Nikki Haley's 'uphill battle' to win GOP nomination: 'She's really laid the groundwork for 2028'
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Transcript
00:00 Going to get a bit more analysis now from U.S. politics specialist Todd Belt, who joins me live from Washington.
00:05 Todd, thank you for taking the time to speak to us.
00:07 Great to be with you again. Thank you.
00:09 So tell me, what are your thoughts now, having seen how New Hampshire played out?
00:12 Does Nikki Haley still have a slim chance in some way?
00:17 That's a that's exactly what I would call it. It's slim.
00:20 There is a little glimmer of hope there.
00:23 Eleven and a half points is a loss.
00:26 It's not a huge loss.
00:28 Obviously, Donald Trump would have liked to put this to rest last night.
00:33 He talks as if he did, but he didn't.
00:35 Of course, we have South Carolina, which is the next one where Nikki Haley is really going to contest.
00:42 It's a month away.
00:44 She has time to regroup.
00:46 She has time to talk to her donors, but she needs to convince them that she can win in a state where,
00:53 as your reporter said, she's behind by 30 points already.
00:56 Right. And for many people, I think, you know, Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina,
01:01 in some ways, the vote there might be a referendum on her and her time as governor.
01:05 Yeah, and I think she's depending on that.
01:08 She's going to go back there and I predict that she's going to go back there and mount a really
01:13 strong ground game the way that she did in New Hampshire and get people out.
01:18 She has the support of Americans for Prosperity and they have a big network of volunteers.
01:22 So I think they're going to go down there in force and try to win this from the ground up.
01:26 While Donald Trump has his mega rallies and his ad buys and everything is going to
01:32 try to win it from the top down.
01:33 But it's going to be a real uphill battle because even Tim Scott, the senator who was running
01:39 against Donald Trump, has endorsed him and she nominated him to the Senate.
01:43 And so it's really it's going to be difficult because she she was popular,
01:48 but Donald Trump is more popular.
01:50 Indeed. And another big question, of course, is the money.
01:52 I mean, does she have enough money to stay in?
01:55 Right now, no.
01:58 I mean, she was going around saying that she's in this to win it and she's going to stay in
02:02 and she just made a four million dollar ad buy in South Carolina.
02:06 She didn't say four million.
02:07 She said she made an ad buy.
02:09 Four million is not a lot.
02:10 And it's going to be a drop in the bucket of what's going to be spent there.
02:13 I anticipate it's going to be close to about 50 million is going to be spent there.
02:18 She's going to need to raise a lot more money.
02:20 She has time to do it, though.
02:22 But turning around 30 points again, really tough.
02:25 Indeed. All right.
02:26 Let's say that Nikki Haley soon drops out of the race to Donald Trump's nominee
02:30 running against Joe Biden.
02:32 Is there any likelihood she could run as an independent?
02:35 You know, that is possible, but I just don't see her doing it.
02:41 She is really, really tied to the Republican Party and really made that her brand.
02:46 She represents sort of the traditional part of the Republican Party.
02:50 If you look at the exit polls, a lot of the traditional Republicans,
02:54 independents and people who think the party has gone too far on issues like abortion and
02:58 foreign policy are still with her.
03:00 I think it's safer to say that she's got a lot of volunteers and did OK in both Iowa and New
03:06 Hampshire. She's really laid the groundwork for 2028.
03:09 You're talking about these more moderate Republicans, and some people are saying that
03:13 Joe Biden is actually probably happy if he ends up facing Trump again in November, because
03:18 there's a chance those moderate Republicans might defect.
03:22 Do you think they would vote Democrat?
03:23 That's exactly right.
03:26 I think that there are a lot of Republicans.
03:28 Look, 43 percent of the New Hampshireites voted for Nikki Haley.
03:33 Now, of course, there was a lot of independents there that voted for him.
03:37 But if you ask them why they voted for is because he that she wasn't Trump.
03:41 He doesn't have the right temperament and he's he would be unfit for office.
03:45 The Biden campaign is just salivating at the opportunity to run against Donald Trump.
03:50 That makes it a choice election between the chaos of Trump's America and Biden's return
03:55 to normalcy.
03:57 Nikki Haley is sort of a wildcard.
03:58 They'd rather face Trump.
04:00 Right.
04:00 So here we are looking at what looks to be a rematch of Trump and Biden.
04:05 What could stop Trump now, if anything?
04:07 Could it be the court cases?
04:11 His health?
04:12 I think that's probably the only thing.
04:13 He will be 78 this summer.
04:15 We always talk about Biden's health because he doesn't wear it as well as Donald Trump
04:20 does.
04:21 Donald Trump much more energetic.
04:23 I don't think that our Constitution allows you to run and serve, even if you have been
04:28 convicted of a crime.
04:30 But it's the it's the type of crime, I think, that will really influence independent voters.
04:36 In our GW Politics poll, we found that voters were not as concerned about the the more civil
04:43 trials like the Stormy Daniels one.
04:46 But when it came to the Georgia one, where you hear him on tape asking for more votes,
04:50 that's the one that could really ding him with some of those moderate voters.
04:54 Indeed.
04:54 And we'll be keeping a close eye on that, of course, here on France 24 as those trials
04:58 happen.
04:58 Just to wrap up, Todd, before you go, are there any other wild cards you think that
05:02 could throw this whole thing off at this point?
05:03 I do.
05:06 There's a group called No Labels that is trying to get a Democrat and a Republican to run
05:10 together in what we call a unity ticket.
05:12 They're trying to get on the ballot in a number of different states.
05:14 These independent candidates usually don't win.
05:17 But what they do is they take votes away from the two other candidates.
05:21 And right now, that looks like that would be more from Biden than Donald Trump.
05:24 Interesting.
05:25 All right.
05:25 Thanks for that, Todd.
05:26 Todd Bell speaking to me there from Washington, D.C.
05:28 Thanks so much.
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