let's talk about that.

00:47:21 I mean, when I started in the business in 1997,

00:47:23 your face was a mainstay, breaking stories.

00:47:26 I worked at a hedge fund that was trading stocks,

00:47:29 kind of intraday, but also short-term,

00:47:31 catalyst-driven sort of stuff.

00:47:33 And when the brain came on, guy,

00:47:35 you remember it back in the day,

00:47:37 he usually had something to say.

00:47:39 You were breaking stories.

00:47:41 We were trading a bunch of the telcos back then,

00:47:43 that and internet, into the late '90s or so.

00:47:46 Talk to us a little bit about how you became,

00:47:48 literally, you were the guy that anyone had to listen to,

00:47:51 whether it was telco, whether it was media,

00:47:53 and you just, as Guy said, you probably broke more stories

00:47:55 than the network did combined.

00:47:57 Like, how did that all come about?

00:47:58 How did you become this persistent reporter?

00:48:00 - 'Cause that's kind of the way I was so-called raised.

00:48:02 It was the beginning of my career that I guess I point to.

00:48:05 And I don't break news the way I used to,

00:48:06 and I appreciate your saying that.

00:48:08 - Well, when did they start the Faber Report?

00:48:10 Because you were probably up and coming

00:48:11 with the network in the late '90s.

00:48:13 - Yeah, I mean, I started in '93, September '93,

00:48:15 so I'm coming up on 29 years very soon.

00:48:18 And I think it was a year or so after I joined,

00:48:20 maybe a year and a half,

00:48:21 where I started to get something going.

00:48:22 Maybe with the Faber Report was a couple of years.

00:48:25 When it comes to breaking news,

00:48:27 it's what I learned how to do

00:48:28 with my first job in journalism,

00:48:30 which was at a newsletter that covered the banking industry.

00:48:33 It's called "The Bank Letter."

00:48:34 It was owned by Institutional Investor,

00:48:36 something you guys probably know.

00:48:37 Back then, it was a magazine.

00:48:38 It was known for the all-star team of analysts.

00:48:41 But they had these newsletters that were very focused

00:48:43 on different parts of the financial services industry.

00:48:45 I was hired, knowing nothing,

00:48:47 I was an English major at college,

00:48:49 to cover corporate banking,

00:48:51 to cover the competition between

00:48:52 the then Money Center banks to land the big loan,

00:48:55 billion dollars, two billion dollars.

00:48:57 It's hilarious, 'cause most of those banks are now one bank.

00:49:00 They're all JPMorgan Chase.

00:49:01 But back then, it was Chase, JPMorgan,

00:49:04 and it was manny-hanny,

00:49:05 and you can go on from there

00:49:06 about all the different competing,

00:49:08 not just with US banks, but also the Japanese banks

00:49:10 were actually in ascendance for that brief period of time.

00:49:13 Anyhow, they gave me an American Express card.

00:49:15 They said, "Take people to lunch,

00:49:17 "develop sources, and break news.

00:49:19 "And if you don't, you're fired."

00:49:20 And that's how I learned to sort of report.

00:49:23 Obviously, I had a long way to go

00:49:24 in terms of a learning curve,

00:49:26 but the basics of sort of wanting to break a story,

00:49:29 even back then, it was a weekly that you got in the mail,

00:49:32 and I started on a typewriter.

00:49:34 Nonetheless, picking up the phone and making calls

00:49:37 is sort of what I grew up with, and I haven't really stopped.

00:49:40 - Which is amazing if you think about the relationships

00:49:43 you've built over that time.

00:49:44 But talk about the relationships and sort of,

00:49:48 it's a dance in a lot of ways, right?

00:49:50 You have to be respectful of your sources,

00:49:52 respectful of the relationships,

00:49:53 yet, obviously, you're looking for news as well.

00:49:56 Talk about that dynamic, because I think it's fascinating.

00:50:00 - You're completely right, Guy.

00:50:02 It is a balance.

00:50:03 You do occasionally come up on some bad moments.

00:50:06 Maybe bad's too strong a word.

00:50:07 The only time when it really gets bad

00:50:09 is if somebody lies to you, and then it's kind of over.

00:50:13 And I have, unfortunately, had that happen

00:50:14 a couple of times through the years, but very rarely.

00:50:16 I mean, when you're involved in a long-term relationship,

00:50:20 so to speak, with a source, you trust each other, obviously,

00:50:24 and you know that you're not gonna burn,

00:50:26 either way, you're not gonna burn each other over one story.

00:50:29 And so there have been times, and I'll back off on a story,

00:50:32 if I don't feel like I'm completely there,

00:50:35 because a source sort of warns me against it in some way,

00:50:37 and there have obviously been times

00:50:39 when my sources protect me as well from a bad outcome.

00:50:42 It is a balance.

00:50:43 There are occasionally times when you do have to have

00:50:46 some form of conflict or say, come on, man,

00:50:48 you gotta give it up here, but that's rare.

00:50:51 I mean, over time, you sort of develop a certain cadence,

00:50:53 and people know that they can trust you completely,

00:50:57 and you kind of know when they're ready to play ball

00:50:59 and when they're not, really, in a weird way,

00:51:02 if you come up against them on something.

00:51:03 - Yeah, trust, it seems like, is the name of the game.

00:51:06 If you're gonna develop a long-term relationship,

00:51:08 it has to happen that way.

00:51:09 Talk to us a little bit about, again,

00:51:10 I go back to the late '90s,

00:51:11 I remember you breaking these stories on telco,

00:51:13 but then we saw all this stuff kind of smushed together

00:51:16 during the dot-com thing, right?

00:51:17 We saw AOL, Time Warner, I know that you were busy on that.

00:51:21 - Didn't break it, though.

00:51:22 - No, it didn't break it.

00:51:23 And are there stories like that?

00:51:24 You were like, you were that close,

00:51:25 and it was just like a relationship away,

00:51:27 that sort of thing, and you're very competitive about that.

00:51:29 - Oh, still am.

00:51:30 I mean, I still remember a lot of scoops that didn't happen.

00:51:33 I mean, I did a story on ExxonMobil,

00:51:35 but it was totally rumor, I was hearing, you know,

00:51:38 but back to what I was telling the guy,

00:51:39 I had a source who lied to me about ExxonMobil,

00:51:42 just flat out lied to me, never talked to him again,

00:51:44 but that one kills me 'cause I had it.

00:51:46 - Talk to us how you triangulate that, though,

00:51:48 because is it an investor, is it the company,

00:51:50 like, are there other people within media?

00:51:52 Like, how do you build a scoop

00:51:54 to a point where you're ready to break it?

00:51:56 - You never know where it's coming from initially.

00:51:59 You really don't, which is why it's helpful

00:52:00 to talk to a lot of people.

00:52:02 It can be any number of places.

00:52:03 It could be a hedge fund manager

00:52:04 who at least thinks they know something

00:52:07 or heard something from somebody that gave them a hint.

00:52:10 Typically these days, by the way,

00:52:11 25 years ago, it was sort of different.

00:52:13 These days, if it's a hint at all.

00:52:16 Sometimes, though, it's from a CEO.

00:52:18 Sometimes it's from a board member.

00:52:19 Sometimes it is from a banker or a lawyer,

00:52:22 but eventually you're gonna sort of hit almost all of them.

00:52:26 And so when you get a tip on, for example,

00:52:29 when I broke Disney, Fox,

00:52:31 that came to me from a long time source

00:52:34 and I knew it had to be true given who they are,

00:52:38 but then I was able to obviously triangulate

00:52:40 by also working my way through

00:52:42 sort of some of the executive ranks.

00:52:43 So it varies where it starts,

00:52:45 but it always ends up sort of with concentric circles

00:52:48 of making sure you've got it right

00:52:49 and then going to the company typically.

00:52:52 Those are my favorites.

00:52:52 A call that says you've got 10 minutes

00:52:56 because in 10 minutes, you're never getting off this phone

00:53:00 because it's gonna be ringing for the next 24 hours.

00:53:02 So tell me now if there's anything wrong

00:53:05 with what I just told you, 'cause I'm going.

00:53:08 And I love making those calls.

00:53:09 I don't make them nearly often enough anymore.

00:53:12 - First of all, you're being modest.

00:53:13 You do an amazing job,

00:53:14 but let me ask you a question 'cause it's interesting.

00:53:16 I grew up as a trader

00:53:17 and each day there was a report card.

00:53:19 You knew at the end of the day how you did

00:53:21 and how you're gonna do the next day

00:53:22 and those types of things.

00:53:23 There was an immediacy to what we did.

00:53:26 In your world, it's much different.

00:53:27 Things take weeks, if not longer, to develop.

00:53:30 Are you wired that way?

00:53:32 Is that okay for you?

00:53:33 Because for a lot of people, there's an urgency,

00:53:35 especially in today's world

00:53:37 where everybody wants that instant gratification.

00:53:39 In your world, things take a lot longer.

00:53:41 - They do, and sometimes they can come together quickly,

00:53:44 but you're right, Guy.

00:53:45 They can take weeks.

00:53:47 I remember the first big story I ever broke for CNBC

00:53:50 was British Telecom buying MCI.

00:53:53 I remember the old MCI for 22 billion.

00:53:55 It was an important story for CNBC

00:53:56 'cause it was November of 1996.

00:53:59 Nobody had ever broken a story on television before.

00:54:02 The stock went up, whatever it was,

00:54:03 and I think a lot of people are like, "What?"

00:54:06 'Cause that was back in the day

00:54:07 when stories were still broken

00:54:09 in the morning's Wall Street Journal.

00:54:12 But in answer to your question, yeah, it can take weeks.

00:54:15 What I would say is different now, Guy,

00:54:17 is that you can work for weeks on something

00:54:19 and you break it, and then it's matched within minutes.

00:54:23 And back in the days I was just describing in '96,

00:54:26 like once you broke the story, it wasn't over.

00:54:28 You owned it.

00:54:28 You sort of were ahead of everybody else.

00:54:30 They were always playing catch up.

00:54:31 You had time.

00:54:33 You could keep sort of advancing the story

00:54:35 even beyond your initial break.

00:54:36 These days, the half-life of a scoop, as we say,

00:54:39 is much, much shorter.

00:54:41 And it does make it a little less emotionally rewarding

00:54:45 to put in that kind of work

00:54:47 when you sort of lose it within minutes of having broken it.

00:54:51 Because the internet owns it at that point.

00:54:53 Exactly.

00:54:54 And every number of different news organizations

00:54:56 will make their call to basically

00:54:57 whoever it might be, the spokesman at the company,

00:54:59 who will confirm it at that point because it's out.

00:55:01 Going back to your time on Squawk Box,

00:55:04 you used to sit there, I remember you had stacks

00:55:06 of newspapers in front of you.

00:55:08 It was a big mess in front of you.

00:55:09 And you were always being called in.

00:55:11 Mark Haines would have you on.

00:55:12 You were this tremendous resource for the network.

00:55:15 Now, flash forward, what, 25 years or so,

00:55:18 you are sitting at the floor of the NYSC

00:55:20 from nine o'clock until 11 a.m.,

00:55:23 and you are just broadcasting.

00:55:25 You're also breaking news.

00:55:27 We've all seen the pictures of you

00:55:28 ducking out to take calls and that sort of thing.

00:55:30 So how has that changed in a way?

00:55:32 Because you spent a lot of your time

00:55:33 for the first half of your career as a reporter.

00:55:36 Now you are 100% a broadcaster.

00:55:38 You still own the stories.

00:55:39 I would say what's different now

00:55:41 is that you're part of this ensemble

00:55:43 with Carl and Kramer in the morning,

00:55:45 but they're always deferring to you

00:55:46 when it's stuff within media or Delco or M&A,

00:55:49 that sort of thing.

00:55:50 So how is that?

00:55:51 I mean, it must be a lot of fun sitting there

00:55:52 in the most interesting part of the trading day

00:55:54 on the opening and just being able

00:55:56 to riff for a couple hours.

00:55:57 - Through all these years, right,

00:55:59 35 years now as a journalist,

00:56:00 I've certainly developed a certain expertise

00:56:02 in areas in M&A.

00:56:03 So whatever it might be,

00:56:05 there's shorthand I can sort of pick up pretty quickly

00:56:08 what might be going on with the situation,

00:56:09 even if I'm just reading the press release,

00:56:11 which more often than not is the case these days.

00:56:14 I pick my spots in a way that I used to.

00:56:16 I used to report endlessly.

00:56:17 I mean, I was just constantly trying to break stories.

00:56:20 I don't do that anymore.

00:56:21 I do focus more on some of the bigger things

00:56:24 that we are all focused on as stories

00:56:26 and sort of try to pick and choose

00:56:28 where I can add some value to the conversation

00:56:30 with my colleagues on air.

00:56:32 And then when something comes along every so often

00:56:34 that I either break or I know a lot about

00:56:36 or I know I can advance very quickly

00:56:39 through a series of phone calls, then I do it.

00:56:41 - You don't get caught up in the flavor of the day.

00:56:43 Like I think back over the last couple of years,

00:56:44 I don't hear you talk about crypto.

00:56:46 I don't hear you talk about meme stocks.

00:56:47 You're not talking about cannabis and stuff like that.

00:56:49 And so talk to us a little bit about that.

00:56:51 I mean, what we do on Fast Money is it's a little different.

00:56:54 You've hosted it when Mel's been out, that sort of thing.

00:56:56 I mean, our job is to really opine on all of that stuff.

00:57:00 You just don't get in the weeds

00:57:02 with that sort of stuff, right?

00:57:03 - No, well, I try to avoid things

00:57:05 that I don't really know a lot about.

00:57:07 And so crypto for me, for example, is one,

00:57:10 I just, I'm not passing judgment.

00:57:11 There's so many smart people,

00:57:13 but I'll defer to you guys every time on that.

00:57:15 You know, I just don't feel like I fully understand it.

00:57:18 And maybe shame on me at this point for not digging in

00:57:21 and trying harder to understand it.

00:57:23 But until I do, I just don't feel that comfortable

00:57:26 really doing a lot of saying much about it.

00:57:28 Sometimes I do, like when that guy's sailor comes on,

00:57:31 I just sort of have to ask some questions.

00:57:33 But I typically don't participate as much on that

00:57:36 just because I feel like, well,

00:57:37 my colleagues know more than I do.

00:57:39 And I'm happy to do that.

00:57:40 That's one of the benefits of getting old.

00:57:42 You're a little less defensive about stuff.

00:57:43 So where I know something, great.

00:57:45 But where I don't,

00:57:46 I'm happy to have other people take the lead.

00:57:48 - It's funny you say getting old.

00:57:50 People will say, and I've seen it on Twitter

00:57:52 over the last couple of weeks, you don't age.

00:57:54 You actually look exactly the same now.

00:57:57 I mean, I know you don't dye your hair.

00:57:58 I'm not going down that route.

00:58:00 What's the secret?

00:58:01 I mean, you're not Italian,

00:58:02 so you don't got that working for you.

00:58:04 Like, what's the secret of this fountain of youth?

00:58:06 - I do not know.

00:58:07 I don't know.

00:58:08 I'm sure on the inside, I'm like, I don't know.

00:58:09 I can't, what are you?

00:58:10 I mean, come on, you guys look great.

00:58:12 - David and I, every once in a while,

00:58:13 we'll be texting, I think during our show,

00:58:15 and you will have just left the pool.

00:58:17 So sometimes, right?

00:58:18 Like, so you swim every day, right?

00:58:21 - Often, I hopefully will go from here to the pool and swim.

00:58:23 I'm trying to swim four days a week.

00:58:24 - And you think that's a big part of it here?

00:58:26 - I love swimming.

00:58:27 I won't ever give it up.

00:58:28 I'll still be in the water my last day, I hope, on Earth.

00:58:31 But I guess it helps, I guess.

00:58:32 - I think, Amanda, when we were doing a little research

00:58:34 for this conversation, obviously,

00:58:36 we could have sat down with no research

00:58:37 and just bullshitted with you the whole time,

00:58:39 but the 25-year anniversary that they did

00:58:42 on the floor of the NYSE for you,

00:58:44 your family came down.

00:58:46 Talk to us about that moment.

00:58:47 You said you weren't gonna get all teared up.

00:58:49 You got a little teared up.

00:58:49 That was a big milestone.

00:58:51 Your family was down there.

00:58:52 Had they ever been down there on the set with you?

00:58:53 - My mother, by the way, the other day says,

00:58:55 "I really wanna come down and see that show,"

00:58:57 'cause she wasn't there that day.

00:58:58 So I may have to have her come down at some point.

00:59:00 But no, it was a surprise.

00:59:01 I was very touched by the people who showed up

00:59:04 for my 25th, which is going to be, amazingly enough,

00:59:07 already four years ago.

00:59:08 In particular, senior kids, and then it's four years later.

00:59:11 But the passage of time, you guys know that.

00:59:13 You just sort of like, "Oh my God, 25 years,"

00:59:14 and then look at them, and then look how big they've gotten.

00:59:18 And it is a little overwhelming for a man.

00:59:20 - Yeah, but you were kind of like a punchy reporter.

00:59:21 So they had a lot of video of you back in the day,

00:59:24 in the '90s, and you were kind of like really animated.

00:59:26 You kind of had like this and that or whatever.

00:59:28 And so was it back then, I mean, did you feel like,

00:59:32 TV's changed a lot since then.

00:59:34 If you think about it, you were trying to make a name

00:59:35 for yourself a little bit, and you really did do

00:59:38 an amazing job carving out, I guess, a brand on CNBC.

00:59:42 But now it just kind of feels like, you know,

00:59:44 you're just gonna let Kramer do all that stuff.

00:59:46 Is that how it goes?

00:59:47 - No, not at all.

00:59:48 He's him, I'm me.

00:59:50 So we're very different, and it works pretty well, I think.

00:59:52 But the early days of Squawk Box, we got very lucky.

00:59:56 Like you always have to in everybody's career,

00:59:58 I mean, in terms of the timing.

01:00:00 So we hit the dot-com boom pretty well,

01:00:02 in terms of when we started that show.

01:00:04 Joe and I, Joe Kernan and I, had a good repartee,

01:00:07 and it kind of became a thing of its own, you know,

01:00:09 with Hanes and then Maria on the floor.

01:00:12 I look back very fondly on those days.

01:00:14 - And this is gonna be a really odd question.

01:00:16 I don't mean it to be, but you're a journalist.

01:00:19 I am not a, I don't pretend to be,

01:00:21 I'm not smart enough to be, but I'll say this.

01:00:23 You love journalism.

01:00:25 Do you love the markets?

01:00:26 Because these days, at least the last two years specifically,

01:00:29 the markets have become a bit of a video game.

01:00:32 - Yeah.

01:00:33 I have never been as enamored of reporting on the markets

01:00:37 as I have about companies.

01:00:38 I've always, for me, it's always been much more interesting

01:00:42 for my own interests to report on industries and companies.

01:00:47 And so that's typically what I've done, Guy.

01:00:49 I mean, you know, the markets, you can't avoid them.

01:00:52 And there are many, many times when obviously I'll dig in

01:00:56 on what's going on through any number of the people I know

01:00:59 and my ability to get a lot of people on the phone.

01:01:01 But for me, the reporting that I enjoy more,

01:01:05 because you can get an answer.

01:01:07 You know, the markets, nobody knows an answer.

01:01:09 It's like, what's the answer?

01:01:10 Is it we're going up, we're going down, who knows?

01:01:12 That's always a difficult thing.

01:01:14 Whereas with a company, I can sort of make enough calls

01:01:17 and ask enough questions that I probably can give you

01:01:20 some factual information that's gonna help you

01:01:23 understand the industry and understand

01:01:25 that company's place in it.

01:01:26 So I much prefer that.

01:01:28 - Talk to us a little bit about being there,

01:01:29 national TV, 9 a.m. every morning for the last whatever,

01:01:33 you've seen a lot of crazy shit.

01:01:34 I'm assuming 9/11, you were there.

01:01:36 I mean, like some of this stuff that you just had to opine

01:01:39 that you never thought in a million years

01:01:42 you'd have to do it.

01:01:42 Talk to us a little bit about that.

01:01:44 I mean, where there's some things that stick out

01:01:46 in particular, maybe 9/11

01:01:47 and some of your reflections about that.

01:01:49 - You know, on 9/11, I had Mark Haynes, thankfully,

01:01:52 who is a far more experienced anchor than I.

01:01:54 And he just, as our viewers know from way back,

01:01:57 and we always hear about that whenever we sort of do

01:01:59 a tribute for him, he was amazing that day.

01:02:01 So I did not do much other than sit there

01:02:05 like everybody else and just shock.

01:02:08 The financial crisis though,

01:02:09 I do remember a lot more seriously in terms of

01:02:12 what the hell is happening.

01:02:14 And there, because so much was happening constantly,

01:02:19 it played to my strengths,

01:02:20 which is let me make phone calls and let me see.

01:02:23 And that night I'll never forget being on air

01:02:26 that Sunday night when Lehman was going down.

01:02:29 Yes, Lehman was going down.

01:02:31 And then I was very much focused on AIG

01:02:33 'cause for whatever reason, you go where your sources are.

01:02:36 I had sources who sort of had been working on AIG,

01:02:40 frankly, from the short side, so to speak,

01:02:41 for quite some time, but knew it really well.

01:02:43 And so I had gotten much more focused on AIG,

01:02:46 but I'll never forget those days.

01:02:48 I mean, those weeks,

01:02:50 it went on for months and months and months, obviously,

01:02:52 us always on the edge of like, is it coming to an end?

01:02:56 - Yeah, well, talk to us a little bit about the weight

01:02:58 of responsibility of being accurate in your reporting

01:03:01 in these periods where really livelihoods were at stake.

01:03:04 And I was at Merrill Lynch then, and I remember that.

01:03:06 And I remember that Sunday night

01:03:07 and the reports that were coming out

01:03:09 and people didn't know if their bank

01:03:10 or the place where they got their livelihood

01:03:12 was gonna be insolvent, it was gonna be gone.

01:03:14 So talk to us a little bit about the responsibility.

01:03:16 It also kind of weaves in a little bit

01:03:18 about sitting there and watching these events go on

01:03:20 that you know are just big Senate world events or so,

01:03:24 and everyone's looking to you for that accuracy.

01:03:27 - Yeah, I mean, I think you have to be,

01:03:29 listen, you're always aware of your responsibility,

01:03:31 hopefully, to get things right.

01:03:33 During that period of time,

01:03:35 when so many people were so fearful,

01:03:39 was in particular important not to in any way

01:03:43 add to that fear unnecessarily.

01:03:45 But I've always felt like the market is the market.

01:03:48 You're better off knowing everything there is

01:03:50 that we can share with you

01:03:51 than me somehow keeping something from you

01:03:54 because we think it's gonna scare you.

01:03:56 But there were plenty of people who we know

01:03:58 have come on and sort of scare people

01:04:00 without a lot behind it.

01:04:02 But for me, again, it was sort of like,

01:04:04 listen, AIG is gonna lose $100 billion this quarter.

01:04:06 That's the number I just heard.

01:04:08 And GE's gonna stop paying its dividend.

01:04:09 And I mean, it went on and on.

01:04:11 If you got it, you share it,

01:04:13 including, of course, to the interview that I did

01:04:15 with Alan Schwartz back in March of '08,

01:04:17 a few days before Bear Stearns was forced to sell

01:04:19 at a deeply discounted price.

01:04:22 - Two bucks.

01:04:23 - Then to 10.

01:04:24 - Then to 10, yeah.

01:04:25 - You know, it's interesting,

01:04:26 you mentioned fear or being scared.

01:04:28 I will tell you there were times in '08 and '09

01:04:31 on Fast Money that I was absolutely terrified to go on air

01:04:35 because things were happening that obviously

01:04:37 I had never seen in my career

01:04:38 that I didn't fully understand,

01:04:41 yet we were tasked with going on

01:04:43 and talking about the markets.

01:04:44 Now, obviously, that was just a window in time.

01:04:47 But have there been days where you came on air

01:04:49 and you're like, holy shit,

01:04:50 I mean, things are happening here?

01:04:52 'Cause there is a huge responsibility in being on air

01:04:55 that you were maybe not scared,

01:04:56 but you were really concerned

01:04:59 about how that show was gonna go.

01:05:01 - Yeah, I mean, I think back to that period

01:05:03 in time in particular,

01:05:04 and back to things like Alan Schwartz coming on

01:05:08 with me that morning in March,

01:05:10 and/or you can just pick your day.

01:05:13 God, I remember when the CFO,

01:05:15 I think it was Keith Sharon, the CFO of GE,

01:05:17 came in when that stock,

01:05:19 remember, when Citi, when they were all hitting,

01:05:21 I don't know, three bucks?

01:05:23 Was that March of, that was March of '09, right?

01:05:26 That was a year later.

01:05:28 And I do remember in particular that interview with him,

01:05:31 he was shaking because he was so nervous.

01:05:35 'Cause there are times when you know

01:05:36 there's so much at stake.

01:05:38 They don't happen often, they really don't.

01:05:40 But there are great moments as a journalist

01:05:42 when there's something at stake,

01:05:43 and when there's an interview

01:05:44 that actually is of real importance.

01:05:47 And so I embrace those,

01:05:48 but obviously also realizing you do have a responsibility.

01:05:52 So there's plenty of those times

01:05:53 when you get really nervous sort of in a way,

01:05:55 'cause you know this matters.

01:05:57 How we conduct ourselves right now,

01:05:59 what we say and/or how we conduct this interview

01:06:02 is of actual importance.

01:06:03 We haven't had those many.

01:06:04 I mean, during the early days of the pandemic,

01:06:07 when we were all at home and I was at home as well,

01:06:10 and a lot of us were like, "What is going on here?"

01:06:13 And the market was going down every day insanely.

01:06:16 That was a little scary as well, I think,

01:06:19 in a different way than the financial crisis,

01:06:21 but certainly scary.

01:06:22 - Guy and I, throughout all of that,

01:06:24 we were doing "Fast Money" remotely,

01:06:27 we were doing the stuff that we do,

01:06:28 and it's really hard sometimes when you think

01:06:30 to kind of disconnect what's going on

01:06:32 on a humanitarian level around you.

01:06:34 And I think that going back to 9/11,

01:06:36 that was probably something.

01:06:37 And I remember the idea of talking about the markets

01:06:40 at a time where so much serious stuff is going on

01:06:42 is really hard, but that's kind of,

01:06:44 what do you say, Guy?

01:06:45 That's what we're charged with doing in a way,

01:06:48 but it's funny.

01:06:50 I mean, hopefully we won't have too many more

01:06:52 of those sorts of situations,

01:06:53 but for you sitting on that desk,

01:06:55 I mean, we've had a comment on terrorist attacks,

01:06:57 and this and that.

01:06:58 It really does seem weird.

01:06:59 You almost want to tell the viewer,

01:07:01 "Hey, why don't you go turn on MSNBC right now,

01:07:03 because we're not the right place for it."

01:07:05 - Yeah, we'd never do that, as you well know,

01:07:08 but I do feel like you're watching us for a reason.

01:07:10 And if you are watching,

01:07:11 it's for us to talk about what we do know.

01:07:14 And there are still plenty of people who have great concern

01:07:16 and/or interest in the markets, even during those periods.

01:07:18 But you're right, there is something,

01:07:19 sometimes a bit of a disconnect

01:07:21 when you're talking about COVID,

01:07:23 particularly in that period where everybody was so fearful.

01:07:25 Not just for the markets, but for their lives,

01:07:29 or even worse, 9/11, which sort of stands alone.

01:07:33 - We did Fast Money for years.

01:07:35 And if I mention President Bush or President Obama

01:07:40 five times over the course of those however many years,

01:07:42 it was probably a lot.

01:07:43 I mention that because seemingly politics have collided

01:07:47 with our world in ways that never happened prior.

01:07:51 I don't want to have a political conversation,

01:07:53 but how do you deal with that?

01:07:55 'Cause you have to embrace that and talk about it

01:07:59 in terms of what's going on in the markets,

01:08:01 in terms of what's going on with the Federal Reserve.

01:08:04 I mean, that's a bit of a dance as well,

01:08:05 'cause you obviously want to stay agnostic,

01:08:07 but it's come into our theater almost on a daily basis.

01:08:10 - Yeah, I wish it didn't.

01:08:13 And obviously it doesn't nearly as much now

01:08:15 as it did during the Trump years.

01:08:17 I mean, you guys know that.

01:08:18 'Cause Trump was tweeting and he was focused

01:08:21 on the markets so much

01:08:23 that you would invariably be drawn in somehow

01:08:26 to having a discussion, not to mention China trade,

01:08:29 which every day sort of felt like,

01:08:31 where are we today on this?

01:08:33 And again, back to sort of him interjecting himself

01:08:36 via tweets into the conversation

01:08:38 right in the middle of your show.

01:08:39 Sometimes it was, you were like, oh my God, he's watching

01:08:42 'cause we just said this.

01:08:45 And I never liked it.

01:08:47 You got to talk about it to your point, guy.

01:08:49 I'm much more comfortable, if I can be,

01:08:52 just talking about companies and industries

01:08:55 and what may be going on.

01:08:57 And we're sort of back to that a little bit more now.

01:09:00 Obviously we talked about the CHIPS Act this week.

01:09:02 We got to talk about, but it's legislation.

01:09:04 That's what you want to talk about.

01:09:06 We're not talking as much about a particular individual.

01:09:09 He was unique in that way.

01:09:10 - Well, we are talking about one individual every day,

01:09:13 the way we used to talk about Trump on "Financial Times."

01:09:15 - And I know who that is.

01:09:15 - Yeah, you know who it is.

01:09:16 So you and I had dinner a couple of weeks ago

01:09:18 and we're walking out, we had a nice meal.

01:09:20 We talked about a lot of different things.

01:09:21 And then I don't even know how it came about,

01:09:23 but Elon Musk came up, right?

01:09:25 And you and I are standing there on Amsterdam Avenue

01:09:27 and you're like pleading with me, really,

01:09:30 but you must think, and so you must've heard me,

01:09:32 maybe I said something on the air that day,

01:09:34 and you were like, come on, whatever you think about him,

01:09:37 he's still this, right?

01:09:38 And I'm like, no.

01:09:39 And then you and I were kind of going at it a little bit.

01:09:40 All right, let's talk about him

01:09:41 because we don't talk about Trump on CNBC anymore,

01:09:44 but it seems like every day, I mean,

01:09:47 Musk has taken a page out of the Trump playbook

01:09:49 because what is he doing?

01:09:50 He's setting an agenda every morning on Twitter,

01:09:53 the company that he has agreed to buy for $44 billion

01:09:56 that he doesn't wanna buy,

01:09:58 that he keeps selling Tesla stock in case he has to buy it.

01:10:01 You've been reporting on it a little bit.

01:10:03 You said something that caught a little steam

01:10:05 a couple of weeks ago, right, a little bit.

01:10:08 I mean, it's not like I'm bringing up anything

01:10:09 that wasn't all over the media here.

01:10:11 - Oh, but thanks for bringing it up again, Dan.

01:10:12 - Right, right.

01:10:13 But my point is, is like, it's kind of exhausting in a way.

01:10:16 And so to Guy's point,

01:10:17 he never used to have to talk about presidents.

01:10:19 We had to when it, during the Trump administration.

01:10:21 Now we don't really talk about a whole heck of a lot

01:10:23 about Biden, but we have to talk about a guy

01:10:24 who is Trumpy AF, as the kids say.

01:10:27 - I disagree with you again,

01:10:28 and I'm happy to have the conversation.

01:10:29 Elon Musk is the single most consequential businessman

01:10:32 on the planet, and I challenge you to tell me otherwise.

01:10:35 Tesla is a $930 billion market cap company.

01:10:39 Love it or hate it, that's what it is right now,

01:10:41 roughly, I haven't looked.

01:10:42 They are by far the leader in selling electric vehicles

01:10:45 around the world.

01:10:46 Climate change is a huge issue.

01:10:48 All right, right there, he's important.

01:10:50 SpaceX launches rockets all the time, real rockets.

01:10:55 And by the way, have you seen when they come down?

01:10:56 That's not sci-fi, they're actually landing.

01:10:58 He's done that, he's done that.

01:11:01 I'm sorry, he's in a different league.

01:11:03 Yeah, he seems childish, doesn't seem to take advice

01:11:07 when it comes to what he should or shouldn't say

01:11:09 from a legal perspective.

01:11:11 And he makes news in many other areas,

01:11:14 but he's also the world's richest man.

01:11:16 And I, again, I think he's the most consequential

01:11:18 businessman and he is at the helm of two

01:11:20 incredibly important companies.

01:11:21 - I don't disagree with that, but I'm just gonna say this,

01:11:23 and I started out by saying it's Trumpy AF,

01:11:25 as the kids say, right?

01:11:26 And so here's the deal, this is what happened

01:11:28 to Donald Trump, he did the impossible,

01:11:30 he got to the White House, okay?

01:11:32 Then he lost the House, he got impeached twice,

01:11:35 he lost the White House, he lost the Senate,

01:11:37 he's under investigation by almost every federal agency

01:11:40 or every agency in New York.

01:11:42 What I'm saying is, is that we might have seen

01:11:45 peak Musk, you're gonna get really busy, David,

01:11:47 reporting, I think, on the Musk empire

01:11:50 over the next few years, the way you maybe

01:11:52 reported on Bernie Hebbers and some of these

01:11:55 other situations, I mean that quite seriously.

01:11:57 - You really believe that?

01:11:58 - I think there's a-- - Why?

01:11:59 - He's a liar.

01:11:59 - You think he's a liar?

01:12:00 - He is a liar.

01:12:01 A couple months ago, when he sold all that stock,

01:12:03 he said, "I'm done selling stock."

01:12:05 - Right. - And he just sold stock.

01:12:06 - Well, that was in April, and then actually,

01:12:07 he also said it was a buying opportunity

01:12:09 the other day on August 4th, during their annual meeting.

01:12:11 - But he didn't only sell stock,

01:12:13 he sold $6.9 billion worth of stock.

01:12:17 He's a child, okay?

01:12:18 Like, the jokes aren't funny, you know what I mean?

01:12:20 And if you're the asshole who bought the stock

01:12:22 when he said that he's done buying stock

01:12:24 and then he sold it down and it sells off 10%,

01:12:26 I just think that he doesn't think the rules apply to him,

01:12:29 and if he's using the playbook of number 45,

01:12:32 it didn't end well for him, and it only gets worse

01:12:35 from here, that's my personal opinion.

01:12:36 - Well, I completely agree that he thinks

01:12:37 the rules don't apply to him, and I think

01:12:39 it will be fascinating to watch, in particular,

01:12:42 what happens with Twitter when it comes to that,

01:12:45 because if the rules do apply,

01:12:47 he's gonna end up owning that company.

01:12:48 Now, maybe it ends in some sort of a settlement

01:12:51 where he pays a bit less, but it does seem to me,

01:12:54 more likely than not, if it does go to trial,

01:12:56 starting October 17th in Delaware,

01:12:59 that the rules are gonna apply.

01:13:01 And again, he has a way, somehow, of figuring stuff out

01:13:05 and always coming out looking okay,

01:13:07 but that's gonna be really interesting.

01:13:09 I'm expecting to have an actual front row seat.

01:13:11 I've never been, in all the years I've covered M&A,

01:13:14 I've never actually been in the courtroom in Delaware.

01:13:16 I'm hoping they actually get there.

01:13:18 We'll see if they actually do, but it would be great

01:13:20 to watch.

01:13:21 - In 1960, Richard Nixon debated John F. Kennedy,

01:13:25 and a lot of people say the election basically turned

01:13:29 on that debate because John F. Kennedy looked great

01:13:31 and Richard Nixon was sweating like Paris Hilton

01:13:34 taking the SATs.

01:13:36 I mention that 'cause you mentioned consequential

01:13:39 business people, and I would submit that being able

01:13:42 to tell your story through our lens,

01:13:44 through the lens of a CNBC and through the media,

01:13:47 is extraordinarily important.

01:13:49 And I would say that Jamie Dimon has figured that out,

01:13:52 and I think his bank is rewarded for it,

01:13:55 as opposed to some other people.

01:13:56 So my question to you is, as a business leader,

01:14:00 how important it is today to be able to tell your story

01:14:04 effectively in our world in television?

01:14:07 - It's an interesting question.

01:14:08 I mean, you think JP Morgan benefits guy

01:14:10 because Jamie is a great communicator or?

01:14:14 - Absolutely.

01:14:15 I absolutely think they get part of their premium valuation

01:14:18 is predicated on the fact that he tells the story

01:14:21 extraordinarily well, and he's extraordinarily

01:14:24 media friendly, as opposed to some other guys and gals

01:14:26 that don't do it nearly as well,

01:14:29 and I don't think they're rewarded on the back of that.

01:14:31 - Yeah, I mean, I think I would agree to a certain extent

01:14:34 that that's true, and believe me, any number

01:14:37 of professionals around them might encourage

01:14:39 that same thought.

01:14:41 I do know plenty of people who don't regularly communicate

01:14:44 with us in a way, and who've had great success,

01:14:47 but I do think there are others who would benefit from that,

01:14:49 and then there may very well be, as you say,

01:14:52 some companies and their CEOs who do benefit,

01:14:55 but Jamie's sort of a unique, don't you consider him

01:14:58 to be sort of a unique situation in his own way?

01:15:00 I mean, he does have a lot of confidence in what he says.

01:15:03 So many of these CEOs will choose to communicate,

01:15:07 but then they're not gonna say anything.

01:15:08 I mean, they're instructed not to say anything.

01:15:10 Yeah, go on CNBC, go talk, but God forbid

01:15:14 you should give a straightforward answer to a question.

01:15:16 You know, they've got their general counsel in their head,

01:15:18 they've got their head of corporate communications

01:15:20 in their head, they got their outside

01:15:21 corporate communications person, all of whom are saying,

01:15:24 "Just run out the clock, just run out the clock.

01:15:26 "It's only eight minutes, it's 10 minutes of live TV.

01:15:29 "Just, if they ask that one question,

01:15:30 "just, you know, say something else."

01:15:32 I mean, how often does that happen?

01:15:33 - No, they Dean Smith it, I totally get it,

01:15:35 but I'll juxtapose a Jamie Dimon with a John Thain,

01:15:39 who's a brilliant mind, but he was miserable

01:15:43 in the same medium, and I think, listen,

01:15:45 I think to a certain extent, the company suffered for that.

01:15:50 - I think being able to communicate effectively,

01:15:52 both externally and internally,

01:15:54 is an incredibly important part of that leadership position

01:15:57 like a CEO.

01:15:58 I mean, I think it goes without saying.

01:15:59 And if you're not good at it, I would think

01:16:01 that there is going to be an implication for you,

01:16:04 and maybe you're not gonna be in your job

01:16:06 as long as you might wanna be.

01:16:07 - You know, our friend Max Myers, he gets shout outs

01:16:09 on this podcast every once in a while.

01:16:10 So he's always fascinated, he loves covering the media

01:16:15 on his media, right?

01:16:16 He's a producer on Squawk and Friends in the morning,

01:16:18 and he was on Fast Money for years,

01:16:20 dear friend of all of ours.

01:16:21 So again, do you think it's as interesting

01:16:25 for the regular viewer of CNBC, right,

01:16:27 to hear about all this media coverage?

01:16:29 You've been reporting on it forever.

01:16:31 We talked about all these stories that you broke.

01:16:32 And of late, I mean, all the AT&T reporting

01:16:35 that you've been doing.

01:16:36 Talk to us a little bit about that,

01:16:37 because in your career now, we've seen M&A,

01:16:40 bundling, unbundling, you know, like spin outs,

01:16:43 all that sort of stuff.

01:16:44 Where are we right now in this whole process

01:16:46 in the speed in which AT&T unwound the Time Warner deal?

01:16:51 I'd never seen anything like that to that scale.

01:16:53 And so did it usher in a new period

01:16:56 of just the kind of media conglomerates,

01:16:57 are we gonna start seeing all this stuff being unwound?

01:16:59 I don't know.

01:17:00 I think AT&T is sort of a unique situation.

01:17:03 It was, as you say, pretty stunning.

01:17:05 We were talking at the very top sort of about scoops

01:17:08 that in the last few years,

01:17:09 I haven't broken that many stories.

01:17:10 I sat there on that damn Warner Brothers story

01:17:13 for months, not weeks, so long that I almost forgot,

01:17:17 because I could not imagine, I had it,

01:17:20 but I had it, didn't have it quite right.

01:17:22 I couldn't imagine that AT&T

01:17:25 was gonna get rid of all of it.

01:17:27 I thought they're gonna sell Turner

01:17:29 and that's what it'll be, including CNN,

01:17:32 but I never imagined they'd part with HBO

01:17:34 and everything else.

01:17:35 Man, that still bums me out that I didn't break that.

01:17:37 And they know it too.

01:17:38 Even Zaslav knows.

01:17:39 He's like, "I know you're pissed off.

01:17:41 And that's why you're so mean to me

01:17:43 on when we did the interview."

01:17:46 Anyhow, I don't even know why I went there.

01:17:47 But listen, we cover the media a lot,

01:17:50 more than we probably should.

01:17:51 I think certain aspects of it, nobody cares.

01:17:54 When it comes to like streaming,

01:17:56 I mean, it's such a part of people's lives

01:17:58 that I think I enjoy covering it in part

01:18:00 because I do think it has,

01:18:01 everybody can connect to it immediately, right?

01:18:03 I say, "What's your favorite show on HBO?

01:18:05 What's your favorite?"

01:18:06 You probably don't even know anymore what they're on.

01:18:07 That goes to sort of the bigger issue,

01:18:09 but everybody connects to it in their lives.

01:18:11 So I like talking about it.

01:18:13 We are in the midst of this unique moment

01:18:15 where we have this huge shift going on

01:18:17 that I've been talking about,

01:18:20 hearing about, reporting on for 10, 15 years,

01:18:22 which is essentially the unbundling that you talked about,

01:18:25 the cord cutting.

01:18:26 And the question really is and remains,

01:18:29 we had this amazing cable ecosystem

01:18:31 that the three of us, by the way, have benefited from,

01:18:33 where you got all these people to pay you every month,

01:18:36 almost none of whom watched, and that's changing.

01:18:39 We know that's changing.

01:18:40 And the question becomes, indirect to consumer,

01:18:43 can you ever even come close

01:18:45 to recreating the economic model that you used to have?

01:18:48 I think we're starting to learn the answer is probably no.

01:18:51 And the question then becomes,

01:18:52 well, where is the sweet spot

01:18:54 in terms of what you have to invest

01:18:56 and what you can actually expect in a return?

01:18:58 And we don't know the answer yet.

01:18:59 So I am finding it fascinating.

01:19:00 I mean, we're sitting here, it's a Wednesday afternoon.

01:19:04 Am I allowed to say that?

01:19:05 - Yeah, and Disney's coming out after the closeout.

01:19:06 - Exactly, Disney's coming out.

01:19:08 We're gonna see what their direct to consumer looks like

01:19:10 and their numbers look like.

01:19:11 I think it's really interesting to watch this transition,

01:19:14 report on this transition

01:19:15 and the way people consume media.

01:19:19 - It's really funny.

01:19:19 So this morning on Squawk on the Street,

01:19:21 you and Kramer were talking about this,

01:19:23 and Kramer said they have to get away from Plus

01:19:25 and they have to talk about parks and all this.

01:19:27 And you're like, really?

01:19:28 You're like, do you think they're gonna be able to do that?

01:19:30 And I love that about your relationship with Jim

01:19:33 because the way in which you are able to push back on him

01:19:37 is really fascinating.

01:19:38 It helps tease out some of these stories

01:19:40 because you guys are both approaching these same stories

01:19:43 from different viewpoints.

01:19:44 You often as a reporter,

01:19:46 him as slightly a market participant, would you almost say?

01:19:48 And so it's really interesting to see that come out

01:19:51 'cause I hadn't thought about that yet.

01:19:52 And I guess by the time the listener hears this,

01:19:55 we're gonna know if they were successful in doing that.

01:19:58 But your view very simply,

01:19:59 and Guy's been saying this, Guy,

01:20:01 you've been annoyed with all the throwing the Plus

01:20:03 on the end of the thing and saying it's streaming

01:20:05 and this and that.

01:20:05 It just seems like putting lipstick on a pig

01:20:08 for a declining or a melting ice cube

01:20:10 that we've seen now for the last 20 years or so.

01:20:13 So again, thoughts on Disney though,

01:20:16 because this is a fascinating situation

01:20:19 with JPEG and Eiger.

01:20:21 Any interesting insights there?

01:20:22 My take is if you gave me the over under of two years

01:20:26 on JPEG out, I'd take the under in a heartbeat.

01:20:28 - You would? - Yeah.

01:20:29 - I will not weigh in on that.

01:20:30 Probably not a good idea.

01:20:31 I will say, people still say Eiger.

01:20:33 Eiger's gone, it's over.

01:20:34 - It's it?

01:20:35 - He's out, totally out, not involved.

01:20:37 This is JPEG's company, love him or hate him.

01:20:40 The decisions he makes are obviously gonna be

01:20:43 very consequential to his own future at the company.

01:20:45 Right, he's already 63 years old.

01:20:47 He's made these targets 230 million to 260 million

01:20:50 direct to consumer subs by the end of 24.

01:20:53 He knows the parks really well.

01:20:54 They've done a bunch of stuff there.

01:20:55 This mess in Florida that he got themselves into,

01:20:58 you know, it's tough.

01:21:00 Guy, you were talking about communicating

01:21:02 and effectively communicating.

01:21:04 You know, there's another example of it,

01:21:05 sort of understanding how to navigate things like that.

01:21:08 Disney's a perfect example.

01:21:10 It'd be interesting to hear from JPEG soon,

01:21:11 and I hope we do.

01:21:13 - You mentioned transitioning.

01:21:14 I'm gonna do that now.

01:21:15 For many of our audience members,

01:21:17 these two years will have no meaning whatsoever.

01:21:19 But I guarantee when you hear them, they will.

01:21:22 1969 and 1986.

01:21:26 And David's smiling because he knows in '69,

01:21:28 both your teams emerged victorious,

01:21:31 and the Mets in '86.

01:21:32 So you have to pick one.

01:21:34 Only the Jets can win the Super Bowl,

01:21:37 or the Mets can win a World Series

01:21:38 for the remainder of your lifetime.

01:21:40 Which way are you going?

01:21:41 - Oh, that's brutal.

01:21:43 That is brutal.

01:21:47 Strangely, because I have at least lived

01:21:49 through a Mets World Series victory,

01:21:52 even though I was sadly alive in 1969,

01:21:55 I have no real memory of the Jets winning the Super Bowl.

01:21:58 I think the Jets winning the Super Bowl.

01:22:01 I think that would be the one.

01:22:02 And I think that's the more unlikely one

01:22:04 in my lifetime at this point.

01:22:05 I'm starting to think--

01:22:06 - Well, as we mentioned earlier,

01:22:07 the way your team's playing this year,

01:22:09 the Mets, to me right now,

01:22:10 they're playing the best baseball in Major League Baseball.

01:22:13 I think you got a great shot this year,

01:22:14 and it pains me to say it as a Yankee fan.

01:22:16 I'll also say this,

01:22:17 the thought of potentially playing the Mets

01:22:19 as a Yankee fan in the World Series

01:22:21 scares the shit out of me.

01:22:23 The other thing that scares the shit out of me

01:22:25 is appearing on "Jeopardy!"

01:22:27 And I gotta tell you, I'm gonna throw a name out.

01:22:29 Maybe this means something to you, maybe it doesn't.

01:22:31 Harry Dean Stanton.

01:22:32 Does it mean anything to you whatsoever?

01:22:35 - Yeah, I kinda remember him, right?

01:22:36 He was an actor.

01:22:38 - He was an actor.

01:22:39 One of his great roles was in "Escape from New York,"

01:22:42 and his nickname in that movie was The Brain.

01:22:44 People call you that for good reason,

01:22:46 and I tell you, when you go on "Jeopardy!"

01:22:48 you kick ass, and I was rooting for you to get that job.

01:22:51 How close were you to potentially being

01:22:54 the full-time host of "Jeopardy!"?

01:22:57 - It was a decent shot.

01:22:58 I had a decent shot there.

01:23:00 A lot of things didn't cut my way,

01:23:02 including a very strange decision-making process

01:23:07 and the sort of contest ending with the executive producer

01:23:12 getting the job, however briefly.

01:23:15 And that threw the whole thing off,

01:23:16 and that, I think, scared some of the big shots

01:23:20 at Sony in particular.

01:23:21 He was on our air earlier.

01:23:22 I don't even care anymore.

01:23:23 Tony Vincent Cuero from making a decision

01:23:24 that should have been me, most likely, but it wasn't.

01:23:27 I mean, he still hasn't made a decision.

01:23:29 They've just got those two, and they're great,

01:23:31 but I had heard some things that once they sort of brought

01:23:34 a new showrunner in, a new executive producer,

01:23:37 that they were going to really move forward

01:23:39 with a new host, and I had an expectation, perhaps,

01:23:42 that was not realized, but that's Hollywood, baby.

01:23:46 - How much fun was it hosting?

01:23:48 I mean, it seemed like you were having a great time.

01:23:51 I think you did, if memory serves,

01:23:53 you did five episodes, am I right, or was it more?

01:23:55 - That's it, just five episodes.

01:23:56 You tape 'em all in one day, yeah.

01:23:58 - How much fun was that?

01:24:00 - It was kind of nerve-wracking, actually.

01:24:01 I mean, there were moments that were great.

01:24:04 They take you to their library at the back of the lot,

01:24:07 the Sony lot, and it's like the Jeopardy library,

01:24:10 and there's actual books.

01:24:11 It's not, you know, and you sit down

01:24:13 with the writers of the show,

01:24:15 and you go over all the clues, and that was the most fun.

01:24:18 I would look up, I was like,

01:24:19 "Wow, I can't believe I'm doing this,"

01:24:21 and it was really interesting,

01:24:22 'cause you have questions on certain of the clues,

01:24:26 and how to pronounce things, of course,

01:24:28 as well as an important component of it,

01:24:30 but they're actually pulling books off the shelf,

01:24:31 and like looking up answers, or I should say,

01:24:34 excuse me, correct responses.

01:24:36 You don't say answer on Jeopardy.

01:24:38 That was great, but the actual taping of it was,

01:24:40 I have to admit, a little nerve-wracking.

01:24:42 As long as I've been on TV, nonetheless,

01:24:43 they like things done the way they like them done.

01:24:45 You wanna get it right.

01:24:46 I was trying, obviously, to do the best job I possibly could,

01:24:49 and so I'd be lying if I said it was just fun.

01:24:52 Retrospect, I'm so glad I had that chance.

01:24:55 I wish it had been more than five shows.

01:24:57 Even just two weeks would have been really,

01:24:58 even more fun, 'cause I think I would've got better at it,

01:25:01 and I always want to get better at things,

01:25:03 but I'm very grateful I had that chance,

01:25:05 'cause it was a once-in-a-lifetime.

01:25:06 - Before I worked at the network, I was a huge fan.

01:25:09 I've become a bigger fan.

01:25:11 I wish we saw each other more frequently,

01:25:14 but I'm privileged to call you a friend.

01:25:16 Thanks for joining us on the tape.

01:25:17 - It's my pleasure, and I look forward

01:25:18 to seeing you in the studio more often.

01:25:20 - Oh, there it is.

01:25:21 That must've come from EC, guy.

01:25:23 That was a little message there, man.

01:25:25 - No, it wasn't.

01:25:26 He's got a great presence, a great physical presence, too.

01:25:30 Don't you think it's important?

01:25:31 - We say this all the time.

01:25:32 I mean, literally, he was an original, Fast Money,

01:25:35 and that whole show, it wouldn't have the brand

01:25:38 that it does without Guy, and so I'm very fortunate

01:25:41 to work with him every day, and I do enjoy it very much.

01:25:43 When you are on set, Guy Adami,

01:25:45 but the other thing is, I'll just say, David Faber,

01:25:47 you and I have gotten to know each other

01:25:49 over the last, I don't know, 10 years or so,

01:25:51 and just your work is just remarkable,

01:25:53 like the respect that we have,

01:25:55 and I come at it very similar to Guy in a way.

01:25:57 I'm not a media person.

01:25:58 I'm a market participant, and I was watching you

01:26:00 long before I was ever on CNBC's air,

01:26:03 and the amount of respect that you have

01:26:04 in the investment community, the banking community,

01:26:06 that sort of thing, is just astounding.

01:26:08 So I am very fortunate to call you a friend, a colleague,

01:26:10 and we wish you another, what, 10 years maybe on CNBC?

01:26:14 Would that be fortunate?

01:26:14 - I mean, I'll just take 10 more years on this planet.

01:26:17 We'll start with that, and then we'll take it from there.

01:26:18 - Hey, Guy, he'll look the same as he does right now,

01:26:20 10 years from now, probably, right?

01:26:22 - It's remarkable, and swimming, and David knows this,

01:26:24 every day you're out of the pool,

01:26:26 it's like two days not being in the pool,

01:26:28 so you gotta stay with it.

01:26:29 I mean, I know.

01:26:30 - I know, believe me, I'm moving a lot slower

01:26:32 than I used to.

01:26:33 It's not pretty, but you gotta, half of it's psychological,

01:26:36 but you gotta keep pushing, right, Guy?

01:26:38 I mean, you know that.

01:26:40 You still, you do those triathletes or whatever.

01:26:42 - Stay moving.

01:26:43 - Yeah, I'll stay moving.

01:26:44 Guys, this was so much fun.

01:26:45 Thank you both for having me.

01:26:46 - Thanks, man, we hope you come back.

01:26:47 - I really enjoyed it, really fun, thank you.

01:26:49 - Thanks once again to CME Group and iConnections

01:26:53 for sponsoring this episode of On the Tape.

01:26:56 If you like what you heard, make sure you hit follow

01:26:59 and leave us a review.

01:27:00 It helps people find our show,

01:27:02 and we love hearing from you.

01:27:04 You can also email us at onthetape@riskreversal.com anytime.

01:27:09 Follow and connect with us on Twitter @OnTheTapePod,

01:27:13 and we'll see you next time.

01:27:15 On the Tape is a Risk Reversal Media production.

01:27:18 This podcast is for informational purposes only.

01:27:21 All opinions expressed by me, Dan Nathan,

01:27:23 Guy Adami, Danny Moses, and any other participants

01:27:26 are solely our opinions and should not be relied upon

01:27:29 for specific investment decisions.

01:27:30 (upbeat music)

01:27:33 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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