- #Sensex, #Nifty trade in red
- #LaurusLabs, #TechMahindra, #BajajAuto
- Volume buzzers
Niraj Shah and Alex Mathew dissect key trends of the day on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
- #LaurusLabs, #TechMahindra, #BajajAuto
- Volume buzzers
Niraj Shah and Alex Mathew dissect key trends of the day on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:01:30 All right.
00:01:43 Thanks for tuning into India Market Close right here
00:01:45 on NDTV Profit.
00:01:46 Let's pull up the markets and show you how the day has been.
00:01:51 So about 3/4 of a percent in the red,
00:01:54 but the intraday will come up on your screen here.
00:01:57 And you will see that after a start, which was flattish,
00:02:02 we largely have had this negative bias.
00:02:04 You're sure there were some bounces in a tight range,
00:02:07 but we are in on around the day's low.
00:02:09 So currently, at 21280, the day's low is 21247.
00:02:13 So in and around that range.
00:02:14 And let's drag down by IT, as well as, to an extent,
00:02:18 banking as well.
00:02:19 So that's the key thing.
00:02:20 Now, banking is down about a percent, because HDFC Bank
00:02:24 and some others are putting that stress on the banking index.
00:02:27 And the mid-caps and the small caps-- small cap index
00:02:29 started off half a percent higher.
00:02:32 But you can see, distinctly see, that what's
00:02:34 happening at the mid-cap, or other
00:02:36 at the large cap end of the market,
00:02:38 is also now impacting the broader end of the spectrum.
00:02:40 So about 1% or 400 points lower for the mid-cap 100.
00:02:44 And that is trading at the low point of the day.
00:02:46 The small cap index, too, from being half a percent
00:02:49 to slightly more higher, has come off a little bit in trade.
00:02:52 Alex will throw a lot more light on the broader
00:02:54 end of the spectrum.
00:02:55 But I just want to mark the heat map
00:02:57 and show you what stocks are moving and what's not.
00:02:59 A lot of red, very little green.
00:03:02 We start with the green.
00:03:03 Commentary from Bajaj Auto and more.
00:03:06 So about 4.47%, some gains for NTPC and Coal India.
00:03:10 So they are doing OK.
00:03:12 Aside of that, nothing, almost nothing to write home about.
00:03:16 On the losing side, Tech Mahindra leading the charge lower,
00:03:19 6.5%.
00:03:20 Cipla giving up some of the gains that it had post its results.
00:03:26 So that is down.
00:03:27 SBI Life reacting to numbers, down about 2.7%.
00:03:30 And lastly, Tech Mahindra has also impacted the mood
00:03:33 on some of the other IT names.
00:03:35 So LTI, TCS, Infosys, et cetera.
00:03:37 All of these have gone off.
00:03:39 Nifty IT arguably is one key culprit in the session today.
00:03:42 But the broader end of the spectrum,
00:03:44 small caps punctuated by gains,
00:03:46 but a lot of individual movers based on news, Alex.
00:03:49 Yeah, certainly, Neeraj.
00:03:50 In fact, a few names stood out from the broader end.
00:03:53 You have the likes of Balkrishna Industries.
00:03:56 And it's an interesting story because on the earnings front,
00:03:59 it actually looked quite reasonable.
00:04:02 You have the margins that have doubled, they've expanded.
00:04:05 And this is primarily on account of the expenses side,
00:04:08 which has been sanguine for the company.
00:04:11 You've had a decrease in other expenses as well as freight
00:04:14 and forwarding charges that reduced.
00:04:16 The margins doubled to over 20% or practically doubled.
00:04:21 So that's one stock that is probably seeing
00:04:23 a little bit of profit taking.
00:04:25 You have Loris Laboratories,
00:04:26 which we have spoken about earlier on in the day as well.
00:04:30 In fact, Neeraj spoke with the management of the company
00:04:33 and they've given quite an ambitious target
00:04:35 for an expansion of EBITDA margin
00:04:38 as well as an increase in revenue.
00:04:40 And therefore, profit expansion as well.
00:04:43 But seemingly, the street is not too enthused
00:04:46 and is not expecting that the company will find it easy
00:04:51 to hit those targets that have been set by the management.
00:04:54 20% EBITDA margins, by the way,
00:04:56 for a company that has recorded EBITDA margins of close to 15%
00:05:00 for three quarters in a row.
00:05:02 Aarthi Drugs was also a bit of an underperformer.
00:05:05 It continues to do so.
00:05:07 It's down about 6% in trade today.
00:05:09 The pat was more or less flat,
00:05:10 but the top line has declined about 9%.
00:05:13 Lower realisation seemed to be a bit of a culprit
00:05:16 for this company for the third quarter.
00:05:18 And then you have a couple of volume buzzers.
00:05:21 So you have Wrights that is outperforming and how.
00:05:24 It's a stock that is gaining 16+%
00:05:27 by far and away the biggest gainer
00:05:29 from the broader end of the spectrum as well.
00:05:32 This is on higher volumes.
00:05:33 There are a few large trades that have occurred in this counter,
00:05:37 but by and large, this is higher volumes.
00:05:40 And you have one more stock that is also buzzing
00:05:42 on the back of higher volumes, and that is Metro Brand,
00:05:45 which is up quite considerably today, over 10%.
00:05:48 And just to give you a sense of the volume picture,
00:05:51 it is 8 times the 30-day average.
00:05:55 So quite a bit of interest and volume playing
00:05:57 into this particular counter, Neeraj.
00:06:00 Okay, so that's the set of stocks.
00:06:02 And as we speak, by the way,
00:06:04 Sinjin numbers on your screen as well,
00:06:06 consolidated net profit at 111 versus 109.
00:06:09 So flattish, flattish performance on the bottom line,
00:06:13 the revenue front as well, just about 8.6%,
00:06:16 suffice to say from the standards that Sinjin has set.
00:06:19 Comes off as a quarter which isn't exactly the strongest,
00:06:22 but I will either wait for the internals to figure out
00:06:25 whether it's actually a bad quarter, a weak quarter,
00:06:28 or kind of goes in line with what was anticipated.
00:06:33 So no big shakes there on Sinjin, you have to argue.
00:06:37 Mr. G. Chokalingam, founder and MD at Economics Research,
00:06:40 Equinomics Research joins us right now on the show.
00:06:42 Mr. Chokalingam, thanks so much for taking the time out.
00:06:44 Neeraj here, good afternoon.
00:06:46 Can I start off with the two numbers
00:06:49 that are flashing on our screens first,
00:06:51 before we talk about the markets at large?
00:06:53 First is Sinjin, about an 8% revenue growth,
00:06:56 flattish, absolutely flattish pat performance
00:06:59 for a business that trades at the valuation that it trades at.
00:07:02 Is this okay in the quarter?
00:07:04 Did you have any estimates in mind with regards to Sinjin?
00:07:09 In fact, we have a coverage.
00:07:12 I didn't do any expectation for December quarter,
00:07:16 but certainly it is disappointing,
00:07:19 but I would still suggest not to panic and sell the stock,
00:07:23 one should continue to have exposure to the stock,
00:07:26 because I find it very difficult to get many good mid-cap
00:07:33 and small-cap stocks with comfortable valuation.
00:07:36 So from that perspective, Sinjin is still buy for me,
00:07:40 because a lot of cash on the book,
00:07:43 and as the rupee is continuously depreciating over the years,
00:07:47 Sinjin's R&D services meant for the exports
00:07:49 would do very well in the medium to long term.
00:07:52 Very rarely post this kind of disappointing bottom line,
00:07:57 stagnating bottom line on a quarterly basis,
00:08:00 but otherwise it continues to maintain significant growth,
00:08:03 and therefore I would suggest to hold on.
00:08:06 I mean, if there is any small decline also,
00:08:09 one can buy this stock aggressively.
00:08:11 Another important fact is that from the 52-week high,
00:08:14 R&D has corrected quite significantly.
00:08:17 So therefore I would suggest to hold and buy on decline.
00:08:20 Got it. The other one, Mr. Chokalingam, is SBI Life.
00:08:24 It was anticipated and it's come out with its numbers,
00:08:27 and the reaction to the numbers hasn't been the strongest.
00:08:32 I mean, relative to what was anticipated,
00:08:34 it just marginally missed estimates on a couple of line items, has SBI Life.
00:08:39 Do you look at life insurance companies,
00:08:42 and do you have any favorable view on SBI Life,
00:08:44 or is it better to avoid that space and the stock based on these results?
00:08:48 We have a coverage on SBI Life.
00:08:51 We prefer SBI Life to SBI, but then still,
00:08:54 I wouldn't suggest selling off SBI Life.
00:08:57 Again, life insurance companies, because of their accounting methodology
00:09:01 and the income stream from various sources and provisions they make,
00:09:05 I believe one should not worry at all about the quarterly performance
00:09:09 for insurance companies, particularly the size of this time.
00:09:13 It's very common, you know, because that income stream is very complex
00:09:17 and there are many types of income stream,
00:09:20 and also they make a lot of provisions and different categories.
00:09:24 Time like this, I would suggest strongly that hold on to SBI Life also,
00:09:28 because I am a little nervous on a small and mid-cap space,
00:09:32 and I would prefer, you know,
00:09:35 tilting heavily towards this kind of large cap stock,
00:09:37 because life insurance business is a growing business,
00:09:41 and it is likely to remain as a growing sector at this point,
00:09:45 next 5 to 10 years consistently.
00:09:48 So definitely SBI Life would be one of the best stocks to hold on.
00:09:52 Okay, Mr. Chokalingam, Alex joining in as well.
00:09:55 While we are on the topic of life insurance,
00:09:57 and we have just talked about SBI Life,
00:09:59 I just want to get your view on Life Insurance Corporation of India as well,
00:10:04 because it's still trading above 900,
00:10:07 and it's made quite a bit of a comeback,
00:10:09 if you can call it that, over the last month and a half, two months.
00:10:12 In fact, since several announcements came in towards the end of last year,
00:10:18 the question right now is, would you buy it at this juncture?
00:10:21 Last one month, it's gained about 13.5%.
00:10:24 So you've spoken about holding on to SBI Life,
00:10:26 but what about those that have subscribed to the IPO of Life Insurance Corporation of India,
00:10:31 are now being rewarded for their patience, would they hold on?
00:10:35 I would prefer HGFC Life or SBI Life to LIC,
00:10:42 because we saw how difficult it is to hold on to the leadership position in various businesses,
00:10:48 whether it is automobile or insurance.
00:10:51 It's going to be very tough to hold on,
00:10:54 as market structure has changed, so many private players have come into this insurance business.
00:10:59 I would prefer private players who are more aggressive than the LIC.
00:11:06 Therefore, yes, if somebody is holding, they may hold on,
00:11:10 because retail float is very low for LIC,
00:11:13 and there is a lot of rally and passion for PSU stocks.
00:11:19 So as long as this rally continues, one can hold,
00:11:21 but anytime you see a sense of the PSU stock correcting,
00:11:25 then one should exit quickly from LIC.
00:11:29 Okay, that's as far as LIC goes as well.
00:11:34 Now, to the star performers of the day,
00:11:36 and we'll get in a piece on the key volume buzzers,
00:11:41 but I'm sure that Bajaj Auto features in the list of stocks which have had a good price and volume action.
00:11:47 The stock has done really well, post the commentary from the management, up 4%.
00:11:51 And we've seen the brokerage notes this morning talking about the export potential at TVS, Bajaj Auto,
00:11:56 and how those have done.
00:11:58 And I think it's interesting to get Mr. Chokalingam's view on what he's made of Bajaj Auto.
00:12:02 And what should one do, Mr. Chokalingam, now that there's a bit of a rally behind us?
00:12:08 Yeah, definitely.
00:12:10 And particularly for Bajaj Auto, you know, their export share is so substantial,
00:12:15 and export of two-wheeler for the industry as a whole has been in trouble in the current financial era.
00:12:22 So Bajaj Auto has seen a good rally also.
00:12:25 And this is a unique player, having heavy dependence on exports.
00:12:29 I would prefer, you know, selling Bajaj Auto and buying stocks like EuroMotorCorp,
00:12:34 or for the decline, TVS Motor.
00:12:37 Both are making steady progress in the EV two-wheelers.
00:12:41 Interesting.
00:12:43 Any thoughts on the buyback then?
00:12:46 If you are a holder, should you try and tender your shares?
00:12:51 Certainly, yes, because the premium is so high compared to market price.
00:12:58 However, you know, it is not likely to make any big benefit for the shareholder,
00:13:03 because if my memory is right, 1.4% of the paid-up capital is being bought back.
00:13:09 So, you know, ultimately, it doesn't make a big impact for investors' wealth.
00:13:15 Yes, if the management does it regularly every year, in the long term, it makes a positive impact,
00:13:21 this kind of buyback, but otherwise, to a medium term, there is no impact at all.
00:13:27 Therefore, one should surrender, you know, whatever they are eligible.
00:13:31 One of the stocks that is underperforming from the large-cap space is Tech Mahindra.
00:13:36 We pointed that out a little bit earlier.
00:13:38 And it's really leading the IT index as a whole down as well, down about 6.4%, 6.5%.
00:13:45 It's missed on a couple of line items.
00:13:49 The net profit has missed a pretty big way.
00:13:53 You also have the top line that is coming about 13,000 crores.
00:13:57 That's more or less in line, but the margins have also underperformed, right?
00:14:01 The question is, Mr. Chokalingam, that initial thought of a turnaround in the IT space
00:14:07 and at least bottoming out of the downturn in the earnings, is that call a little too early?
00:14:15 Do we wait?
00:14:17 And for those people that were betting on it after that initial rally that took place,
00:14:22 how do they react right now?
00:14:24 The message is very clear as far as the large IT cap stocks are concerned.
00:14:28 As I understood what you meant, suddenly there was a spurt.
00:14:33 It is mainly because of some perception management.
00:14:36 I think the perception became very positive on the eve of results.
00:14:40 But the fact is that this industry, large players, or for industry as a whole,
00:14:45 the export of IT services in dollar term has been growing at the poor single digit of around 3% to 5%,
00:14:51 not only in this quarter, even for the last three, four years.
00:14:55 So it was surprising that suddenly the perception, positive perception played out and stocks moved up.
00:14:59 But now, the rupee is steady at 83, not depreciating.
00:15:04 And with India's growth being so strong, rupee may not immediately depreciate.
00:15:09 That would be negative.
00:15:10 And second, even in rupee terms, some of the players have posted a deep growth,
00:15:14 which is very rare in the Indian IT services business.
00:15:17 Even when the dollar term, the export grows at 2% to 4%,
00:15:22 they used to post double-declined growth in the revenue.
00:15:24 But for example, Infosys has posted 7% decline in revenue in rupee term on year-on-year basis,
00:15:30 which is a little bit of a fork in.
00:15:32 Nothing to blame Infosys, that is the structure of the IT industry today.
00:15:36 So therefore, I would say that one can sell Tech Marita because surprisingly,
00:15:42 it has fallen only 6%, but the fall in the year-on-year profit has been very steep.
00:15:47 So I believe one can sell and in fact, if you don't want to re-invest,
00:15:51 you can at least put that money in the Bank FD.
00:15:54 Okay. You know the stock that is really buzzing in trade before Anushi talks about the buzzers,
00:16:03 maybe she will also talk about Rites. It is now up 19%.
00:16:07 Rites has gone berserk. Remember, amongst other things, Rites has a subsidiary,
00:16:14 which is one of the foremost consultants into railways going green.
00:16:22 And I think that could be a big trigger. I don't know if that is, I mean,
00:16:26 there are some large trades that have probably happened here too.
00:16:29 The stock is doing really well. Anushi Johnson to talk about the key volume buzzers today.
00:16:33 Anushi, is Rites a part of your list?
00:16:34 Yes, absolutely. Rites do make the part of our list.
00:16:37 The volume with this one is about seven times its 30-day average
00:16:41 and the stock has shown about an intraday high of about 18%.
00:16:45 This was on the back of the large trades that you mentioned
00:16:48 about 0.1% of equity changing hands in today's session.
00:16:52 Apart from that, even if you look at the other stocks in the category,
00:16:55 the PSU stocks like ADA was also about 5% up.
00:16:59 But again, if you are to consider the top volume buzzer for today,
00:17:03 it is Loris Labs on the back of a disappointing set of Q3 results
00:17:08 with its intraday low of about 10% and its volumes up about 10 times its 30-day average.
00:17:15 Next on the list is Metro Brands Limited with a keen interest over here
00:17:19 with its volumes buzzing at about 8 times and the stock also seeing an intraday high of about 19%.
00:17:26 There are no fundamental triggers as to what such so we have to look for more such updates.
00:17:31 Next on the list is Technocraft Industries, which is now 10% up,
00:17:35 erasing off the 17% intraday high it had marked earlier in the day.
00:17:42 And lastly, we also have Grinwell Norton, in which the volumes are buzzing about 7 times its 30-day average
00:17:50 and the stock did see about 8% of intraday high.
00:17:54 Interesting. And couple of stocks from that list, Anushi,
00:17:58 is what we were talking about earlier as well from the broader markets.
00:18:00 Those are the ones that are doing well. Thanks so much for bringing us those.
00:18:04 Nifty 50 currently trading just about 25 points off the low point of the day
00:18:08 and we'll bring you more stock-specific conversations.
00:18:11 We have to slip into a very quick break. Be back before you know it.
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00:22:56 - All right, there are some news bits out there on Syngene.
00:23:08 The company's cut its annual guidance
00:23:11 from teens to lower double digits,
00:23:15 which means it's 10, 11, or 12%,
00:23:17 and lower than the mid-teens that they had spoken about.
00:23:21 As a result of Syngene has come off a little bit,
00:23:24 bear that in mind.
00:23:26 Now we have two things.
00:23:29 My colleague Varsha is also waiting
00:23:30 with the stock of the day,
00:23:31 and we also have Samit Chauhan,
00:23:32 Head of Research, Technical and Derivatives
00:23:34 at Angel Broking.
00:23:35 Let me first get in Samit to talk about his thoughts
00:23:40 on how is he looking at the derivative position
00:23:43 on a crucial day.
00:23:44 Samit, good having you.
00:23:45 It's been a while that we've spoken.
00:23:46 Thanks for taking the time out.
00:23:47 Neeraj, how have you viewed the trading day
00:23:50 or albeit the trading week,
00:23:51 and what kind of cues does this give for next week?
00:23:54 - Good afternoon, Neeraj.
00:23:57 Yes, thanks for having me on your show after a long time.
00:24:00 See, as far as positioning is concerned,
00:24:02 FIIs have been selling in equities.
00:24:05 If you see, till yesterday,
00:24:07 to the tune of nearly 26,000 in cash market.
00:24:12 So November and December month was fabulous.
00:24:16 We saw FIIs turning buyers also,
00:24:19 and the FIIs long short ratio
00:24:23 at the start of the November series was somewhere around 11%.
00:24:26 It rose to nearly 70, 75%.
00:24:29 So clearly in last couple of months,
00:24:33 we witnessed a massive rally in the market,
00:24:35 broader market performed well.
00:24:38 But in last couple of weeks,
00:24:40 the kind of development that we witnessed
00:24:43 in the banking outlets,
00:24:44 specifically private banking giant like HDFC Bank.
00:24:48 So all these developments certainly does not bode well.
00:24:52 The entire banking space contributes nearly 35%
00:24:55 of the benchmark indexes we're taking.
00:24:58 So overall, if you see,
00:25:00 we are seeing massive underperformance
00:25:03 from the banking space now.
00:25:05 And from here on,
00:25:06 there are no clear signs of revival as such.
00:25:09 So I would first comment on Bank Nifty,
00:25:12 46,046,500 seems to be a very strong resistance,
00:25:16 and we'll not be surprised to see
00:25:18 Bank Nifty sliding below 44,000 in coming days also.
00:25:22 So obviously, Nifty has to bite the bullet,
00:25:25 and you will see even Nifty sliding below 21,000
00:25:29 in the coming session.
00:25:31 So overall, we are not that up there on the market,
00:25:35 at least with a short term perspective.
00:25:37 So on the higher side for Nifty,
00:25:39 21,650, 21,750 would act as a sturdy wall.
00:25:43 And soon we would expect Nifty
00:25:45 to enter the sub 21,000 territory,
00:25:47 and then probably the important levels
00:25:50 to work out for beyond 20,800, 20,700.
00:25:53 - Okay, so watch out for that move below 21,000
00:25:58 for the Nifty 50.
00:26:00 Sameeth, hi, Alex here.
00:26:02 Let's talk about Loris Laboratories as well, right?
00:26:05 So this is a company that has posted skew three numbers.
00:26:08 It's a bit of a disappointment
00:26:11 on the key fundamental numbers there.
00:26:14 And there is a very ambitious target
00:26:17 that the company's management has laid out.
00:26:20 Let's talk about some of those key numbers.
00:26:22 To give us some of those highlights
00:26:23 and break down the numbers for you, Varsha is joining in.
00:26:26 Varsha, what can you tell us
00:26:27 about both what the management has said
00:26:29 and also what the numbers say?
00:26:31 - So if you see, Loris Lab has a entry low of 10%
00:26:35 on back of weak Q3 numbers,
00:26:37 where profit missed estimates.
00:26:40 So there was a stress in API business
00:26:42 and CDMO synthesis lead to weakness in the quarter.
00:26:46 Also in the base quarter,
00:26:47 there was strong CDMO business and API revenues.
00:26:49 And remember, API revenues contributes
00:26:51 nearly half of the overall top line.
00:26:53 EBITDA margins were compressed
00:26:55 due to higher spends on growth prospects.
00:26:58 Now, if you see the animal health projects,
00:27:01 so management has said that the commercialization
00:27:03 of animal health project will be delayed
00:27:06 by a couple of quarters.
00:27:08 Also, there was this report by Citi on Loris Lab
00:27:11 that it maintains sell.
00:27:13 Well, according to the brokerage firm,
00:27:15 valuations and execution remains key concerns.
00:27:19 And it cut its FY24-26 EBITDA by 9 to 11%.
00:27:24 - Right.
00:27:25 We also had Neeraj speak with the management earlier today.
00:27:29 Let's listen into a small slice of that conversation.
00:27:32 - We have two options, Neeraj.
00:27:37 See, don't invest in opportunities
00:27:40 where the company will do significantly well in the future.
00:27:44 If we decide not to invest for next five, six quarters,
00:27:50 we can determine it.
00:27:52 Is that the right thing for the company?
00:27:54 When the entire world is looking at diversification,
00:27:59 when they look at diversification,
00:28:01 they have to see the scale
00:28:04 for them to have confidence in blue business.
00:28:06 So we have taken a judicious call
00:28:10 to invest and secure future,
00:28:12 although our current is a little bit tight.
00:28:15 And we are very conscious and judicious in our investment.
00:28:19 As you have seen, our animal health,
00:28:21 we are investing close to 300 crores.
00:28:23 We are again investing another 50, 60 crores
00:28:26 to build one more block.
00:28:28 That is based on a long-term contract.
00:28:31 We just validated one product there,
00:28:33 and we are validating another product as we speak.
00:28:36 So the validations in that animal health facility
00:28:39 will be completed by March, April, 2026.
00:28:44 That is the kind of plan we have in place
00:28:47 for many initiatives.
00:28:49 Apart from Capex, we're only talking about Capex,
00:28:52 but we also invested 450 crores
00:28:55 in non-Capex-related investment aspects.
00:28:58 We invested 300 crores in LarisBio in the equity,
00:29:01 and about 120 crores in Immunitech,
00:29:05 and another significant money in licensing patents
00:29:08 from Antifa.
00:29:10 These investments are very, very good
00:29:13 for the organization in the medium to long term.
00:29:16 - This question around the lower return ratios,
00:29:18 do they stay like this for the foreseeable future
00:29:22 until the pickup happens,
00:29:23 or do you expect a pickup, say, in quarter four
00:29:25 or quarter one or quarter two?
00:29:27 Or that is wrong to expect right now?
00:29:29 - The pickup will start from Q4,
00:29:31 and we expect that will continue.
00:29:34 - All right.
00:29:35 So that was the management of Laris.
00:29:37 The stock is underperforming in trade today,
00:29:39 and if you look at the last month,
00:29:40 it's not had the best time of it.
00:29:42 It's down about 9% or thereabouts.
00:29:44 But if I still zoom out,
00:29:46 and I look at the six-month time frame,
00:29:48 the stock is still up, maybe less than 10%,
00:29:51 but it's still gaining ground.
00:29:53 The question, Samit, is for somebody
00:29:55 that's holding onto this,
00:29:56 and maybe also on the shorter-term time frames,
00:30:00 what would the strategy be if you're looking chartically?
00:30:05 - See, with today's massive gap down
00:30:08 along with humongous volumes,
00:30:10 so it clearly suggests that the overall trend
00:30:13 for this particular counter in the near term
00:30:16 remains negative, and at higher level,
00:30:18 this stock is likely to face some selling pressure.
00:30:21 Now, there's a key support that is placed around 348, 351.
00:30:25 This stock's right below 348.
00:30:28 You could see a continuation of this weakness.
00:30:31 So at any bounce, we would suggest exiting this particular counter
00:30:36 on the highest at 420.
00:30:38 These are the next levels to work towards.
00:30:40 - A fair point.
00:30:42 So I take your point on your expectation
00:30:45 of there being a little bit of consolidation
00:30:48 and a move lower for the benchmark,
00:30:49 but in this current scenario and this market,
00:30:52 what are your key picks at this juncture, Samit?
00:30:59 - We would remain slightly on the cautious side,
00:31:02 and hence, we would have a couple of ideas
00:31:04 that would be on the bearish side.
00:31:06 So since the volatility is slightly on the higher side,
00:31:10 we would recommend trading through options.
00:31:13 So we are suggesting two put options in these stocks,
00:31:16 first one being Jubilee Foodworks.
00:31:18 This stock has been consolidating up late,
00:31:20 and today, it has reached its important support level.
00:31:23 So, Fabe Series 500 put option,
00:31:26 which is trading around $16,
00:31:29 one can buy at current level.
00:31:31 Stop loss would be around 11,
00:31:32 and target for this option would be around 26 to 29.
00:31:36 Apart from this, L&T, which has been a rank out performance
00:31:40 over the last two to three months,
00:31:43 but at higher level,
00:31:43 we are seeing some expansion in this counter,
00:31:46 and hence, L&T, Fabe Series,
00:31:49 3500 put option can be bought at current level.
00:31:52 Stop would be around 34,
00:31:54 and target would be around 19.
00:31:56 - All right.
00:31:57 Sameet, Mr. Chokalingam, do stay with us,
00:32:00 and viewers, you too do stay with us.
00:32:02 We'll be back after this very quick break.
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00:37:46 - Welcome back.
00:38:02 Let's take a look at the benchmark Nifty 50
00:38:05 and if we can pull up the intraday chart,
00:38:07 you will see that there's just a tad bit of a pullback
00:38:10 from the low point of the day.
00:38:11 It's now trading with cuts of about half a percent
00:38:14 and in fact, let's also pull up the key contributors.
00:38:17 So just to get a sense of what is moving the benchmark
00:38:20 as things stand right now,
00:38:22 on the losing end of course you have HDFC Bank
00:38:24 but a few other banking names
00:38:27 are moving to the top of the list.
00:38:28 ICICI contributing just a tad bit
00:38:30 and Reliance Industries with gains of about half a percent
00:38:33 contributing about 10 points.
00:38:35 Let's see if that holds or in fact,
00:38:37 if we move even higher towards the end of the session.
00:38:40 But let's talk about HDFC Bank
00:38:41 because it has lost ground today as well
00:38:44 despite a bit of a pullback yesterday
00:38:47 and we were incidentally talking about this at the open.
00:38:50 In fact, before the start of trade
00:38:52 about certain information that came out,
00:38:54 source-based information that came out
00:38:56 that our banking editor picked up
00:38:58 that spoke about the fact that HDFC Bank
00:39:00 is going to look to sell certain loans
00:39:03 in order to correct certain skews,
00:39:08 if you can call it that, in the loan to deposit ratio
00:39:11 as a result of the merger with HDFC.
00:39:14 This is something that was spoken about
00:39:16 over a period of time and deposit growth
00:39:18 really has been a bit of a question mark about HDFC Bank.
00:39:22 Seemingly, the street has not necessarily
00:39:25 bought into that yet.
00:39:27 Let's see if that changes in the near term
00:39:29 and in fact, I'm very curious about
00:39:31 what Mr. Chokalingam has to say
00:39:33 about the action in HDFC Bank
00:39:35 over the last few trading sessions.
00:39:38 Mr. Chokalingam, would you be a buyer of this juncture
00:39:40 if you're holding?
00:39:41 Would you continue to hold?
00:39:42 What is your view of all of the developments?
00:39:45 - Yeah, certainly.
00:39:46 We have a white call and after this fall,
00:39:48 we reiterated once again by the problem with HDFC Bank
00:39:52 is the business parameters slightly,
00:39:55 they have come down in their performance.
00:39:59 No doubt about it, but the punishment method
00:40:00 of the stock is too heavy.
00:40:02 The bank which used to trade
00:40:05 up to more than 400, 400 times price to put value
00:40:08 has seen already a tremendous contraction
00:40:10 of the valuation multiple,
00:40:12 but still it is falling because of two reasons.
00:40:14 FIs have been selling off late in the large cap segment
00:40:18 and the new breed of retail investors.
00:40:21 In my estimate, around 10 crore investors
00:40:23 are coming to the market
00:40:24 for the first time in the last four years.
00:40:26 I mean, they are focusing only on small and mid cap.
00:40:29 In my estimate, 90, 95% of the purchases
00:40:32 are concentrated in small and mid cap.
00:40:34 So eventually there is no taker
00:40:36 for particularly large cap stock
00:40:38 which are trading in four digit or five digit.
00:40:40 So that is a big drawback,
00:40:42 but otherwise I firmly believe
00:40:45 that the medium to long term outlook is very robust.
00:40:49 And this is one of the best opportunities
00:40:50 to buy HDFC Bank because if you look at the branch profile,
00:40:55 53% of the branches are in semi-urban and rural.
00:41:00 I believe that is where the growth lies.
00:41:02 And second, this super performance
00:41:05 of small and mid cap cannot continue for long.
00:41:08 Somewhere you will see reversal
00:41:10 and that should be steep and sudden.
00:41:13 So therefore, this is a time to have a tilt
00:41:16 towards large cap stocks like HDFC.
00:41:18 The last reason, but most importantly,
00:41:20 the industry tailwind is also there.
00:41:23 The credit growth is around 15%,
00:41:25 which is around a 10 year record high level.
00:41:27 The quality of asset also the best in the last 10 years.
00:41:31 And India's growth story of 7% for FY25
00:41:34 also will help the banking industry
00:41:36 to continue to maintain growth momentum.
00:41:39 So therefore, I believe firmly
00:41:41 that this is a great opportunity
00:41:43 to increase the exposure to HDFC Bank.
00:41:46 - That's a fair point, Mr. Chokalingam.
00:41:48 In fact, I'm going to be curious to look
00:41:50 at the FII holding at the end of the current quarter.
00:41:55 Of course, we'll have to wait for a little while
00:41:56 for that to pan out,
00:41:57 but 52% or odd was the end of December number.
00:42:02 And there seemingly has been a lot of delivery-based selling
00:42:05 by foreign institutions.
00:42:06 So we'll have to see how that pans out.
00:42:08 We spoke to Dinshaw Irani earlier in the day
00:42:10 and got his view on HDFC Bank as well.
00:42:13 And he is sanguine about the bank.
00:42:16 In fact, he's considering that the current selling
00:42:20 is a little bit overdone.
00:42:22 Listen to what he had to say.
00:42:23 - I think the kind of punishment
00:42:28 that they're allowed to HDFC Bank
00:42:30 for not having garnered deposits
00:42:32 to the extent that the market was expecting
00:42:35 was a bit too much.
00:42:36 I think it's basically now cheaper than ICICI Bank,
00:42:40 which has never been the case ever
00:42:42 initially for HDFC Bank.
00:42:43 And look at the franchise,
00:42:45 straight into the franchise.
00:42:45 I think that you cannot ignore.
00:42:48 If this bank has a problem,
00:42:51 and by the way, I was told that probably
00:42:54 for the monetary decision not to raise deposits
00:42:57 so aggressively because they already had
00:42:59 quite a heavy liquidity in the system as such.
00:43:02 And they weren't too keen on raising money
00:43:05 to that extent on such a negation.
00:43:07 So basically I think if the strength of the franchise
00:43:11 is on the question, then obviously,
00:43:12 if I'm talking about the HDFC Bank franchise,
00:43:15 then obviously the whole sector comes under the question.
00:43:17 I still remember a statement made by Aditya Puri long back
00:43:21 that if I were to lose my shirt,
00:43:23 the others would be running around without clothes.
00:43:25 So obviously you can imagine the strength
00:43:27 of the franchise out here.
00:43:30 - That's HDFC Bank.
00:43:32 So, and we'll take a view from Samit Chauhan on the banks,
00:43:34 but just before we talk about HDFC Bank individually,
00:43:37 PNB announced its Q3 earnings as well,
00:43:39 and Pragati Johnson to talk about those numbers too.
00:43:41 Pragati, good afternoon.
00:43:42 - Hi, good afternoon.
00:43:43 Yes, you're right.
00:43:44 PNB has just announced its Q3 earnings
00:43:46 and a very interesting set of numbers if you have to see,
00:43:49 because the profit is up threefold.
00:43:51 In absolute terms, it's up 253.4%,
00:43:55 which is a very high and significantly high number.
00:43:57 And this profit is up on the back of lower provisions.
00:44:01 Now, a quick overview of some very important figures
00:44:04 in any bank's earnings, I'll quickly give it to you.
00:44:07 As I said, the net profit is up threefold.
00:44:09 The gross NP and the net NPAs have also fallen,
00:44:12 which means the asset quality of the bank has improved.
00:44:15 The gross NPAs are at 6.24%.
00:44:17 The net NPA are at 0.96%.
00:44:20 The net interest income or the core income of the bank
00:44:23 is up just about 12.1%.
00:44:25 Overall, a positive set of numbers.
00:44:27 The interesting bit here is that the bank has said
00:44:30 that provisions other than tax and contingencies
00:44:33 have fallen 41% year on year,
00:44:35 which is a significant drop in these provisions
00:44:37 because the other provisions which the bank makes
00:44:40 for the NPAs and it has also shown them in their PNL
00:44:43 have fallen just about 24%.
00:44:46 They have also explained that due to the write back
00:44:48 of the NPI provision that has happened,
00:44:51 the total provisions and contingencies appear lower
00:44:54 than those made for the NPAs bid.
00:44:56 Another very interesting thing that has been seen
00:44:59 across banks in this quarter is the provisions
00:45:02 made against AIF investments.
00:45:04 Most of the banks have come out with their numbers
00:45:06 and so has Punjab National Bank.
00:45:07 Punjab National Bank has said that it has made provisions
00:45:09 of 113.7 crore rupees against the AIF investments
00:45:13 and that's what we know so far on the numbers.
00:45:16 I'll keep coming back to you with more updates.
00:45:18 All right, thanks so much, Pragati,
00:45:19 for bringing us those details.
00:45:21 I do wanna get a view from Sameeth on HDFC Bank.
00:45:24 Now, we were talking about the fundamentals
00:45:27 and we got Dinshaw's view as well,
00:45:30 but Sameeth, on the charts,
00:45:31 there's frenetic selling and delivery-based selling.
00:45:35 What are the charts indicating as to what levels
00:45:37 to watch out from this point?
00:45:39 See, I mean, my opening remarks also are due to
00:45:44 that the entire banking space looks quite nervous
00:45:47 and the kind of selling that we witness in HDFC Bank,
00:45:51 on the deliverable volumes also that we track,
00:45:56 we have witnessed massive selling in HDFC Bank
00:45:58 and that has created the entire chaos
00:46:00 in most of the private banking space.
00:46:03 So, as we expect a bank to do slide towards
00:46:07 44, 500, 44, 200,
00:46:11 obviously, HDFC would contribute to this
00:46:15 extended correction,
00:46:16 wherein we would expect this stock heading towards
00:46:19 its major support cluster of 1350 or even 1320.
00:46:24 So, after a long time,
00:46:25 after nearly 15 odd months,
00:46:27 this particular stock has reached its important support
00:46:31 of 1440, 1450 on a closing basis.
00:46:34 So, today being the weekly close,
00:46:36 this particular stock is likely to close
00:46:38 below that important level.
00:46:40 So, from here on,
00:46:41 sub-1400 levels are very much on track to be coming.
00:46:44 - So, at what point would you be confident
00:46:47 in hitting the buy call
00:46:49 based on the technical indicators, Amit?
00:46:51 - See, for that particular development,
00:46:54 you need to have some sort of a reversal sign
00:46:56 either on the daily time frame chart
00:46:59 or some sort of a reversal pattern.
00:47:01 But as of now,
00:47:02 I don't see that important development happening.
00:47:05 So, there's a major cluster around 1275, 1300.
00:47:09 So, in case if the stock slides toward it
00:47:12 before giving any kind of a reversal sign,
00:47:16 that's the level wherein one should reassess the situation.
00:47:20 - I wanted to pull up ACC intraday chart as well.
00:47:25 This is a stock that is doing quite well
00:47:27 from the cement pack.
00:47:28 And the Q3 numbers are in.
00:47:30 In fact, they came in not too long back.
00:47:34 And there is a significant increase in the pack number.
00:47:37 It is a four-fold jump, I believe.
00:47:39 And margins have come in significantly higher.
00:47:42 In fact, better than expected as well.
00:47:44 The consensus estimates had pegged it at 14%.
00:47:47 And the margins have come in at 18.4%.
00:47:50 The revenue is up as much as 8.3%.
00:47:53 So, much to speak about with regard to the cement space
00:47:56 and particularly with ACC.
00:47:58 But I'm curious about what Mr. Chokalingam
00:48:01 made of the numbers.
00:48:02 What is your view on the fundamentals?
00:48:04 And how would you look at ACC
00:48:07 as part of the overall cement pack, Mr. Chokalingam?
00:48:11 - Yeah, I just looked at the performance.
00:48:13 I mean, definitely it is very impressive.
00:48:15 Though there is a marginal growth in the revenue,
00:48:17 the margin improvement is substantial.
00:48:20 And you still look very cheap.
00:48:22 If you see the expected profit for FY24.
00:48:27 So, definitely one should hold on.
00:48:30 Even if there is any marginal fall,
00:48:32 I think one can buy ACC.
00:48:35 - Okay, fair point.
00:48:37 Another stock, and we spoke about this just a short while
00:48:40 back on the volume buzzer segment.
00:48:42 This is rights.
00:48:43 And this is a counter that is up nearly 17% at this juncture.
00:48:47 Sameeth, some large trades seemingly,
00:48:50 but what are you looking at on the charts
00:48:52 with regard to rights?
00:48:53 - See, this stock is enjoying its massive turnaround
00:48:59 since last many months now.
00:49:00 There's a series of higher highs, higher lows
00:49:02 can be observed in all time frame charts.
00:49:05 Importantly, the recent rally is backed by
00:49:08 much, much stronger volumes.
00:49:10 If you see its previous volumes,
00:49:12 we can see at least four to five times surge
00:49:15 in its daily volume.
00:49:17 So, overall, this rally is backed by stronger volumes
00:49:20 so that clearly provides some sort of credence to the move.
00:49:23 And hence, we would expect continuation of this move.
00:49:25 So, immediate level would be around 700.
00:49:27 But soon you would expect the stock
00:49:29 even heading towards 720, which is the projection
00:49:32 since this stock has already entered in the market.
00:49:35 - I wanna talk about JSW Steel as well.
00:49:38 The consolidated revenues have come in
00:49:40 at just about 42,000 crore rupees.
00:49:43 EBITDA has come in at 7,180 crore rupees.
00:49:46 It's a growth on a, I believe it's better than expected,
00:49:49 in fact, and the consolidated margins
00:49:52 have also come in better than expected.
00:49:53 In fact, as much as 150 basis points
00:49:57 are thereabouts better than expected.
00:49:58 7% growth in the top line number.
00:50:01 We had Tata Steel numbers also not too long back.
00:50:05 Mr. Chokalingam, I know that I've not given you
00:50:07 too many numbers to speak of,
00:50:09 but seemingly it's a strong set of numbers from JSW Steel,
00:50:13 at least on the margin picture,
00:50:15 it has come in ahead of expectations.
00:50:17 What did you make of one, Tata Steel,
00:50:19 and also now JSW Steel?
00:50:22 - No doubt, both of them have come out
00:50:24 with decent results, quite attractive.
00:50:26 But somehow I am a little nervous on the Steel pack
00:50:29 because Chinese growth has slowed down
00:50:32 and 24th calendar year also,
00:50:34 it is expected to be down further significantly.
00:50:38 And the property sector,
00:50:41 this crisis is still continuing there.
00:50:43 I believe Chinese economy will be a major crucial factor
00:50:48 because they import more than $2 trillion worth of goods
00:50:52 every year from the rest of the world.
00:50:54 So, and also they've consumed a predominant portion
00:50:57 of the global production of Steel and other metals.
00:51:00 So therefore I would assess what is happening
00:51:03 in Chinese economy in the next three months,
00:51:06 then I would take a call on Steel
00:51:08 and other non-ferrous metal.
00:51:09 Otherwise, there are a lot of sectors growing
00:51:12 in the country like automobile, banks,
00:51:14 so one can focus on those sectors
00:51:16 where there are no known major risks.
00:51:19 - Understood.
00:51:20 Anything to add on the technicals
00:51:23 with regard to the metal pack?
00:51:26 Of course, this is a cyclical play
00:51:28 and we tend to have a big move
00:51:31 whenever you have the underlying prices move, right?
00:51:33 Your commodity prices have a bearing
00:51:35 on these prices as well.
00:51:37 Sameet, but what can you talk about
00:51:38 with regard to JSW Steel and Tata Steel?
00:51:40 - Yes, see, the entire metal space has done well,
00:51:46 you know, at least in last three trading sessions,
00:51:49 but still, you know, it does not give that conviction
00:51:53 to go long at current level.
00:51:54 You would rather wait for some sort of follow-up
00:51:56 in the coming week itself.
00:51:57 JSW Steel is placed around its important support.
00:52:01 So, you know, 200 is simple moving average.
00:52:03 It's placed around 780 and the stock made
00:52:07 a precisely low around it yesterday session.
00:52:10 So we would rather wait for a breakout
00:52:12 to happen beyond 830, that's an important resistance.
00:52:15 So once the stock surpasses 830,
00:52:17 we can see the stock completing its recent retracement,
00:52:21 and then probably we could see the stock
00:52:22 heading towards 860, 870 kind of zone.
00:52:25 But as of now, we will wait for some sort of follow-up move
00:52:28 and the level to work out for around 830.
00:52:32 - All right.
00:52:33 I'm also curious about Metro brand.
00:52:36 It's gaining quite a bit,
00:52:38 and this is also on the back of volumes, right?
00:52:40 So you have this, if I'm not mistaken,
00:52:43 the volumes are eight times the 30-day average,
00:52:46 and it's up about nearly 10% at this juncture.
00:52:51 Mr. Chokalingam, on the fundamentals though,
00:52:53 what do you make of this particular company?
00:52:55 - Oh, it's a leading brand doing very well,
00:52:59 no doubt about it.
00:53:01 But to a large extent, it is in price,
00:53:03 maybe for short-term investors and traders,
00:53:05 one can buy because stock also corrected
00:53:07 a little more than 20% from the 52-week high.
00:53:11 So for short-term investors,
00:53:12 maybe a good stock for traders and short-term.
00:53:16 Otherwise, for long-term outlook,
00:53:19 I would wait for the stock to fall below 1000.
00:53:21 - Got it.
00:53:24 I want to also talk about Balkrishna Industries.
00:53:28 Losing ground in trade today on the back of earnings,
00:53:30 and this is despite a decent set of numbers, I would think.
00:53:35 Would you think that profit booking
00:53:38 is at play right now, Mr. Chokalingam?
00:53:40 Did you have a chance to look at the numbers?
00:53:42 - Yes, certainly, I looked at the numbers,
00:53:44 quite impressive only, no doubt about it.
00:53:48 Probably, as you mentioned,
00:53:50 the profit booking must be happening
00:53:51 because from the bottom, it has risen predominantly.
00:53:54 And secondly, they have a major share of market
00:53:58 from European economy.
00:54:00 Which is expected to either grow stagnate
00:54:05 or fall into recession.
00:54:06 That fear is there very much.
00:54:08 And that would definitely affect Balkrishna,
00:54:10 unlike other type players who cater to automobiles
00:54:13 and cater to primarily domestic market.
00:54:16 This one has a substantial exposure to European market.
00:54:19 So these are the two possible reasons
00:54:21 for the stock to correct.
00:54:23 So better one can wait.
00:54:25 I mean, in case it falls another 10% or so,
00:54:28 then one can consider the stock.
00:54:29 - You know, we took your view, Mr. Chokalingam
00:54:32 on the IT pack and indeed the frontline IT companies.
00:54:36 But I'm curious what Sameeth has to say about today's move
00:54:39 and indeed the recent moves.
00:54:41 Tech Mahindra, of course, getting beaten down
00:54:43 on the back of earnings.
00:54:44 But what about the other players?
00:54:46 And what are you seeing in the space?
00:54:48 Do you avoid, would you sell at this juncture
00:54:51 for fear of losing further ground in the IT space, Sameeth?
00:54:56 - See, with the near term,
00:54:58 you would expect some consolidation now.
00:55:00 And around the Diwali times,
00:55:03 we were buyer in the entire IT space
00:55:05 and our preferred picks were Infosys
00:55:08 and HCL Tech in the larger names.
00:55:11 And we would continue to hold that positive stance
00:55:14 in the entire IT space.
00:55:15 But since they've already rallied a fair bet
00:55:18 nearly 15 million odd percent in the last three months,
00:55:22 we would expect some consolidation
00:55:24 before assuming it's the next like,
00:55:25 of the rally.
00:55:26 So as of now, we would expect some consolidation
00:55:29 happening in the all IT names.
00:55:31 Since, you know, mid-cap IT has already given massive moves
00:55:36 in last few months,
00:55:38 you would expect some profit booking there.
00:55:40 But overall, you know, on any dip,
00:55:42 this entire space is a buy on dip kind of space.
00:55:46 So we would expect buying happening at low levels
00:55:48 and our preferred pick at current level
00:55:51 would remain Infosys and HCL.
00:55:53 - Okay.
00:55:54 You know, gentlemen, as we were speaking,
00:55:55 we've seen a sharp run up in the bank Nifty.
00:55:59 Let's pull up the intraday chart in fact,
00:56:01 and that will indicate to you
00:56:03 the sharpness of the recovery.
00:56:04 In fact, we're very close to,
00:56:06 yesterday's close on the bank Nifty,
00:56:09 just about a 10th of a percent or so.
00:56:11 And in fact, let's look at also the contributors
00:56:13 if we can possibly pull that up.
00:56:15 You have BNB that just posted its results
00:56:20 that is contributing to some of the gains
00:56:22 and ICICI Bank perhaps also leading
00:56:24 to some of the gains there.
00:56:26 HDFC perhaps has also come off the day's low.
00:56:29 Let's also pull up HDFC Bank's intraday chart
00:56:32 and see where it's currently trading.
00:56:34 And it has in fact,
00:56:35 come off quite substantially
00:56:37 from the low point of the day.
00:56:38 It is trading now with cuts of about a percent or so,
00:56:41 whereas earlier it was trading with cuts of about 1.8,
00:56:45 1.7% or thereabouts.
00:56:47 Samit, what do you make of this late action?
00:56:49 I guess, a powerful the course on an expiry date.
00:56:52 I think you might just be on mute, Samit.
00:57:00 - Yes, so we've already seen a massive shorting
00:57:05 in this entire space since last six or the trading session.
00:57:09 So yes, after reaching its important cluster
00:57:11 of 44,500 monthly expiry is there.
00:57:15 So we are seeing some short covering
00:57:17 in this space, but still,
00:57:20 at high level this space is likely to face
00:57:23 some selling pressure and till the time it does not surpass
00:57:26 46,000, 46,200 on closing basis,
00:57:30 we would expect some selling pressure to happen.
00:57:32 - Mr. Chokalingam, I haven't asked you
00:57:36 about your top picks at this juncture.
00:57:40 Samit on the technicals has suggested
00:57:42 and advocated caution at this point.
00:57:45 You've seen some bit of the earnings play out
00:57:48 to the entire private banking pack, for example, the IT pack,
00:57:52 but there's still lots to talk about.
00:57:53 Of course, Reliance Industries also behind us now.
00:57:56 What do you make of it so far
00:57:58 and what are your top picks at this juncture?
00:58:00 - I would, I have been suggesting that 50%
00:58:04 of the equity assets should be in two large caps.
00:58:07 Another, you know, 50, 20% cash and gold ETF.
00:58:10 Only the balance 30% should be in small and mid cap.
00:58:12 This is a short term outlook.
00:58:14 So with this in perspective,
00:58:16 because I'm very nervous on small cap and mid cap space.
00:58:20 So I mean, I kept this asset allocation strategy in mind.
00:58:24 I would suggest ITC, Reliance Industries and Jio
00:58:28 in the large cap segments.
00:58:29 And in the small cap, Indoco Remedies,
00:58:33 Tata, Torch, GBK, Nesco and Elpro.
00:58:38 These are the small cap stocks.
00:58:40 Yes, I would never say zero small cap exposure,
00:58:43 but be cautious over all asset allocation
00:58:46 and show that not more than 30, 40%
00:58:48 is allocated to small and mid cap.
00:58:50 And these are the four stocks.
00:58:51 I believe that they are very great value play.
00:58:55 - Very quick view.
00:58:56 And I'm actually wondering about this
00:58:58 from a portfolio standpoint as well, Mr. Chokalingam.
00:59:01 Would you hold on to any cash at this juncture?
00:59:04 - Certainly yes.
00:59:05 Minimum 10 to 20%, including around 5% exposure to gold ETF.
00:59:10 This is a time to generate cash
00:59:12 because in terms of meltdown can happen in a small cap.
00:59:15 Now two weeks or two months or one quarter, we don't know.
00:59:18 But whenever it happens, it will be steep.
00:59:20 And that time we can find a lot of appealing buy.
00:59:23 So this is a time to generate cash anywhere
00:59:25 from 10 to 20% based on the investors risk profile.
00:59:28 - All right, thanks so much, Mr. Chokalingam,
00:59:30 as well as Sameet for joining in on today's program.
00:59:34 Pleasure speaking with you as always.
00:59:36 We're drawing to a close on today's session, of course,
00:59:40 and indeed the week's activity.
00:59:42 Tomorrow is going to be a holiday
00:59:43 on account of Republic Day.
00:59:46 But you have the texture of the market
00:59:48 that has changed just a tad bit
00:59:49 towards the end of the session.
00:59:51 You have a little bit of buying that played out
00:59:54 in the last half an hour or so.
00:59:55 The Nifty 50 gaining ground on the back of HDFC Bank,
01:00:00 of course, which is off the low point of the day.
01:00:02 And you have the Bank Nifty that's coming very close
01:00:06 to the close yesterday.
01:00:08 Of course, it might just end with cuts
01:00:10 of about two tenths of a percent or thereabouts.
01:00:12 The broader markets are looking relatively resilient.
01:00:15 You have the mid-cap index that's down
01:00:17 about four tenths of a percent or half a percent or so,
01:00:19 but the small cap index will likely go home
01:00:22 with gains of about half a percent or thereabouts.
01:00:25 Now, let's also pull up the advanced decline ratio
01:00:28 to give you a perspective of how things have been.
01:00:31 We were more or less even Stevens
01:00:32 and that has changed just a tad bit
01:00:35 towards the end of the session
01:00:36 where you have more advances and in fact,
01:00:38 that could in fact be what you're seeing
01:00:42 from the broader end of the spectrum
01:00:44 where you're seeing a half a percent gains
01:00:46 for the small cap index as well.
01:00:47 Let's look at the heat map.
01:00:49 This is more or less the same,
01:00:50 but you have a few movers that have changed the texture
01:00:55 of the market towards the end, as I was pointing out.
01:00:58 Right on the top, you have Bajaj Auto,
01:00:59 which arguably is the stock of the day,
01:01:01 both on the back of earnings
01:01:03 and also the fine print of the three-wheeler sales,
01:01:08 which led to a margin expansion.
01:01:10 That's come in about 20% or thereabouts
01:01:13 and positive for the stock there.
01:01:14 Adani Ports looking good at the top,
01:01:16 NTPC as well as Coal India.
01:01:18 In fact, quite a few of the PSU pack
01:01:21 have done well in trade today.
01:01:23 IndusInd, ICICI Bank from the banking pack
01:01:25 also looking good.
01:01:26 Reliance Industries contributing quite a bit
01:01:29 towards the end.
01:01:30 About a half an hour or so back,
01:01:32 you had gains of about four-tenths of a percent,
01:01:34 but it's going home with gains of about nine-tenths
01:01:36 of a percent or closer to a percent or so
01:01:39 and leading to quite a bit of gains on the benchmark
01:01:42 or pulling it back towards neutral territory.
01:01:45 On the losing end, you have Tech Mahindra,
01:01:47 which is the worst performer.
01:01:48 That too is off the low point of the day,
01:01:51 but losing about 6% or so in trade.
01:01:54 Cipla dropping about 3%,
01:01:56 Bharti Airtel, Daviz Laboratories from the pharma pack
01:01:59 losing ground.
01:02:00 LTI Mindtree, of course, from the IT pack.
01:02:02 The IT pack as a whole, an underperformer in trade today.
01:02:06 Data Consumer also losing over 2%.
01:02:09 And then you have the likes of HCL Tech as well
01:02:11 that has lost ground.
01:02:12 From the private banking pack, you have HDFC Bank,
01:02:15 which is more or less now,
01:02:17 not at the bottom end of the spectrum,
01:02:19 but you have it more or less in the middle of the pack,
01:02:23 losing about a percent or so.
01:02:25 At one point, as I've pointed out,
01:02:26 it was down about 1.8%
01:02:29 and it was leading to quite a bit of a drag
01:02:31 on the benchmark index.
01:02:33 That has changed just a tad bit.
01:02:35 You have Maruti Suzuki also,
01:02:36 that's down about a percent or so.
01:02:39 From the auto pack, of course, you have M&M as well,
01:02:42 that is doing reasonably well in trade today.
01:02:46 Grasim, Bajaj Finsev, JSW Steel,
01:02:48 which reported its numbers doing reasonably well as well.
01:02:52 But that brings us to the end of this particular edition
01:02:54 of India Market Close.
01:02:56 It's been an absolute pleasure bringing it to you.
01:02:58 Lots of action coming up over the course of the day,
01:03:00 so do stay tuned.
01:03:02 And this is NDTV Profit.
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