- #Sensex, #Nifty gain
- #Zee hits lower circuit on #Sony deal collapse
Take stock of the derivative markets with Agam Vakil and Samina Nalwala on 'The F&O Show'. #NDTVProfitLive
- #Zee hits lower circuit on #Sony deal collapse
Take stock of the derivative markets with Agam Vakil and Samina Nalwala on 'The F&O Show'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
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04:36 - Welcome to the show, a show in which we take you through
04:38 all that is happening in the futures and options space
04:40 in Indian equity markets.
04:41 For now, we are looking at some amount of pressure
04:44 returned to Indian markets,
04:46 and that is largely on account of its largest bank HDFC,
04:50 which is under pressure yet again.
04:52 We have the Nifty, which is down,
04:54 well, it's in the green by around 0.2%,
04:58 but the mid-cap Nifty has, pardon me,
05:01 the fin Nifty has declined by around 0.2%,
05:04 which is of course facing the options expiry today,
05:07 and the bank Nifty is down around 0.4%.
05:10 So while we do have strength
05:11 in several other private sector banks,
05:13 which would include something like a Kotak Mantra Bank
05:15 or ICICI Bank, that really has not been able
05:19 to counter the weakness on account of HDFC Bank.
05:23 Let's pull up the constituents of the bank Nifty
05:25 and take a look at where we are in fact looking at
05:27 that weakness in terms of F&O placements,
05:30 specifically index futures.
05:32 So you do have HDFC along with HDFC Bank.
05:36 Of course, we do have IDFC along with that as well,
05:39 which is weighing down on the benchmark indices.
05:41 Only ICICI and Kotak Mantra Bank in the green at the moment.
05:45 Save for that, everything else is weighing on the indices
05:49 along with the markets.
05:51 Let's take a look at the futures and options space,
05:53 and at least as far as the Nifty futures go,
05:56 while we are looking at its underlying,
05:59 moving up around 0.2%,
06:01 we're going to have to pull up that on your screen.
06:04 There you're looking at a good 17% change
06:07 as far as open interest is concerned.
06:08 Let's move on and talk about the bank Nifty as well.
06:11 That's your Nifty futures.
06:13 We are looking at a 3.8% increase in OI.
06:16 Let's pull out the bank Nifty futures
06:18 and take a look at how things are panning out.
06:21 While we do have a decline of around 0.4%,
06:24 the bank Nifty, well, the open interest hasn't really changed as much.
06:28 It's to the tune of 1%, no more than that.
06:31 Let's move on and talk about how the options market
06:34 is panning out at the moment.
06:35 Remember, we did speak about the 21,500 put
06:40 as the one with the max OI.
06:43 And on the top end, we are looking at 22,000 call
06:46 as the one with the max OI.
06:48 So that's your distribution.
06:49 That really hasn't changed as much in today's trade.
06:52 But can we take a look at the change in open interest distribution
06:55 and where we are seeing, in fact, a lot of increase in OI
06:59 and a decrease in OI.
07:01 Let's pull that up as well.
07:02 And that should come up for you on your screen.
07:04 So there you have it.
07:05 While the Nifty has advanced in today's trade,
07:08 there is a lot more writing in high-level calls,
07:11 which would include something like 21, 700, 21, 800 calls.
07:15 That said, overall, as far as the Nifty is concerned,
07:19 we haven't seen too much change,
07:20 but the bank Nifty certainly is under pressure.
07:23 The question really is what do you do from this?
07:26 And at the moment, we are, of course, keeping an eye
07:28 on a whole host of factors that are, in fact, weighing down on the markets.
07:32 Let's pull up HDFC Bank and very quickly take a look
07:36 at how things are panning out, at least as far as futures are concerned.
07:39 Because remember, HDFC is declining for the fifth straight session,
07:42 well away from the mark of--well, we were talking about--
07:49 yeah, there you have it.
07:50 It's well away from the mark of 1,600 rupees per share.
07:53 It's currently at around 1,450 odd rupees per share.
07:57 And as far as your futures go, that's where we are continuing
08:02 to see more selling pressure coming through.
08:05 And, in fact, HDFC Bank's market capitalization,
08:08 our post-merger has been so big, and because of that,
08:12 its weightage has been so huge that we have a consequent impact
08:19 on both the benchmarks that could include the bank nifty
08:22 as well as the nifty.
08:24 And HDFC Bank is now seeing a further decline of around 2%,
08:29 even as we see an open interest unwinding of 5.4%.
08:33 Of course, we'll continue to keep an eye on that one.
08:36 Speaking of which, let's also pull up Zee Entertainment, right,
08:39 because Zee Entertainment has also been under pressure right now.
08:42 And, well, for now, what we are seeing is, at least as far as the futures go,
08:46 let's pull that up quickly and take a look at how things are, well, moving on.
08:52 And we are keeping an eye on Zee Entertainment.
08:54 That should come up for you on your screen in terms of the futures.
08:57 And, all right, so it is locked in a lower circuit at around 10%.
09:00 It's in an EFRO stock.
09:02 But speaking of which, we have an NDTV Profit Exclusive
09:06 on the Zee Sony merger collapse, and we have Tamanna who's joining us
09:10 to give us more.
09:12 Tamanna, good morning. What are you gathering from your sources?
09:15 The big question in the run-up to what was being speculated for long,
09:20 that was that the Zee Sony deal would eventually come away, is what went wrong?
09:25 Remember, these negotiations have been going on for over three years.
09:29 There was an extension of a month in which good-faith negotiations were on.
09:33 So what finally happened?
09:35 We now have the inside details of the last few attempts
09:40 at having this deal go through.
09:43 We have learned from sources close to the deal that two proposals from Zee
09:48 were rejected by Sony towards the end, and an extension timeline request
09:55 by Zee was also rejected.
09:57 Now, what were these two proposals?
09:59 Now, sources close to the deal tell us that Zee has been trying
10:02 to get the deal through to the last breath, but eventually it was Sony
10:07 that pulled the plug and, of course, had the upper hand.
10:10 Proposal number one was that Puneet Goenka stays at the helm initially,
10:16 that the merger go through as shareholders had envisioned and OKed it,
10:21 but soon after the merger, both sides would sit across the table
10:24 and hunt for a neutral CEO, one that would have been acceptable
10:29 to both Zee and to Sony. That was rejected.
10:32 Option number two, or proposal number two, was that Puneet Goenka stepped down.
10:37 Now, remember, as we've reported in the past, that was a big bone of contention,
10:41 though perhaps not the only one. So he did offer to step down,
10:44 but he did want at least a seat on the board for the promoter family
10:51 or a nominee of theirs. Remember, they hold about 4% share in the company.
10:55 That was rejected as well. So what was Sony then OK with?
10:59 What was their proposal, so to speak?
11:02 Their proposal was that Puneet Goenka goes, no negotiation on that,
11:06 and no board seat for Goenka or nominee.
11:10 Also, they wanted and were very clear, they've been saying that for a while,
11:13 that N.P. Singh should be CEO of the merged entity.
11:18 At the end of the day, and as, you know, sources have been telling me,
11:22 it came down to a battle of egos. It was very clear that no side was willing to blink.
11:28 Now, the question is what happens next? We know for sure, very clearly,
11:33 that Z is going to take the legal route. What are they challenging?
11:36 They'll have to go to the arbitration tribunal first.
11:39 They will challenge the $90 million demand that Sony has made for the deal to be broken off.
11:47 They will also be going to court and making the argument that all the conditions
11:52 for the deal that they were supposed to fulfill have been fulfilled on their side,
11:56 whatever they could have done in their own capacity.
12:00 They will also argue that there were a lot of costs that they've incurred as an entity
12:05 to get this deal through, including the cricketing rights that they bought,
12:09 including shutting down verticals in Japan and other nations
12:13 which would have been competitive for Sony. So they have incurred huge costs.
12:18 There is a likelihood that not only will they challenge this $90 million demand from Sony,
12:25 but come back with its own counterclaim. So watch this space. A lot is going to develop from here on.
12:31 Right. Tamana, thank you so much for getting us those updates.
12:34 Of course, Z is under pressure on account of the several developments that are occurring.
12:41 And there's no respite at the moment, considering we are looking at further selling
12:45 as far as Z Entertainment is concerned. But we'll continue to give you updates.
12:49 Of course, a lot of insight already has come through.
12:52 But on that note, we slip into a quick break. But on the other side, we talk about
12:57 what all that experts are recommending for us as far as markets go. Stay tuned in.
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15:19 Okay, well, welcome back. We're talking about another entrant in the, well, IPO space.
15:25 And this time, we have Mediassist Healthcare, which listed on the bosses with a good premium coming in.
15:31 We spoke to the management of the company about the growth trajectory going ahead.
15:35 And this is what they had to say. Listen in.
15:38 The company, in its primary business, is a third-party health insurance administrator.
15:45 The company has been around since 2002, and we work with our insurance partners or insurers,
15:54 and, of course, give access to policyholders into a network of hospitals,
16:00 and, of course, administratively manage the whole experience that relates to health insurance policies in India.
16:10 Sure, understood. Satish, if I can come to you, you know, with regard to your top line itself,
16:16 you've grown at 20 percent at least the last couple of years.
16:20 Would you see that 20 percent-plus kind of top-line growth continuing,
16:25 or would you see that as a challenge on the higher base as you keep growing?
16:34 Thank you, Azhar, for that. Maybe just, with your permission, I'll just take a step back.
16:39 We have three big revenue segments, right, within the India TPA business,
16:44 which is the group where we work with over 9,500 employers and in retail and in the government-sponsored projects.
16:52 So in each of the three segments, we have different growth rates,
16:55 and historically, group has grown much faster than the other segments.
16:59 But both in group and retail, we've grown faster than the market growth in the last three years,
17:04 and we hope to continue to match the market growth rates better as we move forward.
17:13 Sure, understood. So maybe market rate, but what's the kind of opportunities, Satish, if I can try and understand that?
17:20 So you'll continue to grow at market, so you won't probably acquire new market share,
17:25 but what's the opportunity like? You have a presence even in international markets.
17:31 Is the opportunity pie large enough for you to continue to probably gain a little bit of market share as well?
17:37 Just trying to understand some of those metrics.
17:43 Absolutely. We continue to be a very India-centric and India-focused business.
17:47 So the health insurance itself by premiums has been growing at about 20-odd percent year on year,
17:54 and with the government's focus on health insurance for all, by 2047, we expect that growth to even accelerate even further.
18:02 And within the group segment, we have a bar by health insurance premiums.
18:06 We have a 30 percent market share in the country, so there is still a significant room of growth that's available in the group business.
18:13 And retail, we're just even short of 10 percent by market share, so there's a significant amount of opportunity
18:20 as we continue to add more and more insurers, even in the Indian market, to our retail portfolio.
18:25 So there are no growth concerns.
18:28 And just to clarify, on the international side, so our international business is more an extension of what we do in India.
18:35 As India Inc. globalizes, as Indian employers send more and more of their employees abroad for short- and medium-term travels,
18:42 we have now the ability to deliver the same kind of cashless and the network services in over 140 countries across the globe.
18:51 But we still continue to be very India-focused from an acquisition of business perspective.
18:57 Welcome back. Well, it's time to shift back focus to all that is happening in the futures and options space.
19:02 Let's get in our experts for today.
19:04 We have Vinay Rajani, CMT, Senior Technical Analyst at HDFC Securities.
19:09 And along with that, we also have Ajit Mishra. He's the SVP of Research Relic Air Broking.
19:14 Good morning to both of you. Thanks for joining in. Ajit, I start with you.
19:18 How are you placed when it comes to the benchmarks? We have more weakness on account of HDFC Bank.
19:22 What do we do when it comes to the Nifty and the Bank Nifty?
19:26 Good morning, Gagan. So last week in the final sessions, Nifty tried to make an attempt to hold the short-term averages
19:34 after reclaiming it on Wednesday. But today, the way we are seeing that index majors,
19:43 HDFC alongside with Reliance is pushing the markets lower. It's become difficult for index to maintain this 21,500 mark.
19:50 So in case if we slip further lower and reach this level, I expect this profit taking or consolidation that we are seeing
19:58 with the negative bias will continue in the market.
20:01 This is a sell-on-rise market until we decisively reclaim 21,800 mark.
20:05 And banking also in the last trading session, it was in fact banking which outperformed the index.
20:11 But today we are seeing that all the gains were wiped out and we are again inching towards 45,300.
20:17 So banking, I feel that it's prudent to stay away because we expect this volatility to continue.
20:23 We have other numbers also scheduled during the day among the private players.
20:27 So Nifty definitely looks weak to us and one can definitely look for a shorting opportunity.
20:33 If the view is short-term intraday, then with the stop at around 21,620, one can go even short
20:40 even at current levels with 21,400 as a target.
20:43 Okay, Vinay, good morning to you as well. Your view on the benchmarks at the moment, how have you placed?
20:49 Yeah, so definitely setup has turned weak and last week we saw Nifty falling by 1.5%
20:56 and open interest went up by 12%. In Bank Nifty, we saw a short build-up of 24%.
21:01 So in both Nifty and Bank Nifty, last week's data suggested a weakness
21:05 and bearish engulfing pattern was also witnessed on the weekly charts of Nifty
21:09 and Bank Nifty was already into a downtrend.
21:11 So overall, the trend was down because of the ICICI Bank's good result.
21:16 It opened higher but somehow it is facing a selling pressure as of now.
21:21 So I feel overall a selling opportunity at higher levels.
21:24 In intraday, we have already seen a good amount of selling coming in
21:28 and the levels have changed in the last half an hour or so.
21:31 So 500 points correction already we have seen in the intraday in Bank Nifty.
21:35 So intraday pullbacks can be utilized to go short in Bank Nifty as well as in Nifty.
21:41 So I would suggest that Nifty is currently future placed at 21,550.
21:46 If it comes up around 100 points recovery or 80 points recovery at higher levels, one can go short.
21:51 So I would rather recommend to go short on intraday rallies.
21:55 21,600 can be utilized at a short level and 21,700 can be kept as a stop-loss.
22:01 On the downside, I am expecting that Nifty is heading towards the 21,400 target
22:06 and Bank Nifty around 45,900 one can go short with a stop-loss of 400 points.
22:12 So stop-loss would come at 46,300.
22:15 On the downside, I am expecting Bank Nifty to hit a downside target of 45,200 to 300.
22:21 So overall, intraday pullbacks should be utilized to go short in Nifty as well as on Bank Nifty.
22:26 Okay, there you have it. Largely a negative view coming in as far as benchmarks are concerned.
22:31 From there on, we will shift focus to all the stocks which are buzzing in trade.
22:34 Before I do that, let's pull up the list of all the stocks which are seeing an increase in open interest
22:40 in today's day of trade whereby we can understand what's really going on.
22:44 Pharma is at the top of your list. We are looking at Lupin and Sipla,
22:47 which are looking at a little bit of an increase.
22:50 But Sipla, of course, is clearly the pharma stock of the day.
22:53 We are looking at a lot of longs building in there.
22:56 And we also have longs in Bharti Airtel. Bharti Airtel is also up and about
23:00 and a good 3% increase in its underlying.
23:03 Dalmia Bharat and Max Financial, on the other hand, are looking at some short building into the system.
23:08 And in terms of stocks which are seeing unwinding, that is a decline in open interest,
23:13 we are looking at Sun TV, GNFC and Bandhan Bank, all of them looking at longs unwinding.
23:20 So the Gujarat Gas and Metropolis are the other two counters which are seeing about a short covering.
23:24 But remember that underlying hasn't really moved more than 1%.
23:27 I want to pull up the constituents of the Bank Nifty and take a look at where we are looking at a little more change.
23:34 So as you can see on your screen there, there's no letting up on HDFC Bank.
23:39 It declines. It continues to decline by around 2%.
23:42 And the longs unwinding are to the tune of nearly 6.2%.
23:46 ICICI Bank and Kotak Maidra Bank are the only two counters on the Bank Nifty which are in the green for now.
23:52 Say for that, all the other banks are under pressure, declining.
23:56 And also looking at some amount of longs unwinding.
24:00 So we did see about a short covering last Saturday.
24:04 But now Axis Bank, State Bank of India, IndusInd Bank, all of them are looking at further weakness
24:09 and a lot of longs unwinding coming through.
24:11 The question really is can we in fact expect any sort of respite?
24:15 For now, it doesn't seem like it.
24:18 There's more pressure as far as HDFC Bank is concerned.
24:22 Let's move on and talk about picks from our expert.
24:26 Vinay, I'll come to you. What stocks are you looking at and what are they on your radar today?
24:31 So basically we have seen some sort of profit booking coming to the PSU segment.
24:37 And HPCL is one of the stocks which outperformed till now.
24:40 But the kind of profit booking and selling we have seen in the intraday session,
24:45 I think this is a short-term downtrend starting in HPCL January future.
24:50 One can go short as a trading pick.
24:52 So 450 to 453 is a level in January future for HPCL.
24:57 One can go short here keeping a stop-loss at 460.
24:59 On the downside, I'm expecting a target of 438.
25:02 So overall, OMCs and PSU stocks can come down a bit for the short term.
25:06 So that's why I'm recommending going short in HPCL January future.
25:09 On the long side, I would pick a stock from the pharma space, Zydus Life.
25:13 So Zydus Life today is showing a great amount of strength.
25:17 Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy's and other pharma stocks have been demand resilient in today's session.
25:23 So I think pharma as a defensive sector can perform well in this kind of scenario.
25:28 So I think Zydus Life January futures can go long at 718.
25:33 Stop-loss can be kept at 705.
25:35 On the upside, target can be kept at 745.
25:38 So overall, Zydus Life looks good for going long and one can go short in HPCL January future.
25:44 Ajit, what about you? What's on your radar today?
25:47 So Akram, obviously pharma should be in your trading bets considering that we are seeing excessive volatility on the index.
25:57 And pharma sector is also holding strong amid all this volatile swing.
26:02 So Dr. Reddy's, I feel, is one candidate that one can look at from the pharma basket.
26:07 It's almost like three months of consolidation that we've been seeing in the stock.
26:10 Upper band around 5900.
26:12 After retesting the same, it retraced marginally towards the support zone of the long-term moving averages on the weekly charts.
26:19 And now we are again seeing a base formation.
26:21 So we expect this consolidation to end with the recovery.
26:25 And 5883 is something that we are eyeing in Dr. Reddy's.
26:29 So with stop at 5631 can go long.
26:32 Other name from the metal space wherein we are seeing consolidation and still not participating on the downside.
26:39 So Tata Steel is showing strength and we feel that as long as we are holding above 130 mark,
26:43 there is a potential that the stock may again witness fresh traction and inch toward 140 levels.
26:48 Okay, so those are two buy calls coming in from Ajit.
26:53 Dr. Reddy's and Tata Steel, of course, we have seen a big surge in pharma stocks, not just in Cipla,
27:00 but a whole host of counters from the pharmaceutical space.
27:03 Of course, we continue to keep an eye on that one.
27:06 But on that note, we have run out of time on this show.
27:09 So I'm going to take a moment to thank both our experts, Vinay and Ajit,
27:12 for joining us and taking us through their views on the markets as well as giving us a handful of trading ideas.
27:18 But it's a wrap on this show.
27:20 But lots more lined up on the other side.
27:22 Stay tuned to NETV Profit.
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