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01:50 Good morning, and thanks so much for joining in.
01:53 You're watching Ask Prophet.
01:54 My name is Alex Matthew, and with me is Smriti Choudhury.
01:56 We'll take you through the next half an hour or so of trade.
01:59 Like the name suggests, this is a show
02:01 that is geared up to get you answers to all
02:03 your stock-related questions.
02:05 So if you've got those questions about stocks
02:08 that you would like to buy, or in fact,
02:10 stocks that you're holding and you want advice on,
02:12 then you should write in to us on any one
02:14 of our social media platforms, or indeed,
02:16 on the WhatsApp number that should be flashing
02:18 on your screen right now.
02:20 Now, let's take a look very quickly
02:21 at where the markets are.
02:23 And in fact, you have the Nifty 50
02:24 that's at very close to the low point of the day,
02:27 down about a third of a percent or thereabouts.
02:29 And you've seen quite a bit of selling over the last one
02:31 and a half hours or so.
02:33 And a few of those constituents stand out.
02:35 On the losing end, you have HDFC Bank,
02:37 which is the worst performer on the benchmark.
02:39 And on the gaining end, you have Cipla,
02:41 as well as a few other big names that are gaining ground.
02:44 Cipla, for example, up over 7% at this juncture.
02:48 And you have ICICI Bank, which is also
02:50 doing particularly well on the back of its results.
02:52 In fact, it is the biggest contributor
02:55 to the Nifty 50 at this juncture.
02:58 The advance decline ratio is now skewed
03:00 in favor of the declines.
03:02 That has changed in the span of the session so far.
03:06 It started off with the advances in the winning seat.
03:09 But we're focusing on one particular stock
03:11 that is losing significant ground today.
03:14 In fact, it was the stock of the day
03:16 we spent quite a while discussing this.
03:18 This is Zee Entertainment.
03:20 It has now hit a 20% lower circuit.
03:23 It earlier hit a 15% lower circuit.
03:26 But to tell you about where we stand right now,
03:28 of course, their headline is about the deal
03:31 having fallen through with Sony's announcement.
03:34 But Tamanna is joining in to tell you
03:36 the story behind that headline.
03:38 Tamanna, what can you tell us?
03:40 Well, thank you, Alex.
03:41 Remember, we broke the story first on India market open,
03:47 before markets opened.
03:48 And you've seen the tumble in the stock
03:51 now at its third socket for the day,
03:53 at 20% down.
03:55 And remember, the target price for Zee
03:57 has reduced as low as 170.
03:59 There are some brokerages out there
04:01 who are looking at 130, at least a 25% knock.
04:04 So that's happening as we speak.
04:06 Now, what are the exclusive details we have?
04:08 It's about how this negotiation,
04:11 which went on really for three years and four months,
04:14 finally ended despite a one-month extension.
04:18 Remember, till about 20th of Jan,
04:20 good faith negotiations were still on
04:22 between the two parties.
04:24 But at the end of it, it came down to three rejections
04:27 from Sony's side that actually pulled the plug.
04:30 First, two rejections of proposals from Zee.
04:32 And the third rejection on a request
04:34 for extension of timeline.
04:36 So first, let's tell you what the two proposals were.
04:39 The first proposal by Zee, and remember,
04:41 these details you saw exclusively first on Indutv Profit,
04:44 was that let the merger go through
04:46 as approved by shareholders,
04:48 which meant the merged entity would first begin
04:51 with Puneet Goenka at the helm.
04:53 But going forward, there would be a conversation.
04:56 They'd sit across the table from each other
04:58 and actually negotiate the hunt for a neutral CEO,
05:03 one that would be acceptable to both sides,
05:05 Zee and Sony.
05:07 This proposal was rejected by Sony.
05:10 Let's come to the second proposal,
05:12 which was that Puneet Goenka will step down.
05:14 And this is important,
05:16 because that was the bone of contention.
05:18 Sony ostensibly did not want Puneet Goenka
05:21 at the helm of affairs.
05:22 So he was willing to step down,
05:24 but what Zee was asking for was a board seat
05:27 for Mr. Goenka or the promoter family,
05:30 slash a nominee.
05:32 So one board seat.
05:33 Remember, at this point, they have just 4% share
05:36 in the company.
05:37 This also was rejected by Sony.
05:39 So what was acceptable?
05:41 What was the combination acceptable to Sony?
05:43 It was flat out that Puneet Goenka goes,
05:46 there is no board seat,
05:48 and N.P. Singh becomes the head of the new merged entity.
05:53 That is really where the negotiations broke down.
05:56 But what the market will also look at
05:57 is what happens next,
05:59 because the story is not ending here.
06:01 Zee is surely headed to court,
06:03 and a legal battle is the next leg of this entire story.
06:07 Thank you, Tumana, for that.
06:08 Lots of inside scoop of what's happening
06:11 in the Zee and Sony merger that's now broken down.
06:15 But let's take a view from our guests for today.
06:17 We have Mr. Vinit Bolingjkar of Ventura Securities
06:21 and Rajesh Palvi of Axis Securities.
06:23 Welcome to both of you.
06:25 Vinit, I'll come to you on Zee first.
06:27 Clearly, we're seeing a 20% downtick in the stock,
06:31 but everyone is holding the stock.
06:32 And what kind of trajectory do you see for the stock
06:35 from going on, going from here on?
06:38 So I think there's a lot of uncertainty creeping in.
06:41 Obviously, the Sony Zee merger was a defensive kind of move
06:46 to combat with Reliance and Disney,
06:50 who are tied up together.
06:52 And now this makes Zee a very fringe player,
06:55 although they're very good on their content.
06:59 But on the OTT platforms, they still tend to lag behind.
07:03 And to take on the might of Reliance and Disney
07:07 would be very difficult.
07:08 And I see that their market shares will erode going ahead.
07:13 So it's going to be a tall task managing the market share
07:16 and maintaining profitability.
07:18 So to my mind, this stock would be in the avoid category completely.
07:24 But then, see, the question is, it's not going to get resolved,
07:27 Vinit, over the next couple of weeks, one would think.
07:31 It's going to be a little while,
07:33 and this is seemingly heading into a legal battle as well
07:35 between the two.
07:37 There is a legal claim that is being made.
07:40 What, $90 million is what the claim is from Sony,
07:43 and that, I believe, is going to be contested by Zee.
07:46 The question is, if you're holding on to this stock,
07:48 and there are only sellers in the stock as we speak right now,
07:51 what do you do with it? At what point do you exit?
07:56 So, you know, I think some kind of value
07:58 will start emerging below 200 bucks.
08:01 Until then, I think it's going to be a kind of--
08:05 it's already below 200.
08:06 So, you know, around--
08:09 you know, whenever the dust settles in this,
08:11 whenever the stock starts trading sidewise,
08:14 and there is some buyers coming in,
08:18 I think that is a point when you should look to add, if possible.
08:23 But, you know, as I said, this stock is completely a no-no in my mind,
08:26 and one should be exiting this.
08:29 We've got several questions coming in,
08:31 and, you know, let's start taking the viewer queries as well.
08:35 We've got Devang, who's writing in from Ahmedabad,
08:37 who we'll take first.
08:39 He's got a short-term query on IRB Infra,
08:41 which he's bought 2,500 shares of,
08:44 and he's got this at 36 rupees a share.
08:48 It is currently trading at very close to that 50 rupee mark.
08:51 He's looking at both the short-term and the long-term prospects.
08:54 On the charts, then, how does it look, Rajesh?
09:01 Technically, the stock is looking very strong.
09:03 The stock is almost trading near to its all-time high trajectory,
09:06 looking at the weekly, monthly setup.
09:08 We believe that if the stock continues to hold above 45, 46 level,
09:13 then possibly we can see further more traction on the higher side,
09:16 towards 55 to 58 kind of level.
09:19 So I think he can hold the long position.
09:22 The trailing stop-loss now should be at around 45 rupees,
09:25 and we believe that further more momentum we can see in the coming weeks
09:29 for the stock. So overall structure is bullish.
09:32 Alright, thanks for that.
09:34 We have another question from Amol on an IPO listing.
09:38 It's called Max Posure.
09:40 It listed at a massive premium of 340% today.
09:45 Vineet, have you had a chance to look at the stock?
09:49 We have a viewer asking that should they buy at this juncture
09:52 now that there's a 340% premium in the listing,
09:55 or should they keep holding on to the stock?
09:57 No, I have not tried that stock, so it's a little difficult for me to comment on.
10:01 Alright, we definitely can't take a technical view on that.
10:05 So we'll quickly jump to the next one.
10:07 We have another one from Geeta,
10:09 and they're talking about Medha Kurnex and HPL Par.
10:13 Should they buy at today's levels,
10:15 and they want to hold the stock for three years?
10:17 Would you have a view on this, Vineet, the two stocks?
10:20 Yeah, see, both are in the new-age areas of energy
10:24 and the railway story.
10:27 So I believe that these stocks have got significant growth opportunities
10:32 given the fact that the market for their products are very, very huge,
10:38 not only in the case of HPL for India,
10:40 but for Kurnex, it's also a possibility of the global market opening.
10:44 So we tend to be buyers of both these stocks,
10:47 and one can accumulate them on decline
10:49 since the market is weakening right as we speak.
10:52 Okay, I'm just pulling up Happy Forgings,
10:55 and this is a question coming in from Puneet Saxena.
11:00 He's writing in from Ghaziabad.
11:02 I'm not sure if we have enough data on this.
11:04 In fact, let's pull up the Max chart
11:06 to see whether or not we can get something from the price.
11:10 But he's bought at IPO price,
11:12 and he's wondering whether to hold for the short term,
11:16 and he's open to hold for the next one year or so.
11:20 So do you have enough, Rajesh, to tell us about the chartically,
11:26 how does it look?
11:28 So I think we don't have much data,
11:31 but post listing stock is continuously in corrective move,
11:35 and looking at the overall structure,
11:37 we believe that supply pressure is there on a daily, weekly timeframe also.
11:41 That clearly shows some more downtick we can see in the stock.
11:47 So post listing, I think, stock is still at 10% kind of gain post listing.
11:53 So we believe that if it continues to trade below 975,000 rupees,
11:58 then possibly it may go down further as looking at the limited data,
12:03 which we have, the lower side level,
12:06 we can see towards 900, even 880 kind of level on the downside.
12:09 But again, I think one should focus at this moment on the financial
12:15 rather than on the technical levels,
12:16 because very limited data we have.
12:19 So it would not be justified to take a call based on the technical at this point.
12:24 Okay. Sorry. I'm just going to very quickly toss it to Vineet,
12:29 if he's got a view on the fundamentals for this one. Happy forging.
12:33 So, you know, they're developing some new innovative products
12:36 that they're coming out with.
12:38 So I would want to, you know, if I was owning the stock,
12:42 I would want to hold on to find out what's happening with the stock,
12:45 and I would give it a probably a year's time to see how the story pans out of that.
12:51 All right. Next up, we have a question from Suryansh Agarwal.
12:54 He's talking about two, three stocks, and he wants a target price for the shorter term.
12:59 So Rajesh, this one's for you. There's Gale, there's Innova CapTab, and there's Ambuja.
13:04 If you can just give the target price for the short term for these three stocks.
13:10 So Gale is looking promising and looking at the overall structure.
13:14 The stock is still trading above a 20 day moving average,
13:16 and oil and gas sector is showing good traction.
13:19 So for Gale, keep your stop loss at around 156, and on the higher side,
13:24 the target where we can see is 175 to 180.
13:28 Ambuja Cement, some corrective move is taking place,
13:31 but still, if you analyze the overall structure for the stock,
13:35 the stock is in a bullish trajectory for near term to short term perspective also.
13:40 So 515 should be your stop loss to hold your long position.
13:44 On the higher side, once the stock crosses above 545-550 mark,
13:48 then possibly we can see a target towards 580 on a short to medium term perspective.
13:55 Third one is Innova CapTab.
13:59 Okay. So this stock is consolidating since last couple of trading sessions,
14:05 though we don't have much data for the stock.
14:09 So we can't comment on short to medium term,
14:12 but at this moment, the stop loss should be at around 500,
14:17 whatever limited data which we have.
14:19 500 should be your stop loss, and on the higher side, 545-560 is the key resistance area.
14:26 If the stock crosses those levels,
14:28 then we can see good traction towards higher side on the 590 or 600 zone outs.
14:33 Okay. We've got several questions which we have to take,
14:37 we have to slip into a very quick break.
14:39 We'll start with a question on the Bank Nifty.
14:41 Manohar, do stay tuned and everybody else that has written in also stay tuned.
14:44 We'll be back before you know it.
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18:24 All right. Welcome back. You're watching Ask Profit.
18:26 And as we speak, Zee Entertainment has fallen further.
18:29 It is now down 25%.
18:31 We were speaking about this at the start of the program.
18:34 And in fact, we did get the advice from both our experts.
18:38 Let's take a question on the Bank Nifty then.
18:41 And it is a question from Manohar.
18:45 He's looking for the outlook on Bank Nifty.
18:48 He's got a, if I'm interpreting this correctly,
18:52 he's got a 46,100 call.
18:55 And this is the current expiry that he's talking about.
19:02 What's the view, Rajesh, on this particular strike?
19:05 So I think 46,100 is difficult at this moment to again come in the profit for
19:12 this expiry because now we are slip below to 45,500.
19:16 That was the major put-based concentration.
19:18 That clearly shows that furthermore,
19:21 unwinding activity we can witness in the Bank Nifty as all large-cap
19:25 banking stocks are showing profit-taking since opening.
19:32 And looking at the near-term structure,
19:34 that clearly shows that for this expiry,
19:37 for the 6,100 strike, it's difficult to again come in the profit.
19:42 So I think if some premiums are there,
19:44 he can exit at this moment because looking at the near-term structure,
19:49 we believe that furthermore, pressure we can see towards 45,200 also.
19:54 The major supply zone, looking at the call concentration,
19:57 is now looking at around 45,600, 45,700.
20:02 These all strikes are attracting more call-writing activity.
20:05 So these are challenging level for any kind of pullback action in the near-term
20:09 for towards this expiry.
20:11 So there is significant pressure on account of HDFC Bank as well, Smriti.
20:15 Right, but that's kind of faded now.
20:18 We're seeing good earnings from a couple of other private banks.
20:22 Anyway, let's move on.
20:23 We have Faraz Khan who's talking about railway stocks.
20:26 Now, Vineet, we've already seen quite a run-up in railway stocks.
20:30 Some of them look expensive as well.
20:33 Would you suggest an entry into these stocks
20:35 and any specific stocks that you're constructive on?
20:39 No, I think as a fact, they've run up too far too fast.
20:43 And in order to digest them, like IRFC at 80, we thought 80, 85 levels,
20:49 we thought it was kind of richly valued.
20:52 And today it's double from there.
20:54 So I think we can see some substantial corrections coming in these stocks.
21:01 And we should just wait a while because it is a parabolic move
21:04 and you don't know when the bottom will be reached.
21:07 So it's just better to book your profits and sit on the sidelines.
21:13 Okay, speaking of railway, we've got RVNL as well,
21:17 which is down quite significantly today, right?
21:20 And a lot of these stocks, as you pointed out, have gained quite significantly.
21:25 We've got a viewer, Rakesh, who's tuned in from Delhi,
21:29 and he's asking about RVNL, which he bought at levels of 307,
21:33 and Shriram Properties as well, which he's bought at levels of 111,
21:37 as well as Bank of Maharashtra at levels of 36.
21:40 So very distinct choices that he's made.
21:44 Vineet, anything to add on RVNL and the other two stocks that I mentioned?
21:50 So RVNL, definitely, I'm not a buyer at these prices.
21:54 I think if he's bought on top, if he can take early losses,
21:58 then probably getting out of this stock would be advisable.
22:02 Bank of Maharashtra, we are very fairly constructive.
22:05 We think that it is one of the best managed PSU banks,
22:09 you know, with very, very strong fundamentals, low NPAs.
22:13 They've got 1,000 crores of excess provisioning, 25% growth rates,
22:17 and adequately capitalized.
22:19 So we think that the bank can run the course.
22:22 Its cost of funds is also not a challenge,
22:24 despite the other banks finding it difficult.
22:26 So I think this is top in the pecking order in the banking sector,
22:31 and he should continue to hold on to this.
22:33 And the third stock that you mentioned was?
22:36 Sriram Properties, I believe.
22:38 Yeah. So Sriram Properties is, I think he is in the money out here.
22:43 And while the street is very positive on this stock,
22:46 I was never that positive. I looked at it deeply.
22:49 And, you know, from 80 bucks, I had found it overvalued.
22:53 So I would have been wrong on this trade.
22:56 But I think if I were him, I would not be holding this stock.
22:59 All right. We have a question from Amit Rastogi,
23:02 and they're talking about Angel One.
23:04 We're seeing a little bit of downtick in the stock today
23:07 because it's trading ex-dividend.
23:09 They've declared a dividend of about 12.5 rupees, if I'm not wrong.
23:13 Vineet, what's your long-term buying range for this stock?
23:18 That's the question that Amit is asking.
23:20 I think 2,400 to 2,500 is where I would be comfortable buying this stock.
23:27 And Rajesh, would you have a buying range as well for the shorter term, maybe?
23:32 So on a short-term basis, this is the second consecutive week
23:38 where we are seeing supply pressure is there in the stock,
23:41 and the stock has corrected significantly in the last couple of trading sessions.
23:45 Looking at the near-term, short-term structure,
23:48 we knew that the next important support area in this down move
23:52 is towards the 2,950 or 2,900 kind of level.
23:55 So for trading perspective, one can wait for another 100-150 rupees downtick.
24:01 Then one can look to buy near 2,900 with stop-loss of 2,850.
24:06 Colgate-Palmolive is the next counter that we're looking at,
24:10 and let's in fact pull up the chart.
24:12 It's down about 2% or thereabouts.
24:14 We've got Shubham Bharadwaj from Sundarnagar, Himachal Pradesh, writing in.
24:19 He's bought 25 shares at 2,536, and it is above the current market price.
24:26 The question is, Vineeth, how did you look at the numbers?
24:29 Were they positive, and should you hold at this level?
24:32 So they were more or less in line with what we expected.
24:36 And I think you should continue to hold.
24:39 I'm a strong believer that the India rural growth story will pan out from the coming quarters.
24:44 And so if you bought this from a very short-term perspective,
24:48 then I think the technical view would be much more valid.
24:51 But if you got in from a fundamental point of view,
24:54 I think that you should hold on to this stock,
24:58 and we will see some good gains coming in in the coming couple of years.
25:02 All right, that's all the time we have today on this edition of Ask Profit.
25:07 Thank you, Vineeth and Rajesh, for joining us and for answering so many questions.
25:11 And viewers, we'll be back tomorrow, same time at 11.30 a.m.
25:15 But lots more coming up on NDTV Profit.
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