Pressure on Chelsea manager Mauricio Pochettino. Has he been unlucky with results, or is his plan for the team simply unworkable? FourFourTwo's Adam Clery examines English football's biggest conundrum.
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00:00 [DING]
00:02 Alright, so, okay, this is the XI that started against Everton.
00:05 I think anybody looking at this would say, "That's actually a pretty good team."
00:09 You've got solidity and intelligence at the back,
00:12 and Rhys James, who's really, really good.
00:14 You've got two of the most expensive central midfielders ever,
00:17 and up front, you've got like a mix of experience and potential and work rate,
00:23 and just, there's a lot, there's a lot good about this team.
00:26 But they went to Goodison Park, and they had more of the ball,
00:28 they had more attempts on goal, they controlled large parts of the match,
00:32 and still, for a seventh time this season, got beat.
00:36 Well, if we go right back to the very start of the season,
00:38 I think the consensus about Chelsea was that, yes, the results had been poor,
00:42 but the performances were actually quite good.
00:45 We even did a video on the channel looking at the underlying numbers
00:48 from those early performances, and the signs were very encouraging.
00:52 You can even see here in this graph that I have hastily and sloppily cobbled together.
00:56 If you're somebody who believes you can tell anything from the XG,
00:59 Chelsea were regularly, every single week, outscoring their opponent on XG,
01:03 and the highlights would always include really bad misses,
01:06 usually from Nicholas Jackson, but could be absolutely anybody.
01:09 So the narrative was clear.
01:11 They are playing well, they're having a lot of the ball,
01:13 their possession stats will put them on.
01:14 They're excellent as well, they're just not taking their chances.
01:17 Now, that is all still true to an extent.
01:20 If you look at the Everton game, they had loads of possession,
01:22 they had more attempts on goal, they had more attempts on target.
01:25 XG, if you're bothered, that was higher yet again.
01:28 But if you watch that game, you will just know that they never once looked in any danger
01:34 of actually winning that.
01:35 And that is because those stats, in particular, the whole XG and attempts stat,
01:40 is now becoming quite misleading.
01:42 I'll just, I'll show you what I mean, right?
01:44 So touches on the ball, right, that's a fairly easy thing to understand.
01:48 It's passes that are completed, it's you running with it,
01:50 it's how much control you have of the football.
01:53 In the defensive third of the pitch, Chelsea rank top in the entire Premier League
01:58 for the amount of touches they have had this season.
02:00 And that means that they are as comfortable and as confident and as well-drilled
02:04 at just knocking the ball around the back and retaining possession
02:06 as teams like Brighton or Tottenham,
02:08 two sides whose entire system is based around control in that area of the pitch.
02:13 Now, if we move it forward to the middle third of the pitch,
02:15 the total number of touches, there is a drop-off, yes, but only to fifth position.
02:20 So in terms of how comfortable they are moving the ball up the pitch
02:23 into the middle third, they are the equals of Arsenal at doing that.
02:26 Alright, so let's move it up to the attacking third now,
02:30 the business end of the pitch where all the magic has to happen,
02:32 and there is a drop-off, but only one position to sixth.
02:36 In terms of retaining the ball, of passing the ball, of carrying the ball
02:39 in your opponent's third, the hardest place to do that,
02:43 they are better than Brighton and better than Newcastle.
02:45 They do it almost as much as Liverpool do.
02:49 But let's do one more stat.
02:51 A key pass, okay, it's a really easy one to understand,
02:54 it is any pass of the ball that leads directly to a shot.
02:57 On this one, Chelsea drop from first, fifth and sixth to 13.
03:03 They go from posting the same kind of numbers as Brighton, as Arsenal
03:07 and as Liverpool, to posting the same sort of numbers as Bournemouth
03:11 and Crystal Palace and Brentford.
03:12 So what does that information actually tell us though?
03:15 Well, to put it really simply, it tells us that in terms of holding on to the ball,
03:18 to passing the ball, carrying the ball, building out from the back,
03:21 moving up through the pitch, 90% of the game of football,
03:24 Chelsea are really, really good.
03:27 But when it comes to turning that dominance, that possession,
03:30 that ball control into threat, into chances,
03:33 the last 10%, the hardest 10%,
03:36 they are exactly where they should be in the Premier League.
03:39 They are in lower mid-table.
03:40 But again, why is that?
03:42 Well, if there should have been one immediate takeaway from the Everton game,
03:45 it's that this does not look like a team that knows exactly
03:49 what it's supposed to be doing in the final third.
03:53 Like Pochettino seems to have finally settled on this 4-2-3-1,
03:56 except it's not even really a 4-2-3-1,
03:58 because Gallagher and Fernandes are both so all over the place
04:02 and covering so much ground.
04:03 It's kind of like a very weird, conservative 4-3-3.
04:07 I can just show you what I mean here.
04:08 This is their pass map from the Everton game,
04:10 which shows you like the average position they were making their passes from.
04:14 First of all, ignore Kukerea here.
04:17 He wasn't playing in the middle.
04:18 He just played obviously the first half on one side, the first half on the other.
04:20 So his average is going to be the middle.
04:22 Just look at Gallagher and Fernandes.
04:24 Like given that Gallagher here is supposed to be in a deep double pivot with Caicedo
04:28 and Fernandes is supposed to be at number 10, floating around the centre forward.
04:32 It's just not how that looks at all.
04:34 If we look at their individual pass maps, you can just see why this doesn't work at all.
04:38 Like this is Conor Gallagher, your nominal sitting midfield player,
04:42 who is absolutely everywhere across the course of a game.
04:46 And this is Enzo Fernandes, your creative attacking number 10,
04:49 who constantly drifts over to the left-hand side.
04:51 And just what should be leaping off this page at you as a Chelsea fan
04:55 is how few of these arrows point forward.
04:59 He so rarely is able to make an attacking pass in the final third.
05:04 In fact, honestly, if you just really squint at this,
05:06 I think there's one like around here,
05:08 which is sort of the only ball that goes directly forward into a dangerous area.
05:14 Do you see what I mean with those numbers before?
05:15 How they're really good at the back and really good in the middle
05:17 and actually really good at retaining the ball here.
05:20 But when it comes to just getting the killer pass, opening a team up,
05:24 they just really struggle to do it.
05:26 So problem number one, Enzo Fernandes, your number 10,
05:28 is brilliant at playing football, but is not really making any chances for you.
05:33 In fact, let's get rid of all these passes
05:35 and just replace it with the chances he created in that game.
05:38 [CRICKETS CHIRPING]
05:41 Oh, all right. OK, we'll move on.
05:42 Let's get back to Connor Gallagher, your sitting midfielder.
05:45 You'll notice he spends an awful lot of his time on the right-hand side here.
05:49 Why is that?
05:50 Well, because this is Cole Palmer's pass map, your right-hand side attacker.
05:54 You will see he drifts all the way over into the centre of the pitch,
05:57 very rarely goes down the byline,
05:59 tries to play all of his game in this pocket here.
06:01 And actually, if you remember, he did that pretty effectively.
06:04 He got two really good long-range efforts off against Jordan Pickford.
06:07 They were both on target.
06:09 But if we overlay all of Chelsea's shots on target in that game,
06:13 they're all just from outside the box.
06:15 They're all pretty much identical to that one from Palmer.
06:18 And if you remember as well, all the chances that were in the box,
06:21 that were a lot nearer the goal, they all missed.
06:23 They were all never likely to result in a goal.
06:26 They weren't good chances.
06:28 So again, what does that tell you?
06:29 Chelsea, lot of the ball, very good on it,
06:31 progressing up the pitch really, really nicely.
06:33 But get into the final third and don't know what to do.
06:37 So either they try and force a chance that's never going to go in,
06:40 or they just shoot from really far out.
06:42 And this is why, if you just rewind your brains a couple of minutes,
06:45 I said these stats about how they're playing are starting to get misleading.
06:49 Because yes, Chelsea again, did have a bigger XG than their opponents,
06:52 but it's just a cumulative score of having all these really, really poor chances.
06:58 They had 16 of them.
07:00 If they all score like 0.1 or 0.2,
07:03 it's going to look like they should have had a goal,
07:05 but they were never going to get a goal.
07:06 They just do not have a clear attacking identity.
07:10 Like Fernandes, your best creator, isn't able to find a way to create anything.
07:13 Palmer, your best attacker is coming in field to get into a dangerous area,
07:18 but then either has to do some brilliant bit of solo brilliance,
07:22 like he did against Man United, or just shoot and hope for the best.
07:25 And I mean, part of the reason he comes in field is so he can get Rhys James up this side
07:29 for his crossing and his direct running and his creativity.
07:32 And they can't get him fit, like he hasn't finished 90 minutes once this season.
07:38 And every single week you watch Chelsea and it becomes harder and harder to figure out what it is
07:42 they're even being told to do.
07:44 Like in some games, you'll see them sit really deep and try and hit teams on the counter
07:47 with like Mudrick and Sterling, and they've created quite a high number of chances doing that,
07:52 but they've scored only like three because they're not good chances.
07:56 They're in like the top six or seven for the number of crosses into the box this season,
08:01 but they're also rock bottom for crossing accuracy.
08:04 So again, good with the buildup, they can get into those positions, they can go and do that.
08:08 But the fact that nobody can get on the end of them sort of shows it's not really the plan.
08:13 They can't create good chances that way.
08:15 And sometimes you'll see them press the opposition and push right the way up
08:18 and look like they've got the drive and the intensity to be that kind of team.
08:22 And indeed, look, they rank third in the league for the total number of high turnovers.
08:27 That can be a way to play, that can be a system.
08:29 But where do they rank for goals scored from high turnovers?
08:33 Pretty much right at the bottom again, because it's not something they've clearly worked on.
08:38 It's not the plan. It's just something they're doing.
08:42 And yes, by the way, you did just see that Man United were at the very top
08:45 and then the very bottom of that particular staff, but we will talk about them another day.
08:49 And the thing is as well, if you go back through their fixtures
08:51 and look at where their good performances were and where their bad performances were,
08:55 that paints a picture itself.
08:57 Like I thought they were brilliant against Manchester City.
08:59 They were really good against Spurs even before the sendings off.
09:02 But those are quite open games against good opponents who will let you play
09:06 and individual quality can shine through much better.
09:09 But they're more disappointing results like they couldn't score against Nottingham Forest.
09:13 They couldn't score against Bournemouth.
09:15 They couldn't score against Brentford.
09:16 They couldn't score against Everton.
09:18 What do all these teams have in common?
09:20 They're nice and tight and compact and make it difficult for you.
09:23 And you have to, as a team, have ways of breaking that down.
09:27 They haven't got that.
09:28 But the real, real problem here is that these results are already
09:31 and justifiably putting pressure on Mauricio Pochettino.
09:35 When you've seen the almost instant impact Emery's had at Villa,
09:39 that Postacoglou's had at Tottenham,
09:40 it's not unreasonable to expect the results to have been better,
09:43 but Chelsea are in quite a unique position compared to pretty much every other club.
09:49 They have the youngest squad in the entire Premier League.
09:52 Like the average age of their starting 11s this season is younger than any other team.
09:57 All of their transfers in the summer, by design, were players under 25.
10:02 And even the bulk of those were barely above 20.
10:05 And when you sign younger, less experienced players,
10:08 it normally, not always, but normally takes more time for them to settle into new surroundings.
10:14 They've got to play with new teammates, with a new manager, in a new system.
10:17 Some of them in a new league, in a new country.
10:20 There's a lot to consider here.
10:22 And if you saw that youngest average age graph before and spotted that Arsenal were in 2,
10:26 you'd be like, "Aha! But Arsenal have a young team and they're doing well.
10:29 Look at how settled most of their young players are."
10:32 But Kai Osaka's like 9 or something, but he's been at Arsenal his entire career
10:36 and has 200 professional games under his belt at this point.
10:40 Like, Martinelli is young as well, but he made his debut back in 2019.
10:44 They signed Saliba that same year, and yes, he's been out on loan and stuff,
10:48 but he came back with loads of experience.
10:51 But just think about it this way, OK?
10:53 Declan Rice, Moses Caicedo, the two defensive midfielders everybody was after this summer,
10:58 and they went for pretty much the same amount of money.
11:00 Declan Rice has settled instantly. Moses Caicedo looks to be having a much harder time of it.
11:04 Now, I wonder why that could be.
11:06 Is it because Rice is really good and Caicedo is absolutely rubbish?
11:09 Or is it possibly that Rice has 250 games at the very top level with West Ham under his belt,
11:16 and Caicedo has played 45 times in the Premier League for Brighton?
11:20 Like, just trust me, OK? This is honestly a good selection of players.
11:24 It's not a good team yet, but it is a good selection of players.
11:28 The one thing it's lacking is experience.
11:31 Now, whether that means they go out in January and they buy some older players
11:34 who can maybe slot in a bit better, allow the other ones sort of the space and the room to develop,
11:39 or they just trust the process and they stick with this squad
11:42 and they just see where it ends up at the end of the season, I don't know.
11:46 But that's honestly all it's lacking.
11:49 Like, Nicholas Jackson is 22 and out of one season up front for Villarreal.
11:54 Like, he will get there as a centre forward, just not the next four games.
11:59 Anyway, that's just what I think, so let us know what you make of it all in the comments below.
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12:20 In the meantime, though, you can get me on Twitter @adampeary,
12:22 C-L-E-O-I, 442, so it's in the corner of the video.
12:25 And Maurizio, if you are watching, my good man, hang in there, baby.
12:32 It'll be fine.
12:33 Goodbye.